Trump wins in a landslide and everybody else in no particular order.

(02-17-2016 03:11 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Nikki Haley to endorse Rubio. Not sure why she decided to take so long, as it surprises no one (at least with a clue). Gowdy and Scott have both been on board with Rubio for a while, and she obviously was NEVER going to back Trump or Cruz.

Anyone think this will give Rubio a bump? Did she wait too long for it to matter?

Nope, Jeb is throwing down the gauntlet and pulling out the stops. He's making a terrific stalking horse.

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(02-17-2016 03:55 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 03:42 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  Is Trump still expected to have a big victory in SC, even after his anti-W, anti-Iraq rant?

You realize George W. Bush is toxic everywhere -- even in SC -- right?

His debate rant was not on point for a SC GOP primary debate full of GOP leadership peoples. It was totally on point for everybody else.

Doesn't matter. There are 6 people in the field. Even if 30% of the Primary voters love GWB and 70% hate him (and I doubt it is that bad), that's a win for Jeb when competing for 3rd at around 12%-15% will keep him in the race.

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(02-17-2016 05:59 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 03:55 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 03:42 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  Is Trump still expected to have a big victory in SC, even after his anti-W, anti-Iraq rant?

You realize George W. Bush is toxic everywhere -- even in SC -- right?

His debate rant was not on point for a SC GOP primary debate full of GOP leadership peoples. It was totally on point for everybody else.

Doesn't matter. There are 6 people in the field. Even if 30% of the Primary voters love GWB and 70% hate him (and I doubt it is that bad), that's a win for Jeb when competing for 3rd at around 12%-15% will keep him in the race.

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W. has something like a 77% favorable approval rating in South Carolina. He is not toxic by any means.

(02-17-2016 06:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 05:59 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 03:55 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 03:42 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  Is Trump still expected to have a big victory in SC, even after his anti-W, anti-Iraq rant?

You realize George W. Bush is toxic everywhere -- even in SC -- right?

His debate rant was not on point for a SC GOP primary debate full of GOP leadership peoples. It was totally on point for everybody else.

Doesn't matter. There are 6 people in the field. Even if 30% of the Primary voters love GWB and 70% hate him (and I doubt it is that bad), that's a win for Jeb when competing for 3rd at around 12%-15% will keep him in the race.

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W. has something like a 77% favorable approval rating in South Carolina. He is not toxic by any means.

Lots of military and retired military in SC is a big reason.

And that fact is a big reason why Jeb needs to drop out. If he can't carry a state with that high of an approval rate of his brother he's screwed elsewhere.

(02-17-2016 05:25 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Trump wins in a landslide and everybody else in no particular order.

This

(02-17-2016 05:16 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  And they lie to do that, like blaming the 2009 deficit all on Bush, so they can then claim that Obama has reduced it. Obama added something like $400-600 billion to the 2009 deficit after Bush left office, there's no logical way that can be attributed to Bush. And if you attribute that properly to Obama, he hasn't reduced anything. His smallest budget deficit is still larger than any budget deficit that Bush signed off on. And his 8-year total deficit will dwarf any deficit anybody has ever rung up. But Bush did such a poor job with the deficit that republicans are really on the back foot to criticize Obama.

Bush's wars and tax cuts have been massive contributors to the debt, not to mention the Great Recession he handed Obama--

(02-17-2016 05:25 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 04:46 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Hillary wins SC by 10.

You are off your rocker.

Bernie is going to get an I-95 smackdown by black voters. Bank on it: Bernie loses by over 30 points in some counties along the I-95 corridor. He loses SC by at least 15, and probably 20.

Unlike Iowa and NH, there are actually black people in SC. Lots of them. And they don't feel the Bern. People forgot that when gay marriage was constitutionally banned in SC, it lost heaviest along I-95 and the counties well S/SE of Charlotte. That's right -- the people who make up Jim Clyburn's district voted down gay marriage harder than the people in the precincts around Bob Jones University.

The Democrats like to present themselves as some gloriously united front ... but they aren't. There are big rifts in the Democrat Party just as there are in the GOP. Black evangelicals is just one of the many. I'm waiting for the hilarious return of the "anti-war" left. Assuming Hillary -- the most pro-war Democrat OF THE MODERN ERA -- stops giving it to them unlubed long enough for them speak.

Same thing happened in the Illinois gay marriage debate a few years ago. But those religious AAs are also very economically liberal, which of course Bernie speaks to more. The latest polls out of SC have the spread at 18 with Bernie gaining momentum, and there's still a week and a half until the vote. It'll probably be between 10-15, but my hope is less than 10. It's probably her best state, and if she can't win by double digits we're in good shape. Al Sharpton and Jim Clyburn are big x factors here, but I'm not holding out a lot of hope they'll come down on Bernie's side.

I'm part of the antiwar left and I'm scared as hell that Hillary is going to launch a couple ill advised wars. Foreign policy and Wall Street are two big red flags for me with her.

Edit: Apparently an ARG poll just came out showing a 30 point spread? Hoping that's an outlier.

(02-17-2016 06:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 05:59 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 03:55 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 03:42 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  Is Trump still expected to have a big victory in SC, even after his anti-W, anti-Iraq rant?

You realize George W. Bush is toxic everywhere -- even in SC -- right?

His debate rant was not on point for a SC GOP primary debate full of GOP leadership peoples. It was totally on point for everybody else.

Doesn't matter. There are 6 people in the field. Even if 30% of the Primary voters love GWB and 70% hate him (and I doubt it is that bad), that's a win for Jeb when competing for 3rd at around 12%-15% will keep him in the race.

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W. has something like a 77% favorable approval rating in South Carolina. He is not toxic by any means.

I don't think so either. Was just making a point.

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(02-17-2016 05:25 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 04:46 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Hillary wins SC by 10.

You are off your rocker.

Bernie is going to get an I-95 smackdown by black voters. Bank on it: Bernie loses by over 30 points in some counties along the I-95 corridor. He loses SC by at least 15, and probably 20.

Unlike Iowa and NH, there are actually black people in SC. Lots of them. And they don't feel the Bern. People forgot that when gay marriage was constitutionally banned in SC, it lost heaviest along I-95 and the counties well S/SE of Charlotte. That's right -- the people who make up Jim Clyburn's district voted down gay marriage harder than the people in the precincts around Bob Jones University.

The Democrats like to present themselves as some gloriously united front ... but they aren't. There are big rifts in the Democrat Party just as there are in the GOP. Black evangelicals is just one of the many. I'm waiting for the hilarious return of the "anti-war" left. Assuming Hillary -- the most pro-war Democrat OF THE MODERN ERA -- stops giving it to them unlubed long enough for them speak.

I've already tried, Max isn't interested in facts.

(02-17-2016 06:33 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Edit: Apparently an ARG poll just came out showing a 30 point spread? Hoping that's an outlier.

In 2006, SC banned gay marriage 78/22.



Some select counties on that vote:

- Greenville (home to Bob Jones ... I-85 corridor ... Trey Gowdy's CD): 79.5% favor banning gay marriage
- Chesterfield (N/NW of I-95) ... 85.95% favor banning
- Dillion (Heart of I-95 ... Ben Bernanke's home town) .... 86.67% favor banning
- Clarendon (Heart of I-95 and middle of Jim Clyburn's CD) ... 81.9% favor banning

It wouldn't shock me to see Hillary pull some ludicrous 40% margins in some of these I-95 areas... particularly Chesterfield, Lancaster, Kershaw, Darlington, Lee, and Dillon.

(02-17-2016 08:40 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 06:33 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Edit: Apparently an ARG poll just came out showing a 30 point spread? Hoping that's an outlier.

In 2006, SC banned gay marriage 78/22.



Some select counties on that vote:

- Greenville (home to Bob Jones ... I-85 corridor ... Trey Gowdy's CD): 79.5% favor banning gay marriage
- Chesterfield (N/NW of I-95) ... 85.95% favor banning
- Dillion (Heart of I-95 ... Ben Bernanke's home town) .... 86.67% favor banning
- Clarendon (Heart of I-95 and middle of Jim Clyburn's CD) ... 81.9% favor banning

It wouldn't shock me to see Hillary pull some ludicrous 40% margins in some of these I-95 areas... particularly Chesterfield, Lancaster, Kershaw, Darlington, Lee, and Dillon.

The Corridor of Shame typically votes for whomever the man in the pulpit tells them to vote for. Hillary has spent more time shuckin' and jivin' in those same pulpits with her fake ebonic accent than Comrade Bernie has so I expect she'll wallup him there. Bernie will make it closer in the urban centers, but nowhere near enough.

(02-16-2016 09:59 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  I don't think Kasich will even hit double digits.

Yep.

My prediction was good here. Trump wins, tie for 2nd with the rest back in the field. Trump, Kasich, and Bush underperforming with Cruz and Rubio over performing. There was a poll from ARG that kept putting Kasich in 2nd or 3rd, which skewed me a little.

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Is St. George in the Corridor of Shame?

(02-21-2016 07:38 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  Is St. George in the Corridor of Shame?

Yes. It's pretty much the I95 corridor.

(02-21-2016 07:46 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:38 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  Is St. George in the Corridor of Shame?

Yes. It's pretty much the I95 corridor.

St. George is my patron saint so it is disappointing to see that a town for him is so depressed. What is wrong with the corridor of shame? How did it happen?

(02-22-2016 09:56 AM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:46 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:38 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  Is St. George in the Corridor of Shame?

Yes. It's pretty much the I95 corridor.

St. George is my patron saint so it is disappointing to see that a town for him is so depressed. What is wrong with the corridor of shame? How did it happen?

Very poor population. very poor schools because their leaders didn't do what the leaders in Charleston, Grand Strand, Midlands, G-SP-A, and Rock Hill areas did starting in the 1970's and invest in infrastructure to attract industry. Now since they have almost nothing for a tax base they want the rest of the state to pay for everything for them.