Quote:Houston (CNN)Of all the states, Texas was the one Ted Cruz was not supposed to have to worry about.

As reviled as he may be back in Washington, Cruz has been adored here at tea party rallies and Republican conventions ever since he first upset the political establishment with a shocking come-from-behind victory in 2012. In his home state, Cruz often comes across as a rock star, a leader so admired by the grassroots that his endorsement in legislative primaries is the closest thing to a gold standard in state politics.

But thanks to Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, Cruz's shot at becoming President may end in Texas.

Cruz, despite his appeal as a native son ideologically in sync with a ruby red Republican base, could very well lose the Texas primary next week, a setback that would strike at the core of Cruz's southern political strategy.

Both Trump and Rubio are squeezing Cruz in the Lone Star State, cutting into his lead by blanketing the airwaves and working side by side to engineer an upset. Trump continues to hit Cruz with claims the senator is a "liar," and Rubio wants to show he can win establishment and anti-Trump votes, which means taking from Cruz.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/25/politics/t...day-texas/

I expect a big win in Texas, but I agree with the premise that if he doesn't win there, he is done, but then so is Rubio. Cruz losing Texas is the absolute worse thing that could happen to Rubio and the establishment. The only path Rubio has is the splitter path and a convention fight. 60% of the electorate wants to overturn the apple cart. Rubio cannot get to 50% now that the apple cart has united behind him. He needs to split the 60% to where Trump and Cruz are near even and both win states while he picks up proportional delagates and perhaps picks up a few pro-establishment states, if there are any.

I have gotten a mailer, phone call and seen commecials from Rubio, none from any of the other candidates. So they must be targeting our district

Trump is smart to hammer in Texas. You have to hit a 20% threshhold to get any delagates in the state. Although Trump is likely to do that, its dangerous to take it for granted, because you can hand one guy 10%-15% of the delegates needed to win the nomination if you screw up. It appears to be working, as he and Cruz are tied in the most recent polls in Texas.

Texas is also a state Rubio better be working hard to get to 20% as well, or else he will fall way behind in the delegate count. The latest poll has Cruz at 32%, Trump at 32%, and Rubio at 17%. Thats bad news for Rubio. Thats a hole that will be extremely hard to climb out of.

(02-25-2016 09:47 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  I expect a big win in Texas, but I agree with the premise that if he doesn't win there, he is done, but then so is Rubio. Cruz losing Texas is the absolute worse thing that could happen to Rubio and the establishment. The only path Rubio has is the splitter path and a convention fight. 60% of the electorate wants to overturn the apple cart. Rubio cannot get to 50% now that the apple cart has united behind him. He needs to split the 60% to where Trump and Cruz are near even and both win states while he picks up proportional delagates and perhaps picks up a few pro-establishment states, if there are any.

All the polls and my personal interactions with Cruz supporters disagree with that assessment

To show how bad it would be for Rubio not to get to 20% of the vote in Texas, the delegate count (without taking into consideration any other state from the SEC primary) for everything up and including Texas would be:

Trump: ~150
Cruz: ~100
Rubio: 17

The reason the other states dont matter is because they are proportional if you get 15% or 20% of the vote, and both Trump and Cruz are in good shape to do that in all of them. But in the largest state to date, Rubio is in danger of not getting to the 20% threshold, which will allow Cruz and Trump to split the delegates and leave Rubio out.

cruz won the primary in a packed field, and, as far as the US senate goes, once you win the republican nomination in texas, you automatically win the general election.

the windup is that I'm not sure how popular he is, even in TX. I seem to recall that his approval/disapproval numbers were upside-down at one point.

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/3221225...51cc4a.pdf

Fresh off the presses. Cruz +15. 3 day poll including yesterday (Abbot endorsement). We'll see the total effect this weekend.

People like to vote for winners. Trump is going to grow in strength in Texas.

(02-25-2016 12:10 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/3221225...51cc4a.pdf

Fresh off the presses. Cruz +15. 3 day poll including yesterday (Abbot endorsement). We'll see the total effect this weekend.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/poll...-primary#!

Great link... but the clear thing that it shows, is thats no one knows who the fudge is going to win lol

I am expecting cruz to win his home state, but I think Texas (like Virginia) has no party registration so is an open primary.

Another question for people on this board is that I understand Rubio is going to grovel to Jeb! this week for an endorsement. If the Bushes do endorse, would that help Rubio in Texas?

I don't think Bush will endorse Rubio, not with his son's career at stake.

(02-25-2016 12:17 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  

(02-25-2016 12:10 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/3221225...51cc4a.pdf

Fresh off the presses. Cruz +15. 3 day poll including yesterday (Abbot endorsement). We'll see the total effect this weekend.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/poll...-primary#!

Great link... but the clear thing that it shows, is thats no one knows who the fudge is going to win lol

and that poll would show that both Trump and Cruz are within the margin of error of not receiving any Texas delagates. Although better for Rubio if Trump fails to get delegates, the main winner would be Cruz, who would likely hold the lead in delegates after March 1st, no matter how many other primaries Trump wins.

Thats why Trump is probably hustling in Texas right now. If Trump wins Texas, its game over. If Trump can get delegates, its close to being game over. If Trump gets no delegates from Texas, he's got a serious fight o his hands and the primary will go on longer than he wants.

If Rubio gets no delegates in Texas, he will be morbidly behind. He needs to win at least one SEC state in order to show he can win something when the winner takes all states come into play.

(02-25-2016 01:08 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  I don't think Bush will endorse Rubio, not with his son's career at stake.

Just wondering.

I checked with my nephew and he Early Voted for Cruz.

(02-25-2016 02:06 PM)dcCid Wrote:  

(02-25-2016 01:08 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  I don't think Bush will endorse Rubio, not with his son's career at stake.

Just wondering.

I don't think Bush's endorsement would help him much. I do think he might get the endorsement, but not until after Texas.

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(02-25-2016 02:09 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-25-2016 02:06 PM)dcCid Wrote:  

(02-25-2016 01:08 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  I don't think Bush will endorse Rubio, not with his son's career at stake.

Just wondering.

I don't think Bush's endorsement would help him much. I do think he might get the endorsement, but not until after Texas.

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It may help Rubio in Florida.

(02-25-2016 01:02 PM)dcCid Wrote:  I am expecting cruz to win his home state, but I think Texas (like Virginia) has no party registration so is an open primary.

Another question for people on this board is that I understand Rubio is going to grovel to Jeb! this week for an endorsement. If the Bushes do endorse, would that help Rubio in Texas?

Rubio really wants Jeb to encourage his wealthy friends to give money to Rubio. Rubio doesn't have the cash he needs at this point to challenge Trump. He's got a lot more than Kasich and Carson, but not enough.

If he wants help in Texas, he needs Barbara's endorsement.