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Chicago State Death Spiral
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TDenverFan Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
At this point, when you're only getting 140 some freshmen including part timers, what percent of the full time, traditional students are athletes? Has to be pushing a majority.
01-10-2018 03:44 PM
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joeben69 Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
possible conferences that chicago state can go to if they drop to a lower division:

NCAA
Division II
Great Midwest Athletic Conference
Great Lakes Valley Conference
Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

Division III
Midwest Conference
College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

NAIA
Division I
American Midwest Conference
01-11-2018 01:09 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
joeben69,

The conference CSU would logically drop down to would be the Chicagoland Collegiate Athletic Conference (CCAC), which is NAIA in all sports, except Basketball which is NCAA D-II.

http://www.ccacsports.com/

The schools are almost within about 75 miles of Chicago State, and include Roosevelt (Chicago), Governors State, Indiana-South Bend, and a bunch of similar sized private schools in the Chicago area.

Chicago State athletics actually is in good shape APR-wise, so they should meet NAIA standards. The budgets of the schools are similar to what Chicago State can afford, in the $2-3M range. Travel cost would go down dramatically. Also these schools have almost zero recruiting budget - this is a very large expense at Chicago State. Also the school could drop sports to get down to 10.

But this assumes you keep the school open. From a financial standpoint the intelligent thing to do is transfer the 500 strongest students to other campuses, even tuition free (it's cheaper) and leave only a couple strong programs open, such as Pharmacy (has 300+ students, 85% graduation rate ... this is the rare gem) by transferring administration to another school, like UIC. Basically Fire the entire administration of Chicago State. The campus could become a southern satellite of UIC, which probably makes more sense in the long run.

I need to correct my post based on internal audit information I found on CSU

Freshmen retention rates:
Fall 2012 = 54%
Fall 2013 = 53%
Fall 2014 = 58%
Fall 2016 = 51%

The report notes that most Freshmen since 2012 are part time. So it looks like athletes are almost the only full time, and the transfer rate includes them (yeah even they transfer). A lot are drops/fails too. Anyway the actual retention rate is 54% average. Almost all public schools have Freshmen retention rates ranging from 80-95%.

I suspect the politics of Chicago are such that the school will instead stay open as is a couple more years then just completely shut down due to dual enrollment and financial collapse, taking with it a solid Pharmacy school.
01-11-2018 03:01 PM
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joeben69 Offline
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Post: #84
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(01-11-2018 03:01 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  joeben69,

The conference CSU would logically drop down to would be the Chicagoland Collegiate Athletic Conference (CCAC), which is NAIA in all sports, except Basketball which is NCAA D-II.

http://www.ccacsports.com/

The schools are almost within about 75 miles of Chicago State, and include Roosevelt (Chicago), Governors State, Indiana-South Bend, and a bunch of similar sized private schools in the Chicago area.

Chicago State athletics actually is in good shape APR-wise, so they should meet NAIA standards. The budgets of the schools are similar to what Chicago State can afford, in the $2-3M range. Travel cost would go down dramatically. Also these schools have almost zero recruiting budget - this is a very large expense at Chicago State. Also the school could drop sports to get down to 10.

But this assumes you keep the school open. From a financial standpoint the intelligent thing to do is transfer the 500 strongest students to other campuses, even tuition free (it's cheaper) and leave only a couple strong programs open, such as Pharmacy (has 300+ students, 85% graduation rate ... this is the rare gem) by transferring administration to another school, like UIC. Basically Fire the entire administration of Chicago State. The campus could become a southern satellite of UIC, which probably makes more sense in the long run.

I need to correct my post based on internal audit information I found on CSU

Freshmen retention rates:
Fall 2012 = 54%
Fall 2013 = 53%
Fall 2014 = 58%
Fall 2016 = 51%

The report notes that most Freshmen since 2012 are part time. So it looks like athletes are almost the only full time, and the transfer rate includes them (yeah even they transfer). A lot are drops/fails too. Anyway the actual retention rate is 54% average. Almost all public schools have Freshmen retention rates ranging from 80-95%.

I suspect the politics of Chicago are such that the school will instead stay open as is a couple more years then just completely shut down due to dual enrollment and financial collapse, taking with it a solid Pharmacy school.

i did research the naia dii conferences but i wanted to give chicago state the benefit of the doubt...
(This post was last modified: 01-12-2018 07:39 PM by joeben69.)
01-12-2018 01:14 AM
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AZcats Offline
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Post: #85
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(01-11-2018 01:09 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  possible conferences that chicago state can go to if they drop to a lower division:

NCAA
Division II
Great Midwest Athletic Conference
Great Lakes Valley Conference
Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

Division III
Midwest Conference
College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

NAIA
Division I
American Midwest Conference

My only knowledge of Chicago State is what has been written here but I have serious doubts that any D2 conference would want anything to do with CSU. It might be difficult for D3 as well since those schools tend to focus on academic standards.

Among the D2 conferences mentioned above:
*GLIAC - probably not interested in another non-football school after UW-Parkside joins and will be down to 9 football schools when Tiffin leaves.
*GLVC - CSU would have to add men's soccer and softball to join since those are 2 of the 7 required conference sports (baseball, softball, m/w basketball, m/w soccer, and w volleyball).
*G-MAC - is now all small private faith-based schools with all but 3 schools in OH and WV, the other 3 are in KY, MI, and TN; the conference is stretched already without reaching out to Chicago.
01-16-2018 12:51 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #86
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
The numbers are in for Spring 2018. Chicago State's enrollment is just a tick under 2,800 as expected. However Full time equivalents have fallen to 1,350. This is important because if they fall below 1,000 they lose PBI ("Primary Black Institution") status.

Worse news, Paul Vallas audit determined that the default rate on Perkins loans is above 45%, and so the school is in line to lose that hugely important federal program. Total loan delinquency stands at $14,291,495. However another audit sampled 545 such debtors and found that 105 were deceased. Essentially the collections department does not function. The audits, which Vallas got done by outside teams, pro bono and for minimal host revealed many more issues and presented a laundry list of administrative reforms in the December board meeting.

The response of the board was to terminate Vallas, as "not a team player", the same phrase used when removing Dr. Calhoun. As of this moment we can declare all reform dead.

Current trajectory, even if the rate slows to less than half the current rate, by 2020 the school will have fewer than 2000 students, and fewer than 1000 FTE, will lose PBI status and be terminated from the federal student loan program.
01-30-2018 04:54 PM
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joshadam84 Offline
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Post: #87
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Stu— you might mention that Vallas planned to end his contract early (in March) in order to pursue running for mayor of Chicago. That played a significant role in why he was terminated now..

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/paul-v...-cut-ties/
01-30-2018 06:42 PM
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dancingNMSUaggie Offline
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Post: #88
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Josh. I don't get Chicago State. Almost beat Seattle on the road and get blown out by a bad CSUB team. What gives?
02-02-2018 10:52 AM
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joshadam84 Offline
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Post: #89
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
dancing — They’re just frustrating. And it’s not just about the L’s, but how they lose. Dildy continues to have them play a pressure defense, and I can’t tell you how many wide open layups/dunks occur as a result. They’re also terrible at rotating so they give up a ton of uncontested threes. They’re best in a man to man even if they’re outsized because their zone has been atrocious. Sadly, their offense isn’t much to brag about either. Their typical offense possession is Fred Sims Jr jacking up a shot with a hand in his face or someone driving to the basket out of control. They rarely run anything. Simmons is a decent post presence, and if they worked the ball in and out it could create open looks.

This has been going on for years (offense and defense), and as much as I like Dildy if he can’t change his style or recruit kids who play well within it (like 2013) then it may be time for someone else to come in.
02-02-2018 01:28 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #90
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(01-30-2018 06:42 PM)joshadam84 Wrote:  Stu— you might mention that Vallas planned to end his contract early (in March) in order to pursue running for mayor of Chicago. That played a significant role in why he was terminated now..

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/paul-v...-cut-ties/

This is true. But the reason are not shed there. It had as much to do with frustration at his 13 "challenges" being killed off as by his political ambition. Of the 13 required reforms, 9 were tabled by the board and administration, and 4 only preliminary elements enacted, none are likely to be carried through. All had to do with getting the financial and accreditation issues in hand (e.g., satellite programs were identified as one of the best distinguishing offers Chicago State has potentially going forward, but failures to comply with federal rules has the school on notice for non-compliance with certain student loans, and is in arrears some $1.7M with the feds -- meaning any such program cannot be done).

I did not delve into details, but the entirety of his report is available, and if you'd like I will publish it (very long).

In a nutshell Vallas identified most of the structural problems with the administration, it's account methods, staff training shortcomings, collections issues (huge), and facilities procurement & maintenance (including technology), which are rapidly eroding the ability of the University to function. They are very fixable, and they are not for the most part expensive. However, what has become clear also is that "reform" will only be supported if it keeps existing people and practices in place and does not bring in outsiders.Calhoun was ousted for similar reasons, although his focus was more on the academic structural problems at CSU.

This is why I declare reform dead. Two highly competent education professionals, one with a laser focus on faculty and teaching, the other on administration and processes, were ousted in a few short months for basically the same reason; they were going to change the way business was run and competent people would start replacing entrenched people. The not a south-sider cry is the common theme. I very much doubt any highly qualified person will be willing to accept this challenge given these two ousters.

Summer 2020 is a good over under for when the school shutters. (I think it'll slog on until 2022)

BTW, speaking of systemic failure, Chicago State's women have an excellent chance on Saturday when they play Grand Canyon (10-11, 4-3) to set the NCAA record for futility with 59 straight losses. The Cougar women are 0-22 and 0-7 in WAC. While not a reflection on the academic side, the athletic department is another which has many unfilled vacancies and an inability to acquire talent. (To take nothing away from the heroic effort of the over matched employees who do what they can with what they have; but its not D-I level stuff)
02-02-2018 04:26 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #91
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Chicago State has a ton of issues, but the issues can be resolved with good leadership. They have basic functions that are not working at this time: Accounts Receivable, Accounts Payable, Procurement, the ability to give leadership accurate month-to-month financial data. Marketing and a satellite campus might help. These can be fixed with good leadership.

According to Paul Vallas, Chicago State is “on the right track.” I don't know if Vallas is correct, but he was going to leave in July, so his leaving now to run for Mayor is just not a big deal. What is important, does the leadership exist to turn Chicago State around in the next 3-5 years?

The immediate problem for the WAC with regards to Chicago State is not about them leaving or getting kicked out. The immediate problem is their total lack of competitiveness. They are killing the conference RPI in every sport they participate in.

The non-conference "money games" are not helping their won-loss record, but they do bring in at least $500,000 per year in much needed revenue to the athletic program.

So how do they get back to fielding a competitive basketball program, which they did have from 2012-2014? Without sacrificing their "money games?" Or how do they field a decent baseball team or woman's basketball team? The WAC is not going to kick them out and they are not leaving. So how do they get more competitive in athletics?

That is the real question, not the "Death Spiral."
02-04-2018 04:49 PM
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CrimsonPhantom Offline
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Post: #92
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
They need an AD, not an AD/HMBBC.
02-04-2018 05:48 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #93
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(02-04-2018 05:48 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  They need an AD, not an AD/HMBBC.

I would agree with that.
02-04-2018 06:42 PM
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