I'm not a big follower of recruiting and transfers so this view doesn't consider potential adds. It is more of visceral reaction to each of our competitors and their situations. Think of it as a straw model to be improved - certainly not a finished product.

Scrambling:
Drexel – Need to find a new coach & replace Tavon Allen.
Delaware - Need to replace Kory Holden. It might be hard to sell to new recruits that Ross is anything other than a dead man walking.
JMU – Need to find a new coach & replace Ron Curry. Roster, consisting almost entirely of seniors, will have to adjust to the new coach quickly.

Building:
Elon – Lose Tanner Samson but a very young roster this year. Probably a year or two away.

Reloading:
Hofstra – Does anything need to be said? Of course their roster won’t be set until every unhappy transfer finds a landing spot
Northeastern – Lose the top three in minutes played.

Contenders:
UNC-W – They lose Ponder but that seems to be the only significant loss.
Towson – I think they only lose one starter
CofC – I don’t think losing Canyon Barry will hurt much. Chealey and Riller will return from injury.

I guess i would put us right behind the contenders with the potential to move up. My main concern would be the physicality of the contenders.

Some intel on UNCW.

Transfer Jaquel Richmond - 6'0" 180 lb. G - Sat last year. 3 star guard out of HS. Signed with Houston then the coach left and he decommitted and landed at MTSU. Didn't fit their style, and wanted to play in an uptempo offense. Will be a Junior. Duke was taking a hard look at him as a Sophomore and was rated by ESPN as the 35th. best PG in the nation when he signed with MTSU.

Rookies -

Jaylen Fornes - 6'3" 180 lb. shooting guard. 3 star on scout hoops. Has put up 50 points this year against Australian National team.
http://www.scout.com/college/basketball/...wilmington

Matt Elmore - 6'9" 225 lb. fwd. Can score from every spot on the court. I've seen him play, and he opened up the last game with three straight 3 pointers. He can take alley oops, drive, rebound and is a 3 point threat. UNCW really needs a scorer at the 4 spot to relieve Flemmings who is only 6'5" 175lbs. Prototype 4 in the Keatts system. He had offers from Dexel and JMU.

I would be surprised if UNCW isn't picked to win the CAA next year.

Each day makes it stranger that JMU released Brady and that Delaware is keeping Ross, if you look at on-court results. Seems like money is behind both decisions; it sounds like the buyout for Brady was very cheap this year and Ross just got extended last year.

Ironically it seems both decisions will negatively impact their programs, at least for the next year or two.

Watch JMU overpay for a coach past his prime who has been around the block a few times. There are lots of them who will be out there. If they are smart they will go cherry pick a top assistant from a top program, but I'm not feeling it.

JMU is tricky in my opinion for drawing coaches. It is somewhat in the middle of nowhere (sorry to folks who live out there), it isn't a hot bed for local hoops, and there are no airports nearby. Great college for the students though.