Clinton 44% (+0.6)
Trump 43.4%
-- @USCDornsife/@LAtimes Daybreak Tracking Poll (8/17)

Clinton 41% (+2)
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%
-- @Rasmussen_Poll

Clinton 41% (+1)
Trump 40%
Johnson(L) 10%
Stein (G) 4%
-- PPD Daily Tracking Poll (8/17)

Hillary Clinton 38% (+2)
Donald Trump 36%
Gary Johnson 8%
Jill Stein 5%
Not sure 13%
-- Zogby Analytics survey

Fourth poll confirms: Trump battles back. Rasmussen 2-point race (Zogby, PPD, USC all show Trump surge, Cankles crash).
-- @LarrySchweikart

WHO DAT KNOCKING ON MY DOOR

So to disprove that Trump is losing in all the polls, you produce four polls in which Trump is losing?

That Trump spox got pwned.

(08-18-2016 11:12 AM)Max Power Wrote:  So to disprove that Trump is losing in all the polls, you produce four polls in which Trump is losing?

That Trump spox got pwned.

within the margin of error ...

HAPPY TRAILS TO YOU

If your candidate can't produce a single poll showing him not losing, he's losing.

(08-18-2016 11:18 AM)Max Power Wrote:  If your candidate can't produce a single poll showing him not losing, he's losing.

Well now You know that ole "NASCAR SAYING" If You Ain't Cheatin,' Ya Ain't Winnin" !

Clinton 41% (+4)
Trump 37%
Johnson 10
Stein 4
-- @pewresearch
http://www.people-press.org/2016/08/18/1...eferences/ …

BELT TIGHTENING

(08-18-2016 11:18 AM)Max Power Wrote:  If your candidate can't produce a single poll showing him not losing, he's losing.

Statistics is your friend. I get what you are saying but if one is winning within the margin of error the poll isn't really saying that person is winning. They could be winning, or they could be tied, or they could be losing.

Statistics is your friend too :) Your mistake is that you're looking at the poll in a vacuum. If all the other evidence supports the real result being in the MOE extended in one direction, there isn't an equal likelihood that the truth is in the other.

Example:

If 10 polls show a generic candidate +7, and one poll finds him only +2, it's far more likely that the part of the 95% confidence interval the truth lies is in the part that's higher than 2. Because otherwise, all of those aforementioned polls showing her +7 were WAY off, outside of all of their MsOE. So it's a near certainty that the generic candidate is winning, because if he wasn't, at least ONE of the 11 polls would show him ahead. You can look at the +2 and reasonably conclude it understates his support.

Now, if we take that +2 and say there's 5 polls showing him +4 and 5 showing it tied, then yeah, maybe we can extend the margin of error equally both ways.