BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- With the quarterfinals in the review mirror, the focus shifts to the remaining four CUSA teams -- Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. In a little more than 24 hours one of these teams will be putting on their dancing shoes.
Western Kentucky (8) vs Old Dominion (5)
Hilltoppers vs Monarchs -- Head to Head
WKU and ODU have met 25 times with the Monarchs leading the series 15 games to 10. As CUSA members, ODU is 5-1 against WKU.
January 21 -- WKU 62 ODU 68
The Hilltoppers led ODU 29-25 at halftime and continued to lead up until the the 9:36 mark of the second half. A Trey Freeman jumper gave the Monarchs the lead 50-48 and they'd never trail again. Freeman scored 28 points for the third consecutive game in a row. The Tops were led by three double figure scorers who all came off the bench. The WKU starters combined for a total of 13 points.
February 18 -- ODU 59 WKU 56
Once again Trey Freeman carried the Monarchs on his back to a victory over the Hilltoppers. Freeman scored a game high 26 points which gives him 54 points in his two meetings against WKU this year. Rostov chipped in 10 points and 6 rebounds off the bench for the Tops and Cosby went 3/8 from behind the arc and led WKU in scoring with 15 points. The Hilltoppers led 56-55 with 0:56 left before a Freeman jumper and a pair a free throws sealed the deal for ODU.
Keys to the Game
It would be ignorant to think at this point that a team is going to stop Trey Freeman. It's not happening. He'll likely score between 20-30 points like he's done against nearly every team in the conference. What's worth watching will be which team's guards will be better. Cosby has been spectacular of late. He's finishing at the basket with ease and has hit 14 threes in the past 4 games. For ODU, Bacote will have to play like he did against La Tech. He needs to score between 10-20 for the Monarchs to be most effective. Look for him to start again today.
The key match ups in this game will be WKU's forwards and ODU's forwards. I'd give the Hilltoppers a slight advantage only because of how great Johnson, Rostov, and Snipes have been of late. Justin Johnson hasn't taken a difficult shot this week. He's scoring in the paint with ease and has become a match up nightmare for opposing team's interior players. I might go as far to say he may be one of the top 2 or 3 interior players in CUSA at the moment.
On the ODU side of things, the Monarch's Stith, Talley, and Taylor have been almost as good. I believe it's safe to assume most ODU fans anticipated Stith was going to be pretty darn great (His brother may be even better!!). Taylor has been a steady 25 minute per game player over his 3 year career at ODU. The freshman Zoran Talley has been the key piece to the Monarchs recent success, in my opinion. He hasn't been a stat sheet filler this week but if you've watched the Monarch's games against FAU and La Tech you'd know he is a difference maker. He was the piece ODU needed and is a much more versatile option than Biberaj.
I predict the Monarchs will win in their typical fist fight style. The wild card here is WKU's perimeter shooting which is ODU's weakness. If the Tops can hit 6 or more threes....it's anyone's game
Middle Tennessee (2) Marshall (3)
Thundering Herd vs Blue Raiders -- Head to Head
Marshall and Middle Tennessee have met 10 times with the Blue Raiders leading the series 7 games to 3. As CUSA members, MTSU is 3-1 against Marshall.
January 28 -- MTSU 66 Marshall 82
The Herd stampeded over the Blue Raiders in a game that wasn't as close as the score. James Kelly had 11 points which were his fewest in CUSA play this year. Marshall hit 12 threes to MTSU's 3 and had 5 double digit scorers. Browning and Elmore each had 3 three pointers. The Blue Raiders were led by sophomore Quavius Copland who had a career high 16 points.
February 27 -- Marshall 74 MTSU 83
Middle held Marshall to their fewest point total in CUSA play this year. Giddy Potts did not play but the 3 headed monster of Upshaw/Harris/Buford accounted for 53 points. The Herd shot just 29% from three and Kelly led the way with 18 points.
Keys to the Game
I've said it many times before. Giddy Potts returning is a game changer for Middle. Give Coach Davis a lot of credit for keeping his team stable and consistent during the two stretches Potts missed this season. Potts hit 3/4 from behind the arc against Charlotte in the quarters and had 18 points.
When Potts is in the line up it makes Middle exponentially harder to handle offensively. He attracts so much attention from behind the arc that it results in great looks for Buford, Harris, and Upshaw. Middle has the best three point shooting forwards in the conference and the best three point shooting guard. It's almost unfair.
Even though Coach Davis has a stable full of capable perimeter shooters he does a masterful job of balancing his offense. To put it in perspective, Marshall has 1 player shooting better than 40% from behind the arc and he plays 4.5 minutes per game. Middle has 4. The Herd have attempted 310 more threes than MTSU this year. Per KenPom.com 49.5% of MTSU's offense come from two pointers and 33.9% from threes.
As vital as Potts is to Middle you can say the same for Marshall's Jon Elmore. Since he became eligible December 14th the Herd havn't been the same. The sophomore point guard is averaging 20.4 points and 6 assists over the last 5 games. Elmore has had more than 10 assists three times during conference play.
Forwards Ryan Taylor and James Kelly are as good as any in the conference. The problem that Coach D'Antoni has is the drop off in depth when either or both get in to foul trouble. Reggie Upshaw makes a living driving to the basket looking to get fouled. The Herd must stay out of foul trouble to have a chance tonight.
I give Middle Tennessee the slight edge tonight because of their depth at the forward position. The first one to 80 tonight might just win this one.
Magic City Madness: Semifinals Preview ![[Image: bracket-02.jpg?w=742&h=576]](https://uabblazerbloggin.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/bracket-02.jpg?w=742&h=576)
