Might we see a bit of realignment with Rustbelt peeling off to be more like the South and Blue-ness of the coasts expanding as we become more divided on economy, politics, guns, culture? Is it a problem? The maps are changing. Trump could win Florida, Ohio, and NC and STILL lose.

(11-05-2016 11:01 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Might we see a bit of realignment with Rustbelt peeling off to be more like the South and Blue-ness of the coasts expanding as we become more divided on economy, politics, guns, culture? Is it a problem? The maps are changing. Trump could win Florida, Ohio, and NC and STILL lose.

And, at this point, Trump could lose FL AND NC, and still win.

What is certain is that if Clinton loses the rust belt, she loses. No matter what. The dems electoral map consists of CA, NY, and the rust belt.

(11-05-2016 11:01 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Might we see a bit of realignment with Rustbelt peeling off to be more like the South and Blue-ness of the coasts expanding as we become more divided on economy, politics, guns, culture? Is it a problem? The maps are changing. Trump could win Florida, Ohio, and NC and STILL lose.

The maps are always changing. Its just a surprise it has been so steady over the last 16 years. Look at the Carter-Ford election. Things have almost completely flipped except that the northeast is still Democratic and the Great Plains still Republican.

The MSM talks about the inevitability of Democrats returning to their domination from 1932-1968 and in the House from 1932-1994, but they aren't looking at trends going the other way.

The Democrats have lost white people in the south. They are only getting 20-25% of the white vote in the Deep South. They are losing the white vote badly virtually all over even where they used to be competitive. While they are narrowing the gap in places and becoming more dominant in the northeast and west coasts, states like Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee are becoming more Republican. Wisconsin and West Virginia were totally dominated by the Democrats not that long ago and the Republicans are competitive in Wisconsin and have taken over West Virginia. And throughout the south, it was only 10-20 years ago in those states that the century + grip on state politics by the Democrats was broken. Democrats are pretty much disappearing outside the large metro areas except in predominately Black rural areas in the south.

I think there is a better chance that Georgia goes blue in ten years than Ohio.

(11-05-2016 11:40 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  I think there is a better chance that Georgia goes blue in ten years than Ohio.

I agree but it will be due to migration from the north more than Southerners changing.

I don't foresee the midwest changes its long-term basic character.

But Republicans should look at Trump and what he accomplished. A horrible candidate was able to make huge inroads with a populist message. If an actual politician that knew how to play the game and keep his mouth under control would have won this country in LANDSLIDE this time with Trump's message. The Republicans strict adherence to their dogma is making them irrelevant. Trump has at least shown a path.

(11-05-2016 11:40 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  I think there is a better chance that Georgia goes blue in ten years than Ohio.

Ohio is a swing state, 11% black, Georgia is 30% black, but the whites there vote like 85% for GOP prez candidates.

I agree wholeheartedly with ark above.

Trump could take MI, PA, NH, ME and WI while Clinton takes FL and NC. Circle that square.

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