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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #21
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-20-2017 12:40 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(02-20-2017 11:59 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  I agree CG. A tough matchup; ND is very good, but they present a match up problem that we can't prepare for.

Any P5 is going to be tough to deal with for us this year because of our size, lack of depth in rim protectors, and our propensity to guard with our hands instead of our feet.

Yup, for sure. Same Reason why Plumlee looked like Shaq last year
02-20-2017 12:41 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #22
ESPN Bubble Watch
(02-20-2017 12:41 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(02-20-2017 12:40 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(02-20-2017 11:59 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  I agree CG. A tough matchup; ND is very good, but they present a match up problem that we can't prepare for.

Any P5 is going to be tough to deal with for us this year because of our size, lack of depth in rim protectors, and our propensity to guard with our hands instead of our feet.

Yup, for sure. Same Reason why Plumlee looked like Shaq last year

Exactly. Worries me a bit, but we definitely have the pieces to stun someone. I think if we get the right matchup and we can put them on their heels in the first half and cause them to panic in the 2nd, we're good. Problem last year was Coach K. If any coach in the country can solve a crisis during the break and get his team back in it it's him. That still sucks. Would have been such an epic win.
02-20-2017 12:46 PM
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Fletch 8 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
Lundardi's current bubble teams as of 3/1/17:
1. RPI: 48 | Record vs RPI 50-100 5-6 -- Vanderbilt
2. RPI: 49 | Record vs RPI 50-100 6-3 -- Seton Hall
3. RPI: 55 | Record vs RPI 50-100 4-1 -- Providence
4. RPI: 72 | Record vs RPI 50-100 3-4 -- Marquette


UNCW:
1. RPI 38 | Record vs RPI 50-100 5-2
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2017 02:00 PM by Fletch 8.)
03-01-2017 01:58 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #24
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
We keep showing as a 12 seed. Sure would like to somehow get to 11. The matchups look a whole lot better there.
03-01-2017 06:15 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #25
ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-01-2017 06:15 PM)82hawk Wrote:  We keep showing as a 12 seed. Sure would like to somehow get to 11. The matchups look a whole lot better there.

Agree. The difference between 5 and 6 seed teams can be huge.
03-01-2017 06:22 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #26
ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-01-2017 06:22 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-01-2017 06:15 PM)82hawk Wrote:  We keep showing as a 12 seed. Sure would like to somehow get to 11. The matchups look a whole lot better there.

Agree. The difference between 5 and 6 seed teams can be huge.

UVA would be a brutal matchup for us, especially after seeing what Clemson did to us
03-01-2017 06:38 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #27
ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-01-2017 06:38 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(03-01-2017 06:22 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-01-2017 06:15 PM)82hawk Wrote:  We keep showing as a 12 seed. Sure would like to somehow get to 11. The matchups look a whole lot better there.

Agree. The difference between 5 and 6 seed teams can be huge.

UVA would be a brutal matchup for us, especially after seeing what Clemson did to us

I think we've grown up a good bit since the Clemson game. Chuck will be a big factor off the bench.
03-01-2017 06:41 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #28
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-01-2017 01:58 PM)Fletch 8 Wrote:  Lundardi's current bubble teams as of 3/1/17:
1. RPI: 48 | Record vs RPI 50-100 5-6 -- Vanderbilt
2. RPI: 49 | Record vs RPI 50-100 6-3 -- Seton Hall
3. RPI: 55 | Record vs RPI 50-100 4-1 -- Providence
4. RPI: 72 | Record vs RPI 50-100 3-4 -- Marquette


UNCW:
1. RPI 38 | Record vs RPI 50-100 5-2

Lol gotta love it
03-01-2017 08:01 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #29
ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-01-2017 06:41 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  
(03-01-2017 06:38 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(03-01-2017 06:22 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-01-2017 06:15 PM)82hawk Wrote:  We keep showing as a 12 seed. Sure would like to somehow get to 11. The matchups look a whole lot better there.

Agree. The difference between 5 and 6 seed teams can be huge.

UVA would be a brutal matchup for us, especially after seeing what Clemson did to us

I think we've grown up a good bit since the Clemson game. Chuck will be a big factor off the bench.

Have we? Maybe. Maybe not. We entered that game throttling teams on a significant win streak. Since then we've had issues closing games with large leads, even letting a couple teams beat us at the end of the game.

The CAAT will be telling in terms of how ready we will be.

"We've grown up a good bit" just seems like a difficult metric to prove.
03-02-2017 06:54 AM
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70shawk Offline
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Post: #30
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-02-2017 06:54 AM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  Have we? Maybe. Maybe not. We entered that game throttling teams on a significant win streak. Since then we've had issues closing games with large leads, even letting a couple teams beat us at the end of the game.

The CAAT will be telling in terms of how ready we will be.

"We've grown up a good bit" just seems like a difficult metric to prove.

^^This^^

All this talk about what our seed will be is WAY premature. UNCW has looked like anything but the inevitable CAA Tournament Champion as the season has ended. We still look like the best team in the conference, but not a team that can't be beaten by a lot of other conference teams.

I have suspected that Coach Keatts has let the players chuck up all those threes at will because he knows that that is the way (provided they drop) he can draw blood in the NCAAs. An undersized , pressing and trapping , athletic squad can beat a lot of teams when they are hitting their threes.

But if they aren't falling in the CAA tournament, you won't get a chance to show what you can do to NCAA tournament teams.
03-02-2017 07:44 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-01-2017 01:58 PM)Fletch 8 Wrote:  Lundardi's current bubble teams as of 3/1/17:
1. RPI: 48 | Record vs RPI 50-100 5-6 -- Vanderbilt
2. RPI: 49 | Record vs RPI 50-100 6-3 -- Seton Hall
3. RPI: 55 | Record vs RPI 50-100 4-1 -- Providence
4. RPI: 72 | Record vs RPI 50-100 3-4 -- Marquette


UNCW:
1. RPI 38 | Record vs RPI 50-100 5-2

So now you want to cherry-pick? Everyone knows top 100 is the baseline but top 50 wins have always been considered what makes your resume. Sub 100/150 losses is what keeps you out, especially as a mid major. This paints a much different story doesn't it?

1. RPI: 48 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 4-8 -- Vanderbilt
2. RPI: 49 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 3-6 -- Seton Hall
3. RPI: 55 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 5-7 -- Providence
4. RPI: 72 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 7-6 -- Marquette

UNCW:
1. RPI 38 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 0-1
03-02-2017 08:12 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #32
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
Look at how many opportunities they had v how many we had
03-02-2017 08:17 AM
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bricksnivy Offline
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Post: #33
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-02-2017 08:12 AM)dan10 Wrote:  
(03-01-2017 01:58 PM)Fletch 8 Wrote:  Lundardi's current bubble teams as of 3/1/17:
1. RPI: 48 | Record vs RPI 50-100 5-6 -- Vanderbilt
2. RPI: 49 | Record vs RPI 50-100 6-3 -- Seton Hall
3. RPI: 55 | Record vs RPI 50-100 4-1 -- Providence
4. RPI: 72 | Record vs RPI 50-100 3-4 -- Marquette


UNCW:
1. RPI 38 | Record vs RPI 50-100 5-2

So now you want to cherry-pick? Everyone knows top 100 is the baseline but top 50 wins have always been considered what makes your resume. Sub 100/150 losses is what keeps you out, especially as a mid major. This paints a much different story doesn't it?

1. RPI: 48 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 4-8 -- Vanderbilt
2. RPI: 49 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 3-6 -- Seton Hall
3. RPI: 55 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 5-7 -- Providence
4. RPI: 72 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 7-6 -- Marquette

UNCW:
1. RPI 38 | Record vs RPI Top 50- 0-1

Even when considering top 50 records, would you give the nod to Vandy or Seton Hall over UNCW? What about a 4-8 record against the top 50 is impressive?
03-02-2017 08:21 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-02-2017 08:21 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  Even when considering top 50 records, would you give the nod to Vandy or Seton Hall over UNCW? What about a 4-8 record against the top 50 is impressive?

Absolutely. I did not say it was impressive, but winning 4 games against the top 50 is still quality, regardless that it took 12 tries. This is the argument every single season when comparing mids to top conferences. Do you take a team that is 1-1 against the top 50 or the team that is 4-8. The problem for UNCW is they had 1 chance, and lost it. 1-1 is a lot more impressive than 0-1. 0 wins is 0 wins no matter how you slice it. Major conferences will always have the quantities of opportunities, but the mids have to win the few opportunities they get otherwise you will be left out.
03-02-2017 08:27 AM
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bricksnivy Offline
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Post: #35
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-02-2017 08:27 AM)dan10 Wrote:  
(03-02-2017 08:21 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  Even when considering top 50 records, would you give the nod to Vandy or Seton Hall over UNCW? What about a 4-8 record against the top 50 is impressive?

Absolutely. I did not say it was impressive, but winning 4 games against the top 50 is still quality, regardless that it took 12 tries. This is the argument every single season when comparing mids to top conferences. Do you take a team that is 1-1 against the top 50 or the team that is 4-8. The problem for UNCW is they had 1 chance, and lost it. 1-1 is a lot more impressive than 0-1. 0 wins is 0 wins no matter how you slice it. Major conferences will always have the quantities of opportunities, but the mids have to win the few opportunities they get otherwise you will be left out.

I don't disagree with you, and I understand that's how it works. I'm not convinced you end up with the best field based on that approach, but that is an age-old complaint.
03-02-2017 08:30 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
With their buzzer-beating win over Michigan last night, Northwestern has all but sewn up their first ever NCAA Tournament bid. The Wildcats improve to 21-9 (10-7 B10), # 46 RPI and # 64 SOS. They have one more regular season game against Purdue (# 20 RPI) and then the B10 Tournament.

That would drop the number of original D-I teams who have never reached the NCAA Tournament down to 4. The Citadel, St. Francis (NY), Army, and of course, William & Mary.
(This post was last modified: 03-02-2017 08:41 AM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
03-02-2017 08:38 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
(03-02-2017 08:30 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  
(03-02-2017 08:27 AM)dan10 Wrote:  
(03-02-2017 08:21 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  Even when considering top 50 records, would you give the nod to Vandy or Seton Hall over UNCW? What about a 4-8 record against the top 50 is impressive?

Absolutely. I did not say it was impressive, but winning 4 games against the top 50 is still quality, regardless that it took 12 tries. This is the argument every single season when comparing mids to top conferences. Do you take a team that is 1-1 against the top 50 or the team that is 4-8. The problem for UNCW is they had 1 chance, and lost it. 1-1 is a lot more impressive than 0-1. 0 wins is 0 wins no matter how you slice it. Major conferences will always have the quantities of opportunities, but the mids have to win the few opportunities they get otherwise you will be left out.

I don't disagree with you, and I understand that's how it works. I'm not convinced you end up with the best field based on that approach, but that is an age-old complaint.

And that is the problem you will always have. There is no good way with so many teams to truly judge how good a team is because schedules are completely unbalanced. In the end all you have is teams you think are good based on feelings. Rankings are subjective. Statistics are mostly subjective because there is no even playing field. We will never put the best teams in the tournament as long as there are automatic bids, and even then it will always be subjective in deciding the at larges of who is better than who. I am glad they are going to start using Kenpom etc but there are no statistical methods that can truly tell you how good a team is.

Therefore it will always be the power conference teams' show, and if a smaller school wants to participate you have to make the case above and beyond to make it. If you can't do, that you are either home or in a lesser tournament. It's that simple. Comparatively, UNCW has not done anything above and beyond to make a case to be allowed to participate without the automatic bid over any of those teams on the bubble.
03-02-2017 10:32 AM
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WingsUp Offline
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Post: #38
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
ESPN just put out their latest bracket. They have us #12 playing ND in Orlando.
03-02-2017 12:01 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
The bottom line is this. Why do so many people tune into the NCAA tournament? What makes it exciting? Is it the P5/6 consistently winning? Maybe. There's so many of them it can be fun watching them go at it.

But what COMPELLS people to watch in spell-binding fashion?

The upsets. The "ciiiiinderellllllllas baaaaaaaaaaby"!! That's why. Yet the committee and the money-driven P5/6s like to limit Cinderella chances because too many and their ability to consistently win drops considerably. So they take calculated chances. A mid-major on the cusp is not as likely to be picked because they're a threat. For example, let's use for the sake of this argument UNCW and Vanderbilt. If UNCW is admitted and upsets a strong P5/6 team it's a story. But more importantly it's money leaving the major conferences and going to the CAA. A "contender" losing to a Vanderbilt "Cinderella" squad isn't as bad to them because the money stays in a major conference. They take a calculated risk that the viewing public would still tune in, watch, and cheer for a "Cinderella" Vanderbilt who may take out Kentucky, UNC, or Duke without the risk of the money leaving a major conference.

Mid Majors from smaller conferences, while they may meet the eye test, record, RPI, etc... are a threat. To the money.

That's the bottom line.
03-02-2017 12:03 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: ESPN Bubble Watch
Cinderellas get people to fill out brackets, that's for sure. It generates interest in the tournament itself.

But viewership goes down, especially in the later rounds, when P5's are not involved. The NCAA, committee, and networks know this.
03-02-2017 12:21 PM
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