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MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #21
Question RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(11-25-2016 03:29 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  My Pirates are going cheap again

Take good care of Sean Rodriguez for me, Good Owl.

Just saw this--not real sure the thinking here--he is listed as 1B, but also utility. Are we thinking mostly bench/pinch hitter here, or can he be a decent second baseman until Ozzy Albies is ready?

Would appreciate more insight on him and exactly what he does that you'll miss, HOOD, but yeah, we'll take care of him if you think that highly of him.
11-26-2016 03:03 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
Owners just caved on international draft. Hopefully that will get us to a new CBA and no lockout.
11-29-2016 12:47 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #23
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
they agreed on a new CBA:
Among the changes agreed to in the new labor deal, according to sources:
The luxury-tax threshold will jump from $189 million to $195 million initially, then gradually increase to $210 million in the final year of the agreement.
Teams that exceed the threshold will pay similar tax rates to the current deal unless they go way over the threshold, in which case their tax rate could jump to as high as 90 percent.
Teams signing a premium free agent will still be subject to draft-pick compensation. Teams over the luxury tax threshold lose a 2nd- & 5th-round pick. Teams under the threshold lose a 3rd-round pick.
Instead of an international draft, each team will have a hard cap on total bonuses it can give to foreign-born players.
Rosters will remain at 25 players before Sept. 1 and remain at 40 after Sept. 1.
The labor agreement is a five-year deal, covering the 2017-2021 seasons.

it'll be interesting to see what the hard cap is for foreign-born players.
11-30-2016 10:01 PM
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Post: #24
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
more nuggets....
all star game no longer linked to home field in WS. that will go to pennant winner with most regular season wins.
minimum DL stay down from 15 to 10.
ban smokeless tobacco for all new big leaguers.

If the Dodgers don't get their 2017 payroll under $235 million, it appears as if their tax rate would rise to an astounding 92 (yes, ninety-two) percent as a third-time offender subject to a 50 percent tax plus a 42 percent "surtax" for being $40 million over the threshold. Wow. Two different agents used the term "soft cap" on Wednesday night to describe the effect of a rate that high. But no matter what you call it, it's the strongest deterrent to spending to ever appear in a baseball labor agreement.

Starting in 2018, the season will start four days earlier, so that four extra off days can be included in the schedule. And there are new provisions requiring more teams to play day games when one or both teams face long flights after the game.
12-01-2016 09:48 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #25
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
Glad to know the winter meetings will proceed (wouldn't have without new CBA), because I need the Dodgers to do a few things (2nd Base!!!).

Thrilled with the all star game decision. Can you believe this is the first time this approach has been taken?

Lots of analysis re Dodgers and $235MM payroll. 92% is absolutely monstrous. General feeling is that Dodgers can (and will) get under for 2017. One reason is because they are unlikely to re-sign Jansen. And expectation is that payroll will decrease again for 2018 as others come off the books (Crawford, Ethier).
12-01-2016 06:59 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #26
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
Here's the problem they have. With Kershaw, Gonzalez, Ethier, McCarthy, Kazmir, Puig, Ryu, and Maeda they have a combined payroll already of 171.6 million dollars(along with all the dead money still on the books). They might be able to get down some, but what kind of team would they have?
12-02-2016 12:32 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #27
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(12-02-2016 12:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Here's the problem they have. With Kershaw, Gonzalez, Ethier, McCarthy, Kazmir, Puig, Ryu, and Maeda they have a combined payroll already of 171.6 million dollars(along with all the dead money still on the books). They might be able to get down some, but what kind of team would they have?

No doubt 2017 is going to be a challenge. They're actually closer to $164MM (includes Maeda bonuses). Add another $16MM for arbitration eligible guys (MLB Trade Rumors numbers) gets to $180MM. Then another $20MM or so for 40 man roster benefits and minimum salary players. So $200MM-ish, leaving $35MM for free agents. Taking a second look, that means not only no Jansen but probably no Turner as well. Maybe a couple of smaller signings (Rich Hill?) and a trade to get a 2nd baseman (that won't add to payroll, presumably). But it's gonna be tight! I think 2018 will have a lot more room to move, and 2019 even more so as more guys drop off the books.
12-02-2016 02:27 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #28
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(12-02-2016 02:27 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(12-02-2016 12:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Here's the problem they have. With Kershaw, Gonzalez, Ethier, McCarthy, Kazmir, Puig, Ryu, and Maeda they have a combined payroll already of 171.6 million dollars(along with all the dead money still on the books). They might be able to get down some, but what kind of team would they have?

No doubt 2017 is going to be a challenge. They're actually closer to $164MM (includes Maeda bonuses). Add another $16MM for arbitration eligible guys (MLB Trade Rumors numbers) gets to $180MM. Then another $20MM or so for 40 man roster benefits and minimum salary players. So $200MM-ish, leaving $35MM for free agents. Taking a second look, that means not only no Jansen but probably no Turner as well. Maybe a couple of smaller signings (Rich Hill?) and a trade to get a 2nd baseman (that won't add to payroll, presumably). But it's gonna be tight! I think 2018 will have a lot more room to move, and 2019 even more so as more guys drop off the books.

The number I got was from Baseball-Reference.
12-02-2016 03:20 PM
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Post: #29
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
looks like Nats may acquire Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates. Would be a huge upgrade- he would be replacing Danny Espinoza who would be non-tendered.

Talk about a good lineup then... Werth, McCutchen, Harper in the OF, Rendon, Turner, Murphy, and the 1 black hole in Zimmerman, and then catcher. Depending on the answers for Zimmerman and Catcher, that's a great lineup. 1-6 probably among the best in baseball....
12-02-2016 03:23 PM
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Post: #30
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
And Nats just acquired Derek Norris for Pedro Avila. So Nats have reaquired 2 of the 4 guys they dealt to get Gio Gonzalez.

I like the move. Avila 19 yr old pitcher who is likely 3-4 years away from the bigs best case. Played A ball this year with a 3.97 ERA. 92 k's in 93 ip. 10 homers. So not exactly a high level prospect...

Norris wasn't good but you think it could have been just a bad year. His OPS in the prior 3 years were .754, .763, and .709. This year was .583.
12-02-2016 05:19 PM
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HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Offline
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Post: #31
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(11-26-2016 03:03 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(11-25-2016 03:29 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  My Pirates are going cheap again

Take good care of Sean Rodriguez for me, Good Owl.

Just saw this--not real sure the thinking here--he is listed as 1B, but also utility. Are we thinking mostly bench/pinch hitter here, or can he be a decent second baseman until Ozzy Albies is ready?

Would appreciate more insight on him and exactly what he does that you'll miss, HOOD, but yeah, we'll take care of him if you think that highly of him.

Sorry about missing this for a week.

He mostly plays first base and in the outfield. He has decent power and great passion. He can definitely hold down second base. A type of player that every NL team needs.
12-03-2016 05:57 PM
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HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Offline
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Post: #32
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(12-02-2016 03:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  looks like Nats may acquire Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates. Would be a huge upgrade- he would be replacing Danny Espinoza who would be non-tendered.

Talk about a good lineup then... Werth, McCutchen, Harper in the OF, Rendon, Turner, Murphy, and the 1 black hole in Zimmerman, and then catcher. Depending on the answers for Zimmerman and Catcher, that's a great lineup. 1-6 probably among the best in baseball....

Our owner has gone cheap again.
12-03-2016 05:58 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #33
MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(12-02-2016 02:27 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  ...Maybe a couple of smaller signings (Rich Hill?)...

Looks like their close on this. Hearing 3 yrs $46MM. It's the right price I think. He's a #1 caliber pitcher but he's old and durability is a question. Dodgers desperately need a solid #2 starter. To avoid the big luxury tax penalty though, this is just about the only notable FA signing they'll be able to do. Any other 'big' acquisitions (2B) will have to be through trades that don't bring in a lot more salary than is leaving. Starting to feel like 2017 could be a 'treading water' type of year.
12-03-2016 11:13 PM
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Post: #34
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
Carlos Beltran to the Astros. I wonder if the fanboys will still boo him every time he touches the ball and comes to bat.
12-04-2016 01:36 AM
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Post: #35
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(12-03-2016 11:13 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(12-02-2016 02:27 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  ...Maybe a couple of smaller signings (Rich Hill?)...

Looks like their close on this. Hearing 3 yrs $46MM. It's the right price I think. He's a #1 caliber pitcher but he's old and durability is a question. Dodgers desperately need a solid #2 starter. To avoid the big luxury tax penalty though, this is just about the only notable FA signing they'll be able to do. Any other 'big' acquisitions (2B) will have to be through trades that don't bring in a lot more salary than is leaving. Starting to feel like 2017 could be a 'treading water' type of year.

the only problem that the Dodgers have is they're already right up at the tax threshold. And even now for next year, are sitting at around 145 million before any arbitration(estimated to be around 37 million). So that would be about 182 million.
12-04-2016 02:07 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #36
MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(12-04-2016 02:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-03-2016 11:13 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(12-02-2016 02:27 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  ...Maybe a couple of smaller signings (Rich Hill?)...

Looks like their close on this. Hearing 3 yrs $46MM. It's the right price I think. He's a #1 caliber pitcher but he's old and durability is a question. Dodgers desperately need a solid #2 starter. To avoid the big luxury tax penalty though, this is just about the only notable FA signing they'll be able to do. Any other 'big' acquisitions (2B) will have to be through trades that don't bring in a lot more salary than is leaving. Starting to feel like 2017 could be a 'treading water' type of year.

the only problem that the Dodgers have is they're already right up at the tax threshold. And even now for next year, are sitting at around 145 million before any arbitration(estimated to be around 37 million). So that would be about 182 million.

For this year anyway, it sounds like they're ok with the luxury tax and the first 12% surcharge (up to $235MM). We're hearing they're just trying to avoid the 45% surcharge. It can certainly be done, but I'm not sure they can be a division contender of they do. I keep hearing they're negotiating with Jansen and Turner, for example, but that's got to be lip service if they really are trying to stay under that top tax threshold.
12-04-2016 03:46 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #37
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(12-03-2016 05:57 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  
(11-26-2016 03:03 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(11-25-2016 03:29 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  My Pirates are going cheap again

Take good care of Sean Rodriguez for me, Good Owl.

Just saw this--not real sure the thinking here--he is listed as 1B, but also utility. Are we thinking mostly bench/pinch hitter here, or can he be a decent second baseman until Ozzy Albies is ready?

Would appreciate more insight on him and exactly what he does that you'll miss, HOOD, but yeah, we'll take care of him if you think that highly of him.

Sorry about missing this for a week.

He mostly plays first base and in the outfield. He has decent power and great passion. He can definitely hold down second base. A type of player that every NL team needs.

Thank you.
12-04-2016 10:08 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #38
MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
Sounds like the stove is finally heating up at the Winter Meetings. Dodgers stuff: Hearing Miami has offered Jansen 5 yrs, $80MM. That's a huge contract for a closer but I'm not surprised. All but closes the door on the Dodgers' chances to resign him. Dodgers have piqued Twins' interest in a Dozier trade. 2 yrs, $15MM left on his contract. wRC+ of 132 and ISO of .278 in 2016. That's gonna take some top level prospects. Still reading some wishful thinking about Turner but I can't figure out how the math works if they're going to keep him AND stay under the top tax threshold.

In other news, Shohei Otani is set to be posted next year. If you haven't heard of him, he's basically Japan's Babe Ruth, before he went to the Yankees. OPS of 1.004 and ERA of 1.86 in 2016. He's 22.

ETA: News just out confirming Rich Hill signing. 3yrs/$48MM. Hard to imagine he was probably the best free agent starter available. Slim pickin's out there.

ETA2: Melancon to Giants! That's a big swing. Fills a big need for Giants; leaves a gap for Nationals.

ETA3: Bryce Harper's next contract could be 10+ yrs and $400+MM, and Nats are beginning to prepare for life post Harper. (credibility alert: Bob Nightengale reporting)
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2016 10:36 PM by Brookes Owl.)
12-05-2016 01:23 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #39
MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
(12-02-2016 03:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  looks like Nats may acquire Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates. Would be a huge upgrade- he would be replacing Danny Espinoza who would be non-tendered.

Talk about a good lineup then... Werth, McCutchen, Harper in the OF, Rendon, Turner, Murphy, and the 1 black hole in Zimmerman, and then catcher. Depending on the answers for Zimmerman and Catcher, that's a great lineup. 1-6 probably among the best in baseball....

Dodgers are looking at McCutchen too. At 2yrs/$30MM remaining, he's a relative bargain.
12-06-2016 09:19 AM
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Post: #40
RE: MLB 2016-17 Hot Stove Thread
Unless the Dodgers are willing to go into that high tax department- I don't see it. Talking that Turner may get a 5 year 85 million deal which would be huge. That would push them over 200 million before all the arbitrations etc.
12-06-2016 09:27 AM
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