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gosports1 Offline
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Post: #161
RE: stevers thoughts
(12-30-2017 02:09 PM)Ole Blue Wrote:  Per Carino, more than 9,000 tickets sold for Seton Hall's game vs St. John's tomorrow. I'll be there, looking forward to it. Hope people show up with the odd start time at 5pm on NYE.

is at the garden?
12-31-2017 11:21 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #162
RE: stevers thoughts
(12-31-2017 11:21 AM)gosports1 Wrote:  
(12-30-2017 02:09 PM)Ole Blue Wrote:  Per Carino, more than 9,000 tickets sold for Seton Hall's game vs St. John's tomorrow. I'll be there, looking forward to it. Hope people show up with the odd start time at 5pm on NYE.

is at the garden?

it's at Seton Hall.

Nice that we have a SH fan.
12-31-2017 01:22 PM
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Ole Blue Offline
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RE: stevers thoughts
Pirate fan checking in! Maybe 8k here today. The energy from the Creighton game has definitely rubbed off at the Rock. Back and forth a lot but Hall up 10 at the half.
12-31-2017 05:56 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #164
RE: stevers thoughts
That was a really entertaining game between SJ and SHU, SJ's supporting guys showed they can score if they have to and the Jonnies did a good job hanging with a team that I think is really good. If St John's can get healthy before it's too late they've got a tournament team in place. Hopefully Ponds and Lovett both return next year - they could really go on a run if they bring everyone back.
01-01-2018 03:57 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: stevers thoughts
just don't see NCAA for St John's. Would need to go 9-7 in conference play- with 9 games left vs Nova, Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall(4 of those on road)- and even after that road games at PC, Marquette, Georgetown, and DePaul.
01-01-2018 04:08 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #166
RE: stevers thoughts
(01-01-2018 04:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just don't see NCAA for St John's. Would need to go 9-7 in conference play- with 9 games left vs Nova, Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall(4 of those on road)- and even after that road games at PC, Marquette, Georgetown, and DePaul.

The injuries have definitely been a problem, but if they get healthy they could make a run late in the year. Their best bet is probably next season though, if they can return everyone while functionally only losing Ahmed (and with a solid recruiting class coming in). Might even be able to get in on Tucker transferring out of Duke.
01-01-2018 04:23 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #167
RE: stevers thoughts
(01-01-2018 04:23 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 04:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just don't see NCAA for St John's. Would need to go 9-7 in conference play- with 9 games left vs Nova, Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall(4 of those on road)- and even after that road games at PC, Marquette, Georgetown, and DePaul.

The injuries have definitely been a problem, but if they get healthy they could make a run late in the year. Their best bet is probably next season though, if they can return everyone while functionally only losing Ahmed (and with a solid recruiting class coming in). Might even be able to get in on Tucker transferring out of Duke.

The probelm for St John's is their schedule the next 5 weeks is just murderers row.
@ Creighton
DePaul
Georgetown
Villanova
@ Xavier
@ Georgetown
Creighton
@ Butler
Xavier
Duke
@ Villanova

11 games and it's very possible to see 3-8 out of those 11. If that happens St John's is 12-12 with 6 games to go. Last 6 games is a bit favorable- but with road games at Marquette and Providence that will be tricky. With even 1 more loss pretty much knocking them out.
01-01-2018 10:03 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #168
RE: stevers thoughts
(01-01-2018 10:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 04:23 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 04:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just don't see NCAA for St John's. Would need to go 9-7 in conference play- with 9 games left vs Nova, Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall(4 of those on road)- and even after that road games at PC, Marquette, Georgetown, and DePaul.

The injuries have definitely been a problem, but if they get healthy they could make a run late in the year. Their best bet is probably next season though, if they can return everyone while functionally only losing Ahmed (and with a solid recruiting class coming in). Might even be able to get in on Tucker transferring out of Duke.

The probelm for St John's is their schedule the next 5 weeks is just murderers row.
@ Creighton
DePaul
Georgetown
Villanova
@ Xavier
@ Georgetown
Creighton
@ Butler
Xavier
Duke
@ Villanova

11 games and it's very possible to see 3-8 out of those 11. If that happens St John's is 12-12 with 6 games to go. Last 6 games is a bit favorable- but with road games at Marquette and Providence that will be tricky. With even 1 more loss pretty much knocking them out.

That's sort of the point though - they need to get fully healthy soon and they might be able to put together enough of a run to grab one of the Big East's last tournament spots. If you think that Lovett isn't all thay good and doesn't make a big difference in terms of on-court product that's one thing (I would disagree). However, right now Georgetown and DePaul are probably the only two Big East teams that can't reasonably hope to make it. Nova, X, the Hall, and Creighton are likely all safely in, and Providence, Marquette, St John's, and Butler could all go either way depending on how conference play shakes out. 6 seems most likely, while 5 and 7 are both in play to varying degrees.
01-01-2018 10:22 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #169
RE: stevers thoughts
(01-01-2018 10:22 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 10:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 04:23 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 04:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just don't see NCAA for St John's. Would need to go 9-7 in conference play- with 9 games left vs Nova, Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall(4 of those on road)- and even after that road games at PC, Marquette, Georgetown, and DePaul.

The injuries have definitely been a problem, but if they get healthy they could make a run late in the year. Their best bet is probably next season though, if they can return everyone while functionally only losing Ahmed (and with a solid recruiting class coming in). Might even be able to get in on Tucker transferring out of Duke.

The probelm for St John's is their schedule the next 5 weeks is just murderers row.
@ Creighton
DePaul
Georgetown
Villanova
@ Xavier
@ Georgetown
Creighton
@ Butler
Xavier
Duke
@ Villanova

11 games and it's very possible to see 3-8 out of those 11. If that happens St John's is 12-12 with 6 games to go. Last 6 games is a bit favorable- but with road games at Marquette and Providence that will be tricky. With even 1 more loss pretty much knocking them out.

That's sort of the point though - they need to get fully healthy soon and they might be able to put together enough of a run to grab one of the Big East's last tournament spots. If you think that Lovett isn't all thay good and doesn't make a big difference in terms of on-court product that's one thing (I would disagree). However, right now Georgetown and DePaul are probably the only two Big East teams that can't reasonably hope to make it. Nova, X, the Hall, and Creighton are likely all safely in, and Providence, Marquette, St John's, and Butler could all go either way depending on how conference play shakes out. 6 seems most likely, while 5 and 7 are both in play to varying degrees.
5 by far is the most likely.
Right now St John's needs to go 9-7 rest of the way. Same with Providence really since they have 4 OOC losses. I just don't see either of them really likely at all to do that. Too many holes, and too much of a gap between the top 3-4 teams and them. I think they could easily go 1-7 or 0-8 even vs top 4 teams. St John's could be fully healthy and still go 3-8 in these 11 games. They aren't as good as Villanova, Xavier and probably vs Creighton or Butler. Heck, I wonder if they're going to be able to beat Georgetown and DePaul on the road. It's just going to be too easy to see top 4-5 teams with winning records- and then 6th place team being like 7-11 or 8-10 at best.
01-01-2018 10:45 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: stevers thoughts
(01-01-2018 10:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  5 by far is the most likely.
Right now St John's needs to go 9-7 rest of the way. Same with Providence really since they have 4 OOC losses. I just don't see either of them really likely at all to do that. Too many holes, and too much of a gap between the top 3-4 teams and them. I think they could easily go 1-7 or 0-8 even vs top 4 teams. St John's could be fully healthy and still go 3-8 in these 11 games. They aren't as good as Villanova, Xavier and probably vs Creighton or Butler. Heck, I wonder if they're going to be able to beat Georgetown and DePaul on the road. It's just going to be too easy to see top 4-5 teams with winning records- and then 6th place team being like 7-11 or 8-10 at best.

I disagree that 5 is the most likely - the depth of the conference is going to work against matchups going chalk all season (you don't have to look further than Butler needing a last-second lucky break to squeak by Georgetown and then following it up by hanging 100 on Nova). That being said, if five did happen it's not necessarily a bad thing for the Big East, as it would mean the top 4 and one other team won basically all the games they were supposed to and thus you're likely looking at favorable seeding for all five teams that make it in after the Big East cleaned up in non-conference play. Getting seven in is always nice (and entirely possible), but five might actually be better for placing multiple teams in the second and third weekends of the tournament.

Still, if I had to pick I'd go with the conference getting 6 bids, with Butler and Marquette getting the last two. St. John's needs some breaks to wind up in the tournament after the bad injury luck and Providence is weirdly Jekyll-and-Hyde this year despite having top-25 talent.
(This post was last modified: 01-01-2018 11:13 PM by Bogg.)
01-01-2018 11:12 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: stevers thoughts
I've said here long time ago getting fewer in but better seeds are better for the conference as a whole. Last year getting the 7 in, but with 4 in the 9-11 line- wasn't great at all. What Lunardi has projected with a 1/2/5/7/9/11 after Wednesday- so 9 will go way up(that's Butler)- and 11 will go away(that's St John's) is much better for the conference.

Marquette btw may really need 10 wins as well in conference play. 9-9 only gets them a 54 RPI.

The problem with the 6-8 group is that they're pinched on both sides. 1-4 in particular but even Butler are really good to the point where those 6-8 teams won't get many wins at all vs them, but 9-10 teams are stronger- so going 4-0 vs them isn't likely either. People want to act like the chalk is only 1 way with the 6-8 teams getting upsets of the top 4-5 teams. It goes the other way as well. You could easily see Georgetown and DePaul holding serve vs all 3 of those teams at home.
01-01-2018 11:27 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #172
RE: stevers thoughts
(01-01-2018 11:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I've said here long time ago getting fewer in but better seeds are better for the conference as a whole. Last year getting the 7 in, but with 4 in the 9-11 line- wasn't great at all. What Lunardi has projected with a 1/2/5/7/9/11 after Wednesday- so 9 will go way up(that's Butler)- and 11 will go away(that's St John's) is much better for the conference.

Eh, can't say I agree, as one of those 11 seeds was X, who wound up going all the way to the Elite 8and set the stage nicely for what's currently a top-5 team. It's a six of one/half dozen of the other situation where obviously higher seeds are preferable, but the more teams you get in the tournament the more chances you have at a team making a run. Tournament appearances also help goose recruiting. It depends on how conference play shakes out, but 5 seems the realistic bare minimum for the conference, with 6 the most likely scenario.

(01-01-2018 11:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Marquette btw may really need 10 wins as well in conference play. 9-9 only gets them a 54 RPI.

The problem with the 6-8 group is that they're pinched on both sides. 1-4 in particular but even Butler are really good to the point where those 6-8 teams won't get many wins at all vs them, but 9-10 teams are stronger- so going 4-0 vs them isn't likely either. People want to act like the chalk is only 1 way with the 6-8 teams getting upsets of the top 4-5 teams. It goes the other way as well. You could easily see Georgetown and DePaul holding serve vs all 3 of those teams at home.

The Big East cleaning up in ooc play is going to help, though, and will likely get a fringe tournament team or two the benefit of the doubt when it comes time to hand out at-large bids. For a team like Marquette who can shoot the lights out, split the conference schedule with one or two real good wins, win a game or two in the conference tournament, and you're probably good. Like I said, it could be any two of Butler, Providence, Marquette, or St John's, but it'll probably be two and not just one.
01-02-2018 09:33 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #173
RE: stevers thoughts
OOC play won't do any good for a team that finishes 7-11 or 8-10 in conference play. It's the individual teams that matter when looking at tourney bids...
lets look-
Providence 9-4 with loss to UMass. Couple of good wins but no wins that will really stand out at the end
St John's 9-2 with game left vs Duke. Best win vs UCF.
Marquette 9-3. likely no tier 1 wins at all. Best win vs either LSU, VCU, or @ Wisconsin(none really that good).

Those 3 teams right now vs tier 1 teams- are only 1-9(with only win being PC over St John's).
01-02-2018 10:27 AM
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RE: stevers thoughts
(01-02-2018 10:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  OOC play won't do any good for a team that finishes 7-11 or 8-10 in conference play. It's the individual teams that matter when looking at tourney bids...
lets look-
Providence 9-4 with loss to UMass. Couple of good wins but no wins that will really stand out at the end
St John's 9-2 with game left vs Duke. Best win vs UCF.
Marquette 9-3. likely no tier 1 wins at all. Best win vs either LSU, VCU, or @ Wisconsin(none really that good).

Those 3 teams right now vs tier 1 teams- are only 1-9(with only win being PC over St John's).

....and we're back to whether the conference gets 5 really good seeds (because for the Big East to only get five it likely means the top 4 and 1 more really tooled up on the rest of the teams) or 6-7 seeds with the last few bids being in that 8-11 range. Either scenario works out well for the conference - they're in excellent shape after OOC play.
01-02-2018 11:20 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: stevers thoughts
(01-02-2018 11:20 AM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 10:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  OOC play won't do any good for a team that finishes 7-11 or 8-10 in conference play. It's the individual teams that matter when looking at tourney bids...
lets look-
Providence 9-4 with loss to UMass. Couple of good wins but no wins that will really stand out at the end
St John's 9-2 with game left vs Duke. Best win vs UCF.
Marquette 9-3. likely no tier 1 wins at all. Best win vs either LSU, VCU, or @ Wisconsin(none really that good).

Those 3 teams right now vs tier 1 teams- are only 1-9(with only win being PC over St John's).

....and we're back to whether the conference gets 5 really good seeds (because for the Big East to only get five it likely means the top 4 and 1 more really tooled up on the rest of the teams) or 6-7 seeds with the last few bids being in that 8-11 range. Either scenario works out well for the conference - they're in excellent shape after OOC play.

Right now looking at Ken Pom- if you take the raw w/l projections....
Xavier- projected to go 14-4 26-5 RPI 3.3
Seton Hall- projected 13-5 24-7 RPI 8.8
Butler- projected 10-8 20-11 RPI 26.5
Nova- 17-1 30-1 RPI 1
Creighton- 13-5 23-7 RPI 16.7

So looking for 3 really top 2-3 seeds and then Creighton would be close to 4/5 range, and Butler would be in the 7-8 quagmire.

I'd take that 100% of the time over getting 7, but having only like 2 top 4 seeds, and then a bunch in the 8-11 mush.
01-02-2018 11:37 AM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: stevers thoughts
(01-02-2018 11:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  So looking for 3 really top 2-3 seeds and then Creighton would be close to 4/5 range, and Butler would be in the 7-8 quagmire.

I'd take that 100% of the time over getting 7, but having only like 2 top 4 seeds, and then a bunch in the 8-11 mush.

Yea, I mean, that's a matter of preference - last year maxing out the number of bids was huge for the Big East, because X's run to the elite 8 really saved things after Nova bowed out early. This year if all four of Nova, X, SH, and Creighton are seemed 5 or better that'd have them sitting nicely as well. There's no wrong answer.
01-02-2018 12:30 PM
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RE: stevers thoughts
(01-02-2018 12:30 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 11:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  So looking for 3 really top 2-3 seeds and then Creighton would be close to 4/5 range, and Butler would be in the 7-8 quagmire.

I'd take that 100% of the time over getting 7, but having only like 2 top 4 seeds, and then a bunch in the 8-11 mush.

Yea, I mean, that's a matter of preference - last year maxing out the number of bids was huge for the Big East, because X's run to the elite 8 really saved things after Nova bowed out early. This year if all four of Nova, X, SH, and Creighton are seemed 5 or better that'd have them sitting nicely as well. There's no wrong answer.

the thing is I don't think you can count on runs from especially 8-10's- but even 11's as well. Too often you get stuck like what has happened in recent years with Providence and Butler- playing a de facto road game in rd 2 vs a 1 seed. I mean this year do you want to be a 8-10 seed and playing Duke or UNC in Charlotte?
01-02-2018 12:46 PM
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RE: stevers thoughts
(01-02-2018 12:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing is I don't think you can count on runs from especially 8-10's- but even 11's as well. Too often you get stuck like what has happened in recent years with Providence and Butler- playing a de facto road game in rd 2 vs a 1 seed. I mean this year do you want to be a 8-10 seed and playing Duke or UNC in Charlotte?

If the alternative is sitting at home? I'll absolutely take a first-round win and my chances in a tough second-round game. UConn wound up in basically the same situation two years ago (after WINNING the AAC, which is its own issue...) and it's 100% better than missing the tournament. Butler made the second weekend last year, while Providence has a great recruiting class coming in that doesn't happen without a string of tournament appearances.
01-02-2018 01:00 PM
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RE: stevers thoughts
(01-02-2018 01:00 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 12:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing is I don't think you can count on runs from especially 8-10's- but even 11's as well. Too often you get stuck like what has happened in recent years with Providence and Butler- playing a de facto road game in rd 2 vs a 1 seed. I mean this year do you want to be a 8-10 seed and playing Duke or UNC in Charlotte?

If the alternative is sitting at home? I'll absolutely take a first-round win and my chances in a tough second-round game. UConn wound up in basically the same situation two years ago (after WINNING the AAC, which is its own issue...) and it's 100% better than missing the tournament. Butler made the second weekend last year, while Providence has a great recruiting class coming in that doesn't happen without a string of tournament appearances.
I was talking more in terms of the conference. I'd take 2 or 3 top 4 seeds over only 1 top 4 seed but then 3-4 teams in the 8-11 range.

Also, Butler last year was a 4 seed. What I was talking about with them was 2 years ago when they get UVA in rd 2 in Raleigh.
01-03-2018 09:45 PM
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RE: stevers thoughts
(01-03-2018 09:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I was talking more in terms of the conference. I'd take 2 or 3 top 4 seeds over only 1 top 4 seed but then 3-4 teams in the 8-11 range.

The Big East is currently positioned to have both 2-3 top 4 seeds and 3-4 teams seeded lower, depending on how the rest of the season shakes out.

(01-03-2018 09:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Also, Butler last year was a 4 seed. What I was talking about with them was 2 years ago when they get UVA in rd 2 in Raleigh.

Sure. I bet Butler fans would tell you that they'd rather have made the tournament and gotten that first-round win over sitting home though, same as I feel about UConn two years ago. The 8/9 is far from ideal, but it's much better than not making it at all.
01-03-2018 10:56 PM
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