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The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
Higher seeds don't guarantee victories either. More teams only improve the league's odds of having one (or multiple) schools go far in the dance.
12-15-2015 02:15 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
(12-15-2015 02:15 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Higher seeds don't guarantee victories either. More teams only improve the league's odds of having one (or multiple) schools go far in the dance.

but at the same time, if you lower a 6 seed to a 8 seed, you are pretty much dooming that team.

Also, no guarantee that more teams in tourney = more money. If the existing teams win more games, that's not the case at all.
12-15-2015 02:44 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
revisiting now vs last year start of conference play
Villanova 4 now vs 6 last year +2
Xavier 9 now vs 28 last year +19
Butler 29 now vs 37 last year +8
Georgetown 46 now vs 30 last year -16
Providence 47 now vs 50 last year +3
Seton Hall 53 now vs 41 last year -12
Creighton 58 now vs 79 last year +21
Marquette 74 now vs 103 last year +29
St John's 166 now vs 16 last year -150
DePaul 177 now vs 204 last year +27

last year ranks 6,16,28,30,37,41,50,79,103,204
this year ranks 4,9,29,46,47,53,58,74,166,177
just looking- top 2 better, 4-7 group better last year, 9th much better last year, 10th much better this year.

also last year entering conference play:
Ken pom- 59.4 vs 66.3 this year
RPI- 69.4 vs 80.5 this year
RPI Forecast- 70.1 vs 75.8 this year

It's funny, the perception seems SO much stronger this year vs last year- but the numbers don't bare it out. The RPI is interesting as well(granted it's still 2 weeks out). We entered conference play last year with 6 top 40 teams in the RPI. and a 7th at 57. This year we have 3 top 26 teams, Butler at 47 and Seton Hall at 59- then next team is Georgetown at 104.

Hopefully the 2 weeks out part is right- but there again, have some RPI bombs left on the schedule.
12-16-2015 10:38 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
it's funny- what has happened the Big East has become a LOT more top heavy. The top 4 teams have separated a lot from the other 6. And that's a GREAT thing IMO. Your perception as a conference is built on your top teams. It's not built on how good your 9th place team is. You don't hear conferences say our 9th place team can kick your 9th place teams ass. It's built totally on how good your best is.
12-27-2015 11:23 PM
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Burrito Offline
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Post: #25
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
01-25-2016 07:37 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
interesting coming back to this thread at this point of the season..... The top 3 teams have really kind of separated perception wise- although Creighton and Georgetown are tied standings wise with X and PC. Butler has fallen off big time. HUGE week for them IMO. Saw today that only 1 team in history made the tourney if they were 4 or more games below .500 in conference play. So that would mean they absolutely need to get at least 6 more conference wins here to end the season. And even there- they could wind up having to play in the 7/10 game vs St John's which would be a 3rd RPI bomb from St John's for their SOS.

This week just 2 must win games for Butler. A loss in either is a bad loss, and also a 6th conference loss. With Georgetown x2, Seton Hall x2, Xavier, Nova left on the schedule- along with 2nd Creighton game- wouldn't want to head into that stretch needing to go even 3-4 in that stretch. This year just isn't connecting for Butler at all.
01-26-2016 12:33 AM
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Burrito Offline
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Post: #27
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
Butler had a tough schedule to start the Big East season but three of their next four games are against DePaul, St. Johns and Marquette. Those three should finish at the bottom of the Big East standings. Butler needs to win those games. The fourth game is against Georgetown. The Hoyas are wildly inconsistent this year, so that is a winnable game for Butler as well.
01-26-2016 08:49 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
If the Marquette game was home for Butler I'd say that'd be close to a lock. But it's on the road.

And frankly wouldn't want to look past tomorrow night with DePaul. DePaul coming off win @ Marquette in a fashion that could turn a season around. Will be real interesting to see that game.
01-26-2016 03:28 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
DePaul has been very competitive this year in Big East play, despite it's record both this year and last. They are noticeably improved in terms of competition since last year. I knew going into the DePaul game that there was significant chance of an upset, although it didn't make it hurt any less.

Butler can easily turn things around with wins against DePaul, St. Johns and us. It won't be easy, but certainly doable - and the way I've seen Butler play this year, I think that is what ends up happening.

Georgetown could very well end up with a weak OOC record, strong conference record and have potential to challenge for the Big East tournament championship in March. They have had the talent to be a top-25 team all season long, but for whatever reason, JTIII hasn't been able to get the group to gel. They will be team to watch as the season concludes.
01-26-2016 03:38 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
Yeah the Chicago Franchise has improved quite a bit. Now if we can get the New York Franchise turned around we may have something..... That would be pure gr8ness!!!!

on a serious note- won't be shocked if Butler wins those 3 games. But even there if they lose to Georgetown still only 5-6 with 7 games to go. With @ Seton Hall, Xavier, Creighton, @ Nova, @ Georgetown, Seton Hall, and Marquette left. Needing at least 3 of those 7, if not quite possibly 4. going to be really interesting.....
01-26-2016 04:57 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
I think something funny right now....
folks think Butler is a near lock, while Georgetown is hanging on barely by a thread....

but look at the RPI right now....
Butler 60
Georgetown 71

Not that big of a difference at all whatsoever.
01-28-2016 09:57 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
well so much for Butler. 3-6 and in absolute deep trouble. They need at least 5 if not 6 wins to get in the tourney right now...
01-30-2016 08:13 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
Villanova/Xavier/Providence are locks. Georgetown/Seton Hall/Creighton/Marquette are battling for one, maybe two, spots in the tournament. Marquette unquestionably has the biggest hill to climb. Losing to DePaul was a killer, and their OOC schedule was atrocious.

I can't even begin to guess how the conference shakes out over the next four weeks. Any team can go on a run where they win a couple games and catapult themselves into a spot in the tournament. It'll be fun to watch.
01-31-2016 10:59 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
the double round robin with Seton Hall/Butler/Georgetown is going to tell everything. Butler, Georgetown need to go 3-1 to have a shot, Seton Hall likely is ok at 2-2 if they can beat Marquette...

Creighton/Marquette need 7 wins to have any shot. It's not happening.......
02-01-2016 01:42 AM
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Burrito Offline
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Post: #35
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
With wins over USC (NCAA), Texas Tech (NCAA) and Alabama (NIT) this week, the Big East's record versus the P5 this year is now 29-18. To make it to the Sweet Sixteen though, the conference will need to beat the more elite teams. The wins are going to be harder to come by.
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2016 10:01 AM by Burrito.)
03-19-2016 09:25 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
record vs P5 can be such a joke. who give a rip with games like Rutgers or Boston College or Auburn. I mean, Gonzaga is a billion times better/more important than them, but not supposed to count them because of a label? NO.
03-19-2016 01:11 PM
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Burrito Offline
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Post: #37
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
Stever, you technically don't have to respond to every post on this thread. I included ALL P5 games (which is now approaching 50), not just games against bottom tier teams. Yes Gonzaga is a good program. Will that school have the financial resources to hire an up and coming coach once Few leaves/retires? Or would that up and coming coach rather wait for a spot with a P5 school? We shall see.
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2016 08:52 AM by Burrito.)
03-19-2016 02:01 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
(03-19-2016 02:01 PM)Burrito Wrote:  Stever, you technically don't have to respond to every post on this thread. I included ALL P5 games, not just games against bottom tier teams. Yes Gonzaga is a good program. Will that school have the financial resources to hire an up and coming coach once Few leaves/retires? Or would that up and coming coach rather wait for a spot with a P5 school? We shall see.

3 wins were vs Rutgers
2 vs Nebraska
1 vs Illinois
1 vs Missouri
1 vs Auburn
1 vs BC
1 vs WF

I'm sorry- but far more important than that are the wins over Cincy for example. Also some Big East fans are so hypocritical. They don't like the P5 dominating everything, but then they want to use records vs those conferences, even though other conferences have teams that are better. So labels suck in one side of the mouth, but then on the other side of the mouth let's use them to act like we're superior than other conferences.

Far more impressive than your stat is that we're 18-12 vs teams that made the NCAA tournament. With only UNC Asheville as a smaller team(and that's 1-1 even).
03-19-2016 02:15 PM
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Burrito Offline
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Post: #39
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
Stever, why do you always get so bent out of shape and then respond with one of your "I'm sorry, but" replies? I don't care that the P5 programs dominate college sports. They are mostly state schools with large alumni bases and great facilities that receive taxpayer funding. My basic point is that the Big East is still competing with them in basketball. That's all. If you want to throw in the point that other G5 schools are competing with them as well, that's fine. I have nothing against the AAC like some Big East posters do.
03-19-2016 02:39 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
my point is that 10 of those wins are so meaningless, it makes the stat totally meaningless. I mean Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, Missouri, Auburn, BC, and Wake are garbage. Games against schools like Gonzaga, Cincy, Temple, UConn, etc. mean a billion times more than those games vs the weaker p5 schools. It's far more impressive that against teams in the tourney, the Big East went 18-12. That's you know against teams that are actually good this year....
03-19-2016 03:08 PM
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