(12-07-2015 09:23 AM)JesseTU Wrote: TV Contract is good until 2025. Not having a championship game this year guaranteed OU a slot in the playoff. Having a conference championship game cost Iowa a slot in the playoff this year - had the Big 10 #2 team been ranked 10th, it would have cost the Big10 their playoff spot.
What he said was "we really don't want to add schools, but if the NCAA screws us - we might have to."
What Memphis, UCF, Houston, Cinci, ECU, BYU, and Boise fans heard was "ZOMG!11!!! We really want to add [insert school here] to our conference. We never wanted them before, but now we totally think they will bring in more than $26mil a year in additional revenue! so they won't just be a leach."
Pretty much this. The elephant in the room is that if any available school added value, they already would have been offered. What does that mean?
Well, it means that the programs available haven't done enough to earn a bid.
Instead of picking and choosing, let's go through EVERY school that has recent on the field product success, school $, large fan base, good media market, and is AAU or is a public system flagship.
Cincy
Houston
UCONN
Memphis
ECU
Tulane
Temple
SMU
Rice
Buffalo
UCF
USF
BYU
Boise
If you rank the factors from easiest to hardest to improve, it looks like this:
Winning . . . Fans . . . Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AAU/Academics . . . . . . And that's it. Media markets, and system flagship status are immutable.
That leaves you with 9 candidates that can possibly check all the boxes, Houston, UCONN, Buffalo, SMU, Tulane, Temple, BYU, Memphis and Rice. But none are good choices right now. UCONN, is just too far away. Temple/Buffalo is at least closer to WVU but still very far away. Temple needs more fans and $. Buffalo needs success, support and $. UH needs to build its fan base. Tulane and Rice need to put a good product on the field so they can build their fan bases. SMU needs to get its house in order, and rebuild a fan base. BYU is... well BYU. They're out. If BYU was going to happen it would happen already.
UH is the frontrunner of all of these, but is already in TX. UH in puts Rice out, and Rice is just too far behind. Same for SMU. Memphis has had some success, and is a system flagship. But unlike Houston (a flagship of a secondary system in a massive city and massive state), Memphis is the flagship of a second state system in a small city and state. How much can they really compete with the Vols for their market?
So if I'm the BigXII, I'm waiting until UH/Memphis and either Tulane/Buffalo/or Temple make themselves a value add. I only panic and make a move before my ideal candidates are ready if forced to get a championship game. And with OU making the playoff without a championship game, what's the rush?
If you panic and have to expand now, I'd go with Memphis and UH today. But it's a risk. If I'm allowed to wait until 2025, I'd wait to see what happens. Can UH, Temple and Memphis sustain success and build fan bases? Could Tulane rebuild itself and bring back the glory days? Or can Buffalo turn into something people want to watch?
Best case scenario, from BIGXII point of view, is UH collapse, Tulane miracle and Memphis sustained success. That gives you a bridge to WVU, and inroads into the SEC from both the north and south, in the best recruiting ground in the country. And with UH collapse you don't cannibalize the TX market any further. But if UH continues to get better politics will take over. And if Tulane can't get its act together it doesn't matter how much potential may be there you need to move on.