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"New Media" pivotal to AAC
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #1
"New Media" pivotal to AAC
http://www.campusrush.com/aac-big-12-exp...47135.html

Quote:"Anyone with eyes can tell that the big Internet companies—I wouldn't even call them new media, they're not anymore—are going to be bigger players," AAC commissioner Mike Aresco told SI.com on Tuesday. "There's no question. TV is TV and media is media. You can watch a game on a pie plate."

Yeah but Mike, the underlying fundamental doesn't go away: how many pie plates are going to be receiving AAC game live streams from the internet??


Even if you give away the live streams to anyone with internet access for no fee, the viewership is not there to be a "Power Six".
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 01:50 PM by MplsBison.)
08-03-2016 01:49 PM
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Post: #2
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
NIU has a chance!

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08-03-2016 01:50 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
"New Media" is not a reference to new markets.
08-03-2016 02:00 PM
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Post: #4
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
NBC Sports won the original contract that ESPN matched, so they'll be interested in the next contract especially if they can secure Army home games and the Army/Navy game. The Mountain West will also be up during that time so NBC Sports could make a big splash, Aresco has his connection to CBS Sports as well to get them involved, I'm not sure how interested ESPN or FOX Sports would be in the American or Mountain West and you have a couple new players that can be involved in lower-tier rights with beIN Sports and American Sports Network.

I think the American will add to get back to 12 teams and would consider Wichita State a member if Navy stays with the conference. You also can take into account that Twitter is getting involved in the streaming of games which I think is a great tool for a conference like the AAC. I suspect that they'll get a bump from the $2 million a year pay to $5 million a year if they can keep key members like UConn, otherwise they can end up going the route of Conference USA so they have to choose their replacements wisely.
08-03-2016 02:02 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
I have my doubts. The current AAC deal is going into the 4th year of a 7 year contract. It will 3 years after the 2016-2017 season. My guess is Aresco will look to get his cash starved teams more money sooner rather than later by doing an early extension (similar to the MAC's strategy). The MAC had 3 years left on their deal when they signed their extension.

If the AAC does an extension, most of these "new media" options wont be in play. Besides, I question how significantly the entire landscape can change over 3 years. Cable has done little thus far to combat cord cutting. Now that its gone from a nuisance to a real threat---I think cable will begin rolling out more consumer options designed to curb cord cutting. I also think that content rights holders will be upping their rights fee tor content liscened to streaming networks (which means streaming will become more expensive--and a less attractive option for consumers). The landscape could end up stabilizing--or it could change radically. But I doubt it does either over the next year or so when the AAC would be trying to negotiate an extension with ESPN.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 02:04 PM by Attackcoog.)
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Post: #6
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
(08-03-2016 02:00 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  "New Media" is not a reference to new markets.
I'm aware of what it means

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08-03-2016 02:03 PM
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NBPirate Offline
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
(08-03-2016 02:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I have my doubts. The current AAC deal is going into the 4th year of a 7 year contract. It will 3 years after the 2016-2017 season. My guess is Aresco will look to get his cash starved teams more money sooner rather than later by doing an early extension (similar to the MAC's strategy). The MAC had 3 years left on their deal when they signed their extension.

If the AAC does an extension, most of these "new media" options wont be in play. Besides, I question how significantly the entire landscape can change over 3 years. Cable has done little thus far to combat cord cutting. Now that its gone from a nuisance to a real threat---I think cable will begin rolling out more consumer options designed to curb cord cutting. I also think that content rights holders will be upping their rights fee tor content liscened to streaming networks (which means streaming will become more expensive--and a less attractive option for consumers). The landscape could end up stabilizing--or it could change radically. But I doubt it does either over the next year or so when the AAC would be trying to negotiate an extension with ESPN.

He is saying this stuff as leverage. Threatening to explore other options.
08-03-2016 02:08 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
Coog,

Pay TV is going to mostly all switch over to streaming. Just don't know the timeline ... if it's 5yrs, 10yrs, 20yrs ... don't know yet.

DISH (Sling) and Sony (Playstation Vue) got in early. AT&T (DirecTV), Google (Youtube) and Apple are next and there will be others. Microsoft, Verizon, Comcast and Charter/Time Warner will be there too. And then there's Netflix and Hulu, which may (or may not) start up or spin off a live streaming operation, rather than just being on-demand.

It will all be via bundles, but perhaps "skinnier" bundles that people are used to with traditional cable. It will all come from the internet.



But at the end of the day, this is my point: those services are still just going to be a menu of "channels". Those channels will be the same thing as today: programmed line-ups of shows, some live, some scripted. It'll still be ESPN/2, FOX/FS1, etc.

So "new media" is not really going to be all that new, in a sense. At least to conferences looking to sell their content to a distribution partner.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 02:12 PM by MplsBison.)
08-03-2016 02:11 PM
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Post: #9
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
It's still a good thing, basically it's going to force the cable companies to get rid of equipment and you'll see Internet/Streaming bundles become the new normal. The first company to go to a true "a-la carte" service, like pay $30/month and choose 20 channels type deal will be the new normal, that won't happen for another 10 years I think.
08-03-2016 02:14 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #10
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
Not going to happen, period. Too many of the channels are linked together.

For example, Disney isn't going to want for bundle customers to have the ability to pick ESPN2, but not ESPN and Disney Ch. Etc.
08-03-2016 02:19 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
(08-03-2016 02:08 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  
(08-03-2016 02:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I have my doubts. The current AAC deal is going into the 4th year of a 7 year contract. It will 3 years after the 2016-2017 season. My guess is Aresco will look to get his cash starved teams more money sooner rather than later by doing an early extension (similar to the MAC's strategy). The MAC had 3 years left on their deal when they signed their extension.

If the AAC does an extension, most of these "new media" options wont be in play. Besides, I question how significantly the entire landscape can change over 3 years. Cable has done little thus far to combat cord cutting. Now that its gone from a nuisance to a real threat---I think cable will begin rolling out more consumer options designed to curb cord cutting. I also think that content rights holders will be upping their rights fee tor content liscened to streaming networks (which means streaming will become more expensive--and a less attractive option for consumers). The landscape could end up stabilizing--or it could change radically. But I doubt it does either over the next year or so when the AAC would be trying to negotiate an extension with ESPN.

He is saying this stuff as leverage. Threatening to explore other options.

Yeah but there's always options to get a better tv deal during the "look in" period right. Couldn't resist.
Cheers!
08-03-2016 02:23 PM
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Lord Stanley Offline
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Post: #12
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
How do you watch a game on a pie plate?
08-03-2016 02:56 PM
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mj4life Offline
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Post: #13
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
(08-03-2016 02:11 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Coog,

Pay TV is going to mostly all switch over to streaming. Just don't know the timeline ... if it's 5yrs, 10yrs, 20yrs ... don't know yet.

DISH (Sling) and Sony (Playstation Vue) got in early. AT&T (DirecTV), Google (Youtube) and Apple are next and there will be others. Microsoft, Verizon, Comcast and Charter/Time Warner will be there too. And then there's Netflix and Hulu, which may (or may not) start up or spin off a live streaming operation, rather than just being on-demand.

It will all be via bundles, but perhaps "skinnier" bundles that people are used to with traditional cable. It will all come from the internet.



But at the end of the day, this is my point: those services are still just going to be a menu of "channels". Those channels will be the same thing as today: programmed line-ups of shows, some live, some scripted. It'll still be ESPN/2, FOX/FS1, etc.

So "new media" is not really going to be all that new, in a sense. At least to conferences looking to sell their content to a distribution partner.

Hulu has plans for a steaming service & Amazon will at some point. I do think this will give consumers more options but as long as cable companies are the largest ISP providers they can limit how much people switch with data caps. Even so ESPN & Fox are still postioned to take advantage of these platforms.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 03:12 PM by mj4life.)
08-03-2016 03:11 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #14
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
Whoops, I missed Amazon! Thanks. They'll be there too.


Cable and phone companies are the biggest ISP's, true. And ISP's will have to be allowed to make money, true. But if they try to gouge people too much, then the FCC has shown it's willing to step in and scuttle the game.

All it will take is to allow municipal broadband and *poof*, no more money in commercial ISP service. No more so than providing water to homes, anyway.
08-03-2016 03:15 PM
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
(08-03-2016 03:15 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Whoops, I missed Amazon! Thanks. They'll be there too.


Cable and phone companies are the biggest ISP's, true. And ISP's will have to be allowed to make money, true. But if they try to gouge people too much, then the FCC has shown it's willing to step in and scuttle the game.

All it will take is to allow municipal broadband and *poof*, no more money in commercial ISP service. No more so than providing water to homes, anyway.

I should have said discourage consumers from moving. Where I live AT&T is offering unlimited streaming with some of their direct TV packages for example
08-03-2016 03:22 PM
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Post: #16
RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
(08-03-2016 02:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Besides, I question how significantly the entire landscape can change over 3 years.
This is a key point. The "cable cutters" slice of the media market is still in the part of a new market niche where it's growth is rapid in terms of percentage growth rates, but constrained in terms of total market share by its relatively small starting market share that it started from.

The impact a decade from now will likely be substantial, but the impact three years from now is not likely to be all that impressive.

(08-03-2016 02:56 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  How do you watch a game on a pie plate?
Think that'd have to be a Samsung pie plate. They are big on the "Internet of Things".
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 03:33 PM by BruceMcF.)
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
Sure, in cases where the same parent company owns both of the distribution and transportation of the stream.

For example, AT&T mobile customers who also subscribe to a DirecTV streaming bundle of channels, may see that no mobile data is used to stream the DirecTV to mobile devices.


But that doesn't work as well when it's Playstation Vue as the distributor and Charter as the transporter (ISP).



Bruce, highly doubtful. In order for that to be true, then it would simply be the case that a significant number of people switched entirely to on-demand TV and/or OTA. Not gonna happen. Especially with the requisite huge increase in cost for on-demand service.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 03:35 PM by MplsBison.)
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
(08-03-2016 03:32 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-03-2016 02:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Besides, I question how significantly the entire landscape can change over 3 years.
This is a key point. The "cable cutters" slice of the media market is still in the part of a new market niche where it's growth is rapid in terms of percentage growth rates, but constrained in terms of total market share by its relatively small starting market share that it started from.

The impact a decade from now will likely be substantial, but the impact three years from now is not likely to be all that impressive.

(08-03-2016 02:56 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  How do you watch a game on a pie plate?
Think that'd have to be a Samsung pie plate. They are big on the "Internet of Things".
Plus it's not like the AAC is going to have a product that commands a huge rights increase. The other problem is your league's exposure could take a nosedive until that platform matures.
08-03-2016 03:38 PM
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
(08-03-2016 03:33 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Bruce, highly doubtful. In order for that to be true, ....
Guessing here about what "that" is ... probably impact on decade time scale rather than three years, though it could also be that Samsung is the most likely source of a pie plate on which you could watch a game ...

Quote: then it would simply be the case that a significant number of people switched entirely to on-demand TV and/or OTA. Not gonna happen. Especially with the requisite huge increase in cost for on-demand service.

As you know, I have never bought your premise of the "requisite huge increase in cost for on-demand service", since it requires us to assume that the media companies involved are totally clueless regarding the elasticity of demand for their product and are willing to leave a very large amount of money on the table, which is availavle from not imposing a huge increase in cost for on-demand service.
08-03-2016 03:50 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: "New Media" pivotal to AAC
You have it backwards. They leave money on the table by not increasing the price for on-demand.
08-03-2016 05:08 PM
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