Guy from the Wharton School of Business just on CNBC. It's amazing to think about.

But, but Obama is the devil.

The Dow isn't the economy...

Who said anything about the economy?

(11-03-2015 12:18 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  Who said anything about the economy?

al·lude
əˈlo͞od/Submit
verb
suggest or call attention to indirectly; hint at.
"she had a way of alluding to Jean but never saying her name"
synonyms: refer to, touch on, suggest, hint at, imply, mention (in passing), make an allusion to; formaladvert to
"the prosecutor alluded to Dixon's past"
mention without discussing at length.
"we will allude briefly to the main points"
(of an artist or a work of art) recall (an earlier work or style) in such a way as to suggest a relationship with it.
"the photographs allude to Italian Baroque painting"


"But, but Obama is the devil."

methinks doth protest too much

(11-03-2015 12:39 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  methinks doth protest too much

There is no need to drag Shakespeare into this.

I think we go bear in 2016.

(11-03-2015 01:13 PM)fsquid Wrote:  I think we go bear in 2016.

Certainly if you buy into the head and-shoulders chart.

(11-03-2015 12:11 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Guy from the Wharton School of Business just on CNBC. It's amazing to think about.

High inflation.

Zero percent interest driving all money out of personal savings into somewhere -- anywhere -- where it can actually have a shot of beating inflation.

What's so amazing?

(11-03-2015 12:12 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  But, but Obama is the devil.

I thought he was for Main Street, not Wall Street?

(11-03-2015 12:11 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Guy from the Wharton School of Business just on CNBC. It's amazing to think about.

Obama or not...

The market is overvalued.

What is happening is that the US, being the best run economy, is attracting excess capitol from outside the US.

And the equity markets are attracting more capitol than they should, as interest rate products don't provide much of a return.

Combine that with the threat of deflation, and it looks like the danger of an oversold market is going to get ugly.

Eventually, gravity will work its magic and, barring some economic expansion that is unlikely to occur, the real value of stocks will revert to its PE mean.

---

So what to do about it? I have no idea.

---

Invest in Gold/Commodities? Nope. They'll probably fall more than equities in a bubble situation and they're more volatile.

Overseas investments? Probably not the answer. Certainly there are going to be regional differences...but on the whole....Not the answer.

Real Estate? Maybe, but those can be illiquid and much of that is overpriced anyway.

----

Are we looking at a crash? Not necessarily, but I'd be more comfortable with the Dow in the 13,500-15,000 range. At least that's my, non-expert view.

Market will lose a lot when rates are raised. Why? Because the market is stupid sometimes. BTW, some folks have been claiming DOW 20000 for years so nothing new there.

Well if the Dow goes to 20,000, it shows how stupid the Democrats are in not privatizing Social security for individuals that want it. They could easily have made a lot more money with that increase . But We all know the Government loves to take a lot of money from Social security to fund welfare and other instant gratification things instead.

(11-03-2015 02:37 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 12:11 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Guy from the Wharton School of Business just on CNBC. It's amazing to think about.

Obama or not...

The market is overvalued.

What is happening is that the US, being the best run economy, is attracting excess capitol from outside the US.

And the equity markets are attracting more capitol than they should, as interest rate products don't provide much of a return.

Combine that with the threat of deflation, and it looks like the danger of an oversold market is going to get ugly.

Eventually, gravity will work its magic and, barring some economic expansion that is unlikely to occur, the real value of stocks will revert to its PE mean.

---

So what to do about it? I have no idea.

---

Invest in Gold/Commodities? Nope. They'll probably fall more than equities in a bubble situation and they're more volatile.

Overseas investments? Probably not the answer. Certainly there are going to be regional differences...but on the whole....Not the answer.

Real Estate? Maybe, but those can be illiquid and much of that is overpriced anyway.

----

Are we looking at a crash? Not necessarily, but I'd be more comfortable with the Dow in the 13,500-15,000 range. At least that's my, non-expert view.

+1.

Can't believe I'm agree with Tom!!

How about 21,650 in 2017.

bwahahahahhaahahahahahahahaha

To me this still looks like over inflated garbage. Luckily for Uncle Sam fracking is now so huge it just may bail his sorry *** out.

(07-14-2017 02:56 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  To me this still looks like over inflated garbage. Luckily for Uncle Sam fracking is now so huge it just may bail his sorry *** out.

Could be. But if you weren't in, you missed a hell of a run.

It's reason/example #46329 why Market timing, or trying to guess Bulls and Bears, highs and lows, whatever is not a good idea IF you're a long term investor.

Yes, you got hammered in '08, and it certainly made a LOT of people plenty gun shy and with good reason. But, if you pulled out then and parked it all on the sideline?

Ruh roh.

(07-14-2017 03:08 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(07-14-2017 02:56 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  To me this still looks like over inflated garbage. Luckily for Uncle Sam fracking is now so huge it just may bail his sorry *** out.

Could be. But if you weren't in, you missed a hell of a run.

It's reason/example #46329 why Market timing, or trying to guess Bulls and Bears, highs and lows, whatever is not a good idea IF you're a long term investor.

Yes, you got hammered in '08, and it certainly made a LOT of people plenty gun shy and with good reason. But, if you pulled out then and parked it all on the sideline?

Ruh roh.

I'll just say it IS like I have too many times.....that 401k/roth/wtfe has to man(ure)euver somehow ;O

like tulips it is.....

just wait 'til the boomers die......you'll remember me then.....