(09-28-2015 04:22 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 07:13 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 04:40 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Dayton I don't believe adds much to the Big East. Its not like they will be building an NBA caliber arena anytime soon.

I would make a play for UConn who could then go independent in football and sign a BYU type deal with ESPN.

BYU's schedule as an Independent is not that much different than an AAC schedule. Connecticut could play BYU and also UMass late in November every year alleviating scheduling pressure.

If ESPN were the least bit interested in UConn football, it would be at a price at least as low as their current share from the AAC, and probably lower. UConn has nowhere near BYU's stature when it comes to football. They would have a much harder time finding FBS opponents, and there is no market for games against schools like UMass and Army.

BE contract > AAC contract. If UConn was in the BE, their fb team could give the rights to their games to ESPN/FOX/NBC and still come out on top from a media payout perspective. That said, TV payouts are only one piece of the equation.

UConn could not garner enough as a football Independent. They are stuck in the AAC conference.

(09-28-2015 04:22 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  BE contract > AAC contract.

Though not bowl game tie-ins would suck ... and people airily dismissing the difficulties scheduling late season home games as an independent in an era with so few independents don't actually make the issue go away. UConn does not have the clout that Notre Dame has to get late home games, and even Notre Dame found it in their interest to negotiate a scheduling agreement with a P5 conference to get the flexibility they needed in late season scheduling.

(09-28-2015 04:43 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 04:22 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 07:13 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 04:40 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Dayton I don't believe adds much to the Big East. Its not like they will be building an NBA caliber arena anytime soon.

I would make a play for UConn who could then go independent in football and sign a BYU type deal with ESPN.

BYU's schedule as an Independent is not that much different than an AAC schedule. Connecticut could play BYU and also UMass late in November every year alleviating scheduling pressure.

If ESPN were the least bit interested in UConn football, it would be at a price at least as low as their current share from the AAC, and probably lower. UConn has nowhere near BYU's stature when it comes to football. They would have a much harder time finding FBS opponents, and there is no market for games against schools like UMass and Army.

BE contract > AAC contract. If UConn was in the BE, their fb team could give the rights to their games to ESPN/FOX/NBC and still come out on top from a media payout perspective. That said, TV payouts are only one piece of the equation.

UConn could not garner enough as a football Independent. They are stuck in the AAC conference.

And Why do folks seem to think the AAC is a bad thing ? They, even as Big East ,were always competitive in Football. And The Former Big East Football schools mostly performed Way over and above the average in Basketball winning NCAA Championships along the Way.

(09-28-2015 04:43 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 04:22 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 07:13 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 04:40 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Dayton I don't believe adds much to the Big East. Its not like they will be building an NBA caliber arena anytime soon.

I would make a play for UConn who could then go independent in football and sign a BYU type deal with ESPN.

BYU's schedule as an Independent is not that much different than an AAC schedule. Connecticut could play BYU and also UMass late in November every year alleviating scheduling pressure.

If ESPN were the least bit interested in UConn football, it would be at a price at least as low as their current share from the AAC, and probably lower. UConn has nowhere near BYU's stature when it comes to football. They would have a much harder time finding FBS opponents, and there is no market for games against schools like UMass and Army.

BE contract > AAC contract. If UConn was in the BE, their fb team could give the rights to their games to ESPN/FOX/NBC and still come out on top from a media payout perspective. That said, TV payouts are only one piece of the equation.

UConn could not garner enough as a football Independent. They are stuck in the AAC conference.

Would not call it stuck other that the TV pay is not P5, but the exposure is certainly P5. 13 games on ESPN, Ohio State and GTown on CBS. All of their games vs. NCAA caliper AAC teams, Cincy, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Temple are on ESPN, the rest CBS Sports Net. (not including ESPN3)

Until the buy outs are completely handed out, UCONN makes more in AAC. About the time those payouts end, TV will be reworked. I doubt it ever makes sense for them to consider the BE.

If UConn could get their football tied into the service academies CBS contract then it could be doable. They would get Army, Navy & Air Force on their schedule & home games on the CBSSN & possibly keep their P5 consideration with the B1G. Add in games with Rutgers, Maryland & maybe Penn St & that's half the schedule. BYU would be another.

The problem is they would still lose the access $ & bowl tie ins. Also, would CBS & the service academies want it?

(09-28-2015 05:12 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 04:22 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  BE contract > AAC contract.

Though not bowl game tie-ins would suck ... and people airily dismissing the difficulties scheduling late season home games as an independent in an era with so few independents don't actually make the issue go away. UConn does not have the clout that Notre Dame has to get late home games, and even Notre Dame found it in their interest to negotiate a scheduling agreement with a P5 conference to get the flexibility they needed in late season scheduling.

You edited out the following from the original post:
"That said, TV payouts are only one piece of the equation."

(09-28-2015 08:05 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  If UConn could get their football tied into the service academies CBS contract then it could be doable. They would get Army, Navy & Air Force on their schedule & home games on the CBSSN & possibly keep their P5 consideration with the B1G. Add in games with Rutgers, Maryland & maybe Penn St & that's half the schedule. BYU would be another.

The problem is they would still lose the access $ & bowl tie ins. Also, would CBS & the service academies want it?

Navy plays 8 games in The American and practically-permanent OOC rivalries against Notre Dame, Army, and Air Force. That leaves them only one game that they get to schedule, which they currently use to open the season at home against an FCS opponent. I don't see how or why they would schedule an independent UConn, unless they went independent with them.

Air Force has similarly little room for scheduling: 8 conference games, then Army and Navy, leaving them room for two other opponents, which they usually use for one FCS opponent and one power-conference opponent. They wouldn't go independent, because there's no logical place to park their Olympic sports (unlike Army and Navy in the Patriot League). Join Denver in The Summit League? The MWC provides better competition and more regional opponents.

Army could schedule UConn, but that's not much of a package.

IMO the only way UCONN ever considers something so drastic is if the Big 12 were to take the combo of Cincinnati and Memphis. With those two gone, the strength of the AAC MBB would take a serious hit. Even then it's a serious stretch, but I'll add a few things:

Something that UCONN isn't currently benefiting from in the AAC (which they had in the old Big East) is Tier 3 rights. UCONN was making $1.5 - 2 million per year for just its WBB.

In terms of scheduling an independent football schedule, UCONN could get a yearly game with BYU, Army, and UMass. Play those games near the end of the season. Also add in a Northeastern FCS opponent. If the Big Ten continues to allow UCONN to count as a P5 opponent, then you could see 2-3 Big Ten opponents per year - perhaps use hockey, MBB, and WBB scheduling agreements in order to increase that number. That's at least half the schedule right there.

(09-28-2015 08:10 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 05:12 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 04:22 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  BE contract > AAC contract.

Though not bowl game tie-ins would suck ... and people airily dismissing the difficulties scheduling late season home games as an independent in an era with so few independents don't actually make the issue go away. UConn does not have the clout that Notre Dame has to get late home games, and even Notre Dame found it in their interest to negotiate a scheduling agreement with a P5 conference to get the flexibility they needed in late season scheduling.

You edited out the following from the original post:
"That said, TV payouts are only one piece of the equation."

The Orange were worth $3 million and then they were worth $20 million, I hope UConn can find the same thing. We all know the Cuse football product was behind it.

I still think the Big East made a mistake taking Butler over Dayton.

Institutionally, Dayton is a much bigger and better school, and its addition would have kept the all-Catholic character of the conference. Also, Butler gets lost in the Indy sports scene while Dayton is the only game in town. Even without Big East recruiting, Dayton has outperformed Butler over the last two years.

I'm basically in agreement with the video commentary from the OP - SLU and Dayton are probably the top options if the Big East were to expand today, with Davidson, Richmond and VCU being the alternatives. I would consider SLU to be a lock in any future expansion because they hit all of the metrics that have mattered the most in conference realignment: TV market, academic profile, institutional fit, etc. It would be better if they were on more of an upswing on-the-court, but the Big East is in the position where it's looking for long-term marriages, so the off-the-court metrics matter much more. Dayton has performed better on-the-court and has one of theb best fan bases in college basketball, but their location being so close to Xavier is going to be a major negative (even though Dayton is technically a separate TV market from Cincinnati). There's also the issue of the Big East schools wanting balance between Eastern schools and Midwestern schools.

IMHO, Davidson is really on the upswing. They adjusted well to moving up to the A-10 last year, it's a legitimately elite academic institution with massive wealth, it's located in the Charlotte TV market, it opens up the state of North Carolina for recruiting and it's an Eastern-based school that would make Georgetown happy. (When it comes to the Big East expansion, Georgetown and Marquette are going to be the most important decision-makers.) It also doesn't hurt that Steph Curry is a walking billboard for that school right now for future recruits. (That's not to say that Davidson is competing with UNC and Duke for top players, but I feel that the school can get guys that can compete well in the Big East long-term.) The only negative that I see is how small the school is enrollment-wise, but I've always felt that sheer enrollment is an overrated factor by fans in conference realignment, particularly when dealing with a private school league like the Big East where its viewership generally comes from outside of its own alumni base. Dave Gavitt put together the Big East nearly 4 decades ago almost entirely based on TV interests, and that continues to this day.

Richmond has a lot of the attributes that Davidson has - the main differences are that Richmond is a larger school but in not-quite-as-good of a TV market and location. VCU has little chance of getting into the Big East with it being a public university, although it at least has the argument that it is really similar institutionally as a lot of Big East schools as a major urban university (similar to DePaul and St. John's except that it happens to be a public school). Wichita State has ZERO chance of getting into the Big East - there is absolutely no institutional fit there at all. (That is a pure fan-based wish that ignores all of the off-the-field/court factors that drive conference realignment. It would be akin to saying that Boise State ought to be getting an invite from the Pac-12 soon, which we know won't happen no matter how many wins the Broncos might have.)

(09-28-2015 09:44 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I still think the Big East made a mistake taking Butler over Dayton.

Institutionally, Dayton is a much bigger and better school, and its addition would have kept the all-Catholic character of the conference. Also, Butler gets lost in the Indy sports scene while Dayton is the only game in town. Even without Big East recruiting, Dayton has outperformed Butler over the last two years.

Dayton is definitely bigger, although I wouldn't call it better. (From what I've seen, it's more difficult to get into Butler than Dayton and actually many of the other Big East schools besides Georgetown and Villanova.) Also, being the only game in town in Dayton is irrelevant compared to being a secondary option in Indy. The entire basis of the Big East (whether in its original incarnation nearly 40 years ago or now) is that they are in large markets for TV purposes (even if they might face a lot of pro and college competition). Even its smallest market of Omaha (where Creighton is located) has heavy competition with the omnipresence of the Cornhuskers in that state.

Where Dayton has the best advantage is its fan base - it really is top notch even compare to the majority of P5 schools. Unfortunately for Dayton, I think that factor isn't nearly as important for conference realignment as TV market, location, etc. They're sort of like the basketball version of East Carolina football, where they get great support in the stands but the off-the-field/court metrics don't support them. (Granted, the main difference is that Dayton has a legit shot to get into its dream conference of the Big East, whereas ECU really has no realistic shot to get into the ACC or SEC.)

Regardless, Butler's two national title game appearances certainly was a monster boost to their national profile. Plus, they had plenty of success prior to that, as well, and they're in arguably the most basketball-crazy state in the country. I don't think you can really argue with choosing Butler - they're a private school in an excellent TV market and recruiting area with top-level NCAA Tournament success and located right in the middle of the Big East footprint.

(09-28-2015 09:44 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I'm basically in agreement with the video commentary from the OP - SLU and Dayton are probably the top options if the Big East were to expand today, with Davidson, Richmond and VCU being the alternatives. I would consider SLU to be a lock in any future expansion because they hit all of the metrics that have mattered the most in conference realignment: TV market, academic profile, institutional fit, etc. It would be better if they were on more of an upswing on-the-court, but the Big East is in the position where it's looking for long-term marriages, so the off-the-court metrics matter much more. Dayton has performed better on-the-court and has one of theb best fan bases in college basketball, but their location being so close to Xavier is going to be a major negative (even though Dayton is technically a separate TV market from Cincinnati). There's also the issue of the Big East schools wanting balance between Eastern schools and Midwestern schools.

IMHO, Davidson is really on the upswing. They adjusted well to moving up to the A-10 last year, it's a legitimately elite academic institution with massive wealth, it's located in the Charlotte TV market, it opens up the state of North Carolina for recruiting and it's an Eastern-based school that would make Georgetown happy. (When it comes to the Big East expansion, Georgetown and Marquette are going to be the most important decision-makers.) It also doesn't hurt that Steph Curry is a walking billboard for that school right now for future recruits. (That's not to say that Davidson is competing with UNC and Duke for top players, but I feel that the school can get guys that can compete well in the Big East long-term.) The only negative that I see is how small the school is enrollment-wise, but I've always felt that sheer enrollment is an overrated factor by fans in conference realignment, particularly when dealing with a private school league like the Big East where its viewership generally comes from outside of its own alumni base. Dave Gavitt put together the Big East nearly 4 decades ago almost entirely based on TV interests, and that continues to this day.

Richmond has a lot of the attributes that Davidson has - the main differences are that Richmond is a larger school but in not-quite-as-good of a TV market and location. VCU has little chance of getting into the Big East with it being a public university, although it at least has the argument that it is really similar institutionally as a lot of Big East schools as a major urban university (similar to DePaul and St. John's except that it happens to be a public school). Wichita State has ZERO chance of getting into the Big East - there is absolutely no institutional fit there at all. (That is a pure fan-based wish that ignores all of the off-the-field/court factors that drive conference realignment. It would be akin to saying that Boise State ought to be getting an invite from the Pac-12 soon, which we know won't happen no matter how many wins the Broncos might have.)

Good post, Frank. I had to check on Davidson's enrollment - it's 1770. The smallest in the Big East are Providence and Butler, each in the neighborhood of 4600.

On Davidson, they have terrific academics, but I wonder (not knowing) how much full academic profile comes into play. Davidson is a traditional liberal arts college, while all of the others are at least Master's-granting institutions. Conferences often share academic resources, and this is something we rarely here about. It may not matter at all in this case.

SLU seems like a no-brainer. They bring a major market, strong tradition, and very solid chops in other sports the Big East is beginning to excel in, namely soccer. Dayton is a great institution, and fits the profile perfectly. They pack UD Arena for every game. The television market will come into play in the not-too-distant future. If growth projections stay the same, it's anticipated that the federal government will consider Cincinnati-Dayton a single market (MSA) sometime between 2017 and 2020. UC fans are trumpeting this as an appealing aspect for the ACC and Big 12. It may hurt Dayton in their aspirations to get in to the Big East.

One other wildcard (very wild) I'll throw out there is Denver. They aren't a Catholic school, but fit the profile of the Big East in nearly every way. They're in Big East lacrosse, which is mostly a marriage of necessity. The university has a ton of money, a disproportionate amount of east coast students, and a large television market. Obviously, Denver isn't in the east, but they could (arguably) make a travel partner for Creighton. Denver and Omaha are between 7 and 8 hours apart, not a horrible stretch in these odd conference expansion days.

SLU has to IMO get back to being respectable before they have a chance to get in. Perception matters.

(09-28-2015 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  SLU has to IMO get back to being respectable before they have a chance to get in. Perception matters.

I think perception matters a little bit, but (a) it's a sliding scale depending upon the institution (as opposed to absolute NCAA Tournament results) and (b) university presidents look at the long-term institutional fit as opposed to the "What have you done for me lately?" short-term mentality of most sports fans. If you're delivering a major market and recruiting territory, then you're going to get more benefit of the doubt compared to a school in a smaller market. SLU merely has to be *competent* in basketball, which the school has generally shown to be able to do over a long period of time. Note that I didn't list schools like Boston University or Duquesne despite being great academic and TV market fits for the Big East because they haven't even met that *competence* level. I don't think it's fair at all to put SLU into a category with those types of schools.

I know that you don't want to believe it (because you seem to be the type that doesn't want to add anyone unless they're fresh off a Sweet Sixteen run and poised to make the Final Four IMMEDIATELY), but SLU is next on the Big East list. The only real debate is whether there is a #12 that will rise up to fit in with SLU.

(09-28-2015 10:39 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  SLU has to IMO get back to being respectable before they have a chance to get in. Perception matters.

I think perception matters a little bit, but (a) it's a sliding scale depending upon the institution (as opposed to absolute NCAA Tournament results) and (b) university presidents look at the long-term institutional fit as opposed to the "What have you done for me lately?" short-term mentality of most sports fans. If you're delivering a major market and recruiting territory, then you're going to get more benefit of the doubt compared to a school in a smaller market. SLU merely has to be *competent* in basketball, which the school has generally shown to be able to do over a long period of time. Note that I didn't list schools like Boston University or Duquesne despite being great academic and TV market fits for the Big East because they haven't even met that *competence* level. I don't think it's fair at all to put SLU into a category with those types of schools.

I know that you don't want to believe it (because you seem to be the type that doesn't want to add anyone unless they're fresh off a Sweet Sixteen run and poised to make the Final Four IMMEDIATELY), but SLU is next on the Big East list. The only real debate is whether there is a #12 that will rise up to fit in with SLU.

I don't say that SLU has to make sweet 16- but they can't be #298 like they were last year. That's no where near competent. They have to get back to where worst case, they're in the 150 range.

(09-28-2015 10:10 AM)geef Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 09:44 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I'm basically in agreement with the video commentary from the OP - SLU and Dayton are probably the top options if the Big East were to expand today, with Davidson, Richmond and VCU being the alternatives. I would consider SLU to be a lock in any future expansion because they hit all of the metrics that have mattered the most in conference realignment: TV market, academic profile, institutional fit, etc. It would be better if they were on more of an upswing on-the-court, but the Big East is in the position where it's looking for long-term marriages, so the off-the-court metrics matter much more. Dayton has performed better on-the-court and has one of theb best fan bases in college basketball, but their location being so close to Xavier is going to be a major negative (even though Dayton is technically a separate TV market from Cincinnati). There's also the issue of the Big East schools wanting balance between Eastern schools and Midwestern schools.

IMHO, Davidson is really on the upswing. They adjusted well to moving up to the A-10 last year, it's a legitimately elite academic institution with massive wealth, it's located in the Charlotte TV market, it opens up the state of North Carolina for recruiting and it's an Eastern-based school that would make Georgetown happy. (When it comes to the Big East expansion, Georgetown and Marquette are going to be the most important decision-makers.) It also doesn't hurt that Steph Curry is a walking billboard for that school right now for future recruits. (That's not to say that Davidson is competing with UNC and Duke for top players, but I feel that the school can get guys that can compete well in the Big East long-term.) The only negative that I see is how small the school is enrollment-wise, but I've always felt that sheer enrollment is an overrated factor by fans in conference realignment, particularly when dealing with a private school league like the Big East where its viewership generally comes from outside of its own alumni base. Dave Gavitt put together the Big East nearly 4 decades ago almost entirely based on TV interests, and that continues to this day.

Richmond has a lot of the attributes that Davidson has - the main differences are that Richmond is a larger school but in not-quite-as-good of a TV market and location. VCU has little chance of getting into the Big East with it being a public university, although it at least has the argument that it is really similar institutionally as a lot of Big East schools as a major urban university (similar to DePaul and St. John's except that it happens to be a public school). Wichita State has ZERO chance of getting into the Big East - there is absolutely no institutional fit there at all. (That is a pure fan-based wish that ignores all of the off-the-field/court factors that drive conference realignment. It would be akin to saying that Boise State ought to be getting an invite from the Pac-12 soon, which we know won't happen no matter how many wins the Broncos might have.)

Good post, Frank. I had to check on Davidson's enrollment - it's 1770. The smallest in the Big East are Providence and Butler, each in the neighborhood of 4600.

On Davidson, they have terrific academics, but I wonder (not knowing) how much full academic profile comes into play. Davidson is a traditional liberal arts college, while all of the others are at least Master's-granting institutions. Conferences often share academic resources, and this is something we rarely here about. It may not matter at all in this case.

SLU seems like a no-brainer. They bring a major market, strong tradition, and very solid chops in other sports the Big East is beginning to excel in, namely soccer. Dayton is a great institution, and fits the profile perfectly. They pack UD Arena for every game. The television market will come into play in the not-too-distant future. If growth projections stay the same, it's anticipated that the federal government will consider Cincinnati-Dayton a single market (MSA) sometime between 2017 and 2020. UC fans are trumpeting this as an appealing aspect for the ACC and Big 12. It may hurt Dayton in their aspirations to get in to the Big East.

One other wildcard (very wild) I'll throw out there is Denver. They aren't a Catholic school, but fit the profile of the Big East in nearly every way. They're in Big East lacrosse, which is mostly a marriage of necessity. The university has a ton of money, a disproportionate amount of east coast students, and a large television market. Obviously, Denver isn't in the east, but they could (arguably) make a travel partner for Creighton. Denver and Omaha are between 7 and 8 hours apart, not a horrible stretch in these odd conference expansion days.

I like Denver as a long-term proposition for the Big East, but as I noted about some other schools in the last post, they at least need to get to basketball *competence*. There are other schools that hit all of the off-the-court metrics for the Big East, such as Duquesne and Boston University, but they have been such poor basketball performers for such a long time that they aren't being considered. SLU has at least shown basketball competence for a long period of time (and Dayton, Richmond and Davidson have shown quite a bit of on-the-court success). So, Denver definitely has some great attributes, but they still need at least a minimum level of on-the-court competence. Denver might be able to sell itself better to the WCC right now, which would be a very good upgrade.

my point is you need to be at a level of competence when you are added to the league.

Like I've said, I think the Big East really messed up if they had wanted SLU. If SLU had been added from the onset- they would have been able to recruit better players and 2015 wouldn't have been anywhere near as bad- and this year they would have been even better. But they didn't.

And you say, well that would have made 11. Yes. I think a big problem with the Big East has been that some of the C7 schools really pushed to stay at 10 and have the round robin. They like getting the Georgetown/Nova/St John's games guaranteed every year. I think that kind of thinking has hurt the Big East.

From a WSU perspective, the Big East is not a good fit outside of being basketball first. The only absolute slam dunk in conference realignment for us is the AAC opposite of Navy football. We are also a baseball school which jives very well with ECU, Houston, Tulane, etc and our #1 Rival is Tulsa. IMO, it will take another final four run this year to get it done as this may be the best basketball team in the history of Wichita State. Wish us luck!