(02-08-2017 04:34 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-08-2017 02:30 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Not to self compliment these rankings but I think they have scored victories and been proven right with Ball State and NIU. Two teams which are not the real deal

Your #1 team for 9 games is 5-6 and in 8th place in the conference... you could literally scramble up 12 names in a hat and get some predictions right! Nothing about these have been predictive at all. Not even as close as my tinkering of your metrix when you multiply windex x3 of what you have.

If you look at KenPom EMU is still number 4, EMU's metrics are very very good still. Plus rankings above do not take into account Tuesday's games yet. They have been very predictive in not overreacting to NIU and BSU and indicating that WMU is better than their record indicates. I am pretty happy with this so far, much more stable than your typical Hustlebelt power rankings at least :)

I also am very satisfied that they are not showing Akron as leaps and bounds above the conference despite the record, which I think is also spot on

(02-09-2017 01:12 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-08-2017 04:34 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-08-2017 02:30 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Not to self compliment these rankings but I think they have scored victories and been proven right with Ball State and NIU. Two teams which are not the real deal

Your #1 team for 9 games is 5-6 and in 8th place in the conference... you could literally scramble up 12 names in a hat and get some predictions right! Nothing about these have been predictive at all. Not even as close as my tinkering of your metrix when you multiply windex x3 of what you have.

If you look at KenPom EMU is still number 4, EMU's metrics are very very good still. Plus rankings above do not take into account Tuesday's games yet. They have been very predictive in not overreacting to NIU and BSU and indicating that WMU is better than their record indicates. I am pretty happy with this so far, much more stable than your typical Hustlebelt power rankings at least :)

I also am very satisfied that they are not showing Akron as leaps and bounds above the conference despite the record, which I think is also spot on

You look at Kenpom and I'll look at RPI, Sagarin, BPI, and OVERALL LEAGUE RECORD which indicates that Akron does have a large lead on the conference... because they are um... 10-1, and the next closest team is um 6-5.

It's not easy to seperate the 6-5 teams, I understand that. There will always be debate there because everyone is beating everyone.

I'll search other notable sites for their (PREDICTOR) and compare to yours, if you are attempting to PREDICT and not rank the teams based on their recent play...

By doing this, overall record and SOS is accounted for heavily. Whether or not WMU is playing better now or not, their predictors base every game equally... therefor an overall record of 8-15 will not grant you a PREDICTIVE advantage because they will lose 2 of every 3 games played based on the past.

Sagarin PREDICTOR:
Akron 101, Ohio 102, UB 132, EMU 134, Kent 148, Toledo 149, CMU 174, 176 NIU, BSU 177, WMU 190, BGSU 235, Miami 281.

RPI:
45 Akron, 118 CMU, 133 Ohio, EMU 153, UB 157, Toledo 169, NIU 201, BSU 207, BG 219, Kent 227, WMU 228, Miami 319.

BPI PREDICTOR:
19 Akron, 73 Ohio, 76 CMU, 132 Ball State, 155 EMU, 160 NIU, 171 Kent, 173 UB, 180 Toledo, 150 BG, 271 WMU, 294 Miami.

Take these three and give Akron a score of 1 because average three first place votes and you get... 1st place...imagine that! Three 12th place votes for Miami makes them last at 12th.

UofToledoFans PREDICTOR AVERAGE:
1.) Akron

2.33) Ohio
4.) CMU
4.33) EMU
5.33) UB

7.) Toledo
7.) NIU
7.) BSU
7.33) Kent

10.) BG
10.33) WMU
12.) Miami

As you can see Akron has a mere runaway with the UofToledofans PREDICTOR AVERAGE. Ohio, CMU, and EMU have goodish overall records keeping them near the top. UB is held down by overall record but SOS and good play keeps them in a middle tier. Toledo, NIU, and BSU are looked at equally. Toledo's OOC SOS makes their record look worse than it would be with a weak SOS of BSU. Kent is kept down by a lot of close games to teams that they should beat worse (Miami, WMU, etc). BGSU is finally gelling, moving them up a little bit in the past weeks. WMU sucked out of conference so there is little to complain about with them seeing they've only won 8 games (Although their offense is one to be feared coming down the home stretch). Miami is plain bad.

(02-09-2017 02:20 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 01:12 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-08-2017 04:34 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-08-2017 02:30 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Not to self compliment these rankings but I think they have scored victories and been proven right with Ball State and NIU. Two teams which are not the real deal

Your #1 team for 9 games is 5-6 and in 8th place in the conference... you could literally scramble up 12 names in a hat and get some predictions right! Nothing about these have been predictive at all. Not even as close as my tinkering of your metrix when you multiply windex x3 of what you have.

If you look at KenPom EMU is still number 4, EMU's metrics are very very good still. Plus rankings above do not take into account Tuesday's games yet. They have been very predictive in not overreacting to NIU and BSU and indicating that WMU is better than their record indicates. I am pretty happy with this so far, much more stable than your typical Hustlebelt power rankings at least :)

I also am very satisfied that they are not showing Akron as leaps and bounds above the conference despite the record, which I think is also spot on

You look at Kenpom and I'll look at RPI, Sagarin, BPI, and OVERALL LEAGUE RECORD which indicates that Akron does have a large lead on the conference... because they are um... 10-1, and the next closest team is um 6-5.

It's not easy to seperate the 6-5 teams, I understand that. There will always be debate there because everyone is beating everyone.

I'll search other notable sites for their (PREDICTOR) and compare to yours, if you are attempting to PREDICT and not rank the teams based on their recent play...

By doing this, overall record and SOS is accounted for heavily. Whether or not WMU is playing better now or not, their predictors base every game equally... therefor an overall record of 8-15 will not grant you a PREDICTIVE advantage because they will lose 2 of every 3 games played based on the past.

Sagarin PREDICTOR:
Akron 101, Ohio 102, UB 132, EMU 134, Kent 148, Toledo 149, CMU 174, 176 NIU, BSU 177, WMU 190, BGSU 235, Miami 281.

RPI:
45 Akron, 118 CMU, 133 Ohio, EMU 153, UB 157, Toledo 169, NIU 201, BSU 207, BG 219, Kent 227, WMU 228, Miami 319.

BPI PREDICTOR:
19 Akron, 73 Ohio, 76 CMU, 132 Ball State, 155 EMU, 160 NIU, 171 Kent, 173 UB, 180 Toledo, 150 BG, 271 WMU, 294 Miami.

Take these three and give Akron a score of 1 because average three first place votes and you get... 1st place...imagine that! Three 12th place votes for Miami makes them last at 12th.

UofToledoFans PREDICTOR AVERAGE:
1.) Akron

2.33) Ohio
4.) CMU
4.33) EMU
5.33) UB

7.) Toledo
7.) NIU
7.) BSU
7.33) Kent

10.) BG
10.33) WMU
12.) Miami

Akron though has nowhere near the SOS of even a Western Michigan. Its closer than you think. Don't let win/loss records fool you. Whatever you do, please don't look at Sagarin rankings, those are just horrrrrrid. Kenpom and massey are the best statistical rankings to date, nothing beats them. RPI is prehistoric and outdated.

(02-09-2017 04:36 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 02:20 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 01:12 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-08-2017 04:34 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-08-2017 02:30 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Not to self compliment these rankings but I think they have scored victories and been proven right with Ball State and NIU. Two teams which are not the real deal

Your #1 team for 9 games is 5-6 and in 8th place in the conference... you could literally scramble up 12 names in a hat and get some predictions right! Nothing about these have been predictive at all. Not even as close as my tinkering of your metrix when you multiply windex x3 of what you have.

If you look at KenPom EMU is still number 4, EMU's metrics are very very good still. Plus rankings above do not take into account Tuesday's games yet. They have been very predictive in not overreacting to NIU and BSU and indicating that WMU is better than their record indicates. I am pretty happy with this so far, much more stable than your typical Hustlebelt power rankings at least :)

I also am very satisfied that they are not showing Akron as leaps and bounds above the conference despite the record, which I think is also spot on

You look at Kenpom and I'll look at RPI, Sagarin, BPI, and OVERALL LEAGUE RECORD which indicates that Akron does have a large lead on the conference... because they are um... 10-1, and the next closest team is um 6-5.

It's not easy to seperate the 6-5 teams, I understand that. There will always be debate there because everyone is beating everyone.

I'll search other notable sites for their (PREDICTOR) and compare to yours, if you are attempting to PREDICT and not rank the teams based on their recent play...

By doing this, overall record and SOS is accounted for heavily. Whether or not WMU is playing better now or not, their predictors base every game equally... therefor an overall record of 8-15 will not grant you a PREDICTIVE advantage because they will lose 2 of every 3 games played based on the past.

Sagarin PREDICTOR:
Akron 101, Ohio 102, UB 132, EMU 134, Kent 148, Toledo 149, CMU 174, 176 NIU, BSU 177, WMU 190, BGSU 235, Miami 281.

RPI:
45 Akron, 118 CMU, 133 Ohio, EMU 153, UB 157, Toledo 169, NIU 201, BSU 207, BG 219, Kent 227, WMU 228, Miami 319.

BPI PREDICTOR:
19 Akron, 73 Ohio, 76 CMU, 132 Ball State, 155 EMU, 160 NIU, 171 Kent, 173 UB, 180 Toledo, 150 BG, 271 WMU, 294 Miami.

Take these three and give Akron a score of 1 because average three first place votes and you get... 1st place...imagine that! Three 12th place votes for Miami makes them last at 12th.

UofToledoFans PREDICTOR AVERAGE:
1.) Akron

2.33) Ohio
4.) CMU
4.33) EMU
5.33) UB

7.) Toledo
7.) NIU
7.) BSU
7.33) Kent

10.) BG
10.33) WMU
12.) Miami

Akron though has nowhere near the SOS of even a Western Michigan. Its closer than you think. Don't let win/loss records fool you. Whatever you do, please don't look at Sagarin rankings, those are just horrrrrrid. Kenpom and massey are the best statistical rankings to date, nothing beats them. RPI is prehistoric and outdated.

Of course WMU has a better SOS than Akron. WMU had its SOS boosted by playing 20 win Akron twice, meanwhile, Akron had its torpedoed by playing 8 win WMU twice. Akron's played everyone besides Kent and Toledo (both middle of the road teams) at least once.

(02-09-2017 05:35 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 04:36 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 02:20 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 01:12 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-08-2017 04:34 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  Your #1 team for 9 games is 5-6 and in 8th place in the conference... you could literally scramble up 12 names in a hat and get some predictions right! Nothing about these have been predictive at all. Not even as close as my tinkering of your metrix when you multiply windex x3 of what you have.

If you look at KenPom EMU is still number 4, EMU's metrics are very very good still. Plus rankings above do not take into account Tuesday's games yet. They have been very predictive in not overreacting to NIU and BSU and indicating that WMU is better than their record indicates. I am pretty happy with this so far, much more stable than your typical Hustlebelt power rankings at least :)

I also am very satisfied that they are not showing Akron as leaps and bounds above the conference despite the record, which I think is also spot on

You look at Kenpom and I'll look at RPI, Sagarin, BPI, and OVERALL LEAGUE RECORD which indicates that Akron does have a large lead on the conference... because they are um... 10-1, and the next closest team is um 6-5.

It's not easy to seperate the 6-5 teams, I understand that. There will always be debate there because everyone is beating everyone.

I'll search other notable sites for their (PREDICTOR) and compare to yours, if you are attempting to PREDICT and not rank the teams based on their recent play...

By doing this, overall record and SOS is accounted for heavily. Whether or not WMU is playing better now or not, their predictors base every game equally... therefor an overall record of 8-15 will not grant you a PREDICTIVE advantage because they will lose 2 of every 3 games played based on the past.

Sagarin PREDICTOR:
Akron 101, Ohio 102, UB 132, EMU 134, Kent 148, Toledo 149, CMU 174, 176 NIU, BSU 177, WMU 190, BGSU 235, Miami 281.

RPI:
45 Akron, 118 CMU, 133 Ohio, EMU 153, UB 157, Toledo 169, NIU 201, BSU 207, BG 219, Kent 227, WMU 228, Miami 319.

BPI PREDICTOR:
19 Akron, 73 Ohio, 76 CMU, 132 Ball State, 155 EMU, 160 NIU, 171 Kent, 173 UB, 180 Toledo, 150 BG, 271 WMU, 294 Miami.

Take these three and give Akron a score of 1 because average three first place votes and you get... 1st place...imagine that! Three 12th place votes for Miami makes them last at 12th.

UofToledoFans PREDICTOR AVERAGE:
1.) Akron

2.33) Ohio
4.) CMU
4.33) EMU
5.33) UB

7.) Toledo
7.) NIU
7.) BSU
7.33) Kent

10.) BG
10.33) WMU
12.) Miami

Akron though has nowhere near the SOS of even a Western Michigan. Its closer than you think. Don't let win/loss records fool you. Whatever you do, please don't look at Sagarin rankings, those are just horrrrrrid. Kenpom and massey are the best statistical rankings to date, nothing beats them. RPI is prehistoric and outdated.

Of course WMU has a better SOS than Akron. WMU had its SOS boosted by playing 20 win Akron twice, meanwhile, Akron had its torpedoed by playing 8 win WMU twice. Akron's played everyone besides Kent and Toledo (both middle of the road teams) at least once.

Villanova and UCLA have a little something to do with that too

(02-09-2017 08:26 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 05:35 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 04:36 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 02:20 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 01:12 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  If you look at KenPom EMU is still number 4, EMU's metrics are very very good still. Plus rankings above do not take into account Tuesday's games yet. They have been very predictive in not overreacting to NIU and BSU and indicating that WMU is better than their record indicates. I am pretty happy with this so far, much more stable than your typical Hustlebelt power rankings at least :)

I also am very satisfied that they are not showing Akron as leaps and bounds above the conference despite the record, which I think is also spot on

You look at Kenpom and I'll look at RPI, Sagarin, BPI, and OVERALL LEAGUE RECORD which indicates that Akron does have a large lead on the conference... because they are um... 10-1, and the next closest team is um 6-5.

It's not easy to seperate the 6-5 teams, I understand that. There will always be debate there because everyone is beating everyone.

I'll search other notable sites for their (PREDICTOR) and compare to yours, if you are attempting to PREDICT and not rank the teams based on their recent play...

By doing this, overall record and SOS is accounted for heavily. Whether or not WMU is playing better now or not, their predictors base every game equally... therefor an overall record of 8-15 will not grant you a PREDICTIVE advantage because they will lose 2 of every 3 games played based on the past.

Sagarin PREDICTOR:
Akron 101, Ohio 102, UB 132, EMU 134, Kent 148, Toledo 149, CMU 174, 176 NIU, BSU 177, WMU 190, BGSU 235, Miami 281.

RPI:
45 Akron, 118 CMU, 133 Ohio, EMU 153, UB 157, Toledo 169, NIU 201, BSU 207, BG 219, Kent 227, WMU 228, Miami 319.

BPI PREDICTOR:
19 Akron, 73 Ohio, 76 CMU, 132 Ball State, 155 EMU, 160 NIU, 171 Kent, 173 UB, 180 Toledo, 150 BG, 271 WMU, 294 Miami.

Take these three and give Akron a score of 1 because average three first place votes and you get... 1st place...imagine that! Three 12th place votes for Miami makes them last at 12th.

UofToledoFans PREDICTOR AVERAGE:
1.) Akron

2.33) Ohio
4.) CMU
4.33) EMU
5.33) UB

7.) Toledo
7.) NIU
7.) BSU
7.33) Kent

10.) BG
10.33) WMU
12.) Miami

Akron though has nowhere near the SOS of even a Western Michigan. Its closer than you think. Don't let win/loss records fool you. Whatever you do, please don't look at Sagarin rankings, those are just horrrrrrid. Kenpom and massey are the best statistical rankings to date, nothing beats them. RPI is prehistoric and outdated.

Of course WMU has a better SOS than Akron. WMU had its SOS boosted by playing 20 win Akron twice, meanwhile, Akron had its torpedoed by playing 8 win WMU twice. Akron's played everyone besides Kent and Toledo (both middle of the road teams) at least once.

Villanova and UCLA have a little something to do with that too

It's not like Akron didn't play Gonzaga and Creighton or anything. That's beside the point though. Nobody is arguing Akron's better than the rest of the conference because they are 29-4 and the next best team (based on overall record) is CMU at 16-8. They are arguing Akron's well above everyone because we are 11 games into the MAC season and Akron already has a 4 game lead. OOC SOS has nothing to do with it.

(02-09-2017 09:45 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 08:26 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 05:35 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 04:36 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 02:20 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  You look at Kenpom and I'll look at RPI, Sagarin, BPI, and OVERALL LEAGUE RECORD which indicates that Akron does have a large lead on the conference... because they are um... 10-1, and the next closest team is um 6-5.

It's not easy to seperate the 6-5 teams, I understand that. There will always be debate there because everyone is beating everyone.

I'll search other notable sites for their (PREDICTOR) and compare to yours, if you are attempting to PREDICT and not rank the teams based on their recent play...

By doing this, overall record and SOS is accounted for heavily. Whether or not WMU is playing better now or not, their predictors base every game equally... therefor an overall record of 8-15 will not grant you a PREDICTIVE advantage because they will lose 2 of every 3 games played based on the past.

Sagarin PREDICTOR:
Akron 101, Ohio 102, UB 132, EMU 134, Kent 148, Toledo 149, CMU 174, 176 NIU, BSU 177, WMU 190, BGSU 235, Miami 281.

RPI:
45 Akron, 118 CMU, 133 Ohio, EMU 153, UB 157, Toledo 169, NIU 201, BSU 207, BG 219, Kent 227, WMU 228, Miami 319.

BPI PREDICTOR:
19 Akron, 73 Ohio, 76 CMU, 132 Ball State, 155 EMU, 160 NIU, 171 Kent, 173 UB, 180 Toledo, 150 BG, 271 WMU, 294 Miami.

Take these three and give Akron a score of 1 because average three first place votes and you get... 1st place...imagine that! Three 12th place votes for Miami makes them last at 12th.

UofToledoFans PREDICTOR AVERAGE:
1.) Akron

2.33) Ohio
4.) CMU
4.33) EMU
5.33) UB

7.) Toledo
7.) NIU
7.) BSU
7.33) Kent

10.) BG
10.33) WMU
12.) Miami

Akron though has nowhere near the SOS of even a Western Michigan. Its closer than you think. Don't let win/loss records fool you. Whatever you do, please don't look at Sagarin rankings, those are just horrrrrrid. Kenpom and massey are the best statistical rankings to date, nothing beats them. RPI is prehistoric and outdated.

Of course WMU has a better SOS than Akron. WMU had its SOS boosted by playing 20 win Akron twice, meanwhile, Akron had its torpedoed by playing 8 win WMU twice. Akron's played everyone besides Kent and Toledo (both middle of the road teams) at least once.

Villanova and UCLA have a little something to do with that too

It's not like Akron didn't play Gonzaga and Creighton or anything. That's beside the point though. Nobody is arguing Akron's better than the rest of the conference because they are 29-4 and the next best team (based on overall record) is CMU at 16-8. They are arguing Akron's well above everyone because we are 11 games into the MAC season and Akron already has a 4 game lead. OOC SOS has nothing to do with it.

Akron is well ahead on record, but when you have a single elimination game, I don't think skill level wise or quality of overall team that Akron is as separated from the rest of the top 5 as the record indicates.

(02-10-2017 11:48 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 09:45 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 08:26 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 05:35 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-09-2017 04:36 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Akron though has nowhere near the SOS of even a Western Michigan. Its closer than you think. Don't let win/loss records fool you. Whatever you do, please don't look at Sagarin rankings, those are just horrrrrrid. Kenpom and massey are the best statistical rankings to date, nothing beats them. RPI is prehistoric and outdated.

Of course WMU has a better SOS than Akron. WMU had its SOS boosted by playing 20 win Akron twice, meanwhile, Akron had its torpedoed by playing 8 win WMU twice. Akron's played everyone besides Kent and Toledo (both middle of the road teams) at least once.

Villanova and UCLA have a little something to do with that too

It's not like Akron didn't play Gonzaga and Creighton or anything. That's beside the point though. Nobody is arguing Akron's better than the rest of the conference because they are 29-4 and the next best team (based on overall record) is CMU at 16-8. They are arguing Akron's well above everyone because we are 11 games into the MAC season and Akron already has a 4 game lead. OOC SOS has nothing to do with it.

Akron is well ahead on record, but when you have a single elimination game, I don't think skill level wise or quality of overall team that Akron is as separated from the rest of the top 5 as the record indicates.

In a single elimination tournament anyone could beat anyone. I'd say last year MSU was significantly better than Middle Tennessee. That didn't prevent Middle Tennessee from knocking off MSU.

Perhaps some team emerges in the next 3+ weeks (looking at you Buffalo) and narrows that gap between Akron and the rest of the pack, but right now everyone else looks mediocre. Dambrot said it best on his college insiders podcast. This team only defends when its back is against the wall. If they actually committed to playing defense for a full 40 they'd be winning these games by a lot more than they have been.

Well, yeah, every team is like that. If they were better basketball players with better mental attitudes, they would do that, but they aren't, so they don't.