With Boise TBD, leading 14-3 over Utah St in the 3rd Q.

A bunch of teams picked up their first loss today, and a few more barely escaped the carnage (Baylor, West Va, Tennessee).

Power 5 Remaining Unbeatens

Big 10 - 4
Ohio St
Michigan
Nebraska
Maryland

SEC - 3
Alabama
A&M
Tennessee

ACC - 2
Clemson
Miami

Big 12 - 2
Baylor
West Va

Pac 12 - 1
Washington

Group of 5 Unbeatens

MWC - 2
Boise (pending)
Air Force

American - 1
Houston

MAC - 1
Western Mich

************

A&M and Tennessee play next Saturday in the only game of the week matching unbeatens.

Intraconference, all the unbeatens are due to face each other in the regular season (i.e. before the conference title game) except Clemson & Miami in the ACC, and Nebraska & Michigan in the Big 10. So the maximum number of potential unbeatens is 10 heading into the conference title games, and 8 after the title games.

It was a crazy week!

1. Alabama- Undefeated defending champs.
2. Ohio State- Crushed Oklahoma @ Oklahoma, has been very dominant they still have a chance for more big wins. Oklahoma win is looking weaker at this point though.
3. Clemson- Won @ Auburn, beat Louisville.
4. Michigan- Just knocked off #8 Wisonconsin.
5. Washington- Made Stanford look like they were a high school team.
6. Houston- Beat Oklahoma in Houston, again the Oklahoma win is looking less impressive. Houston will need help. They don't have the schedule or opportunity for big wins other than Louisville and it might not be enough at this point not knocking Houston at all, but it's reality.
7. Texas A&M- Won @ Auburn, beat UCLA, beat Arkansas.
8. Louisville- FSU win doesn't look as good, lost a close one @ Clemson.
9. Tennessee- Ugly wins, but they win. Beat Florida, Virginia Tech and Georgia.
10. Wisconsin- Can't drop them too much for a 7 point loss @ Michigan. Wins over LSU and Michigan State both wins look to be good but not great wins at this point and they may become average wins before the season is finished.


That's how I'd rank the playoff teams as of now. Can't drop Houston regardless of what anyone thinks. They are a good team. The biggest issue with them is gonna be at the end of the season when the committee sits down and goes over the overall body of work.

Last season's playoff teams. (Before bowls/playoff)

1. 13-0 Clemson- beat 8-4 Louisville, 10-2 App State, 10-2 Notre Dame, 10-2 FSU, 11-1 North Carolina. 3 top 25 wins. (Won the ACC)

2. 12-1 Alabama- beat 9-3 Wisconsin, 9-3 Ole Miss, 9-3 Georgia, 8-4 Texas A&M, 7-5 Arkansas, 8-4 Tennessee, 8-3 LSU, 8-4 Mississippi State, 6-6 Auburn, 10-3 Florida. 6 top 25 wins, 1 top 25 loss. (Won the SEC)

3. 12-1 Michigan State- beat 9-3 Michigan, 11-1 Ohio State, 12-1 Iowa, 9-3 Oregon, 7-5 Penn State. 4 top 25 wins. (Won the B1G)

4. 11-1 Oklahoma- beat 8-4 Tennessee, 7-5 West Virginia, 7-5 Texas Tech, 9-3 Baylor, 10-2 TCU, 10-2 Oklahoma State. 5 top 25 wins. (Won the Big 12)


There are alot of big games left. We'll see what happens.

Boise State won. So they are still with no loss.

Houston could get in if the Big 12, PAC 12, ACC and Big 10 get champs with 2 or more losses. They still could eat each other up. Clemson wins last year were ugly wins when those teams they beat almost lost to teams that were below .500.

(10-02-2016 06:37 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State won. So they are still with no loss.

Houston could get in if the Big 12, PAC 12, ACC and Big 10 get champs with 2 or more losses. They still could eat each other up. Clemson wins last year were ugly wins when those teams they beat almost lost to teams that were below .500.

It's gonna depend on body of work.

If Oklahoma ends up with 4-5 losses that win means absolutely nothing when pairing it with nothing else.

If Houston goes undefeated in the American it wouldn't prove anything to the committee. The only team with a great OOC win currently is Houston.

Memphis lost to Ole Miss 48-28.
Temple lost to Army 28-13.
Tulsa lost to Ohio State 48-3.
UCF lost to Michigan 51-14.
SMU lost to Baylor 40-13.
Temple lost to Penn State 34-27.
East Carolina lost to South Carolina 20-15.
UCF lost to Maryland 30-24.
SMU lost to TCU 33-3.
South Florida lost to Florida State 55-35.
ECU lost to Virginia Tech 54-17.
UConn lost to Syracuse 31-24.
Navy lost to Air Force 28-14.

The wins vs P5.

Houston beat Oklahoma 33-23.
ECU beat NC State 33-30.
Cincy beat Purdue 38-20.
Memphis beat Kansas 43-7.
UConn beat Virginia 13-10.
South Florida beat Syracuse 45-20

Other than Oklahoma there isn't 1 good P5 win. If that Oklahoma win turns into a win over a 4-5 loss P5 team then what makes it so special? Houston would have beaten the same team 3-4 other P5 teams beat. Hell Ohio State beat them @ Oklahoma by 3 TD's.

Houston's schedule.

1. Oklahoma W
2. Lamar W
3. @ Cincy W
4. Texas State W
5. UConn W
6. @ Navy
7. Tulsa
8. @ SMU
9. UCF
10. Tulane
11. Louisville
12. @ Memphis

That schedule just doesn't compare to what the other P5 champs will have.

In fact I'll challenge you further.

What would Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington, Stanford, Louisville, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas A&M, Miami, Baylor, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and so on finish record wise against the same schedule?

They get Oklahoma and Louisville at home.

This is the stuff the committee looks at when it comes to the body of work. That's why Houston is at a disadvantage. They can't reward them for playing that schedule and punish teams that played 5-6-7 top 25 opponents with a loss or 2. The Pac 12 champ could have a loss as well and get in. Washington has the path right now but any 1 loss Pac 12 team would get in if it happens. Last season the Champ had 2 losses which is why they were left out to undefeated and 1 loss P5 champs.

I like Houston and think they have a great team but be realistic.

Here's the kicker in my opinion.

If Houston beats Louisville and Louisville and Oklahoma end up winning the ACC/Big 12, then how could you put those teams in over Houston if they have the head to head. In that situation I don't think they could.

Houston would have to be in in my opinion. It would then be like this.

1. SEC champ
2. B1G champ
3. Pac 12 Champ 2 or less losses.
4. Houston

Right now Clemson would have to lose 2 conference games in order to not be in the ACC Champ game, so the odds are against Louisville winning the ACC as of right now.

So in that situation this as of right now seems more realistic.

1. SEC
2. B1G
3. PAC 12
4. ACC

There are also crazy scenarios that could include 2 teams from the same conference.

For example.

Tennessee goes 12-0 regular season that would be #1 hands down.
Alabama goes 11-1 Regular season with only loss to Tennessee. (Top 5)

Alabama beats Tennessee is the SEC Champ game.

Tennessee drops to 4.
Alabama rises to 2.

There is just so much football left to play. No one is counting Houston out but people who think they should get in because they run through the American need to be realistic and look at all possibilities.

I had Houston @ Number 4 after week 2.

Things have changed because of Oklahoma getting destroyed and other teams winning top 10 games.

So far this season has been crazy and there is still alot of football left to play. No one is counting Houston out yet, some of us are just saying they will need some help.

(10-02-2016 07:56 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 06:37 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State won. So they are still with no loss.

Houston could get in if the Big 12, PAC 12, ACC and Big 10 get champs with 2 or more losses. They still could eat each other up. Clemson wins last year were ugly wins when those teams they beat almost lost to teams that were below .500.

It's gonna depend on body of work.

If Oklahoma ends up with 4-5 losses that win means absolutely nothing when pairing it with nothing else.

If Houston goes undefeated in the American it wouldn't prove anything to the committee. The only team with a great OOC win currently is Houston.

Memphis lost to Ole Miss 48-28.
Temple lost to Army 28-13.
Tulsa lost to Ohio State 48-3.
UCF lost to Michigan 51-14.
SMU lost to Baylor 40-13.
Temple lost to Penn State 34-27.
East Carolina lost to South Carolina 20-15.
UCF lost to Maryland 30-24.
SMU lost to TCU 33-3.
South Florida lost to Florida State 55-35.
ECU lost to Virginia Tech 54-17.
UConn lost to Syracuse 31-24.
Navy lost to Air Force 28-14.

The wins vs P5.

Houston beat Oklahoma 33-23.
ECU beat NC State 33-30.
Cincy beat Purdue 38-20.
Memphis beat Kansas 43-7.
UConn beat Virginia 13-10.
South Florida beat Syracuse 45-20

Other than Oklahoma there isn't 1 good P5 win. If that Oklahoma win turns into a win over a 4-5 loss P5 team then what makes it so special? Houston would have beaten the same team 3-4 other P5 teams beat. Hell Ohio State beat them @ Oklahoma by 3 TD's.

Houston's schedule.

1. Oklahoma W
2. Lamar W
3. @ Cincy W
4. Texas State W
5. UConn W
6. @ Navy
7. Tulsa
8. @ SMU
9. UCF
10. Tulane
11. Louisville
12. @ Memphis

That schedule just doesn't compare to what the other P5 champs will have.

In fact I'll challenge you further.

What would Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington, Stanford, Louisville, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas A&M, Miami, Baylor, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and so on finish record wise against the same schedule?

They get Oklahoma and Louisville at home.

This is the stuff the committee looks at when it comes to the body of work. That's why Houston is at a disadvantage. They can't reward them for playing that schedule and punish teams that played 5-6-7 top 25 opponents with a loss or 2. The Pac 12 champ could have a loss as well and get in. Washington has the path right now but any 1 loss Pac 12 team would get in if it happens. Last season the Champ had 2 losses which is why they were left out to undefeated and 1 loss P5 champs.

I like Houston and think they have a great team but be realistic.

Here's the kicker in my opinion.

If Houston beats Louisville and Louisville and Oklahoma end up winning the ACC/Big 12, then how could you put those teams in over Houston if they have the head to head. In that situation I don't think they could.

Houston would have to be in in my opinion. It would then be like this.

1. SEC champ
2. B1G champ
3. Pac 12 Champ 2 or less losses.
4. Houston

Right now Clemson would have to lose 2 conference games in order to not be in the ACC Champ game, so the odds are against Louisville winning the ACC as of right now.

So in that situation this as of right now seems more realistic.

1. SEC
2. B1G
3. PAC 12
4. ACC

There are also crazy scenarios that could include 2 teams from the same conference.

For example.

Tennessee goes 12-0 regular season that would be #1 hands down.
Alabama goes 11-1 Regular season with only loss to Tennessee. (Top 5)

Alabama beats Tennessee is the SEC Champ game.

Tennessee drops to 4.
Alabama rises to 2.

There is just so much football left to play. No one is counting Houston out but people who think they should get in because they run through the American need to be realistic and look at all possibilities.

I had Houston @ Number 4 after week 2.

Things have changed because of Oklahoma getting destroyed and other teams winning top 10 games.

So far this season has been crazy and there is still alot of football left to play. No one is counting Houston out yet, some of us are just saying they will need some help.

I wish 6 or 7 teams would finish unbeaten just so there is an impetus for changing the playoff to eight teams

(10-02-2016 09:17 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I wish 6 or 7 teams would finish unbeaten just so there is an impetus for changing the playoff to eight teams

That is not possible. The most you could get is 5 unbeatens (1 from each P5). The G5 unbeatens are a non-factor unless they have a good OOC schedule (i.e. Houston).

I hope there's 3 G5s undefeated this year (Houston, Boise St, WMU) @ 13-0 each.

It would SCREAM for an ACTUAL Playoff.

(10-02-2016 02:30 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  I hope there's 3 G5s undefeated this year (Houston, Boise St, WMU) @ 13-0 each.

It would SCREAM for an ACTUAL Playoff.

I'd at least settle for the best G5 team to make an 8-team playoff.

Say Houston goes undefeated and plays in the New Year's bowl. Would we see WMU play Boise St then, or would WMU play the Sun Belt/CUSA champ?

Quote:Say Houston goes undefeated and plays in the New Year's bowl. Would we see WMU play Boise St then, or would WMU play the Sun Belt/CUSA champ?

Like last year, ESPN would pull strings and have a MAC vs MW game (Boise vs NIU last year). Except there'd be even More pressure to do so, as NIU didn't even win the MAC last year.

13-0 WMU vs 13-0 Boise State would be a bowl all college football fans would want to watch. If they were both 13-0 and Houston in the NY6, it's as sure as me not having a threesome with 2 super models that they'd be playing each other in a bowl. :)

(10-02-2016 12:07 PM)wleakr Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 09:17 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I wish 6 or 7 teams would finish unbeaten just so there is an impetus for changing the playoff to eight teams

That is not possible. The most you could get is 5 unbeatens (1 from each P5). The G5 unbeatens are a non-factor unless they have a good OOC schedule (i.e. Houston).

Of course it's possible.

Washington
Houston
Clemson
Alabama
Ohio State
Baylor
Boise State

Now is that probable? Of course not. But I'm in favor of chaos.

(10-02-2016 06:53 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:07 PM)wleakr Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 09:17 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I wish 6 or 7 teams would finish unbeaten just so there is an impetus for changing the playoff to eight teams

That is not possible. The most you could get is 5 unbeatens (1 from each P5). The G5 unbeatens are a non-factor unless they have a good OOC schedule (i.e. Houston).

Of course it's possible.

Washington
Houston
Clemson
Alabama
Ohio State
Baylor
Boise State

Now is that probable? Of course not. But I'm in favor of chaos.

As I mentioned, the G5 unbeatens are a non-factor, as they are unlikely to make the playoff. There are literally only a couple of G5 that could even possibility be in the discussion and that's only IF they have good OOC wins plus a combination of P5 with sufficient losses.

Take away your G5 above and you're left with 5 P5 (as I stated); 1 from each conference.

Those 7 unbeatens above would not cause any chaos; the committee will take the top 4 P5 and leave the rest on the cutting room floor. The only one with a gripe would be the left out unbeaten P5.

SEC will be nuts with UT, A&M and Alabama playing a three week round robin coming up.

10/8 UT at A&M
10/15 Alabama @ UT
10/22 A&M @ Alabama

10/8 Alabama is at Arky.

This will get interesting fast..

Quote:Of course it's possible.

Washington
Houston
Clemson
Alabama
Ohio State
Baylor
Boise State

+Western Michigan

That'd be 8 teams. People would be like "Why not have an 8 team playoff?" :)

Personally, I think a 12-team playoff requiring any ranked Conf Champ to go (which would virtually guarantee 1-2 G5s a year going usually, while every 5-7 years an unranked top-G5 deservingly not going).

#1-#4 teams get a 1st round bye
#5-#12 teams play 1st round to reduce 8 -> 4 teams
#1-#4 teams play the above 8->4 teams in an 8 team 2nd round playoff toward the championship.

This year, in this scenario, you could have 3 G5s going, even without them All being undefeated [+ avoiding same-conf team games early]:

#5 Baylor (11-1) vs #12 Boise State (12-1) ---> vs #4 Washington (13-0)
#8 Tennessee (12-1) vs #9 Houston (12-1) ---> vs #1 Alabama (13-0)

#6 Michigan (11-1) vs #11 Western Michigan (13-0) ---> vs #3 Clemson (13-0)
#7 Louisville (11-1) vs #10 Texas A&M (11-1) ---> vs #2 Ohio State (13-0)

I guess should add this here rather than add a new thread for it.

Teams with 1st Loss Week 5: 11
Stanford
Toledo
Wisconsin
Navy
Wake Forest
Minnesota
Utah
Memphis
San Diego State
Louisville
Arizona State

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 5: 12
Georgia
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Texas
Iowa
Ball State
Purdue
Kansas State
Texas Christian
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Michigan State

Teams with 1st Win: 1
Florida International
Northern Illinois

Percent of Teams with 1st loss:
Week 1: 34.38% (44 of 128)
Week 2: 42.85% (36 of 84)
Week 3: 20.92% (11 of 48)
Week 4: 27.03% (10 of 37)
Week 5: 42.31% (11 of 27)

Maximum number of undefeated teams: 8
-I have not looked through all the schedules, but with the loss of Louisville, I do not believe there are any remaining possible non-conference games between undefeated teams.

Week 5 Thoughts:
-We had, a season high, 42.31% of undefeated teams lose. That seems pretty late for a season high (until we get to smaller numbers), but it was a great week with close games, big games, and the like.

-The most significant games of the weekend were probably undefeated Tennessee beating Georgia, undefeated Clemson over Louisville, and undefeated Washington over Stanford. Undefeated Michigan over Wisconsin also holds a lot of significance, but easier for Wisconsin to rebound from that in my opinion. Louisville, Georgia, and Stanford now all likely need the teams that beat them to lose 2 to have a chance at winning their conferences even if they are perfect the rest of the way. Louisville loosing also hurts undefeated Houston who needs as many quality wins as possible to have a chance at making the Fiesta/Peach Bowls (only relevant if they win till then, but definitely something fans are watching).

Week 6 Thoughts:
-We have only 1 game between undefeated teams this week. Tennessee goes to Texas A&M. This is big for both, but possibly a bit bigger for Tennessee. Their 2 SEC West crossover opponents are Texas A&M and Alabama (arguably the best two). If they drop both, Georgia or Florida could beat them out by winning out despite their loss to the Vols. On the other hand, win one and the rest of the schedule is much easier on the backend.

-Other interesting games:
Undefeated Clemson goes to Boston College on Friday. I don’t think Boston College is good enough to win this, but it is a short week after a big win and on the road.
Undefeated Houston plays at Navy. This might well be their toughest game until Louisville.
Undefeated Alabama plays at Arkansas.
Undefeated Miami (FL) hosts Florida State.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 4, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 3, total: 16
Clemson
Maryland
Miami (FL)
Nebraska
Baylor
Texas A&M
West Virginia
Michigan
Ohio State
Houston
Western Michigan
Air Force
Washington
Tennessee
Alabama
Boise State

1-Loss Teams: ACC: 5, American: 4, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 1, Total: 27
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Troy
Tulsa
Middle Tennessee
Eastern Michigan
Virginia Tech
Texas Tech
Colorado
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern
Army
Arkansas
South Florida
Florida
Indiana
Stanford
Toledo
Wisconsin
Navy
Wake Forest
Minnesota
Utah
Memphis
San Diego State
Louisville
Arizona State

Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 0, Big 12: 0, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Sun Belt: 2, total: 4

Rice
Miami (OH)
Georgia State
Arkansas State

(10-02-2016 08:57 PM)wleakr Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 06:53 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:07 PM)wleakr Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 09:17 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I wish 6 or 7 teams would finish unbeaten just so there is an impetus for changing the playoff to eight teams

That is not possible. The most you could get is 5 unbeatens (1 from each P5). The G5 unbeatens are a non-factor unless they have a good OOC schedule (i.e. Houston).

Of course it's possible.

Washington
Houston
Clemson
Alabama
Ohio State
Baylor
Boise State

Now is that probable? Of course not. But I'm in favor of chaos.

As I mentioned, the G5 unbeatens are a non-factor, as they are unlikely to make the playoff. There are literally only a couple of G5 that could even possibility be in the discussion and that's only IF they have good OOC wins plus a combination of P5 with sufficient losses.

Take away your G5 above and you're left with 5 P5 (as I stated); 1 from each conference.

Those 7 unbeatens above would not cause any chaos; the committee will take the top 4 P5 and leave the rest on the cutting room floor. The only one with a gripe would be the left out unbeaten P5.

My point was that this scenario could be the impetus for a change in the playoff formula. That's all I'm saying.

(10-02-2016 03:31 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Say Houston goes undefeated and plays in the New Year's bowl. Would we see WMU play Boise St then, or would WMU play the Sun Belt/CUSA champ?

Like last year, ESPN would pull strings and have a MAC vs MW game (Boise vs NIU last year). Except there'd be even More pressure to do so, as NIU didn't even win the MAC last year.

13-0 WMU vs 13-0 Boise State would be a bowl all college football fans would want to watch. If they were both 13-0 and Houston in the NY6, it's as sure as me not having a threesome with 2 super models that they'd be playing each other in a bowl. :)

Call it the Bronco Bowl!