Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
All following tweets are from BTM - Long conversation over the weekend.

--------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM:4 options for Big 12 coming 8 years.
Most likely to least.

1) Reform
2) Controlled Implosion
3) Non Controlled implosion
4) Status Quo

----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: Expansion with CCG still most likely. B12N won't be built overnight. FOX will play ball on giving up 3rd tier TV rights w B12 schls

----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: ESPN/Texas final decision makers..OU contacts say momentum is with EXP & CCG with 8 B12 schools.

----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: Data will be presented this week...data will not surprise many B12 Presidents. Cincy-UCONN-BYU-UCF data will be good to decent.

----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: Most internal traction among B12 Presidents (not majority yet..but most traction among combo's) UCONN/Cincy. This has not changed.

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: Memphis is not being discussed as candidate. Houston has no traction.

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: Colorado State is BYU's shadow. CSU candidacy is only breathing if B12 goes to 14 in future and if BYU can't make it work with B12.

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: No one expects B12 will grow by 4 in this expansion at this time. Possible growth to 14 in 3-4 years if B12N successful at 12..

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM:7 of 10 B12 schools recieve so few $ on TV part of their 3rd Tier Contracts...FOX will retain licensing part of many of those contracts

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: FOX won't stop the creation of B12N...It's up to ESPN to negotiate with FOX on many B12 3rd Tier Contracts.

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: FOX is willing partner...FOX does want something in return. FOX wants some changes to their portion of B12 Tier 1 contract.

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: We don't have info on changes...it's not money or length of contract, but it has to do with flexibility. We don't know what that means.

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: OU Contacts scoff at notion Baylor would receive death penalty, nor would they ever be dismissed from B12.

-----------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: OU Contacts - BU, more than ever, will be pro expansion in light of what has happened. They have no other potential landing in 8 years

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: BU damage...it has only made the candidacies of UCONN/UC even more chalk.

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: UCF candidacy to B12 upcoming years will be dependent on relationship of FSU/Miami with ESPN.

If ESPN makes FSU "whole" with ACCN.....

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
.....BTM: Then UCF candidacy to further B12 Expansion becomes chalk.

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: If Texas pulls back from Reform (EXP/CCG) then next step will be Texas & OU working with TV partners on controlled B12 implosion.

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: No one believes OU & Texas will willfully wreck their relationship by keeping status quo in place for another 8 years.

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: Controlled Implosion will assure B12 schools who do not have a seat with other P5 conferences a seat at P5 table with restructured B12.

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: However, New and ongoing TV Media contracts with "New B12" would fall behind other P5 confs...highly probable.

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: OU contacts believe B12 Reform will happen...numbers will grow by 2 for now...UC/UCONN will finally get their votes by end of Summer.

------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
BTM: Next Spring & Summer CFB news will be dominated by how Conferences and NCAA will be dealing with Concussion Lawsuits.

-------------------------
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
That is what BTM told us this weekend.
Now we shall see what happens when B12 Presidents meet.

I know some are skeptical of this guy and I completely understand why.

With that said, I found some of these comments interesting as far as how they might overlap with some of things we've talking about recently.

The questions are begged...

Does everyone in the Big 12 have a seat at the Power table and as such would aid the dissolution of the league?

Or, does everyone need to have a seat or could the powers of the league get out and leave many of the schools to a relegated, but protected as far as status goes, Big 12?

We've discussed both ideas before. What do you all think?

Does everyone in the Big 12 have a seat at the Power table and as such would aid the dissolution of the league?

No. Clearly not everyone has a seat.

Or, does everyone need to have a seat or could the powers of the league get out and leave many of the schools to a relegated, but protected as far as status goes, Big 12?

Not everyone needs to have a seat. Protected status might be important. A "controlled implosion" is interesting. For example (not making predictions, not assuming anything)

Big 12 takes UConn/Cincy. CCG+Network do well. (12 teams)
It goes well, allowing BYU and UCF to move on in. (14 teams)
But at end of contract OK and OK State to SEC (12 teams)
Replace with Colorado State/Houston (14 teams)
Kansas and Iowa State to Big 10 (12 teams)
Replace with Memphis/Boise (14 teams)
Texas/Tech/TCU/Kansas State to PAC (10 teams)
Replace with New Mexico/UNLV (12 teams)

again, not predictions just an example of how a planned implosion could work. Resulting conference:
West: Boise, Baylor, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV
East: West VA, Memphis, Cincy, UConn, UCF, Houston

Going to 14 or 16 with more AAC or the Cali MWC would limit the number of cross divisional games played and thus the number of cross country trips. Even with cross-country trips, the conference has Orlando, Tampa, Memphis, Cincy, Hartford, Houston, Boise, Salt Lake, Denver, Albuquerque, and Las Vegas. The Cal schools would add San Diego possibly. Yes, it becomes a best of the rest conference that has been proposed on here many times.

I am not of the belief that Greg Flugaur has any real info, but I'll admit, first time I read him a year or two ago, I was about ready to believe. If he is a troll (which I still think he is), he is a lot more intelligent about it than most the others.

As for questions above, I do not think the powers-that-be could get out of the Big 12 right now without having every member agree to vote to end the Big 12. You might be able to have just 8 teams do that, but if the Big 12 is like the Big East when it imploded, then a member who is leaving has lost the right to vote and even if they haven't officially announced, the remaining schools could probably sue on the basis those votes weren't legitimate. Again that is an if and if it's not a rule, you could probably get away with just having 8 members vote to dissolve.

With that said, I don't think there is a chance on this planet, you'd find a home for 8 members as I don't think the other 4 conference want more than a few. I think the Big Ten/SEC would only possibly consider expansion if it involved Texas and/or Oklahoma (maybe Kansas). I don't think the PAC-12 would likely to be willing to expand then without Texas/Oklahoma involved (and maybe not even with Oklahoma, remember they rejected the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State combo).

All that said, the only possible way I could see it, would require the PAC to move and basically it would have to go something like this. Please note, I think that almost everyone of these steps is highly unlikely, but it would be the only path I could see.
1. Big 12 meetings go very badly. Feelers start going out everywhere and after some new number crunching, other conferences believe expansion is profitable. 8 of the Big 12 teams are completely certain they would be safe and completely sure they'd rather be elsewhere. Given the amount of conferences involved here, word does leak out and further there are inform discussions about how these will go.
2. The 8 teams vote to dissolve the Big 12.
3. Big Ten takes Oklahoma and Kansas
4. SEC takes Texas and Texas Tech
5. PAC-12 takes TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State (I really struggle with this one happening, but the other 2 would get first dibs).
(6.) ACC at this point might join the push and take UConn and West Virginia (would still be against).
7. This leaves Iowa State and possibly West Virginia out. They would sue everyone and probably win several of them for significant money if they go as far a court.

Now with all that said, the Big 12 loosing members when it's grant of rights is closer to expiring is very possible (not quite sure I'd go to probable, but it is close).

I'm just sitting here with my popcorn waiting for things to get real.

This whole thing is just incredible and all of the swirling realignment issues make this even more interesting.

I wouldn't quite call it fun, because I feel bad for the good Baylor folks, but goodness is it one hell of a piece of drama.

(05-31-2016 11:07 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I'm just sitting here with my popcorn waiting for things to get real.

This whole thing is just incredible and all of the swirling realignment issues make this even more interesting.

I wouldn't quite call it fun, because I feel bad for the good Baylor folks, but goodness is it one hell of a piece of drama.

The sobering part of the drama is that these institutions, including one of the nation's largest and best endowed, are only where they are because of the uncertainty of their futures with regard to revenue streams.

The football arrangement is just the sideshow of two, possibly more, networks fighting over a product that is cheap to produce and profitable to sell.

But, if institutions that have been around for 150 years and have oodles of living alumni, a state backing them, and millions more of interested fans, are worried about money isn't it time the rest of you wake up? The water hasn't been just turned up by a degree. The frog is about to boil and in the time it and others think about what to do, it will.