(07-14-2016 03:26 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Haha, I just noticed you actually said that we'd be 50/50 "at best" in the title game, so as to imply there exists zero instances where the runaway favorite to win the conference would be favored in the title game. For that to make sense with Vegas' odds, we'd have to be a >100% favorite to win the West.

Words mean things. Suggestion: Try choosing yours more carefully.

He lost me at his 50/50 math numbers too.

(07-14-2016 07:29 AM)rosewater Wrote:  American Athletic championship

School Odds

Houston 1/1
South Florida 7/2
Cincinnati 11/2
Temple 15/2
Memphis 11/1
Navy 11/1
UConn 20/1
East Carolina 33/1
Tulsa 33/1
SMU 75/1
Central Florida 100/1
Tulane 200/1
Pretty interesting stuff. IMO the best play would be with UCF. Veteran qb surrounded by lots of talent. 50/50 odds are too high for Houston. Looks like Tulsa and ECU have there work cut out for them. The Memphis and Navy reflect teams that lost a qb. I think this makes a lot of sense.

Link to OP:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football...ences-2016

(07-14-2016 09:21 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Nice.... $100 on ucf gets you $10,000.

you mean loses $100.

(07-14-2016 03:11 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 03:02 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 01:16 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 01:03 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 11:56 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Yep. Unlike rosewater, you seem to understand simple math.

Kronke, You do not play a balanced schedule. It is not like the winner of the west is the team that beats all the western teams. Some have to play the more difficult teams in the east while others get to skate. I think there is at least a 30 percent Houston does not win the west and a 50 percent chance you do not win the championship game hence a 35 percent chance to win the championship. So stick it.

I'm open to examining that more closely, as it further proves my point.

We play @Cincy, vs. UConn, vs. UCF.
Navy has vs. UConn, @ECU, @USF.
Memphis has vs. Temple, vs. USF, @Cincy

I think you'd agree that Memphis has by far the toughest draw, so let's eliminate them. Next is Navy. Our UConn games cancel out. Which is more difficult, @Cincy & vs. UCF or @ECU & @USF? Not to mention, we've already come out as a TD favorite against Navy.

Finally, we're a top 10 team, and you are giving us no more than a 50% shot to win the title game in the event that we make it. That doesn't add up. Everything else equal (injuries, etc.), we would obviously be favored over anyone we would meet in the title game.

Some more realistic numbers. 75-80% to win the West. 55-60% to win the title = ~45% to win the AAC. Factor in the vig, 1/1 seems right on the money.

I do not agree with any of your gobeldy goop. You cannot predict these games one at a time before the season starts. If you lose any game inside your division and lose out side your division than it is highly unlikely that you are in the championship game for instance a loss at Memphis and a loss to Cincinnati. I gave Houston a 70 percent chance of winning their division which is pretty fair. A match-up with the best of the field in the East is 50/50 at best. Keep in mind that you have not played a game this year and did not exactly dominate your schedule from last year. You are not objective at all.

You essentially want to dig deep into Houston's worst case scenarios, and just assume the best for our competition. That's not the way probability works.

I think I've had a math-related argument with you before, and it went down this same road. I am convinced your background has to be in liberal arts (no shame in that, but nothing else makes sense), and therefore this is just foreign to you, because I went above and beyond to be reasonable. The fact that you are sticking by the 50/50 call for the title game is ridiculous.

I'll leave it at this, Vegas knows better than you do.

You are calling 2 conference losses, "houstons worst case scenario" I give Houston a 70 percent chance of winning their division, this is unreasonable. 50/50 versus the entire eastern field before a single game is played is not unreasonable. Last season Cincinnati was the overwhelming favorite, and they did not even make it to the championship game. Vegas does know better than me unless they are wrong. You do realize, Vegas sets point spreads based on the amount of action that they can get. These spreads are only indicative of the perception of the team by betting fans. To conclude, it is a poor bet to wager 1 to 1 on Houston.

Odds of AAC losing a couple teams soon....
1/1

(07-14-2016 09:24 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Odds of AAC losing a couple teams soon....
1/1

Closing the sale of my business on the 20th so at least one of us will be happy

Houston will dominate the american for many years to come starting sept. 3rd
You guys are playing catch up right now.
And y'all know it...

(07-14-2016 09:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 09:24 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Odds of AAC losing a couple teams soon....
1/1

Closing the sale of my business on the 20th so at least one of us will be happy

Just curious, without disclosing anything personal; what type of business do/did you own?

(07-14-2016 10:06 PM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 09:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 09:24 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Odds of AAC losing a couple teams soon....
1/1

Closing the sale of my business on the 20th so at least one of us will be happy

Just curious, without disclosing anything personal; what type of business do/did you own?

He bought the Dairy Whip from Kenny.

(07-14-2016 09:38 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Houston will dominate the american for many years to come starting sept. 3rd
You guys are playing catch up right now.
And y'all know it...

If the UH defense is as good as it was last season, it will mean they're going to win a ton of games. If that happens... Your coach is skipping town guaranteed.

(07-15-2016 10:25 AM)invisiblehand Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 09:38 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Houston will dominate the american for many years to come starting sept. 3rd
You guys are playing catch up right now.
And y'all know it...

If the UH defense is as good as it was last season, it will mean they're going to win a ton of games. If that happens... Your coach is skipping town guaranteed.

Oh, guaranteed huh?

(07-15-2016 10:36 AM)Kronke Wrote:  

(07-15-2016 10:25 AM)invisiblehand Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 09:38 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Houston will dominate the american for many years to come starting sept. 3rd
You guys are playing catch up right now.
And y'all know it...

If the UH defense is as good as it was last season, it will mean they're going to win a ton of games. If that happens... Your coach is skipping town guaranteed.

Oh, guaranteed huh?

Much like many predicting and wishing coach Herman leaving last season too, guaranteed - LOL

(07-15-2016 10:25 AM)invisiblehand Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 09:38 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Houston will dominate the american for many years to come starting sept. 3rd
You guys are playing catch up right now.
And y'all know it...

If the UH defense is as good as it was last season, it will mean they're going to win a ton of games. If that happens... Your coach is skipping town guaranteed.

Isn't that what they said last year?

(07-15-2016 10:25 AM)invisiblehand Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 09:38 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Houston will dominate the american for many years to come starting sept. 3rd
You guys are playing catch up right now.
And y'all know it...

If the UH defense is as good as it was last season, it will mean they're going to win a ton of games. If that happens... Your coach is skipping town guaranteed.