(11-09-2016 03:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  They're useful if they are honest.

They weren't honest, we said it the entire cycle. They constantly over sampled Dems by 6%-15%, sometimes even 20+% in debate polls. They were trying to sell us a narrative, and failed miserably.

Pretty smart for a bunch of deplorable red necks !

(11-09-2016 03:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  They're useful if they are honest.

They weren't honest, we said it the entire cycle. They constantly over sampled Dems by 6%-15%, sometimes even 20+% in debate polls. They were trying to sell us a narrative, and failed miserably.

Why would "they" purposely tell the people through polls that Hillary was way ahead? All that does is cause people to stay home.

If the pollsters were really trying to influence the vote, they would have said Trump was ahead or it was dead even to force people to go out and vote.

(11-09-2016 03:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  They're useful if they are honest.
They weren't honest, we said it the entire cycle. They constantly over sampled Dems by 6%-15%, sometimes even 20+% in debate polls. They were trying to sell us a narrative, and failed miserably.

Well if you must sell your poll to the national media, I guess you better make sure you have something they want to buy.

Not polls per se, merely the methodology. A whole new method of estimating public support must now be formulated because traditional pollsters messed up this election about as much as you could've. Their formulas could not accurately account for Trump's unorthodox coalition and the apparent unwillingness of people being polled to admit they were going to vote for him, it'll be interesting to see how we go from here in trying to capture the 21st century 'silent majority.'

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article...32333.html


It wasn't the polls that failed, it was the pundits.

Can we agree that pundits are no longer of any use?

(11-12-2016 11:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article...32333.html


It wasn't the polls that failed, it was the pundits.

Can we agree that pundits are no longer of any use?

RCP tried to deflect from the polls, but thats BS. One of the final NH polls they included in their numbers had Clinton winning NH by 11 points.

Maybe we can get Longroom back online. That site was absolutely nailing it.

(11-13-2016 12:13 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-12-2016 11:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article...32333.html


It wasn't the polls that failed, it was the pundits.

Can we agree that pundits are no longer of any use?

RCP tried to deflect from the polls, but thats BS. One of the final NH polls they included in their numbers had Clinton winning NH by 11 points.

Maybe we can get Longroom back online. That site was absolutely nailing it.

And the other 6 NH polls had it from 1 HRC to 3 DJT. The other 6 accurately showed the margins to be razor thin in NH. So did the combination of the 7.

Who answers a personal call from anyone they don't know? Not me. Everything goes to voice mail. Ill call you back if I feel like it.

(11-13-2016 12:29 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-13-2016 12:13 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-12-2016 11:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article...32333.html


It wasn't the polls that failed, it was the pundits.

Can we agree that pundits are no longer of any use?

RCP tried to deflect from the polls, but thats BS. One of the final NH polls they included in their numbers had Clinton winning NH by 11 points.

Maybe we can get Longroom back online. That site was absolutely nailing it.

And the other 6 NH polls had it from 1 HRC to 3 DJT. The other 6 accurately showed the margins to be razor thin in NH. So did the combination of the 7.

MI - All MI polls had Clinton winning by 5 or 6 points. Trafalgar came out with a one day poll for 11/6 that had Trump up by 2. The avg was 3.6, outside the margin of error. But the ONLY reason is was that close was because of that single poll to help bring the number down to a 4 point miss.

MN - RCP doesnt even show an average for MN, because it would be absurd. The last poll in late october showed Clinton +10. Off by 8. Way outside the margin of error.

MO - RCP showed an avg of Trump +11. Trump won by nearly 20, so while the average correctly assessed the winner, it was morbidly off.

AZ - all polls and the average nailed this one.

CO - The polls were off on both sides of the margin of error on this one, allowing the average to be on the nose. But having crap offset crap to come up with a good number isnt something thats reliable. It was lucky.

FL- all polls were somewhat close and within the margin of error.

GA - Throw out the NBC poll that had Trump only up by 1, and they would have nailed it.

IA - All polls except for the des Moine register blew it. The Nov Loras poll was garbage with Clinton with a 1 point lead. Trump won by nearly double digits.

NV - Late polls were in alignment. Earlier polls were garbage.

NH - A poll that showed Clinton up 11 on Nov 6 was pure unadulterated garbage.

NC - 3 polls late were off 5, 6 & 7 points to CLinton's favor. Those are junk. They're outside of the margin of error. Way outside.

OH - All polls and the RCP average were pure unadulterated junk, missing by 5 points.

PA - Thank God for Harper and Trafalgar, who showed a tie and Trump +1. Every other poll was garbage. Dumpster fire garbage. Especially those in late October, unless you want to believe Trump surged 15 points in the final week there.

VA - The late polls were accurate, but the 13 and 15 point leads shown in October were probably garbage.

WI - COmplete and utter dumpster fire. The RCP average of polls was off nearly 8 points. A poo flinging monkey was more accurate.

Lots of us now use our cell phones as our Home phone and when we see a number come up that is not on our phonebook list? We let it go to voice mail. I think I probably got a call from a pollster or two. I saw a jump in out of state calls on my phone over the last 6 months or so. I never answered a single one of those calls. THIS could be a problem with the polls. The sampling has to be strongly slanted to people with land lines. People like me are not being polled. I bet there are a lot of us out there.

(11-13-2016 12:33 AM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Who answers a personal call from anyone they don't know? Not me. Everything goes to voice mail. Ill call you back if I feel like it.

The people who run the Quinnipiac poll will leave a message. They did that with me. Called me a bunch of times, but I only called back when they left a message.

(11-13-2016 12:50 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Lots of us now use our cell phones as our Home phone and when we see a number come up that is not on our phonebook list? We let it go to voice mail. I think I probably got a call from a pollster or two. I saw a jump in out of state calls on my phone over the last 6 months or so. I never answered a single one of those calls. THIS could be a problem with the polls. The sampling has to be strongly slanted to people with land lines. People like me are not being polled. I bet there are a lot of us out there.

Did they leave a message? You have yet to mention that in your attempt to constantly repeat the same thing over and over and over again.

(11-13-2016 01:09 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(11-13-2016 12:50 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Lots of us now use our cell phones as our Home phone and when we see a number come up that is not on our phonebook list? We let it go to voice mail. I think I probably got a call from a pollster or two. I saw a jump in out of state calls on my phone over the last 6 months or so. I never answered a single one of those calls. THIS could be a problem with the polls. The sampling has to be strongly slanted to people with land lines. People like me are not being polled. I bet there are a lot of us out there.

Did they leave a message? You have yet to mention that in your attempt to constantly repeat the same thing over and over and over again.

No...No...No...No...No...No...No...No...No...No...No..No...No...No...No

Final RCP average on Trump was 42.2%, he finished with 47.1%.

All of the polls claimed to have margins of error between 1%-3.5%. If the polls were credible, those results should be mathematically impossible.

The polls definitely sucked, but just like people pay attention to all those ridiculous NFL draft prognosticators - they will continue. All we have to do is treat what they are saying the same way we think of weather forecasts..........maybe right, maybe wrong.

(11-13-2016 08:40 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Final RCP average on Trump was 42.2%, he finished with 47.1%.

All of the polls claimed to have margins of error between 1%-3.5%. If the polls were credible, those results should be mathematically impossible.

There were undecided in those numbers. Those weren't 100%.

(11-13-2016 08:40 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Final RCP average on Trump was 42.2%, he finished with 47.1%.

All of the polls claimed to have margins of error between 1%-3.5%. If the polls were credible, those results should be mathematically impossible.

The margin of error assumes a representitive sample.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

(11-13-2016 12:33 AM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Who answers a personal call from anyone they don't know? Not me. Everything goes to voice mail. Ill call you back if I feel like it.

I heard that the response rate is typically about 4-5% for political phone-surveys. Which (if true) means these companies are having to make 19-24 calls to get one complete answer. That's not cheap.

Combine that with the fact that nowadays a lot of people do not live in the state indicated by their phone-#'s area-code. And a lot of people will claim an intent to vote but -- for whatever reason -- won't actually do so, when it's all said and done.

Plus, the refusal by some people to openly declare a political opinion that is contrary to the academic/political/media class. This isn't (yet) a widespread phenomenon but it only takes a small % to throw the scales off-balance.

I think the IBD/TIPP tracking poll finished with Clinton at +1, which is about exactly correct. I believe the same polling firm also came closest on Obama/Romney where Obama won by 3.8