I wouldn't be surprised if what you describe is what was being referred to when one or more of the Big 12 presidents said expanding last fall would have precluded other options.

(03-07-2017 01:18 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  American
Wish list
Air Force
Army
Boise State
BYU
San Diego State

Realistically:
Wichita State
VCU
Southern Miss
Marshall
Rice
Old Domininion

Excuse me?

(03-07-2017 01:36 AM)panite Wrote:  No one is expanding at this time. The GOR has all the P5 Conferences locked down until around 2025. The B-12 has decided to remain at 10 with the ability to have a CCG now with 10 teams. It was the only conference with room foe expansion which would set off a domino affect through the G-5 conferences. The only G5 conference that would entertain expansion would be the AAC with BYU and Army on the radar and neither of those schools are joining at this time so the AAC will remain pat. Adding more mouths to feed at this time would take current TV contract money and split it 14 ways instead of 12. BYU and Army are the only schools that would help bump the next contract especially with all of the turmoil currently going on at ESPN. Adding BB schools like Witchita St, Dayton, and VC would only add mouths to feed too without a TV pay hike and puts the AAC back in the same position as the old BE days. The AAC should have offered Nova D-1 FB and paid a subsidy to G'town to help their FB expenses in the Patriot League, to convince them to pressure the C7 to stay with the old BE if it is trying to head into a hybrid again.

You must have missed the Big East's offer to Villanova to upgrade and join for football, and Villanova's half-hearted proposal ("We don't want to do this, we're considering this to keep the conference together, and by the way it just won't work"), along with Pitt, WVU and Rutgers outright rejecting Villanova's plan.

There was no pressuring the C7 to stay. Basketball was getting diluted too much to keep football alive -- a problem for a sport that 5 of the 7 don't sponsor. It borders on miraculous that the Big East stayed together as long as it did.

(03-07-2017 08:27 AM)bullet Wrote:  Never say Never. Finances rule all. Now it would have to be a pretty big gap and such a gap doesn't exist. But Arizona and Arizona St. aren't really happy with the Pac's financial situation now.

At that point, might as well just merge the whole PAC with the Big Ten, so everyone can share the massive wealth.

(03-06-2017 03:53 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  MAC
Two possibilities, either West or East. But only if they lose some schools. Which direction they go probably depends on what schools leave.
East: Albany, Stony Brook, UMass
West: the 4 Dakota schools

The "Dakotas" are not going to the MAC. And the MAC has far better options than the three you listed in the east.

Just take FCS schools and the MAC can take UNI and/or Illinois State in the west. In the east, James Madison, Youngstown State or Delaware.

SDSU and NDSU have no where to go which is why neither will be moving up to FBS any time soon. That could change in a decade if the P5 consolidate pushing out the G5 or the Montana schools and a few others decide to move up and the NCAA allows for the development of a new G5 conference that spans the Northern Rockies through the Northern Great Plains. Don't see either happening but who would have thought Nebraska would be in the Big 10 and Texas A&M in the SEC.

(03-06-2017 07:19 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(03-06-2017 05:57 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC:
Old Dominion
UMass
Southern Mississippi
Dayton
Wichita State
VCU

ACC:
Notre Dame
Navy
Texas
Oklahoma
Notre Dame as full member.

Big 10:
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Clemson
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Florida State

Big 12:
New Mexico
BYU
Colorado State
Boise State
Houston
Memphis
UCF
USF
East Carolina
Cincinnati

C-USA:
New Mexico State
Missouri State
James Madison
South Alabama
Arkansas State
Georgia State

MAC:
Northern Iowa
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Youngstown State (backup just in case they lose several schools in Ohio.)
VCU (basketball)
Richmond
UMass.
Delaware
Dayton (basketball)
Indiana State
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Marshall
Eastern Kentucky
Wichita State (basketball)
The MAC wanted to upgrade their basketball when they still had Temple in the conference.

MWC:
UTEP
BYU
Montana
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona
Portland State
Eastern Washington
Cal.-Davis
Cal. Poly
UTSA
West Texas A&M in the future.
MWC does not have much choice to choose from but to get FCS schools.

PAC 12:
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Hawaii (been looking at them for a long time to expand towards the Asian market.)
New Mexico
UNLV
San Diego State
Boise State
Scott said that the backup plan if the Texhoma four refuse to join them that San Diego State and Boise State would be invited since they are impressed that both schools have improved on their athletic facilities and their academics.

SEC:
Oklahoma
NC State
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati or Toledo? They are in neighboring state.
Texas A&M will block Texas from joining.

SBC:
Almost got Florida A&M to join.
North Florida
Jacksonville State to replace South Alabama.
Eastern Kentucky
Chattanooga
Kennesaw State
James Madison
Missouri State
Central Arkansas to replace Arkansas State if they leave?
Jackson State

You accidentally listed ND twice for the ACC.

Notre Dame is so good they are going to have two teams. Notre Dame Blue, Notre Dame Gold. Will finish first and second every year, in all sports.

(03-06-2017 07:19 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(03-06-2017 05:57 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC:
Old Dominion
UMass
Southern Mississippi
Dayton
Wichita State
VCU

ACC:
Notre Dame
Navy
Texas
Oklahoma
Notre Dame as full member.

Big 10:
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Clemson
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Florida State

Big 12:
New Mexico
BYU
Colorado State
Boise State
Houston
Memphis
UCF
USF
East Carolina
Cincinnati

C-USA:
New Mexico State
Missouri State
James Madison
South Alabama
Arkansas State
Georgia State

MAC:
Northern Iowa
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Youngstown State (backup just in case they lose several schools in Ohio.)
VCU (basketball)
Richmond
UMass.
Delaware
Dayton (basketball)
Indiana State
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Marshall
Eastern Kentucky
Wichita State (basketball)
The MAC wanted to upgrade their basketball when they still had Temple in the conference.

MWC:
UTEP
BYU
Montana
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona
Portland State
Eastern Washington
Cal.-Davis
Cal. Poly
UTSA
West Texas A&M in the future.
MWC does not have much choice to choose from but to get FCS schools.

PAC 12:
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Hawaii (been looking at them for a long time to expand towards the Asian market.)
New Mexico
UNLV
San Diego State
Boise State
Scott said that the backup plan if the Texhoma four refuse to join them that San Diego State and Boise State would be invited since they are impressed that both schools have improved on their athletic facilities and their academics.

SEC:
Oklahoma
NC State
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati or Toledo? They are in neighboring state.
Texas A&M will block Texas from joining.

SBC:
Almost got Florida A&M to join.
North Florida
Jacksonville State to replace South Alabama.
Eastern Kentucky
Chattanooga
Kennesaw State
James Madison
Missouri State
Central Arkansas to replace Arkansas State if they leave?
Jackson State

You accidentally listed ND twice for the ACC.

Notre Dame is so good they are going to have two teams. Notre Dame Blue, Notre Dame Gold. Will finish first and second every year, in all sports.

(03-07-2017 12:27 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think if you are looking long-term, the wrong approach is to think in incremental terms.
Conferences as we currently think of them were created in the 1980's when they began negotiating their own television deals. Before that the role of a conference was to provide a schedule framework, hire officials, keep stats and hand out awards.

The modern conference is an economic engine and in the grand scheme that's a new thing. For a long time the NCAA did little other than gather stats and operate as a rules standardization body. TV money changed that

If we look at the business world consolidation is pretty much the norm. I had a four year note on my old pickup that went through three banks because of consolidation.

There is no reason except conventional thinking that the P5 couldn't become the P3 or P2 or P1 with teams playing basically the same schedule as they currently play but a smaller number of entities negotiating media rights and post-season events.

The Big 10 and Pac-12 could consolidate their operations, with all 26 teams gathering at the league meetings to vote and one entity managing media, post-season events, press releases, etc., but continuing to function as two different competitive groups like the National League and American League do in baseball.

I tend to think that is the real fate of the Big XII. The Big XII simply can't add anyone who increases the pool enough to make expansion viable, but the Big XII merged into B1G or Pac-12 or (less likely) the SEC to become a unified economic unit could be a force. Imagine the Big XII as an economic part of the Pac-12 with a single entity selling the product with a Big XII-Pac-12 basketball challenge and every Big XII playing a non-conference game against a Pac-12 every year in football. Going to the networks to sell a package that has Texas, OU, USC, Washington football and Kansas State and UCLA hoops and probably a third less in administrative costs than the two independently.

I agree with this entirely. The conferences have been able to maximize revenue by getting the distributors (FOX, ESPN, etc) into bidding skirmishes. As soon as these entities back away from the bidding skirmishes (and that might be as early as 2023) and TV revenue stagnates, those conferences with autonomy (B1G, PAC, BigXII) will look to circumvent the cable/OTA middlemen and go directly to streaming outlets. If the price is right, I think we'll see some merger/acquisition among these three conferences. With the B1G in the driver's seat, acquisitions that leave behind some BigXII and PAC members seem plausible.

(03-06-2017 05:57 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC:
Old Dominion
UMass
Southern Mississippi
Dayton
Wichita State
VCU

ACC:
Notre Dame
Navy
Texas
Oklahoma
Notre Dame as full member.

Big 10:
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Clemson
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Florida State

Big 12:
New Mexico
BYU
Colorado State
Boise State
Houston
Memphis
UCF
USF
East Carolina
Cincinnati

C-USA:
New Mexico State
Missouri State
James Madison
South Alabama
Arkansas State
Georgia State

MAC:
Northern Iowa
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Youngstown State (backup just in case they lose several schools in Ohio.)
VCU (basketball)
Richmond
UMass.
Delaware
Dayton (basketball)
Indiana State
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Marshall
Eastern Kentucky
Wichita State (basketball)
The MAC wanted to upgrade their basketball when they still had Temple in the conference.

MWC:
UTEP
BYU
Montana
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona
Portland State
Eastern Washington
Cal.-Davis
Cal. Poly
UTSA
West Texas A&M in the future.
MWC does not have much choice to choose from but to get FCS schools.

PAC 12:
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Hawaii (been looking at them for a long time to expand towards the Asian market.)
New Mexico
UNLV
San Diego State
Boise State
Scott said that the backup plan if the Texhoma four refuse to join them that San Diego State and Boise State would be invited since they are impressed that both schools have improved on their athletic facilities and their academics.

SEC:
Oklahoma
NC State
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati or Toledo? They are in neighboring state.
Texas A&M will block Texas from joining.

SBC:
Almost got Florida A&M to join.
North Florida
Jacksonville State to replace South Alabama.
Eastern Kentucky
Chattanooga
Kennesaw State
James Madison
Missouri State
Central Arkansas to replace Arkansas State if they leave?
Jackson State

el oh el

(03-06-2017 04:36 PM)FloridaJag Wrote:  

(03-06-2017 10:58 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Other than the recent news of the American looking at Wichita State, VCU and Dayton as non-football members, FBS Conference Expansion has been fairly quiet since the Big 12 drama in the Fall. Considering that, which programs do you feel are targets, long-term, of the respective conferences? With all of the TV deals approaching an end in the next several years, I'm sure conferences are looking long-term at who they might be able to add for the next expansion wave.

ACC
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Notre Dame (Full)
Texas
West Virginia


Big 12
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Nebraska

B1G
Florida State
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Texas
Virginia

PAC-12
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech

SEC
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Texas
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

American
Air Force
Army
Boise State
BYU
San Diego State

Big East
Davidson
Dayton
Richmond
Saint Louis

Feel free to make your own list. It must be close to offseason...

ACC

Notre Dame (full)
Connecticut

That gives them 16 teams and improves Football and Basketball. Notre Dame already plays 5 ACC games in football.

Big 12

Cincinnati
Houston
Memphis
Southern Methodist

Brings conference to 14 members and adds Ohio and Tennessee as recruitment grounds

North

Cincinnati
Iowa State
Memphis
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Southern Methodist
West Virginia

South

Baylor
Houston
Texas
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
Kansas
Kansas State


AAC Adds Army, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, MTU


North

East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Navy
Army
Tulsa
Temple

South

Central Florida
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
South Florida
Tulane


CUSA

CUSA probably would pick up New Mexico State, Missouri State, Lamar

East

Louisiana Tech
Marshall
Missouri State
Southern Mississippi
Western Kentucky
Old Dominion

West

Lamar
New Mexico
North Texas
Rice
Texas El Paso
Texas San Antonio

Sun Belt

The SBC adds UTA - Football, Kennesaw State, West Florida, North Florida and FGCU


East

Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina
Florida Gulf Coast
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Kennesaw State
North Florida

West

Arkansas State
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
South Alabama
Texas Arlington
Texas State
Troy
West Florida

Not sure who the next team would get an invite afterward, maybe one of the HBCUs.
Southern and Florida A&M are across the street from LSU and FSU, respectively. Don't see Texas Southern or Prairie View A&M. Maybe Jackson State.

Probably Jacksonville State and Tennessee Martin will get a second look.

However, this scenario all blows up when Oklahoma and Oklahoma State accept invites to the SEC.

We would be long gone...

Look at the NSF Herd rankings if you want to know who is a B1G or P12 fit.

https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/profiles/site?...ce&ds=herd

13 of 14 B1G schools rank in the top 50, in the top 6% of all institutions, and AAU members
8 of 12 Pac-12 are in the top 50, plus Colorado at #53 are in the top 6% of all institutions, and AAU members, except Utah

Texas (#18, top 4%, $650m) is the only B12 school in the above category.

B1G Nebraska is #79 (9%), 12 #68 Washington State (8%) and #86 Oregon State (10%) are still solid

If you extend "acceptable" down to this range you can add Kansas and Iowa State (#75 and #77 respectively, 9%, AAU) to the list, and Oklahoma (#88, 10%, $242m in 2015)

This is important when you speak "long term" as in 20+ years, because any school can go through a Rutgers era of stinking it up. You have to assume any school you add will be that for a decade. So the above matters.

Note: there are a half dozen intriguing G5 who have potential, but it's not a deep pool. Five of them were on the B12 "finalist" list: USF, Cincy, CSU, UConn, UCF (Rice and Tulane are smaller very highly selective schools, hence lower R&D spending yet AAU, BYU is another TCU in terms of zero research, and AF is not a research school, but high standards). Others like Hawaii, UMass, Temple, Buffalo, and UAB are not on anyone's expansion radar for obvious reasons.

(03-07-2017 02:56 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(03-07-2017 12:27 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think if you are looking long-term, the wrong approach is to think in incremental terms.
Conferences as we currently think of them were created in the 1980's when they began negotiating their own television deals. Before that the role of a conference was to provide a schedule framework, hire officials, keep stats and hand out awards.

The modern conference is an economic engine and in the grand scheme that's a new thing. For a long time the NCAA did little other than gather stats and operate as a rules standardization body. TV money changed that

If we look at the business world consolidation is pretty much the norm. I had a four year note on my old pickup that went through three banks because of consolidation.

There is no reason except conventional thinking that the P5 couldn't become the P3 or P2 or P1 with teams playing basically the same schedule as they currently play but a smaller number of entities negotiating media rights and post-season events.

The Big 10 and Pac-12 could consolidate their operations, with all 26 teams gathering at the league meetings to vote and one entity managing media, post-season events, press releases, etc., but continuing to function as two different competitive groups like the National League and American League do in baseball.

I tend to think that is the real fate of the Big XII. The Big XII simply can't add anyone who increases the pool enough to make expansion viable, but the Big XII merged into B1G or Pac-12 or (less likely) the SEC to become a unified economic unit could be a force. Imagine the Big XII as an economic part of the Pac-12 with a single entity selling the product with a Big XII-Pac-12 basketball challenge and every Big XII playing a non-conference game against a Pac-12 every year in football. Going to the networks to sell a package that has Texas, OU, USC, Washington football and Kansas State and UCLA hoops and probably a third less in administrative costs than the two independently.

I agree with this entirely. The conferences have been able to maximize revenue by getting the distributors (FOX, ESPN, etc) into bidding skirmishes. As soon as these entities back away from the bidding skirmishes (and that might be as early as 2023) and TV revenue stagnates, those conferences with autonomy (B1G, PAC, BigXII) will look to circumvent the cable/OTA middlemen and go directly to streaming outlets. If the price is right, I think we'll see some merger/acquisition among these three conferences. With the B1G in the driver's seat, acquisitions that leave behind some BigXII and PAC members seem plausible.

Realignment hasn't been that good for future deals in my opinion.
If you happen to have an OTA network (ABC/ESPN and FS1/Fox) you have to be able to deliver content of interest so local affiliates don't fill the time with infomercials by pre-empting your content and even on cable you don't want your cable network to be irrelevant in parts of the country.

SEC now has content with some appeal in the Midwest and Texas. Sure you want both SEC and Big XII to really reach a Texas audience but if you lose one, it's not the end of the world.

ACC is tough to beat on the east coast but with the pre-existing SEC presence in Florida, the expansion presence in South Carolina and the expansion of the Big Ten, it's not a complete bust if you lose the ACC.

The overlaps undermine the competing leagues.

Because of the financial differences between SEC/B1G compared to ACC/Big12/Pac-12 I think the logical starting point is cooperation between Big 12 and one or both of ACC and Pac-12 down the road. Pac-12 owning their network and Big 10 owning 49% of their network maybe that's where it happens but without the large exclusive zones some leverage is lost.

The ACC is in a tough position from a network standpoint. It has an excellent, highly populated footprint, actually the biggest of the P5 if you can believe it, but they only truly own the state's of North Carolna and Virginia. The rest of there's overlaps with the Big Ten and SEC. As long as as ESPN has a share of the other two in the media portfolio the ACC will always be expendable. This puts them in a hard place because to get a truly fair deal they really need to be with one of ESPN's competitors. The catch 22 is that if they leave the Mickey Mouse Club then ESPN encourages the properties they still control to raid them.