Hillarys national lead now within the margin of error.

Indi's are breaking towards Trump at double the ratio they were just 7 days ago.


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/...oints.html

BUT MUH FIELD OFFICES!!!

Anyone who was not married to a candidate by now was always likely going to either sit it out or vote for the outsider. Hillary is as much of a beltway insider as there is.

Just not sure there are enough of those undecided independents to offset the lockstep African American vote.

(10-27-2016 10:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Anyone who was not married to a candidate by now was always likely going to either sit it out or vote for the outsider. Hillary is as much of a beltway insider as there is.

Just not sure there are enough of those undecided independents to offset the lockstep African American vote.

This election is slightly different. Is the election a referendum on Hillary or Trump?

My guess is that HRC will land up ahead around 6-7 points.

This one is more a referendum for or against the status quo line their pockets establishment.

Indepedents are made up of Bernie Bros

(10-27-2016 10:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Anyone who was not married to a candidate by now was always likely going to either sit it out or vote for the outsider. Hillary is as much of a beltway insider as there is.

Just not sure there are enough of those undecided independents to offset the lockstep African American vote.

African American numbers will be down 15 percent and Trump will get 20 percent of those. They will not save Hillary.

(10-27-2016 10:45 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 10:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Anyone who was not married to a candidate by now was always likely going to either sit it out or vote for the outsider. Hillary is as much of a beltway insider as there is.

Just not sure there are enough of those undecided independents to offset the lockstep African American vote.

African American numbers will be down 15 percent and Trump will get 20 percent of those. They will not save Hillary.

I agree that black voting numbers will fall this cycle. Despite 8 years of a "black" president, they've pretty well been served nothing but **** sammiches. Why bust one's balls for Hillary?

They voted overwhelmingly for the last two Black Presidents, Bill & Obama , but the Love ends there . A large segment of Black voters have No Love for Hillary. Will They show up to vote election day ? that remains to be seen

Rath,

Which is why you're going to see X% of the overall vote for Trump. Because X% of voters are under the brainwashing of Trump's early message that he is somehow "different".

They're so desperate for someone "different" -- which means .... yeah!, and because ... yeah! -- that they'll believe someone who claims he is "different" even though he is clearly not.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elec...ightening/

Sounds like the media's efforts are having the opposite effect. Independents are turning to Trump. Like me, they are driving Republicans back to Trump:

"Something else we’re relatively certain about is that Trump’s gains are partly the result of Republicans returning home to his campaign. One piece of evidence comes from Gallup’s tracking of candidate favorables: Trump’s favorable rating among Republicans has improved from 64 percent to 71 percent over the past week. But his favorability numbers with the broader electorate are up only slightly, from 31 percent to 34 percent. That suggests that Trump’s gains have come principally among Republicans.
Another hint is in Trump’s polling over the past week in deeply red states such Arkansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming, where he’s gotten some of his strongest numbers of the year. No, these states were never really in any doubt, but they do contain plenty of Trump base voters, so the trend lines are useful to look at if we want to see how his base is behaving. (Trump’s also pulled back from the brink slightly in Texas, although he still appears to be in trouble in Utah.)"

MUUUUUUUH NATE!

(10-27-2016 02:16 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  MUUUUUUUH NATE!

MUH BACK!
MY POLLS,
AND MY ASS!


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Speaking of MUH NATE, we've yet to really discuss the fact that Hilldawg consistently UNDER performed her polling numbers in the primary, and Donald consistently OVER performed.

In states that Trump is -5 on election day, after accounting for the rigged polls, the under/over perform factor, the media bias, etc., it probably means he's +5. If he's -10, he's probably even. If he's even, he's probably +10.

I believe Alex Jones when he says that Trump's internal polls show him +15 nationally.

#landslide

(10-27-2016 02:40 PM)Kronke Wrote:  I believe Alex Jones when he says that Trump's internal polls show him +15 nationally.

#landslide

Alex Jones is very very smart. Muh Nate is a dummy.

Nate Silver is the guy who makes weekly NCAA tournament field projections and then crows that he got 65 out of 68 right on his final projection. Duh.

So you're saying the race is as obvious now as the NCAA tournament field right before the selection show?

Gonna be a Trump landslide! #yuge

(10-27-2016 07:40 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Gonna be a Trump landslide! #yuge

It's going to be 91-9. He'll beat Putin's 89% reelection win. His 2nd term will beat Saddam Hussein's 98%.

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