Next realignment will be a re-shuffling of the G5. Probably involves the AAC and then the MWC going to 14, followed by the MAC.

(02-12-2017 01:11 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I believe the CFP expands to 8 and there will be no major changes in the current conference memberships.

If the CFP expands to 8 teams with P5 autobids, then yes.

But an 8-team playoff is not so certain that I could say I believe it will happen right after the end of the current 12-year deal.

The current setup is certainly not the final shuffling. Really there isn't a single p-5 conference who has the number of members they actually want. 14 was never the end goal for the B1G or the SEC. 14.625 in the ACC is also not a logical end point. Big 12 is not happy at 10. And we know the PAC has looked at expanding in the past and is now the proud owner of a underperforming network that had failed to meet even lower financial expectations with no reason to think it will improve with the current membership.


So from the conferences perspective it's obvious that there will be more.

(02-12-2017 11:17 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Big 12 expands when it gets a network no one thought it would get (similar to the ACC) and grabs Cincy, BYU, UConn, and Houston to go to 14.
Pac-12 sits as it doesn't want to do anything stupid. MW invites SMU and Tulsa and they accept when they look at the weakened AAC. Navy then goes back to being an independent. The AAC is left with 6 teams. Army won't come, but the conference has options so they grab UMass, Southern Miss, Old Dominion, and App St. That leaves the AAC with 10, C-USA with 12, and the Sun Belt brings back NMSU as a full member to go to 10.

Southern Miss would likely want to stay in CUSA.

Houston and Cincy got shafted. I don't see the Big12 doing anything until those GOR run out. Then I see the Big12 turning into a P5 version of C-USA.

Oklahoma leaves first, for the SEC. Texas then announces it's getting the same Notre Dame deal from the ACC. They're set to leave the same year.

BYU and Houston are chosen as immediate replacements.

Kansas gets a call from the B1G and is set to leave the following year.

That's when it gets tricky. Does the B1G want Mizzou? WVU would fit in the SEC..

Does the Big 12(8) then further expand toward WVU or BYU? These dominos would fall for several years before anything stabilized.

(02-12-2017 09:18 PM)p23570 Wrote:  The current setup is certainly not the final shuffling. Really there isn't a single p-5 conference who has the number of members they actually want. 14 was never the end goal for the B1G or the SEC. 14.625 in the ACC is also not a logical end point. Big 12 is not happy at 10. And we know the PAC has looked at expanding in the past and is now the proud owner of a underperforming network that had failed to meet even lower financial expectations with no reason to think it will improve with the current membership.


So from the conferences perspective it's obvious that there will be more.

Actually 14 is a very good number of football teams for a conference, which is where 3 of the P5 are. The Big Ten has been studying the possibility of a 10 game schedule, which is ideal for a 14 team conference - 6 games within a division + 1 permanent rival from the other division + 3 teams from the 6 remaining from the other division, alternating inter division opponents each year. In basketball, 2 games against each division opponent annually + 7 games by playing each team from the other division once annually = 19 games. It's when a league gets bigger than 14 that it becomes impossible to function as a true conference.

As for the ACC being at 14.625, that's obviously not the case. It's 14 for football and 15 for everything else. That's not ideal, but clearly the ACC felt the the Irish were worth making an exception for. As a result they're talking about a 20 game conference basketball schedule.

(02-12-2017 04:57 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Jrj: you lost me after your 5th point. Those 1st 5 sound pretty reasonable.

Yeah, it goes off the rails at that point, but I do think that Mizzou is the one school whose movement is plausible and would create the conditions needed to split KU and OU from KSU/ISU (those conditions being a single opening in a P4/P5 conference with the threat of UT leaving the BigXII).

(02-12-2017 09:57 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(02-12-2017 09:18 PM)p23570 Wrote:  The current setup is certainly not the final shuffling. Really there isn't a single p-5 conference who has the number of members they actually want. 14 was never the end goal for the B1G or the SEC. 14.625 in the ACC is also not a logical end point. Big 12 is not happy at 10. And we know the PAC has looked at expanding in the past and is now the proud owner of a underperforming network that had failed to meet even lower financial expectations with no reason to think it will improve with the current membership.


So from the conferences perspective it's obvious that there will be more.

Actually 14 is a very good number of football teams for a conference, which is where 3 of the P5 are. The Big Ten has been studying the possibility of a 10 game schedule, which is ideal for a 14 team conference - 6 games within a division + 1 permanent rival from the other division + 3 teams from the 6 remaining from the other division, alternating inter division opponents each year. In basketball, 2 games against each division opponent annually + 7 games by playing each team from the other division once annually = 19 games. It's when a league gets bigger than 14 that it becomes impossible to function as a true conference.

As for the ACC being at 14.625, that's obviously not the case. It's 14 for football and 15 for everything else. That's not ideal, but clearly the ACC felt the the Irish were worth making an exception for. As a result they're talking about a 20 game conference basketball schedule.

Why do some of you pretend that Notre Dame doesn't play ACC football games? I never have understood it but Notre Dame certainly plays ACC football games, just not a full slate. 14.625 is the # of FB members in the ACC, 15 in everything else. The only way 15 makes sense is with 3 divisions of 5. No way this was the plan.

As far as 14 you can believe that 14 was the goal if you want even though it's clearly not. No way the SEC planned to have Missouri in an Eastern Division. No way the B1G wanted all the strength of the conference in one division either.

There is a reason the B1G and ACC have tried alternate divisions after the original divisions were scrapped. Remember Leaders and Legends? Realize Miami and FSU aren't in the same division now?

The 14 team leagues are trying to make divisions work but to anyone looking at the setups it's clear this was never the goal, but more of a compromise. Compromise a 9 game unbalanced schedule or a 8 game schedule where you play opposing division teams only once every 4 years (6/2). 10 is stupid, just more guaranteed losses and hurt SOS.

I really don't think there is one conference who is completely happy with it's setup right now.

More D2 call ups when some schools either merge or shut down.

I think the lines are getting too fuzzy with bowl eligibility and how FCS programs and Hawaii factor into them. Maybe thirteen games become the norm.

Would that be enough to get some expansion going by itself?

I mention it because I'm pretty sure the Big Ten models for sixteen or more members assume ten conference games -and- thirteen regular season games. This was said to be the only way everyone got their seven home games cleanly, if not giving some the luck of getting eight or more.

Or is it that expansion will necessitate that move to thirteen and not the other way around?

(02-12-2017 04:48 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-12-2017 04:40 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  1: The B1G invites Missouri. Missouri, not bound by an SEC GoR immediately accepts.

2: While WVU promotes itself as the obvious Mizzou replacement, "sources" indicate that the SEC is actively pursuing KU/OU/UT as 14/15/16.

3. State legislatures in KS, OK, and TX react with KS and OK legislators advocating keeping the BigXII together while the TX legislators promote a UT, TTU, Hou trio.

4: "Sources" indicate the Texas trio is close to becoming an SEC reality. Regents at OU and KU use the threat of being left in a Texas-less BigXII as cover to leave their little brothers. KU commits s to join the B1G as #16 and OU to join the SEC as #14.

5: The Texas trio adds Rice and "sources" indicate that the quartet will join the PAC. Sources then indicate Internal PAC conflict with Cal/Stanford opposing the additions on academic grounds and the SW4 opposing the creation of a new SWC.

6: Flight trackers identify a private craft traveling from Austin to the Bay Area and then returning with no announcement.

7: Few people notice the subsequent SF bound flight originating from suburban Chicago. When the B1G announces a press conference for the following day, people are taken by surprise.

8: The B1G announces the he acquisition of the PAC network with all revenues directed to the two remaining members- Oregon State and Washington State. The B1G then announces its new divisional ali

Key point in all of this. Mizzouri is not bound by a GOR in the SEC. They might consider this to be with rivals Illinois in the B1G. But who would be #16?

My preference would be Pitt or UConn. Likely that the Big 10 decides it has gone as far east as it wants to go, sees no additional value in another PA school, and adds Kansas along with Mizzou in that scenario.

(02-12-2017 08:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  Next realignment will be a re-shuffling of the G5. Probably involves the AAC and then the MWC going to 14, followed by the MAC.

I think that's possible. I also think the P5 could still break away from the NCAA, or form their own division. Either way, it will include basketball, throwing the current NCAA BB structure into turmoil.

That also could mean the P5 expands a bit before any possible breakaway, at least 72, maybe 80.

I don't see Missouri joining the big 10 unless team 16 is lined up and it's from the pool of ku, ou, Arkansas, Kentucky or Texas. Of course, if the big 10 can pull those schools they will be expanding past 16. The simplest expansion to 16 with Missouri to the big 10 would be with ku or another sec school.

Missouri is very happy in the SEC. I don't see them leaving.

(02-12-2017 11:59 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I think the lines are getting too fuzzy with bowl eligibility and how FCS programs and Hawaii factor into them. Maybe thirteen games become the norm.

Would that be enough to get some expansion going by itself?

I mention it because I'm pretty sure the Big Ten models for sixteen or more members assume ten conference games -and- thirteen regular season games. This was said to be the only way everyone got their seven home games cleanly, if not giving some the luck of getting eight or more.

Or is it that expansion will necessitate that move to thirteen and not the other way around?

Big 10 was gunning for something like 22 to 24 teams a few years ago. They were looking at Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame and maybe a Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas on the west.

West:
Texas
Kansas
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northwestern
Indiana
Purdue
Notre Dame

East:
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn. State
Rutgers
Maryland
Virginia
North Carolina
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Boston College/Syracuse/UConn. as the number 24.

You could break them up even more with 4 pods of 6.

Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Iowa
Nebraska
Minnesota

Wisconsin
Illinois
Indiana
Northwestern
Purdue
Notre Dame

Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn. State
UConn./Boston College/Syracuse
Rutgers

Maryland
Virginia
North Carolina
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State

PAC 12 makes a move...

They add Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State to get to 16 total members. This allows them to broadcast games across three time zones, increasing the footprint of the conference, and adding a football blue blood in Oklahoma. This also allows OU/OSU to stay together, as does KU/KSU. OSU and KSU are strong football programs that would not bring down the competitiveness or the prestige of the Southwest Division, and Kansas, while awful in football, is a blue blood in basketball and give the conference another elite hoops member. The four new additions are added with Colorado as five original members of the Big 8.

Pacific Division
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington State

Southwest Division
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Utah

(02-13-2017 11:11 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  PAC 12 makes a move...

They add Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State to get to 16 total members. This allows them to broadcast games across three time zones, increasing the footprint of the conference, and adding a football blue blood in Oklahoma. This also allows OU/OSU to stay together, as does KU/KSU. OSU and KSU are strong football programs that would not bring down the competitiveness or the prestige of the Southwest Division, and Kansas, while awful in football, is a blue blood in basketball and give the conference another elite hoops member. The four new additions are added with Colorado as five original members of the Big 8.

Pacific Division
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington State

Southwest Division
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Utah

So what happens West Virginia, Iowa State,Texas,Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor ?

I like the move of the PAC 12 to take ou, ok state, ku and k state...keeps it clean politically, let's the PAC 12 move into the central time zone with 2 big brands and forces Texas hand. The PAC 12 would be OK at 16 but the end game would be 18-20 with Texas and friends.

(02-13-2017 09:36 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(02-12-2017 08:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  Next realignment will be a re-shuffling of the G5. Probably involves the AAC and then the MWC going to 14, followed by the MAC.

I think that's possible. I also think the P5 could still break away from the NCAA, or form their own division. Either way, it will include basketball, throwing the current NCAA BB structure into turmoil.

That also could mean the P5 expands a bit before any possible breakaway, at least 72, maybe 80.

One could argue this already happened.

(02-12-2017 09:40 AM)Chappy Wrote:  I think the next move will be Wichita State to the American.

Then chaos when the big 12 grant of rights expires.

Yep the Shockers would give their right nut to leave the Valley and if the American doesn't take them the A10 should, they have a better TV contract than the Valley and in time their better programs (Dayton & VCU) will be expansion targets for somebody