(06-17-2016 04:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-17-2016 04:00 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-17-2016 02:35 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-17-2016 02:14 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  I'm no expert on polling but don't they make adjustments based on the makeup of the respondents?

suppose the shoe were on the other foot ...
oversampling republicans by 10% ...
and nobody said a word ...

MAKE OF IT WHAT YOU WILL

I don't really follow your response. I was asking a question about polling. Don't they factor in differences between the make up of their sample and the make up of voters as a whole? If there is an oversampling of one or the other don't they adjust the percentages? If they don't then an oversampling would result in an inaccurate outcome. If they do then an oversampling shouldn't matter.

why not randomly sample the electorate as currently constituted ...

SPARE ME THE DETAILS

Quote:But pollsters, at least if they are following the industry’s standard guidelines, do not choose how many Democrats, Republicans or independent voters to put into their samples — any more than they choose the number of voters for Mr. Obama or Mitt Romney. Instead, this is determined by the responses of the voters that they reach after calling random numbers from telephone directories or registered voter lists.

Pollsters will re-weight their numbers if the demographics of their sample diverge from Census Bureau data. For instance, it is typically more challenging to get younger voters on the phone, so most pollsters weight their samples by age to remedy this problem.

But party identification is not a hard-and-fast demographic characteristic like race, age or gender. Instead, it can change in reaction to news and political events from the party conventions to the Sept. 11 attacks. Since changes in public opinion are precisely what polls are trying to measure, it would defeat the purpose of conducting a survey if pollsters insisted that they knew what it was ahead of time.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/poll...isan-bias/

(06-17-2016 04:49 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Pollsters will re-weight their numbers if the demographics of their sample diverge from Census Bureau data.

But party identification is not a hard-and-fast demographic characteristic like race, age or gender. Instead ... it would defeat the purpose of conducting a survey if pollsters insisted that they knew what it was ahead of time.

oversampling democrats @ 49% and undersampling independents @ 8% predisposes a result unfavorable to mr. Trump ...

CONFIRMATION BIAS

(06-17-2016 07:14 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-17-2016 04:49 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Pollsters will re-weight their numbers if the demographics of their sample diverge from Census Bureau data.

But party identification is not a hard-and-fast demographic characteristic like race, age or gender. Instead ... it would defeat the purpose of conducting a survey if pollsters insisted that they knew what it was ahead of time.

oversampling democrats @ 49% and undersampling independents @ 8% predisposes a result unfavorable to mr. Trump ...

CONFIRMATION BIAS

Whatever you want to believe.

way to early to trust any results

(06-18-2016 10:57 AM)dcCid Wrote:  way to early to trust any results

You are right. A lot can happen between now and November. But it is also important to note that lots of votes get locked in during the dawg days of summer. Some strategists content that races are decided then, not in the fall. Trump needs to make nice with the GOP campaign machine or he is going to dig himself such a deep hole he will not be able to get out of it. He needs the donors, data, and ground game they can provide and he seems to not realize the importance of this. He is his own worst enemy.

(06-18-2016 03:47 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  He needs the donors, data, and ground game they can provide

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-stat...ies-224344

In the most pivotal counties in seven critical swing states, Donald Trump has a decided edge
-- politico

they weren't with him way back when ...
tell me once ...
tell me twice ...
power to the people ...

HEARD IT ALL BEFORE

(06-18-2016 04:23 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-18-2016 03:47 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  He needs the donors, data, and ground game they can provide

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-stat...ies-224344

In the most pivotal counties in seven critical swing states, Donald Trump has a decided edge
-- politico

they weren't with him way back when ...
tell me once ...
tell me twice ...
power to the people ...

HEARD IT ALL BEFORE

So are you saying he doesn't need the GOP infrastructure? If so that sounds like a recipe for defeat.

The bellwether county in NC, Watauga is an interesting case. It is the home of my school, Appalachian State University and the GOP controlled county BOE has done everything they can to make it difficult for students to vote. In 2012 they removed the polling place on campus and students had to vote far away out of town to a place with little parking, limited bus service and no way to safely walk there. They also tried to challenge many students right to vote in the county. Boone votes D and the countryside votes R. It is also important to note that the poll was conducted June 3-5 when school wasn't in session. It might not be accurate given that very few students were around to pick up the phone. (If that factor wasn't taken into consideration)