1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Louisville

1. Alabama
2. Louisville
3. Ohio State
4. Wisconsin

That would be my guess...

(11-13-2016 07:59 AM)Otacon Wrote:  1. Alabama
2. Louisville
3. Ohio State
4. Wisconsin

That would be my guess...

I think you have it right. I can't see anyone of 2-4 that lost last night remaining in the top 4, but I will admit I don't always understand what the CFP does with these things. The process is ANYTHING other than transparent...interesting...but not transparent.

Michigan will stay in the top 4 with wins over Wisconsin, Penn St, Colorado. That said:

1. Bama
2. Ohio St
3. Michigan
4. Clemson
5. Louisville
6. Washington

I believe Ohio State will crush Michigan but won't win the Big 10 because Penn St will win out. The committee may be forced to pick 2 teams that didn't win their conference to be in the playoff.

(11-13-2016 08:25 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Michigan will stay in the top 4 with wins over Wisconsin, Penn St, Colorado. That said:

1. Bama
2. Ohio St
3. Michigan
4. Clemson
5. Louisville
6. Washington

I believe Ohio State will crush Michigan but won't win the Big 10 because Penn St will win out. The committee may be forced to pick 2 teams that didn't win their conference to be in the playoff.

The B1G Champ will get in IMO...

Ohio State will then be looking to be #4

I don't think Penn State gets in even if they win it.

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(11-13-2016 08:46 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I don't think Penn State gets in even if they win it.

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Penn State has A LOT of ground to gain

Where as someone like Louisville is hitting the backside of Clemson....they can't go up much higher without more chaos

Washington will still get in if they win out.

Also don't sleep on WVU. If they beat OU next week they will be in the top 4.

(11-13-2016 09:08 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Washington will still get in if they win out.

Also don't sleep on WVU. If they beat OU next week they will be in the top 4.

Agreed, if Washington wins out, they're in....but they still play Wash St. And Colorado. I think they lose again

West Virginia can make it, but they really need Washington to lose again or for the B1G champ to have two losses...that said, I think Oklahoma stomps them this weekend.

(11-13-2016 08:42 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-13-2016 08:25 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Michigan will stay in the top 4 with wins over Wisconsin, Penn St, Colorado. That said:

1. Bama
2. Ohio St
3. Michigan
4. Clemson
5. Louisville
6. Washington

I believe Ohio State will crush Michigan but won't win the Big 10 because Penn St will win out. The committee may be forced to pick 2 teams that didn't win their conference to be in the playoff.

The B1G Champ will get in IMO...

Ohio State will then be looking to be #4

I realize this has almost no chance of actually happening, but a Northwestern team that's currently 5-5 can still win the Big Ten Championship game. I doubt that they would get in the playoff if they won.

Anyway, my current top four would be 1. Alabama, 2. probably still Clemson, 3. Ohio State, and 4. Michigan, but you never know what the committee will do.

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Louisville
5. Clemson
6. Washington
7. LSU
8. Wisconsin
9. Auburn
10. Oklahoma

Note: Based on Jeff Sagarin's College Football Ratings

My dream 4.

1.Alabama
2.Western Michigan
3.Louisville
4.Ohio State
5.San Diego State
6.Boise State
7.USF
8.Clemson
9.Michigan
10.Washington

I know it will not happen. Big 12 are overrated, and so is the ACC schools and PAC 12.

To me, the week to week stuff really doesn't matter. I'm looking for the final 4. It's looking like this:

1) Alabama. They're pretty much in barring an epic meltdown. They've have to lose to Auburn AND Florida. And even then they still might be able to sneak it depending on what happens.

2) ACC Champion. It'll probably be Clemson. They still have to beat Wake and South Carolina and win the ACC Championship game. But that all seems doable. If Clemson loses to Wake, it opens the door for Lousiville. If both Clemson and Louisville lose, then this opens things up

3) Big 10 Champion. I'm not sure who this will be. But whoever it is will almost certain be in. There are some weird scenarios were a random team can some out of the West. But it seems likely one of Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, OSU, or Penn State wins out and takes it.

4) Wild Card. Washington seems to control their destiny the most here. Win out and a one-loss Pac 12 Champ seems like a definite. If they don't, the PAC 12 champ will have at least two losses. That opens the door for teams like Colorado and Washington St. But do they beat out other options for the college playoff? The SEC really only has Alabama. Florida is technically still alive, but would have to beat LSU, FSU, and Alabama to do it. Don't see that happening. West Virginia could still finish with one loss, but that's likely the Big 12's only good hope. Oklahoma or Oklahoma St could sneak in if they win out, but they'll likely need a lot of help. The team in the roughest position is Ohio St. Most people think of them as a Top 4 team. But like last year they almost certainly won't win their division. Let alone their conference. And OSU got left out last year with a stellar resume and one loss. They don't really have a path to the Conference Championship unless Penn State somehow loses to Rutgers or MSU. That seems unlikely. So they need a fair amount of help from other conferences losing (ACC, Big 12, and/or Pac 12). A one loss Ohio State that did not win its conference could get in over a 2 loss Washington State and 2 loss Oklahoma that did win their conferences.

(11-13-2016 11:55 AM)Jericho Wrote:  To me, the week to week stuff really doesn't matter. I'm looking for the final 4. It's looking like this:

1) Alabama. They're pretty much in barring an epic meltdown. They've have to lose to Auburn AND Florida. And even then they still might be able to sneak it depending on what happens.

2) ACC Champion. It'll probably be Clemson. They still have to beat Wake and South Carolina and win the ACC Championship game. But that all seems doable. If Clemson loses to Wake, it opens the door for Louisville. If both Clemson and Louisville lose, then this opens things up

3) Big 10 Champion. I'm not sure who this will be. But whoever it is will almost certain be in. There are some weird scenarios were a random team can some out of the West. But it seems likely one of Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, OSU, or Penn State wins out and takes it.

4) Wild Card. Washington seems to control their destiny the most here. Win out and a one-loss Pac 12 Champ seems like a definite. If they don't, the PAC 12 champ will have at least two losses. That opens the door for teams like Colorado and Washington St. But do they beat out other options for the college playoff? The SEC really only has Alabama. Florida is technically still alive, but would have to beat LSU, FSU, and Alabama to do it. Don't see that happening. West Virginia could still finish with one loss, but that's likely the Big 12's only good hope. Oklahoma or Oklahoma St could sneak in if they win out, but they'll likely need a lot of help. The team in the roughest position is Ohio St. Most people think of them as a Top 4 team. But like last year they almost certainly won't win their division. Let alone their conference. And OSU got left out last year with a stellar resume and one loss. They don't really have a path to the Conference Championship unless Penn State somehow loses to Rutgers or MSU. That seems unlikely. So they need a fair amount of help from other conferences losing (ACC, Big 12, and/or Pac 12). A one loss Ohio State that did not win its conference could get in over a 2 loss Washington State and 2 loss Oklahoma that did win their conferences.

I see it much the same. Alabama will get in barring a loss in both games or a really bad loss. Otherwise, I don't see the committee dropping them lower than fourth. Clemson may have had a one-point loss at home, but they will go on to win the ACC and the win over Louisville will prove huge when the committee is deciding between the two for a spot. The Big 10 is a bit murkier. If Penn State wins the division as expected, then Wisconsin should claim a spot in the playoff, assuming they beat PSU in the CCG. However, the Badgers have lost to both Michigan AND Ohio State, so I project that the winner of the OSU-Michigan game will get the spot ostensibly reserved for the Big 10 champ.

That leaves Alabama, Clemson and the OSU-Michigan winner with three of the four slots. Washington, Wisconsin and even Auburn and Florida have a shot to make their case over the next few weeks. I believe the Big 12 teams have already eliminated themselves and Louisville has to leapfrog too many teams, but still has a slim chance. So my guess is that the Big 10 gets two teams in the playoff, with Washington holding on to a possibility. Today's final four -- Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Wisconsin.

This week:
1 Alabama
2 Ohio State
3 Louisville
4 Clemson

5 Michigan
6 Washington

CFP?

My top 10 Today:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio St
3. Louisville
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Washington
7. Wisconsin
8. West Virginia
9. Oklahoma
10. Western Michigan

Many people have Penn St in their top 10 and they are probably deserving but they have 2 losses and got obliterated by Michigan. Colorado and Utah were also considered but both have 2 losses. Except for their Northwestern win (22-21 @ Northwestern), Western Michigan has won every game by no less than 2 touchdowns so I put them at #10. I would have them higher but their schedule isn't difficult and they tend to give up roughly 3 touchdowns per game.

New Year's Six Bowls Today:

Peach Bowl / Semifinal - Alabama vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl / Semifinal - Ohio St vs. Louisville
Rose Bowl - Washington vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - West Virginia vs. LSU
Orange Bowl - Clemson vs. Penn St
Cotton Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Western Michigan

It will be interesting to see what we get this week. I would be easy to just say Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Louisville, and Washington. But can well truly say Clemson is better than Wisconsin, Oklahoma, or USC?

I think it's time we stop with W/L playing a factor for every conference except the SEC.