http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/...e-election

I like this tool that NPR came up with the other day. Basically it starts with 2012 numbers (voter turnout and how they voted). But you can mess with the numbers for white males, white females, the black vote and the hispanic vote to see how it affects the 21 battleground states (NPR is assuming correctly that some states are going to vote blue or red regardless of turnout - it puts a few states on the list of battleground states that I don't think are in question but whatever).

Basically, Trump has a chance if he gets 10 pct more white male vote than 2012 and a higher turnout there than 2012 as well. But if Clinton gets 6-7 percent of the white female to vote for her more than 2012, the election swings back her way even if Trump gets that 10 pct push. I think we can all pretty much assume the black vote is less this year than 2012, and the Hispanic vote is higher.

(07-03-2016 11:56 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/...e-election

I like this tool that NPR came up with the other day. Basically it starts with 2012 numbers (voter turnout and how they voted). But you can mess with the numbers for white males, white females, the black vote and the hispanic vote to see how it affects the 21 battleground states (NPR is assuming correctly that some states are going to vote blue or red regardless of turnout - it puts a few states on the list of battleground states that I don't think are in question but whatever).

Basically, Trump has a chance if he gets 10 pct more white male vote than 2012 and a higher turnout there than 2012 as well. But if Clinton gets 6-7 percent of the white female to vote for her more than 2012, the election swings back her way even if Trump gets that 10 pct push. I think we can all pretty much assume the black vote is less this year than 2012, and the Hispanic vote is higher.

I have to go against the assumption that the Hispanic vote will be higher. It won't, the Hispanics that loathe Trump vote D anyway and those additional voters the left targets aren't even eligible to vote anyway. They're just all bark and no bite. The Hispanic vote will be a non-factor, like always.

The Hispanic vote will be higher, but just slightly so in Texas.

The Hispanic vote, even with accounting for lower participation rates, is becoming so large in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado as to become more of a problem for the Republicans. Hispanic voters vote in far higher percentages in Florida (where the internal demographic skews increasingly towards a high participation Hispanic group - Puerto Ricans). In Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado the Hispanic vote tends to be increasing, even with lower participation rates.

There seems to be a divergence of Hispanic voting patterns by state. In Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, etc., voting rates remain low. But in other states, the Hispanic vote is becoming more important.

(07-03-2016 12:32 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 11:56 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/...e-election

I like this tool that NPR came up with the other day. Basically it starts with 2012 numbers (voter turnout and how they voted). But you can mess with the numbers for white males, white females, the black vote and the hispanic vote to see how it affects the 21 battleground states (NPR is assuming correctly that some states are going to vote blue or red regardless of turnout - it puts a few states on the list of battleground states that I don't think are in question but whatever).

Basically, Trump has a chance if he gets 10 pct more white male vote than 2012 and a higher turnout there than 2012 as well. But if Clinton gets 6-7 percent of the white female to vote for her more than 2012, the election swings back her way even if Trump gets that 10 pct push. I think we can all pretty much assume the black vote is less this year than 2012, and the Hispanic vote is higher.

I have to go against the assumption that the Hispanic vote will be higher. It won't, the Hispanics that loathe Trump vote D anyway and those additional voters the left targets aren't even eligible to vote anyway. They're just all bark and no bite. The Hispanic vote will be a non-factor, like always.

Trump won't win Cali lol. He needs Florida though. Cubans are different that Mexican as hispanics go. Also Mexican hispanics that have been Americans for multiple generations are closer to an even split on being Dem or GOP. Lots of Hispanics want illegal immigration under control.
Once they are here, "they got theirs", and more illegals can impact their job prospects and safety in their hoods. (also insert C. American for Mexican is some instances)

GOP is insane to do a wholesale amnesty. There could be over 20 Million illegals here. Nobody knows.

(07-03-2016 01:12 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 12:32 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 11:56 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/...e-election

I like this tool that NPR came up with the other day. Basically it starts with 2012 numbers (voter turnout and how they voted). But you can mess with the numbers for white males, white females, the black vote and the hispanic vote to see how it affects the 21 battleground states (NPR is assuming correctly that some states are going to vote blue or red regardless of turnout - it puts a few states on the list of battleground states that I don't think are in question but whatever).

Basically, Trump has a chance if he gets 10 pct more white male vote than 2012 and a higher turnout there than 2012 as well. But if Clinton gets 6-7 percent of the white female to vote for her more than 2012, the election swings back her way even if Trump gets that 10 pct push. I think we can all pretty much assume the black vote is less this year than 2012, and the Hispanic vote is higher.

I have to go against the assumption that the Hispanic vote will be higher. It won't, the Hispanics that loathe Trump vote D anyway and those additional voters the left targets aren't even eligible to vote anyway. They're just all bark and no bite. The Hispanic vote will be a non-factor, like always.

Trump won't win Cali lol. He needs Florida though. Cubans are different that Mexican as hispanics go. Also Mexican hispanics that have been Americans for multiple generations are closer to an even split on being Dem or GOP. Lots of Hispanics want illegal immigration under control.
Once they are here, "they got theirs", and more illegals can impact their job prospects and safety in their hoods. (also insert C. American for Mexican is some instances)

GOP is insane to do a wholesale amnesty. There could be over 20 Million illegals here. Nobody knows.

The first part of the bolded is true, the second part is not. Hispanics that immigrated LEGALLY want it under control and don't have the mentality of "they got theirs", but the mentality of "they EARNED theirs." We don't want moochers any more than white or black hard working citizens.

I know the Mexican American culture as well as I can. Here in the US there are two types: LEGAL descendants and your ILLEGAL descendants, both types are US citizens and both have completely different mentalities and political affiliations. It doesn't take a political strategist to figure out which is which. I am a LEGAL descendant and damn proud of it. I know people who are ILLEGAL descendants...biggest f'n freeloaders I can think off and all vote D. THese are the schmucks egging and rioting at Trump events. You won't find a single LEGAL descendant doing any of that crap.

Edit: You may find a few legal descendants doing that crap, but I'd assume they likely just have too many illegal descendants for friends.

(07-03-2016 02:00 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 01:12 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 12:32 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 11:56 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/...e-election

I like this tool that NPR came up with the other day. Basically it starts with 2012 numbers (voter turnout and how they voted). But you can mess with the numbers for white males, white females, the black vote and the hispanic vote to see how it affects the 21 battleground states (NPR is assuming correctly that some states are going to vote blue or red regardless of turnout - it puts a few states on the list of battleground states that I don't think are in question but whatever).

Basically, Trump has a chance if he gets 10 pct more white male vote than 2012 and a higher turnout there than 2012 as well. But if Clinton gets 6-7 percent of the white female to vote for her more than 2012, the election swings back her way even if Trump gets that 10 pct push. I think we can all pretty much assume the black vote is less this year than 2012, and the Hispanic vote is higher.

I have to go against the assumption that the Hispanic vote will be higher. It won't, the Hispanics that loathe Trump vote D anyway and those additional voters the left targets aren't even eligible to vote anyway. They're just all bark and no bite. The Hispanic vote will be a non-factor, like always.

Trump won't win Cali lol. He needs Florida though. Cubans are different that Mexican as hispanics go. Also Mexican hispanics that have been Americans for multiple generations are closer to an even split on being Dem or GOP. Lots of Hispanics want illegal immigration under control.
Once they are here, "they got theirs", and more illegals can impact their job prospects and safety in their hoods. (also insert C. American for Mexican is some instances)

GOP is insane to do a wholesale amnesty. There could be over 20 Million illegals here. Nobody knows.

The first part of the bolded is true, the second part is not. Hispanics that immigrated LEGALLY want it under control and don't have the mentality of "they got theirs", but the mentality of "they EARNED theirs." We don't want moochers any more than white or black hard working citizens.

I know the Mexican American culture as well as I can. Here in the US there are two types: LEGAL descendants and your ILLEGAL descendants, both types are US citizens and both have completely different mentalities and political affiliations. It doesn't take a political strategist to figure out which is which. I am a LEGAL descendant and damn proud of it. I know people who are ILLEGAL descendants...biggest f'n freeloaders I can think off and all vote D. THese are the schmucks egging and rioting at Trump events. You won't find a single LEGAL descendant doing any of that crap.

+1


Sent from #ClutchCity using Tapatalk

(07-03-2016 02:00 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 01:12 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 12:32 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 11:56 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/...e-election

I like this tool that NPR came up with the other day. Basically it starts with 2012 numbers (voter turnout and how they voted). But you can mess with the numbers for white males, white females, the black vote and the hispanic vote to see how it affects the 21 battleground states (NPR is assuming correctly that some states are going to vote blue or red regardless of turnout - it puts a few states on the list of battleground states that I don't think are in question but whatever).

Basically, Trump has a chance if he gets 10 pct more white male vote than 2012 and a higher turnout there than 2012 as well. But if Clinton gets 6-7 percent of the white female to vote for her more than 2012, the election swings back her way even if Trump gets that 10 pct push. I think we can all pretty much assume the black vote is less this year than 2012, and the Hispanic vote is higher.

I have to go against the assumption that the Hispanic vote will be higher. It won't, the Hispanics that loathe Trump vote D anyway and those additional voters the left targets aren't even eligible to vote anyway. They're just all bark and no bite. The Hispanic vote will be a non-factor, like always.

Trump won't win Cali lol. He needs Florida though. Cubans are different that Mexican as hispanics go. Also Mexican hispanics that have been Americans for multiple generations are closer to an even split on being Dem or GOP. Lots of Hispanics want illegal immigration under control.
Once they are here, "they got theirs", and more illegals can impact their job prospects and safety in their hoods. (also insert C. American for Mexican is some instances)

GOP is insane to do a wholesale amnesty. There could be over 20 Million illegals here. Nobody knows.

The first part of the bolded is true, the second part is not. Hispanics that immigrated LEGALLY want it under control and don't have the mentality of "they got theirs", but the mentality of "they EARNED theirs." We don't want moochers any more than white or black hard working citizens.

I know the Mexican American culture as well as I can. Here in the US there are two types: LEGAL descendants and your ILLEGAL descendants, both types are US citizens and both have completely different mentalities and political affiliations. It doesn't take a political strategist to figure out which is which. I am a LEGAL descendant and damn proud of it. I know people who are ILLEGAL descendants...biggest f'n freeloaders I can think off and all vote D. THese are the schmucks egging and rioting at Trump events. You won't find a single LEGAL descendant doing any of that crap.

Edit: You may find a few legal descendants doing that crap, but I'd assume they likely just have too many illegal descendants for friends.

(07-03-2016 02:00 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 01:12 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 12:32 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 11:56 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/...e-election

I like this tool that NPR came up with the other day. Basically it starts with 2012 numbers (voter turnout and how they voted). But you can mess with the numbers for white males, white females, the black vote and the hispanic vote to see how it affects the 21 battleground states (NPR is assuming correctly that some states are going to vote blue or red regardless of turnout - it puts a few states on the list of battleground states that I don't think are in question but whatever).

Basically, Trump has a chance if he gets 10 pct more white male vote than 2012 and a higher turnout there than 2012 as well. But if Clinton gets 6-7 percent of the white female to vote for her more than 2012, the election swings back her way even if Trump gets that 10 pct push. I think we can all pretty much assume the black vote is less this year than 2012, and the Hispanic vote is higher.

I have to go against the assumption that the Hispanic vote will be higher. It won't, the Hispanics that loathe Trump vote D anyway and those additional voters the left targets aren't even eligible to vote anyway. They're just all bark and no bite. The Hispanic vote will be a non-factor, like always.

Trump won't win Cali lol. He needs Florida though. Cubans are different that Mexican as hispanics go. Also Mexican hispanics that have been Americans for multiple generations are closer to an even split on being Dem or GOP. Lots of Hispanics want illegal immigration under control.
Once they are here, "they got theirs", and more illegals can impact their job prospects and safety in their hoods. (also insert C. American for Mexican is some instances)

GOP is insane to do a wholesale amnesty. There could be over 20 Million illegals here. Nobody knows.

The first part of the bolded is true, the second part is not. Hispanics that immigrated LEGALLY want it under control and don't have the mentality of "they got theirs", but the mentality of "they EARNED theirs." We don't want moochers any more than white or black hard working citizens.

I know the Mexican American culture as well as I can. Here in the US there are two types: LEGAL descendants and your ILLEGAL descendants, both types are US citizens and both have completely different mentalities and political affiliations. It doesn't take a political strategist to figure out which is which. I am a LEGAL descendant and damn proud of it. I know people who are ILLEGAL descendants...biggest f'n freeloaders I can think off and all vote D. THese are the schmucks egging and rioting at Trump events. You won't find a single LEGAL descendant doing any of that crap.

Edit: You may find a few legal descendants doing that crap, but I'd assume they likely just have too many illegal descendants for friends.

How many from the legal side hate Trump? My cousin is married to a guy that still identifies fairly strongly as "Mexican". Honestly, I couldnt tell you if he was legal or not before they got married. He is always posting some dumbarse Trump meme on facebook.

(07-03-2016 02:29 PM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 02:00 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 01:12 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 12:32 PM)Pyrizzo Wrote:  

(07-03-2016 11:56 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/...e-election

I like this tool that NPR came up with the other day. Basically it starts with 2012 numbers (voter turnout and how they voted). But you can mess with the numbers for white males, white females, the black vote and the hispanic vote to see how it affects the 21 battleground states (NPR is assuming correctly that some states are going to vote blue or red regardless of turnout - it puts a few states on the list of battleground states that I don't think are in question but whatever).

Basically, Trump has a chance if he gets 10 pct more white male vote than 2012 and a higher turnout there than 2012 as well. But if Clinton gets 6-7 percent of the white female to vote for her more than 2012, the election swings back her way even if Trump gets that 10 pct push. I think we can all pretty much assume the black vote is less this year than 2012, and the Hispanic vote is higher.

I have to go against the assumption that the Hispanic vote will be higher. It won't, the Hispanics that loathe Trump vote D anyway and those additional voters the left targets aren't even eligible to vote anyway. They're just all bark and no bite. The Hispanic vote will be a non-factor, like always.

Trump won't win Cali lol. He needs Florida though. Cubans are different that Mexican as hispanics go. Also Mexican hispanics that have been Americans for multiple generations are closer to an even split on being Dem or GOP. Lots of Hispanics want illegal immigration under control.
Once they are here, "they got theirs", and more illegals can impact their job prospects and safety in their hoods. (also insert C. American for Mexican is some instances)

GOP is insane to do a wholesale amnesty. There could be over 20 Million illegals here. Nobody knows.

The first part of the bolded is true, the second part is not. Hispanics that immigrated LEGALLY want it under control and don't have the mentality of "they got theirs", but the mentality of "they EARNED theirs." We don't want moochers any more than white or black hard working citizens.

I know the Mexican American culture as well as I can. Here in the US there are two types: LEGAL descendants and your ILLEGAL descendants, both types are US citizens and both have completely different mentalities and political affiliations. It doesn't take a political strategist to figure out which is which. I am a LEGAL descendant and damn proud of it. I know people who are ILLEGAL descendants...biggest f'n freeloaders I can think off and all vote D. THese are the schmucks egging and rioting at Trump events. You won't find a single LEGAL descendant doing any of that crap.

Edit: You may find a few legal descendants doing that crap, but I'd assume they likely just have too many illegal descendants for friends.

How many from the legal side hate Trump? My cousin is married to a guy that still identifies fairly strongly as "Mexican". Honestly, I couldnt tell you if he was legal or not before they got married. He is always posting some dumbarse Trump meme on facebook.

Identifying someone as a legal or illegal descendant is troublesome, unless you know the individual well. However, a legal descendant will waste no time correcting someone who assumes otherwise.

A very good friend of mine once asked me what nationality I was when we first met. I'll just say he won't ever make that mistake again. lol.