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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #1
ESPN Bubble Watch
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch says:

"UNC Wilmington [21-4 (10-2), RPI: 46, SOS: 174] The Seahawks are a quality team with four top-100 wins, three of which came on the road. They might be a conference loss or two away from falling off the bubble, and they begin a three-game road trip on Saturday."

Including the First Four, there are 36 at-large bids. The "locks" and "teams that should be in" contribute at least 17 at-large bids. It will be more if any conference with at least one team in one of those two categories has its conference tournaments won by a team from not those two categories. UNCW is one of 36 teams in "work left to do."
02-07-2017 07:22 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
It's nice that we're getting the publicity and are even in consideration by the media, but we're distinctly on the outside looking in, and I don't think winning out until the conference title game will put us back on the bubble.

The only really strong thing you can say about our resume is we have no bad losses. But with Clemson falling to 3-8 in ACC play last night, Saint Bonaventure losing a big game to VCU to fall to 6-4 in A-10 play and Middle Tennessee losing a REALLY bad game to UTEP (# 300 RPI), there's just not a lot of good you can say about our non-conference opponents.

We're now outside the Top 40 of the RPI which is a bad place to be. We do have a Top 50 win against Charleston, but they're only barely in the Top 50 (# 50) and can easily fall out.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2017 11:28 AM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
02-08-2017 11:27 AM
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surfsalot Offline
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Post: #3
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
02-08-2017 04:51 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #4
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
TN and WAke at 13-10 and 14-10 with higher RPIs, SMH
02-08-2017 04:52 PM
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Fletch 8 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
Its unfortunate ESPN discontinued the bracket busters 2 day event that used to be in mid/late February.

2006 GMU similar record to ours (21-5), no great wins stole a 3 pt win at Wichita St. in February.

2011 VCU similar record (21-8), a few bad losses but good wins stole a 1 pt win at Wichita St. in February.

Imagine a televised rematch with MTSU at Trask or at Illinois St.
02-08-2017 09:28 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #6
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
Bracketbusters was very good to the CAA. Its too bad we went on our slide when that event took off and also that the CAA left ESPN effectively killing the event
02-08-2017 10:05 PM
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bricksnivy Offline
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Post: #7
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-08-2017 04:52 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  TN and WAke at 13-10 and 14-10 with higher RPIs, SMH

The RPI is not subjective, so I don't have an issue with that. I will say, I'm perfectly fine with Tennessee being on the bubble. I think you have to reward teams that schedule like they have this year. They're 14-10 right now with four big games left (UK, UGA, Bama and SCar). If they go 3-1 in those games, and win the other three games where they'll likely be favored, they'll be 20-11 heading into the SEC tournament. There should be a reward to having the third toughest SOS and winning 20 games. GAMER has them projected with three more losses; I don't think 17-13 is good enough to get in the tournament, but I don't have a problem with how they're being evaluated right now. Please note, I hate Tennessee, and I'm no fan of Rick Barnes; I just think they have a reasonable case for the tourney at this stage.

Wake's losses are better than ours. Six of their losses are to the RPI top 20, but they don't have the signature wins to get the nod (despite being from a P5) in my view. Their best wins are over Miami and Charleston.
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2017 08:23 AM by bricksnivy.)
02-09-2017 08:21 AM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-09-2017 08:21 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  
(02-08-2017 04:52 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  TN and WAke at 13-10 and 14-10 with higher RPIs, SMH

The RPI is not subjective, so I don't have an issue with that. I will say, I'm perfectly fine with Tennessee being on the bubble. I think you have to reward teams that schedule like they have this year. They're 14-10 right now with four big games left (UK, UGA, Bama and SCar). If they go 3-1 in those games, and win the other three games where they'll likely be favored, they'll be 20-11 heading into the SEC tournament. There should be a reward to having the third toughest SOS and winning 20 games. GAMER has them projected with three more losses; I don't think 17-13 is good enough to get in the tournament, but I don't have a problem with how they're being evaluated right now. Please note, I hate Tennessee, and I'm no fan of Rick Barnes; I just think they have a reasonable case for the tourney at this stage.

Wake's losses are better than ours. Six of their losses are to the RPI top 20, but they don't have the signature wins to get the nod (despite being from a P5) in my view. Their best wins are over Miami and Charleston.
I get it, it's just crazy to me that a double digit loss team can be that high with so many games left. It is what it is.
02-09-2017 08:43 AM
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70shawk Offline
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Post: #9
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-08-2017 11:27 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  It's nice that we're getting the publicity and are even in consideration by the media, but we're distinctly on the outside looking in, and I don't think winning out until the conference title game will put us back on the bubble.

^^This^^

I think had we run the table and found ourselves a 30 win team that lost the conference championship game to another very good team, I would have liked our chances. But if the NCAA didn't give last year's 29 win St Mary's team an at-large berth, they sure won't be inviting this year's UNCW team.

It's all about winning the regular season now (with the attendant automatic NIT bid) and then about winning the CAA Tournament to get that auto bid.
02-10-2017 08:44 AM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-10-2017 08:44 AM)70shawk Wrote:  
(02-08-2017 11:27 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  It's nice that we're getting the publicity and are even in consideration by the media, but we're distinctly on the outside looking in, and I don't think winning out until the conference title game will put us back on the bubble.

^^This^^

I think had we run the table and found ourselves a 30 win team that lost the conference championship game to another very good team, I would have liked our chances. But if the NCAA didn't give last year's 29 win St Mary's team an at-large berth, they sure won't be inviting this year's UNCW team.

It's all about winning the regular season now (with the attendant automatic NIT bid) and then about winning the CAA Tournament to get that auto bid.

Ah, but let's not forget the love they have given St. Mary's THIS year. Perhaps this year isn't our year for that media glory we desire. Maybe we stay off the radar again this year and next year we really get at it. Who knows. Regardless, I really love where our program is back to. This feels more normal.
02-10-2017 08:54 AM
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Coast2Coast Offline
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Post: #11
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
I doubt we'll go the rest of regular season without another loss. If we do, and then lose in the Championship game to Charleston (in Charleston), I think we still make it to the Big Dance. We'll be on the bubble for sure, but I think we'll get the benefit of the doubt since we played Duke so tough last year. We proved we could play with the big boys and we would have an even better team (& record) than last year.
02-10-2017 11:23 AM
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jumpinmullet Offline
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Post: #12
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
The 2016 NCAA tournament should have no bearing on the 2017 tournament. I doubt that UNCW can get in without winning the CAA tournament now. The A10 will only get two teams in and the CAA is no where close to the A10.
02-10-2017 05:34 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #13
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
I agree. Outside of the gonzaga St Mary's loser I don't see many non power conference at large options
02-10-2017 05:46 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #14
ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-10-2017 05:34 PM)jumpinmullet Wrote:  The 2016 NCAA tournament should have no bearing on the 2017 tournament. I doubt that UNCW can get in without winning the CAA tournament now. The A10 will only get two teams in and the CAA is no where close to the A10.

Absolutely agree. NEVER ONCE in all my years have I heard a bubble team's previous tournament showing as a reason to be put in the field. Especially when they lost the game in question. I'm not trying to be a negative nancy but that's some garbage logic at best. For those that don't seem to remember the game very well, we were rocked by Duke's big man in the second half. You don't get a free pass to the following years tournament with an okay season and beating a P5 powerhouse for HALF of a game. The only people that remember that anyways... are us. Even Duke fans probably forgot that game.

Win the CAAT or bust!
02-10-2017 08:46 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #15
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
https://twitter.com/CBSSports/status/830433846776721408

Apparently they are going to show some of the bracket selection process today at 12:30 on CBS
02-11-2017 11:19 AM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #16
ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-11-2017 11:19 AM)solohawks Wrote:  https://twitter.com/CBSSports/status/830433846776721408

Apparently they are going to show some of the bracket selection process today at 12:30 on CBS

I watched it. Not a fan. It was a wasted 30 min.
02-11-2017 01:54 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #17
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
You fell off the Bubble Watch last week. Today Joe Lunardi improved you to an 11 seed against 6 seed Notre Dame. Seven years ago Old Dominion got an 11 seed and beat Notre Dame.
02-20-2017 10:42 AM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #18
ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-20-2017 10:42 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  You fell off the Bubble Watch last week. Today Joe Lunardi improved you to an 11 seed against 6 seed Notre Dame. Seven years ago Old Dominion got an 11 seed and beat Notre Dame.

That would be a great matchup for us, I think.
02-20-2017 11:53 AM
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bricksnivy Offline
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Post: #19
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
I agree CG. A tough matchup; ND is very good, but they present a match up problem that we can't prepare for.
02-20-2017 11:59 AM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #20
ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-20-2017 11:59 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  I agree CG. A tough matchup; ND is very good, but they present a match up problem that we can't prepare for.

Any P5 is going to be tough to deal with for us this year because of our size, lack of depth in rim protectors, and our propensity to guard with our hands instead of our feet.
02-20-2017 12:40 PM
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