(01-15-2019 04:20 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: Quote:or 3) recognize that the existence and continuance of some of these risks are due to our tentacles sometimes playing in places they shouldn't.
Some are, some aren't. Considering Tanq's identification of the big 4, I'd argue that 4) is probably the one most resulting from backlash against our tentacles.
Quote:So the 4 most obvious necessary need for force / force counters are:
1) Counterbalance on China / S. China Sea / 'Island buiilding' / Taiwan
2) Restraint on Russia
3) Restraint to Iranian expansionism
4) Maintenance of deterrence of Islamic fundamentalism from non-state actors
I'd add one more:
5) Keeping world trade routes open.
That's the one we took on at Bretton Woods. We bribed the West: Since your economy and military are in shambles, we'll help you get back on your feet by giving you open access to our markets, without requiring reciprocation, and protecting your trade routes, and in return you'll fall in behind and follow our orders in the Cold War. The problem is that it worked so spectacularly that we won the Cold War, and nobody has figured out what to do in the 30 years since.
We need the other countries to take on more responsibility for trade protection. The anti-pirate campaign in the Arabian Sea can be a template. With the Royal Navy getting two new carriers, and India building new carriers and boomers, we could align with the Commonwealth to cover a lot of it.
As far as Russia, China, and Iran, I support a policy of 1) helping our allies maintain a balance of forces within the region and 2) containing any regional disputes within the region. Russia, China, and Iran are basically land powers without has the kind of blue-water navy and mobile army and air force to project power outside their regions--yet--and they may never get there. So keep them contained and make sure there is strong enough regional opposition to keep them from going nuts.
That leaves 4) and that's the one that scares me. I don't think we are anywhere near where we need to be to deal with them. One thing we can do is back off the micromanagement and hope that calms them down a bit. Another is really figure out what is the best way to defend ourselves from all sorts of nontraditional threats, and do it. On thing that Chuck Schumer has said that I agree with (hey, Joe Biden has said one thing I agree with, too) is that we need much larger special forces. My thought there would be to turn the Marines into our commando force, along the lines of the Royal Marines, only a lot bigger.