Toledo is 9-1 and 6-1 in the MAC West. But Northern Illinois is 6-1 in the MAC West. And Northern Illinois beat Toledo.

Toledo can't go to the NY6 unless it wins its conference. And it can't win the conference if it doesn't win its division.

For Toledo to even qualify for the MAC Title game, Northern Illinois has to lose at home next Tuesday to 7-4 Ohio. Then Toledo would have to beat 6-5 Western Michigan at home next Friday.

If Toledo doesn't qualify for the MAC Title game, then the MAC champion will have at least 3 losses.

In that case, if the winner of Marshall and Western Ky wins CUSA and finishes with 2 losses, they are the only real threat to the American for the G5 auto bid.

Which would mean the AAC would have no threat for the access bowl, even if it was South Florida.

(11-18-2015 11:43 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  For Toledo to even qualify for the MAC Title game, Northern Illinois has to lose at home next Tuesday to 7-4 Ohio. Then Toledo would have to beat 6-5 Western Michigan at home next Friday.

That two-step sequence might be labeled "unlikely", but it would hardly be a miracle.

Arkansas converting that 4th and 25 against Ole Miss, now that was a miracle.

Toledo looks very much trapped in the MAC West. They could go 11-1 and not make the conference championship game.

The reality is most likely the Navy/Houston game winner is going to end up with the automatic bid.

Temple takes out Memphis and they'll be on track to be a 2 loss representative as a conference winner.

(11-19-2015 12:22 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Which would mean the AAC would have no threat for the access bowl, even if it was South Florida.

NIU can still get the nod at 10-3 over 9-4 USF. I can at least say with confidence it wouldn't be like "oh, USF no question" for the access bowl. They'd have to debate it, and NIU could be ranked by the end of the year

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(11-19-2015 12:43 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Toledo looks very much trapped in the MAC West. They could go 11-1 and not make the conference championship game.

They are "trapped" by their only loss being in-division ... which isn't a trap so much, since they are in a hole they helped dig themselves.

Quote: The reality is most likely the Navy/Houston game winner is going to end up with the automatic bid.

Temple takes out Memphis and they'll be on track to be a 2 loss representative as a conference winner.

Or that could be phrased, "the reality is that its most likely that the AAC CCG winner will end up with the automatic bid" and let that cover all three scenarios ... Navy beats Houston and wins the CCG, Houston beats Navy and wins the CCG, either one beats the other one loses to Temple in the CCG.

There are some scenarios where there is daylight for someone else, but they are unlikely precisely because they involve a team that has made more of a habit of losing ending up making and then winning the CCG.

And I'm thinking that Navy is now happy they decided to join the old Big East when the call went out to a select set of schools for applications, despite all of the turbulent water that has flown under the bridge since then.

(11-19-2015 01:36 AM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 12:22 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Which would mean the AAC would have no threat for the access bowl, even if it was South Florida.

NIU can still get the nod at 10-3 over 9-4 USF. I can at least say with confidence it wouldn't be like "oh, USF no question" for the access bowl. They'd have to debate it, and NIU could be ranked by the end of the year

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True, although a 9-4 USF team would have only one bad loss and wins over (possibly) 9-3 Temple and over a 12-1/11-2 Houston or Navy. It'd be a close call but NIU has losses to BC and CMU. Bowling Green and its quality wins/losses would have a better shot. If nothing else, they'd have an argument over USF because they dominated Maryland and USF lost to them.

(11-19-2015 01:36 AM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 12:22 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Which would mean the AAC would have no threat for the access bowl, even if it was South Florida.

NIU can still get the nod at 10-3 over 9-4 USF. I can at least say with confidence it wouldn't be like "oh, USF no question" for the access bowl. They'd have to debate it, and NIU could be ranked by the end of the year

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Could happen. But personally, I would give a slight edge to USF by virtue of a blowout win over a top 25 Temple and a potential win over a top 10-12 Houston/Navy. It would get very interesting though.

I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

(11-19-2015 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

Keep in mind NIU lost to #1 OSU by 7 and a BC team that was coming off a tough loss to FSU by 3. That BC team has regressed as the year has gone on and now looks like NIU's worst loss.

NIU always seems to get better as the year goes on...they have not lost a game in November since 2009.

(11-19-2015 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

That has always been the case even during the BCS days. Sure the best G5 team may not be a champion, but when playing in the conference that is how the system is setup for the champions. It mirrors the P5 conferences. Even when say 8-4 USC beats and 12-0 Oregon team, the champion goes to the Rose Bowl even though they may not be the best team in the PAC...they won the championship.

The Best G5 team can still get an at-large bid.

If the CFP was in place in 2011, Boise St. would have received an at-large bid being ranked #7 in the BCS poll while TCU would get the G5 auto bid for being the best G5 champ.

(11-19-2015 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

Totally agree. The G6 bowls are national bowls, not local bowls. They should be taking the best G5 team overall, not just in their conference. I can't believe they didn't include some kind of provision such as the conference champ had to be in the top 25 to qualify.

It is not fair to deny another team a well-earned opportunity at a big bowl due to some stupid technicality (not that college football has ever been fair). At least the playoff got that right - best 4, not best 4 conference champs. Makes for a much, much better playoff, and is more of a meritocracy.

(11-19-2015 11:38 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

Totally agree. The G6 bowls are national bowls, not local bowls. They should be taking the best G5 team overall, not just in their conference. I can't believe they didn't include some kind of provision such as the conference champ had to be in the top 25 to qualify.

It is not fair to deny another team a well-earned opportunity at a big bowl due to some stupid technicality (not that college football has ever been fair). At least the playoff got that right - best 4, not best 4 conference champs. Makes for a much, much better playoff, and is more of a meritocracy.

Best 4 are 95% of the time conference champs though. Don't be so hurt because BYU decided to go Indy and take themselves from the Access Bowl spot.
Call Holmoe to get BYU to join the MW or the AAC. But we know BYU won't because Utah is in a P5 conference.

(11-19-2015 11:59 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 11:38 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

Totally agree. The G6 bowls are national bowls, not local bowls. They should be taking the best G5 team overall, not just in their conference. I can't believe they didn't include some kind of provision such as the conference champ had to be in the top 25 to qualify.

It is not fair to deny another team a well-earned opportunity at a big bowl due to some stupid technicality (not that college football has ever been fair). At least the playoff got that right - best 4, not best 4 conference champs. Makes for a much, much better playoff, and is more of a meritocracy.

Best 4 are 95% of the time conference champs though. Don't be so hurt because BYU decided to go Indy and take themselves from the Access Bowl spot.
Call Holmoe to get BYU to join the MW or the AAC. But we know BYU won't because Utah is in a P5 conference.

The reason you lose the argument is because if the best G5 is a conference champion, people will still choose them.

In other words, nothing is lost by having it be the best G5 team. Nine years out of ten, the best G5 will be a conf champ ... and that team will be chosen.


There is a loss, potentially, by only allowing conference champions. Like this year, when Toledo could be the best team, but unfairly eliminated.

(11-19-2015 10:59 AM)BobL Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

Keep in mind NIU lost to #1 OSU by 7 and a BC team that was coming off a tough loss to FSU by 3. That BC team has regressed as the year has gone on and now looks like NIU's worst loss.

NIU always seems to get better as the year goes on...they have not lost a game in November since 2009.

Sure. I'm not saying NIU is a bad team.

I just feel they have a much lower chance of getting the G5 spot than Toledo (which may still be a very low chance, don't get me wrong).


It would require Temple having 3 losses and then beating Navy or Houston, on the road, in the AAC CCG. And then probably getting a little help from the CUSA, not having WKU be the champion.

(11-19-2015 12:57 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 10:59 AM)BobL Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

Keep in mind NIU lost to #1 OSU by 7 and a BC team that was coming off a tough loss to FSU by 3. That BC team has regressed as the year has gone on and now looks like NIU's worst loss.

NIU always seems to get better as the year goes on...they have not lost a game in November since 2009.

Sure. I'm not saying NIU is a bad team.

I just feel they have a much lower chance of getting the G5 spot than Toledo (which may still be a very low chance, don't get me wrong).


It would require Temple having 3 losses and then beating Navy or Houston, on the road, in the AAC CCG. And then probably getting a little help from the CUSA, not having WKU be the champion.

Or USF winning the AAC at 4 losses

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If you are G5 and you can't win your conference, you don't deserve to go to NY6. Sorry.

(11-19-2015 01:46 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If you are G5 and you can't win your conference, you don't deserve to go to NY6. Sorry.

Agreed 100%

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(11-19-2015 12:57 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 10:59 AM)BobL Wrote:  

(11-19-2015 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I'm starting to think it was a very stupid rule by the G5 to limit their pool to be conference champions.

What if NIU started the season off 0-4, losing every non-conf game??

They're really saying that a 8-5 NIU team, that just happened to beat Toledo, but lost at Central Michigan, is a better and more deserving team than 11-1 Toledo (with wins over Iowa St and Arkansas)?

It's very difficult to go undefeated. Losing one game is not all that big of a deal, clearly. Toledo just happened to pick the perfectly wrong team to lose to. And it has, perhaps unfairly, cost them everything.

Keep in mind NIU lost to #1 OSU by 7 and a BC team that was coming off a tough loss to FSU by 3. That BC team has regressed as the year has gone on and now looks like NIU's worst loss.

NIU always seems to get better as the year goes on...they have not lost a game in November since 2009.

Sure. I'm not saying NIU is a bad team.

I just feel they have a much lower chance of getting the G5 spot than Toledo (which may still be a very low chance, don't get me wrong).

Of course.

Highest rated G5 to NY6 bowl is best scenario. Winning the CCG is nice but should not be required.