I picked Ga. Southern, Ark. State, and Idaho.

Why the Eagles? Let's face it: this conference isn't exactly murderer's row, and the Eagles still have the talent to get to six wins.

Voting NO for Georgia Southern. I thought they would fire their dual High School offensive Coordinators and OL coach on Friday. With that not happening, this offense will continue to sputter. They may not win another game this season

Remember, USA will very likely bowl if they get to 6-6. Remember that it is highly unlikely that all 80 bowl slots will be filled by 6-6 or better teams with less than 2 FCS wins. There is a rigid protocol for filling those other slots.

1) CCG teams that don't otherwise qualify. Not happening this year
2) 6-6 teams with 2 FCS wins. Currently there are only 2 teams that look like they might be in that pool....USA and Army
3) 6-7 teams that play at Hawaii
4) 6-6 or better teams in YEAR TWO of their FBS transition (sorry Coastal)
5) 5-7 teams using APR.

USA still needs to win 3 games. But their path isn't as steep as it would be had LSU still been on the schedule. Today will be critical. Win today, and we're looking 75% or above.

(10-28-2016 06:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Sun Belt has a good chance to get four more.

Ga Southern - @ Miss (L), ULL (W), @ Ga State (W), Troy (L) - 6-6 record
Idaho - @ULL (L), @TSU (W), USA (L), Ga State (W) - 6-6 record
ULL - Idaho (W), @Ga Southern (L), @UGA (L), Ark State (W), @ULM (W) - 6-6 record
USA - Ga State (W), @ULM (W), @Idaho (W), NMSU (W) - 7-4 record (ignoring second FCS game)

Here's where I see it. And I'm frequently wrong.

Ga Southern - 75% chance of beating ULL, 50% chance of beating Ga State in Atlanta. Some chance of beating Troy at home. I'd say 50-50.

Idaho - 50-50 at ULL, 50-50 at Texas State, 60-40 hosting USA, and 50-50 hosting Ga State. They look like odds on, but if they lose to ULL, then things start to look a bit dicey.

ULL - 50-50 with Idaho, 25-75 at Ga Southern, no chance at Georgia, 25-75 chance vs Ark State, 60-40 at ULM. They MUST beat Idaho and then pull off a minor upset vs Ark State or Ga Southern.

USA - 60-40 versus Ga State, 60-40 at ULM, 90-10 vs Presby, 40-60 at Idaho, and 80-20 vs NMSU. A win today would be really nice.

StAte - 75-25 vs ULM, 60-40 at Ga State, 90-10 vs NMSU, 25-75 at Troy, 75-25 at ULL, 75-25 at Texas State. They need 4, and I think they get there.

Ga State - 40-60 at USA, 40-60 vs Ark State, 60-40 vs ULM, 50-50 vs Ga Southern, 50-50 at Idaho. They need 4, but like USA, their schedule is surprisingly manageable. They'll need to get hot.

---

The Belt could get EIGHT teams bowling. But it would take some pretty unlikely scenarios.

Here's how I see them finishing

1) stAte - probably bowling
2) USA - probably bowling (at least for now)
3) Ga Southern - probably bowling (I think they beat ULL)

Maybe

4) Idaho - Maybe (if they beat ULL then they get moved into the probably pool

Not likely at this point

5) Ga State - If they beat USA they start moving up significantly
6) ULL - Can be done, but their schedule sucks.

Its just as likely that the Belt gets 6 bowl teams eligible as they do 4. 5 is where we probably land. We should know a lot more after today.

Here's the thing: I don't technically want a ton of teams bowling this year if they are bowling for bowling sake. I want five teams to go bowling that I know/firmly believe can go in and actually win. Any team that goes in and is automatically counted out because they haven't been consistent on the field or shown signs of improvement across the season makes the conference take a hit on national television.

Bowl games aren't the most watched thing in the world, but people do take note of them. If we were to send five weak teams from the Sun Belt to five separate bowls, only for all of them to lose, it would look worse on the conference than it does to send five teams bowling. The cons outweigh the pros. This is not to say that we should stop sending lackluster teams to bowls, but that is to say that the entire conference (App and Troy included) needs to pick it up and show big signs of improvement.

(10-29-2016 08:53 PM)rknj8993 Wrote:  Here's the thing: I don't technically want a ton of teams bowling this year if they are bowling for bowling sake. I want five teams to go bowling that I know/firmly believe can go in and actually win. Any team that goes in and is automatically counted out because they haven't been consistent on the field or shown signs of improvement across the season makes the conference take a hit on national television.

Bowl games aren't the most watched thing in the world, but people do take note of them. If we were to send five weak teams from the Sun Belt to five separate bowls, only for all of them to lose, it would look worse on the conference than it does to send five teams bowling. The cons outweigh the pros. This is not to say that we should stop sending lackluster teams to bowls, but that is to say that the entire conference (App and Troy included) needs to pick it up and show big signs of improvement.

USA needs to make no apologies to anyone in this conference for its' OOC performance.

(10-29-2016 11:28 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-28-2016 06:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Sun Belt has a good chance to get four more.

Ga Southern - @ Miss (L), ULL (W), @ Ga State (W), Troy (L) - 6-6 record
Idaho - @ULL (L), @TSU (W), USA (L), Ga State (W) - 6-6 record
ULL - Idaho (W), @Ga Southern (L), @UGA (L), Ark State (W), @ULM (W) - 6-6 record
USA - Ga State (W), @ULM (W), @Idaho (W), NMSU (W) - 7-4 record (ignoring second FCS game)

Here's where I see it. And I'm frequently wrong.

Ga Southern - 75% chance of beating ULL, 50% chance of beating Ga State in Atlanta. Some chance of beating Troy at home. I'd say 50-50.

Idaho - 50-50 at ULL, 50-50 at Texas State, 60-40 hosting USA, and 50-50 hosting Ga State. They look like odds on, but if they lose to ULL, then things start to look a bit dicey.

ULL - 50-50 with Idaho, 25-75 at Ga Southern, no chance at Georgia, 25-75 chance vs Ark State, 60-40 at ULM. They MUST beat Idaho and then pull off a minor upset vs Ark State or Ga Southern.

USA - 60-40 versus Ga State, 60-40 at ULM, 90-10 vs Presby, 40-60 at Idaho, and 80-20 vs NMSU. A win today would be really nice.

StAte - 75-25 vs ULM, 60-40 at Ga State, 90-10 vs NMSU, 25-75 at Troy, 75-25 at ULL, 75-25 at Texas State. They need 4, and I think they get there.

Ga State - 40-60 at USA, 40-60 vs Ark State, 60-40 vs ULM, 50-50 vs Ga Southern, 50-50 at Idaho. They need 4, but like USA, their schedule is surprisingly manageable. They'll need to get hot.

---

The Belt could get EIGHT teams bowling. But it would take some pretty unlikely scenarios.

Here's how I see them finishing

1) stAte - probably bowling
2) USA - probably bowling (at least for now)
3) Ga Southern - probably bowling (I think they beat ULL)

Maybe

4) Idaho - Maybe (if they beat ULL then they get moved into the probably pool

Not likely at this point

5) Ga State - If they beat USA they start moving up significantly
6) ULL - Can be done, but their schedule sucks.

Its just as likely that the Belt gets 6 bowl teams eligible as they do 4. 5 is where we probably land. We should know a lot more after today.

Georgia Southern with a 50/50 shot against Troy? Really?

(10-29-2016 09:11 PM)GoBigRed26 Wrote:  

(10-29-2016 11:28 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-28-2016 06:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Sun Belt has a good chance to get four more.

Ga Southern - @ Miss (L), ULL (W), @ Ga State (W), Troy (L) - 6-6 record
Idaho - @ULL (L), @TSU (W), USA (L), Ga State (W) - 6-6 record
ULL - Idaho (W), @Ga Southern (L), @UGA (L), Ark State (W), @ULM (W) - 6-6 record
USA - Ga State (W), @ULM (W), @Idaho (W), NMSU (W) - 7-4 record (ignoring second FCS game)

Here's where I see it. And I'm frequently wrong.

Ga Southern - 75% chance of beating ULL, 50% chance of beating Ga State in Atlanta. Some chance of beating Troy at home. I'd say 50-50.

Idaho - 50-50 at ULL, 50-50 at Texas State, 60-40 hosting USA, and 50-50 hosting Ga State. They look like odds on, but if they lose to ULL, then things start to look a bit dicey.

ULL - 50-50 with Idaho, 25-75 at Ga Southern, no chance at Georgia, 25-75 chance vs Ark State, 60-40 at ULM. They MUST beat Idaho and then pull off a minor upset vs Ark State or Ga Southern.

USA - 60-40 versus Ga State, 60-40 at ULM, 90-10 vs Presby, 40-60 at Idaho, and 80-20 vs NMSU. A win today would be really nice.

StAte - 75-25 vs ULM, 60-40 at Ga State, 90-10 vs NMSU, 25-75 at Troy, 75-25 at ULL, 75-25 at Texas State. They need 4, and I think they get there.

Ga State - 40-60 at USA, 40-60 vs Ark State, 60-40 vs ULM, 50-50 vs Ga Southern, 50-50 at Idaho. They need 4, but like USA, their schedule is surprisingly manageable. They'll need to get hot.

---

The Belt could get EIGHT teams bowling. But it would take some pretty unlikely scenarios.

Here's how I see them finishing

1) stAte - probably bowling
2) USA - probably bowling (at least for now)
3) Ga Southern - probably bowling (I think they beat ULL)

Maybe

4) Idaho - Maybe (if they beat ULL then they get moved into the probably pool

Not likely at this point

5) Ga State - If they beat USA they start moving up significantly
6) ULL - Can be done, but their schedule sucks.

Its just as likely that the Belt gets 6 bowl teams eligible as they do 4. 5 is where we probably land. We should know a lot more after today.

Georgia Southern with a 50/50 shot against Troy? Really?

Hey, I tried to pick every remaining game. LOL. Ga Southern played us tougher in Mobile than Troy and they host the Trojans. If you'd like to call it 40-60 or even 30-70, fine. I kind of see it as a tossup. It wouldn't be an Earth shattering upset if they pulled it off.

I picked stAte, Idaho, and USA. The 40 people who picked GS must have smoked a bowl. If our players haven't quit on these coaches yet...they should

Glad to see at least on person has faith in Texas State. Keep livin the dream!