It's possible (most likely scenario):

Washington (7-0) games left:
@Utah, @Cal, USC, ASU, @WSU, Colorado/Utah
Very doable. Utah and WSU are tricky but Washington should get the job done.

West Virginia (6-0) games left:
@OKST, KU, @Tex, OU, @ISU, Baylor
More challenging but I feel they can do it because they get OU and Baylor at home.

Clemson (7-0) games left:
@FSU, Syracuse, Pitt, @Wake, SC, UNC/VaTech/Pitt
If they can beat FSU, they should easily finish 13-0.

Alabama (8-0) games left:
@LSU, Miss St., Chatt, Auburn, UF/UK/Tenn
LSU will be tricky but this is one of the most dominant Alabama teams in recent memory.

Michigan (7-0) games left:
@MSU, Maryland, @Iowa, Indiana, @OSU, Nebraska
Ohio St. is tough, but Michigan looks better this year. Possible 12-0 vs. 12-0 in B1G CCG with Nebraska.

Boise State (7-0) games left:
@Wyoming, SJSU, @Hawaii, UNLV, @Air Force, SDSU
Very doable. Air Force hasn't impressed, but SDSU could be tricky.

Western Michigan (8-0) games left:
@ Ball St., @Kent St., Buffalo, Toledo, Akron/Ohio
Knowing the MAC, a weird loss may be coming for them, but they are favorites the rest of the way.

If this happened, Boise gets access slot. Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Washington in CFP. If UofL, Ohio State win out the contract Bowls become interesting plays.
WVU would face sec East champ or Texas A&M. Would the Rose reward Ohio State with the second team of the Pac12 or would the Orange select another Sec team for UofL to play? Interesting scenarios indeed.

I do not think they all would get Washington could lose to Washington State. WSU is unbeaten in conference play.

West Virginia could lose to both Oklahoma and Baylor.

Clemson could lose to FSU.

Michigan could lose to both Michigan State and Ohio State.

Alabama could lose to Auburn and LSU.

Boise State have a tough road with Air Force, Hawaii and Wyoming.

Western Michigan does have a tough Toledo who is unbeaten in conference play as well.

This time last year there were 12 unbeaten instead of 9. Two years ago there were only 3 at this point in time. Yet it seems to come down to 1 or 2 at the end.

(10-23-2016 04:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  This time last year there were 12 unbeaten instead of 9. Two years ago there were only 3 at this point in time. Yet it seems to come down to 1 or 2 at the end.

True, but they were clumped into a few conferences. The Big 12 (IIRC) had 4 alone.

Boise has Wyoming and WMich has Toledo, to contend with.

Before anyone gets all frothy thinking there will be 5 or more undefeated teams at the end of the season, look at this list below.

No one with any common sense would go to Vegas and bet their own money on a parlay, predicting that all of these undefeated teams will win their next game.

And this is just the next game for each of these teams.

Quote:Jared Shanker
‏@JShankerESPN

The playoff picture could look a lot different this time next week. Every undefeated team's next game is on the road

#10 WVU at Oklahoma State
#2 Michigan at Michigan State
#4 Washington at # 17 Utah
#8 Baylor at Texas
#13 Boise State at Nevada
#7 Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin
#3 Clemson at #12 Florida State

NEXT WEEK
#1 Alabama at #19 LSU
#20 Western Michigan at Ball State

2:01 PM - 23 Oct 2016

Boise plays at Wyoming, not Nevada.


Only for sure winners in that group are Michigan and Baylor. Nebraska will definitely lose. They've beaten no one. Wouldn't be surprised if they lose their last five.

In the 15 seasons in this century, there have been a total of 27 teams who finished their regular season (including CCG's) undefeated (9 of them in either the MWC or the WAC when they were separate conferences). Other than in years in which several undefeated teams did not have to play a CCG, there have never been more than two in a given year.

While it is still theoretically possible to have 7 undefeated teams this year, the odds against it are huge (or YUGE, if you are a Trump fan). Going unbeaten is really hard. We look at future opponents and say this team or that only has to get past Team X to do it. But, as often as not, it is an unexpected team that rises up (see Penn State).

There's way too much football yet to be played to be speculating about this now.

InESPN FpI chances of winning out (in order of Current FPI:

Alabama 41.1
Michigan 40.6
Clemson 33.5
Washington 25.3
WVU 7.6
Baylor 3.6
Western Michigan 70.3
Nebraska 0.1
Boise St 43.4

98 percent chance there will be at least one undefeated team. About 90% chance there is an undefeated P5 team.

(10-23-2016 05:32 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Before anyone gets all frothy thinking there will be 5 or more undefeated teams at the end of the season, look at this list below.

No one with any common sense would go to Vegas and bet their own money on a parlay, predicting that all of these undefeated teams will win their next game.

And this is just the next game for each of these teams.

Quote:Jared Shanker
‏@JShankerESPN

The playoff picture could look a lot different this time next week. Every undefeated team's next game is on the road

#10 WVU at Oklahoma State
#2 Michigan at Michigan State
#4 Washington at # 17 Utah
#8 Baylor at Texas
#13 Boise State at Nevada
#7 Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin
#3 Clemson at #12 Florida State

NEXT WEEK
#1 Alabama at #19 LSU
#20 Western Michigan at Ball State

2:01 PM - 23 Oct 2016

Western Michigan may have the smallest chance of losing out of that group.

Frog,

How on earth did you arrive at 98% and 90% ??

(10-24-2016 09:14 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Frog,

How on earth did you arrive at 98% and 90% ??

If Alabama has a 41.1% chance to go undefeated, they have a 58.9% chance to lose a game. Multiplying everyone's chances of losing at least one game gives you the chance they all lose at least one game. 1- that % is the % chance there is at least one undefeated team.

No.

If we assume those numbers are correct (which they're pure guesses, and completely unverifiable -- which I've proven to you before, no point going down that road again) and we assume the events are independent (which they absolutely are not), the following are valid analysis:


- Probability of every top currently undefeated P5 team winning out:

Alabama 0.411 * Michigan 0.406 * Clemson 0.335 * Washington 0.253 * West Virginia 0.076 = 0.107 %


- Probability of every top currently undefeated P5 team NOT winning out (ie, ending up with at least one loss):

Alabama (1 - 0.411) * Michigan (1 -0.406) * Clemson (1 -0.335) * Washington (1 -0.253) * West Virginia (1 -0.076) = 16.06 %