Week 5 Edition: Who will NOT win in Baltimore (and those that might)
With Week 5 wrapped up, how did teams fare in moving up or down in the ratings?
As usual, teams are graded 0-10 on the following categories:
* Coaching
* Veteran presences
* Depth (both quality and quantity)
* Turnover success (creation on defense and avoidance on offense)
* Control of the paint (offensive putbacks and shot changing/blocking)
* Free throw shooting (who can make them with tired legs?)
I have provided the changes since last week for each category, to show how teams have moved up or down with the new information at hand.
Enjoy!
Thru Week 5: Teams that will not win in Baltimore
Delaware
Coaching: 0
Veteran Presences: 6
Depth: 1
Turnover Success: 0
Control of the Paint: 5
Free Throw Shooting: 4 (+ 1)
TOTAL SCORE: 16 (+ 1)
Not much has changed for Delaware. The only area that have improved in is Free Throw Shooting, where they now rank 6th in the league in CAA-only
games.
Elon
Coaching: 6 (+ 1)
Veteran Presences: 4
Depth: 4
Turnover Success: 2
Control of the Paint: 3 (+ 2)
Free Throw Shooting: 0
TOTAL SCORE: 19 (+ 3)
After a 2-point loss to Hofstra and a victory over Northeastern, the Phoneix showed they can still be a threat for an upset. They blocked 4 Hofstra shots and were only -3 on the boards in that contest. Against Northeastern, they outrebounded the Huskies (44-29) and blocked a couple shots. But keep in mind that a lot of teams have been controlling the paint against Northeastern while Quincy Ford has been out. Still, these are steps in the right direction for a mostly overmatched squad.
Charleston
Coaching: 6
Veteran Presences: 2
Depth: 5
Turnover Success: 5
Control of the Paint: 3
Free Throw Shooting: 2 (+ 1)
TOTAL SCORE: 26 (+ 1)
Charleston went 1-1 on the weekend, with a victory over Northeastern and hard fought loss against UNCW. They displayed mostly what they have been for the last few weeks after the loss of Canyon Barry, though their FT shooting has improved slightly.
Drexel
Coaching: 1
Veteran Presences: 4
Depth: 3
Turnover Success: 9
Control of the Paint: 3 (-1)
Free Throw Shooting: 8
TOTAL SCORE: 28 (- 1)
The Dragons lost 2 close games to Towson and Hofstra this week, proving they're still willing to fight. However, their previous strength, post play, has evaporated among their short list of advantages. Drexel is still decent at blocking or changing shots on the inside, but their rebounding abilities have taken a bit of a nose dive the last few weeks. They will need to block out better to have a shot at making it to the CAA Quarterfinals.
Teams that might win in Baltimore
Northeastern
Coaching: 9 (- 1)
Veteran Presences: 5 (- 2)
Depth: 1 (- 1)
Turnover Success: 7
Control of the Paint: 0 (- 2)
Free Throw Shooting: 9
TOTAL SCORE: 31 (- 6)
The wheels are falling off for the Huskies, who have now lost 4 straight contests. Quincy Ford's continued absence is a huge factor, but no longer can be considered the only reason for the team's failings. His absence has merely highlighted bigger problems: Lack of depth behind him and lack of other interior presences. Ford could not have hoped to replace the graduation of Sean Eatherton all on his own, and promising freshman Jeremy Miller, much like many freshmen big men who take time to develop, was not ready for the starting role he was thrust into. Coach Coen will need to make major adjustments to have his team ready for the tournament a month from now, as currently, the Huskies are headed for the play-in round after starting CAA play 3-0.
Hofstra
Coaching: 5 (+ 1)
Veteran Presences: 10
Depth: 0
Turnover Success: 6 (- 1)
Control of the Paint: 9
Free Throw Shooting: 2 (- 1)
TOTAL SCORE: 32 (- 1)
The Pride labored through a pair of close wins against Elon and Drexel this past week. Though this made them winners of 6 of their last 7, yours truly continues to wonder if the overworked starting 5 is starting to wear down. Denton Koon totaled 75 minutes, Juan'Ya Green 74, and Brian Bernardi 71 in the 2 contests this past week. With a red hot UNCW team coming into Hempstead Thursday night for a tilt that will determine who is 1st place on their own, their endurance could be tested.
Best bets to win in Baltimore
Towson
Coaching: 7
Veteran Presences: 8
Depth: 3
Turnover Success: 1 (+ 1)
Control of the Paint: 10
Free Throw Shooting: 6
TOTAL SCORE: 35 (+ 1)
The Tigers continue to build momentum towards the final CAA Conference Tournament in their own backyard, at least for the near future. They continue to dominate the posts and have a very strong starting 5, which led to a pair of victories over the past week. As a result, they jump into the group of teams I feel have the best shot at winning the title for the first time.
James Madison
Coaching: 6
Veteran Presences: 10
Depth: 9
Turnover Success: 3 (- 1)
Control of the Paint: 6 (-1)
Free Throw Shooting: 2 (- 2)
TOTAL SCORE: 36 (- 2)
JMU dropped a pair of tough games last week to UNCW and W&M, losing both their overall winning streak (6) and road winning streak (7) in the process, and free throw shooting was a major reason why. Yohanny Dalemberty in particular was a miserable 4-10 in the Seahawk game, with a pair of airballs to boot, and as a squad the Dukes were 59.6 % from the stripe in the 2 games. This weakness could be taken full advantage of in the CAA Tournament if it is not improved. In addition, the Dukes turned the ball over 15 times against the Tribe and were outrebounded 50-35 against UNCW. These were previously not major flaws for the Dukes but will also need to get sorted out down the stretch.
UNCW
Coaching: 7
Veteran Presences: 4
Depth: 6 (- 1)
Turnover Success: 9
Control of the Paint: 7 (+ 2)
Free Throw Shooting: 6 (- 1)
TOTAL SCORE: 39
The Seahawks do not improve their overall rating despite improving their winning streak to 7, because everything they were doing positively before this week are continuing to show up just as they were. Moreover, they have a brutal finish to their schedule, and thus their prior schedule strength has to be taken into account. Still, with the continuing emergence of CJ Gettys and Chuck Ogbodo in the interior, this team is looking legit. An upset in Hampstead Thursday night is not far-fetched.
William & Mary
Coaching: 10
Veteran Presences: 9
Depth: 7 (- 1)
Turnover Success: 4 (+ 3)
Control of the Paint: 7
Free Throw Shooting: 7 (+ 1)
TOTAL SCORE: 44 (+ 3)
Somewhat quietly, W&M improved their positioning in the standings with a pair of wins. They exorcized some demons with their victory against Delaware, who they've struggled with in a big way in the past, and also protected their home floor against a strong road team in JMU. The Tribe only committed 12 turnovers combined in the 2 games, improving in an area of weakness in a big way. Their depth has become somewhat constrained to whether Connor Burchfield happens to be hot from the perimeter, but at the very least their bench players are able to defend capably and keep their starters rested for the long haul of the season. W&M remains the top contender to win the league, as they have been in these ratings every week.
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Week 5 Edition: Who will NOT win in Baltimore (and those that might)
