I had an interesting conversation yesterday with an executive for the Mattress Firm (which is based out here in Houston).

He was talking to me about automation in the future and e-commerce in general and he told me the story that he was at a conference not too long ago where Jeff Bezos of Amazon was the featured speaker. Bezos mentioned there that his vision for Amazon in the future will be massive distribution centers that have two employees total - a security guard and a dog that basically is watching the security guard (which seems to me like 1 1/2 employees at best but I digress). Everything else there will be completely automated with machines, robots and drones - including the self-driving trucks that bring the merchandise to this center.

Both of us felt that this scenario is a long time off but knowing Amazon, this might be a future that our children see. As someone with two teenagers, I am trying to figure out what their job market might look like. It certainly will be a different market than what we see today.

In terms of working for Amazon at least, if Bezos' vision comes to fruition, I see three main types of job training necessary to work for Amazon. First would be computer programmers. Second security guards. And third, dog trainers.

(01-20-2017 07:47 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I had an interesting conversation yesterday with an executive for the Mattress Firm (which is based out here in Houston).

He was talking to me about automation in the future and e-commerce in general and he told me the story that he was at a conference not too long ago where Jeff Bezos of Amazon was the featured speaker. Bezos mentioned there that his vision for Amazon in the future will be massive distribution centers that have two employees total - a security guard and a dog that basically is watching the security guard (which seems to me like 1 1/2 employees at best but I digress). Everything else there will be completely automated with machines, robots and drones - including the self-driving trucks that bring the merchandise to this center.

Both of us felt that this scenario is a long time off but knowing Amazon, this might be a future that our children see. As someone with two teenagers, I am trying to figure out what their job market might look like. It certainly will be a different market than what we see today.

In terms of working for Amazon at least, if Bezos' vision comes to fruition, I see three main types of job training necessary to work for Amazon. First would be computer programmers. Second security guards. And third, dog trainers.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/.../95951942/

I love the 45,000 ft altitude warehouse/ drone port

(01-20-2017 07:47 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I had an interesting conversation yesterday with an executive for the Mattress Firm (which is based out here in Houston).
He was talking to me about automation in the future and e-commerce in general and he told me the story that he was at a conference not too long ago where Jeff Bezos of Amazon was the featured speaker. Bezos mentioned there that his vision for Amazon in the future will be massive distribution centers that have two employees total - a security guard and a dog that basically is watching the security guard (which seems to me like 1 1/2 employees at best but I digress). Everything else there will be completely automated with machines, robots and drones - including the self-driving trucks that bring the merchandise to this center.
Both of us felt that this scenario is a long time off but knowing Amazon, this might be a future that our children see. As someone with two teenagers, I am trying to figure out what their job market might look like. It certainly will be a different market than what we see today.
In terms of working for Amazon at least, if Bezos' vision comes to fruition, I see three main types of job training necessary to work for Amazon. First would be computer programmers. Second security guards. And third, dog trainers.

Plus jobs repairing and maintaining those pieces of equipment. And jobs manufacturing them. And jobs making the books and other goods that will go into those warehouses for sale. And those jobs will pay well, creating secondary jobs to serve them. It will be a different world, but one that will still work.

Here's the real problem. The jobs you list, and the repair and maintenance jobs, will need to be in proximity of the warehouses. The manufacturing jobs can be anywhere in the world. We want those jobs to be here, because that's where the money is. But as long as our taxes and our regulatory processes and procedures (note that I'm talking procedural, not substantive) remain as they are today, the incentives will be to take them elsewhere.

I think that there is a real danger that we could become the Wal-Mart country, nothing but retail and distribution of stuff made elsewhere. There's precious little profit in that, and there are precious few middle-class jobs. We have to get back into the value-added business, and under presently existing conditions that is not likely. And tariffs and border walls are not the way to get us there.

(01-20-2017 08:10 AM)smudge12 Wrote:  I think machine-servicing industry is going to boom and can provide very fruitful careers to a lot of people (provided we stay on top of training). People who can fix complicated systems, not only in factories but at homes where people are adopting these systems (but don't understand how to service them), will likely be in high demand.

Honestly, the best people adapt to a changing world and have no illusions their job will exist tomorrow; they're also willing to move to where the jobs are. I'm a mechanical engineer and still think that technology could eventually replace me in doing calcs and designes, so I'm learning to become an HVAC Certified Technician if I ever need anything to fall back on.

Good for you. My HVAC clients have difficulty finding quality techs despite the jobs paying well ($60,000+ and if you can get a tech/sales hybrid role, over $100,000 in some areas).

As the college dream is increasingly turning into a debt nightmare for young people, I think we will see more young people turning back to trades.

I just quit my white collar marketing job to work full time on the flooring company I started last year. It's not glamorous work, but I can make $1,000/day doing a garage floor. We've had a few industrial projects where we profited over $3,000/day.

Some people seem confused why I would quit my "good" job to go do dirty work, but the earning potential is huge and it's not like I'll be the one out in the field doing the installations forever anyway.

Technology is going to change the national work paradigm. Automation and robotics will replace workers. We just need to have a national focus on the US being the leader in robotics and automation. WE need to make the machinery...not Germany or Japan.

Our number one focus on creating high paying jobs for the next American boom must be bringing back the machine tool industry to our soil. THIS is where the quality jobs are...building, installing and servicing the machinery that MAKE things.

(01-20-2017 09:36 AM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Technology is going to change the national work paradigm. Automation and robotics will replace workers. We just need to have a national focus on the US being the leader in robotics and automation. WE need to make the machinery...not Germany or Japan.
Our number one focus on creating high paying jobs for the next American boom must be bringing back the machine tool industry to our soil. THIS is where the quality jobs are...building, installing and servicing the machinery that MAKE things.

Yep.

In the last 50 years we've gone from a factory/mill industrial system to a service/"knowledge" driven economic system and these
new ****** jobs won’t solve any social problems we now face.

Human beings of the future will have the same drives and needs we have now but the question is not "how do we preserve our current way of life?" but "what is our way of life going to be in 50 years?"

(01-20-2017 11:21 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  In the last 50 years we've gone from a factory/mill industrial system to a service/"knowledge" driven economic system and these
new ****** jobs won’t solve any social problems we now face.
Human beings of the future will have the same drives and needs we have now but the question is not "how do we preserve our current way of life?" but "what is our way of life going to be in 50 years?"

A service/knowledge driven economy is a prescription for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

We can't sustain an economy shuffling papers and delivering pizzas to each other. At some point we have to have some value adding steps in our economy. That means that our education system has to train for the jobs of the future, our infrastructure has to support high productivity in those jobs, and our tax and regulatory policies and procedures have to make us the most attractive place to locate those jobs. We are falling down, and badly so, in all three.

(01-20-2017 11:56 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  That means that our education system has to train for the jobs of the future, our infrastructure has to support high productivity in those jobs, and our tax and regulatory policies and procedures have to make us the most attractive place to locate those jobs. We are falling down, and badly so, in all three.

Yes, the real point is regulation kills jobs. And while most of our society accepts some regulation – speed limits, pollution limits in water and air, medical licensure and the like – there’s a thick gray line between “The government and regulation we need” and “Government and regulation that really exists only to give government something to do at best, and serve as the policy manifestation of some special interest or another at worst.”

And that kills jobs faster than any “infrastructure” project can possibly replace them.

Robotics and automation will be a boon to some small businesses as soon as they scale to the point where they are more affordable. I've seen robotics begin to enter the greenhouse and nursery business, where it has been sorely needed. They had been limited to stationary places performing seeding, pot filling, and plant transplanting duties. Now, there are fleets of mobile robots (similar to amazon's) that are able to move plants from one location to another, in all kinds of heat and weather, 24 hours a day. They have demoed robots that harvest things like cucumbers by examining the fruit to see if its ready, and using a laser beam to cut the cucumber from the vine.

The jobs then transform from low wage plant movers and harvesters to higher wage plant specialists (health, disease, production improvements) because the business can scale to the point where that job is now needed. Or logistics. Or any number of jobs that will now be required as the business scales up. Jobs which the company couldnt justify when it was bogged down in a scaled down version of itself due to the manual labor requirements.

(01-20-2017 07:47 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I had an interesting conversation yesterday with an executive for the Mattress Firm (which is based out here in Houston).

He was talking to me about automation in the future and e-commerce in general and he told me the story that he was at a conference not too long ago where Jeff Bezos of Amazon was the featured speaker. Bezos mentioned there that his vision for Amazon in the future will be massive distribution centers that have two employees total - a security guard and a dog that basically is watching the security guard (which seems to me like 1 1/2 employees at best but I digress). Everything else there will be completely automated with machines, robots and drones - including the self-driving trucks that bring the merchandise to this center.

Both of us felt that this scenario is a long time off but knowing Amazon, this might be a future that our children see. As someone with two teenagers, I am trying to figure out what their job market might look like. It certainly will be a different market than what we see today.

In terms of working for Amazon at least, if Bezos' vision comes to fruition, I see three main types of job training necessary to work for Amazon. First would be computer programmers. Second security guards. And third, dog trainers.

I don't think that we're far off.

AB-InBev already tested self-driving beer trucks a couple of months ago, and smart warehouses have existed for 10-15 years. Combine the two and you get his vision.

And I'm not sure AMZN will have any employees in the future. They missed earnings and their big idea/response was that they were going to open grocery stores.

(01-21-2017 08:07 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(01-20-2017 07:47 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I had an interesting conversation yesterday with an executive for the Mattress Firm (which is based out here in Houston).

He was talking to me about automation in the future and e-commerce in general and he told me the story that he was at a conference not too long ago where Jeff Bezos of Amazon was the featured speaker. Bezos mentioned there that his vision for Amazon in the future will be massive distribution centers that have two employees total - a security guard and a dog that basically is watching the security guard (which seems to me like 1 1/2 employees at best but I digress). Everything else there will be completely automated with machines, robots and drones - including the self-driving trucks that bring the merchandise to this center.

Both of us felt that this scenario is a long time off but knowing Amazon, this might be a future that our children see. As someone with two teenagers, I am trying to figure out what their job market might look like. It certainly will be a different market than what we see today.

In terms of working for Amazon at least, if Bezos' vision comes to fruition, I see three main types of job training necessary to work for Amazon. First would be computer programmers. Second security guards. And third, dog trainers.

I don't think that we're far off.

AB-InBev already tested self-driving beer trucks a couple of months ago, and smart warehouses have existed for 10-15 years. Combine the two and you get his vision.

And I'm not sure AMZN will have any employees in the future. They missed earnings and their big idea/response was that they were going to open grocery stores.

Amazon has consistently been way off on the consensus estimates for the past 4 quarters at least.

But when you add everything up, they are pretty much on the mark for the 4 quarters, because two quarters were heavy misses to the wrong side, and two quarters were huge misses to upside. It could be just a timing issue with how they are booking revenue or expenses.