(08-17-2015 01:48 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I'd like to add, those carving up the ACC clearly don't understand the nucleus of the ACC. The following teams don't want to go anywhere without the teams listed coming with them, in the order listed. In yes, not all the love is reciprocal, and that is intentional:

UNC: Duke, UVA, WF, GT, NCST (Though no self-respecting UNC fan would tell you NC State, they know it is as inevitable as The Textile Bowl being played every year is to Clemson fans)

Duke: UNC, UVA, GT, NCST, WF

UVA: UNC, Duke, VT, GT

GT: Clemson, Duke, UNC, FSU ... I would have added UVA and VT but that's realllllllllly borderline

FSU: Clemson, GT

Clemson: FSU, GT, NCST ... and WF is realllllly borderline. Clemson fans have a soft spot for Wake.

VT: UVA, (at least two NC schools, which ones don't matter), GT ... and Clemson and FSU are borderline.

And those are the only ones people are talking about parsing out. I'd say the only school that doesn't carry baggage like this is Louisville, which is still busy walking around going "MAN I'M SO GLAD WE'RE HERE AND NOT IN THE AAC BROHUG". Also nobody outside of Louisville fans likes Petrino or Grantham. NOBODY.

Frankly, while I don't think it will ever happen, I think NC State and Va Tech to the SEC could be a good thing for the ACC if done properly. And by properly, I mean a planned move that gets something important for the ACC in return.

I would be in favor of a deal in which those schools move to the SEC, with the ACC waiving their exit fees, the SEC waiving entrance fees, and ESPN keeping the per team payouts at least equal to the status quo. In exchange, the ACC becomes a full partner in the SEC Network. That would bring the ACC to a much more manageable 12 teams, and the SEC to 16.

The smaller size could also facilitate bringing Texas in with a Notre Dame type deal without seriously hurting hoops scheduling. Picture this:

Make just one change in division alignments. Move Miami to the Atlantic and Syracuse to the Coastal. Now you can play an 8 game league schedule with no permanent rivals, so you play every OOD school home and home every four years. ND plays 3 Coastal teams one year and two Atlantic. Texas plays 3 Atlantic and 2 Coastal. Next year, they switch. Every year, 10 of the 12 full members plays one or the other.

With UNC-State and UVa-Va Tech added, there are now six annual rivalry games between the ACC and SEC East. Atlantic division schools get a beefed up SOS, improving their chances in the CFP. Coastal division schools get an improved shot at playing in a CCG.

The key to all this is the network. Full partners in exchange for two schools. Everybody wins.

(08-17-2015 12:14 AM)CintiFan Wrote:  

(08-16-2015 10:22 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The Big Ten had its chance and got Maryland. Despite all the insiders proclamations of the end of The ACC, the best Delaney could do was Maryland. No UVa, no GaTech no Duke. Again if any of these schools would have wanted out of The ACC they wouldn't have signed The GOR.

The wait no if there, is a wait is for The GOR to expire and The SEC to make its pitch, if any, for ACC programs. With that being said, no one here knows what the next decade holds.

That being said I understand why threads like this are started by the newbies. Louisville fans started plenty of these over the last decade trying to stir the water for anything to get us out of CUSA into The Big East and then reluctantly out of The Big East in The ACC. Expansion is the only way to move up the food chain.

The best advice that can be offered is build your program, build your facilities and build your fan base to be ready. And by all means enjoy the games...
CJ

I wouldn't write off the B1G's chances so quickly.

Conference realignment decisions are huge ones for University Presidents and are made once every 30-50 years for the biggest schools. I think when the realignment discussions began, the ACC may have had a clue that FSU was unhappy and might want to look around, but I think Maryland's decision to leave shocked them. I think it made them realize that the ACC could get picked apart too.

UVA and UNC certainly talked to the B1G back then, as did GTech, but in the end i think the University Presidents and Trustees just didn't want to make a decision that quickly. They are academic types who want to study their options and consider all ramifications before making a decision of that importance. So the decision was essentially not to decide and instead sign a GOR to preserve the status quo until the mid 2020's.

You can bet that UVA and UNC will be much more prepared when realignment begins again. I would assume they have been doing their own analyses about their options, both to preserve the ACC and if necessary to move to another conference. And that analysis will include the pro's and con's of moving to the B1G. Depending on how they see the move, the B1G is still a realistic option.

I agree that if UVA and UNC move to the B1G, Duke and GTech will be invited too. Duke is just too strong as an academic institution to leave out. They and Northwestern would be twins. GTech is one of the best engineering schools in the country and it is located in one of the best recruiting areas of the country. Lots of B1G alumni are in the Atlanta area too. So GTech is a no-brainer as well.

There is no question to me that both the SEC and B1G would love to add UVA and UNC as a pair. They are the only two southeastern states not occupied by the SEC, and their academics match the B1G profile.

I have a hard time seeing UNC going anywhere without Duke, which to me rules out the SEC for UNC. As you also suggest, the B1G could include Duke and GT and go to 18 schools. Expanding into Georgia would be great territory for the B1G. 18 is really pushing the boundaries of feasible conference size, though.

I'm certain that the SEC would love to have VT. I believe that VT was the SEC's hoped for 14th school to join with A&M, but VT did not waver from its commitment to UVA and the ACC. The question would then be who to bring with VT. If the B1G had UNC and Duke, I have a hard time seeing them go for NC St., but you never know. At that point, they may prefer to double down in Florida (with FSU) or Texas.

This is all going to depend on how the ACC's next TV deal shakes out. The ACC's biggest problem is that its current TV deal with ESPN is below market and that the deal with ESPN and sublicense deal with Raycom are too long. However, when these deals do come open for negotiation, to survive, the ACC's new deal(s) will have to be in the ballpark with what other conferences are making. Otherwise, those who have other options may have no choice but to explore them.

Conference size becomes less of a concern if CCG qualification autonomy is granted and the regular season is lengthened to thirteen games, though.

And given who may become available in the next decade or so, I'm confident both of the above will come to be so that the conferences can (and will) get bigger.

If you're in the SEC, and the following are all willing and interested in joining your conference in a decade, how do you sort through that and how big do you get?

Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Duke
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Florida State

Do you make one side of the map a priority and force yourself to decline certain schools, no matter the name recognition, for the sake of some other directive or ambition?

I think for the big 10 or SEC to crack open the VA/NC ACC school's would take the following invites

Big 10: UVa, Vtech, UNC, Duke

SEC: UVa, Vtech, UNC, Duke, NC state

it could happen if leagues expand enough. I think the SEC could jump to 24 and take 10 acc school's. Have 3 divisions of 8, sec-east, central and west. Let each division act as league with a 2 game playoff for football.

(08-17-2015 03:02 PM)bluesox Wrote:  Big 10: UVa, Vtech, UNC, Duke

I'm not sure how the Hokies would swallow handing the SEC, for free, Clemson, FSU, GT, Miami, NCST, and Wake.

(08-17-2015 01:54 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Conference size becomes less of a concern if CCG qualification autonomy is granted and the regular season is lengthened to thirteen games, though.

And given who may become available in the next decade or so, I'm confident both of the above will come to be so that the conferences can (and will) get bigger.

If you're in the SEC, and the following are all willing and interested in joining your conference in a decade, how do you sort through that and how big do you get?

Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Duke
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Florida State

Do you make one side of the map a priority and force yourself to decline certain schools, no matter the name recognition, for the sake of some other directive or ambition?

Pretty easy.

If those are all up for grabs you take UNC, Duke, VT and UVA and declare expansion done with.

For the price of only expanding by 4, you get 3 AAU schools, two bluest of the blue blood basketball schools and a good FB school. And by the way, you just added nearly 20 million more new people to your television footprint (otherwise known as "another Florida") and are now in every major traditional southern market and the dominant force in the southern US.

And with deregulation of CCG, conference size isn't much of an issue if you are guaranteed to play your rivals every year and then rotate quicker through everyone else.

Nobody else comes close to bringing that much new value to the SEC.

So NC/VA are most definitely prizes worth waiting for.

(08-15-2015 12:10 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Why would the SEC want NC-State? I could see them wanting UNC for basketball to boost that sport. But NC-State? (....looking around, confused....) Why?

As said before, I think any team in just about any team in the ACC would want to go... and any team that wasn't dominating their conference consistently would definitely want to go.

So I guess the question instead is: Would the SEC take [team] if they wanted another one?

NC-State: No. UNC? Probably not (unless they wanted to gear toward BBall). FSU? Yeah. Clemson? Yeah.

Raleigh; that's why I would guess. Fast growing city in NC.

(08-17-2015 03:02 PM)bluesox Wrote:  I think for the big 10 or SEC to crack open the VA/NC ACC school's would take the following invites

Big 10: UVa, Vtech, UNC, Duke

SEC: UVa, Vtech, UNC, Duke, NC state

it could happen if leagues expand enough. I think the SEC could jump to 24 and take 10 acc school's. Have 3 divisions of 8, sec-east, central and west. Let each division act as league with a 2 game playoff for football.

I believe the Big Ten and SEC are heading to the larger conference model that includes smaller divisions (4 or 5 teams per division). Divisions races will wisely focus on regionality and rivalries, but also allow more frequent cross-division competition within the conference because schools will have fewer annually-locked opponents. It's also a great structure for Olympic sports.

But, 24 is too many. SEC could get a similar result by taking 2 to 6 schools (ie, 4 divisions of 4 or 5 or 3 divisions of 6) - no reason to go to 24 teams. The Big Ten will also take 4 to 6 schools to get to 18 or 20.

We won't see the full plan unfold completely for several years and the ACC and PAC could be interim beneficiaries if the Big 12 dissolves.

The ACC is gradually becoming less Tobacco road but those rivers run deep and NCSU, Wake, Duke, and UNC are still very much tied to each other. The additions of ND, Cuse, Pitt, BC and the less NC-centric nature of the conference will likely change that dynamic over time but not yet. NCSU isn't going anywhere unless all hell breaks.

NCSU and VT wouldn't be the decision makers. They would only go if UVA and UNC were going somewhere.

(08-14-2015 01:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 08:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  The VT president spoke negatively of joining the SEC back when all the talk of FSU/Clemson leaving was circulating. As long and hard as they worked to get in the ACC, I don't think they would be in a hurry to leave.

Haven't heard anything out of NCSU. They might be really tied to UNC or they might be willing to take a leap.

And yet they met with us in 2010 at the Greenbriar to discuss just that.

That's why negotiations on expansion are always so secret. It gives the parties plausible deniability.

(08-18-2015 12:40 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 01:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 08:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  The VT president spoke negatively of joining the SEC back when all the talk of FSU/Clemson leaving was circulating. As long and hard as they worked to get in the ACC, I don't think they would be in a hurry to leave.

Haven't heard anything out of NCSU. They might be really tied to UNC or they might be willing to take a leap.

And yet they met with us in 2010 at the Greenbriar to discuss just that.

That's why negotiations on expansion are always so secret. It gives the parties plausible deniability.

Or to put it another way Wilkie, nobody with a wandering eye wants their flirtations or flings to become public. That's why they always pick a hotel out of state.

(08-18-2015 12:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-18-2015 12:40 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 01:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 08:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  The VT president spoke negatively of joining the SEC back when all the talk of FSU/Clemson leaving was circulating. As long and hard as they worked to get in the ACC, I don't think they would be in a hurry to leave.

Haven't heard anything out of NCSU. They might be really tied to UNC or they might be willing to take a leap.

And yet they met with us in 2010 at the Greenbriar to discuss just that.

That's why negotiations on expansion are always so secret. It gives the parties plausible deniability.

Or to put it another way Wilkie, nobody with a wandering eye wants their flirtations or flings to become public. That's why they always pick a hotel out of state.

Precisely

(08-18-2015 12:08 PM)FrancisDrake Wrote:  The ACC is gradually becoming less Tobacco road but those rivers run deep and NCSU, Wake, Duke, and UNC are still very much tied to each other. The additions of ND, Cuse, Pitt, BC and the less NC-centric nature of the conference will likely change that dynamic over time but not yet. NCSU isn't going anywhere unless all hell breaks.

NCSU and VT wouldn't be the decision makers. They would only go if UVA and UNC were going somewhere.

I just don't see either the SEC or B1G taking two teams from the same state unless it's UNC/Duke. UVA and VT have only been in the same conference 10 years, so there's very little ACC history. UNC and NC State have been together forever, but they are unique. In South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, the top two teams are split between the SEC and ACC but still play against each other as OOC rivals and are doing just fine in different conferences. There's no reason to believe UVA/VT and UNC/NC St. can't do the same.

Realignment is being driven by media considerations and it would be incredibly dumb for the B1G or SEC to take both UVA and VT or UNC and NC State when the better media solution is to split them. You can bet ESPN and Fox will be doing more than just whispering in the B1G and SEC's ears about what the right move is.

All of that assumes, of course, that the ACC gets picked apart. I agree the Virginia/North Carolina core want to stay together, but we'll see what pressure conference realignment brings to move.

Just where would the SEC or B1G Championships be played in multiple sports? Lets move them all around every "x" years to occasionally make every "grouping" happy. How many years between rotation?

(08-17-2015 01:33 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(08-17-2015 12:14 AM)CintiFan Wrote:  

(08-16-2015 10:22 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The Big Ten had its chance and got Maryland. Despite all the insiders proclamations of the end of The ACC, the best Delaney could do was Maryland. No UVa, no GaTech no Duke. Again if any of these schools would have wanted out of The ACC they wouldn't have signed The GOR.

The wait no if there, is a wait is for The GOR to expire and The SEC to make its pitch, if any, for ACC programs. With that being said, no one here knows what the next decade holds.

That being said I understand why threads like this are started by the newbies. Louisville fans started plenty of these over the last decade trying to stir the water for anything to get us out of CUSA into The Big East and then reluctantly out of The Big East in The ACC. Expansion is the only way to move up the food chain.

The best advice that can be offered is build your program, build your facilities and build your fan base to be ready. And by all means enjoy the games...
CJ

I wouldn't write off the B1G's chances so quickly.

Conference realignment decisions are huge ones for University Presidents and are made once every 30-50 years for the biggest schools. I think when the realignment discussions began, the ACC may have had a clue that FSU was unhappy and might want to look around, but I think Maryland's decision to leave shocked them. I think it made them realize that the ACC could get picked apart too.

UVA and UNC certainly talked to the B1G back then, as did GTech, but in the end i think the University Presidents and Trustees just didn't want to make a decision that quickly. They are academic types who want to study their options and consider all ramifications before making a decision of that importance. So the decision was essentially not to decide and instead sign a GOR to preserve the status quo until the mid 2020's.

You can bet that UVA and UNC will be much more prepared when realignment begins again. I would assume they have been doing their own analyses about their options, both to preserve the ACC and if necessary to move to another conference. And that analysis will include the pro's and con's of moving to the B1G. Depending on how they see the move, the B1G is still a realistic option.

I agree that if UVA and UNC move to the B1G, Duke and GTech will be invited too. Duke is just too strong as an academic institution to leave out. They and Northwestern would be twins. GTech is one of the best engineering schools in the country and it is located in one of the best recruiting areas of the country. Lots of B1G alumni are in the Atlanta area too. So GTech is a no-brainer as well.

There is no question to me that both the SEC and B1G would love to add UVA and UNC as a pair. They are the only two southeastern states not occupied by the SEC, and their academics match the B1G profile.

A problem with this is that UVA and UNC and Duke and Georgia Tech do not actually match the Big Ten's academic profile. All four would be in the far bottom half of enrollment in the Big Ten if they joined, and all four would look at the Big Ten and view Northwestern and maybe to some extent Michigan and as a stretch Wisconsin as their only competitors for undergraduates if cost for the applicant and other non-academic considerations are set aside (e.g., someone offered full ride scholarships to Michigan State and UVA or GT might go to Michigan State to remain closer to their family, but most people faced with that choice would pick UVA or GT). I'm sure the Big Ten or the SEC would love to have all four (maybe not Georgia Tech for the SEC), but why would any of the four bother? They would give up playing against a bunch of peer and/or nearby universities in BC, Syracuse, Miami, Pitt, VT, NC State, Wake, Clemson, etc. in favor of a bunch of midwestern or southern safety schools?

Why? None of the ACC schools being discussed are desperate for money. None are at risk of being shanghai'd by Big Ten insiders as Maryland was.

(08-17-2015 03:35 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Pretty easy.

If those are all up for grabs you take UNC, Duke, VT and UVA and declare expansion done with.

For the price of only expanding by 4, you get 3 AAU schools, two bluest of the blue blood basketball schools and a good FB school. And by the way, you just added nearly 20 million more new people to your television footprint (otherwise known as "another Florida") and are now in every major traditional southern market and the dominant force in the southern US.

And with deregulation of CCG, conference size isn't much of an issue if you are guaranteed to play your rivals every year and then rotate quicker through everyone else.

Nobody else comes close to bringing that much new value to the SEC.

So NC/VA are most definitely prizes worth waiting for.

Personally, I don't disagree with three of those four. I'd replace VT with Clemson. But, we both ignore the western side of the candidate map, including three of the big remaining draws: Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Two of the three come from states without many eyes, but the overall program quality of all three definitely lends itself to increased inventory, adding "meat" in national and regional fare.

(08-18-2015 09:32 PM)CintiFan Wrote:  

(08-18-2015 12:08 PM)FrancisDrake Wrote:  The ACC is gradually becoming less Tobacco road but those rivers run deep and NCSU, Wake, Duke, and UNC are still very much tied to each other. The additions of ND, Cuse, Pitt, BC and the less NC-centric nature of the conference will likely change that dynamic over time but not yet. NCSU isn't going anywhere unless all hell breaks.

NCSU and VT wouldn't be the decision makers. They would only go if UVA and UNC were going somewhere.

I just don't see either the SEC or B1G taking two teams from the same state unless it's UNC/Duke. UVA and VT have only been in the same conference 10 years, so there's very little ACC history. UNC and NC State have been together forever, but they are unique. In South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, the top two teams are split between the SEC and ACC but still play against each other as OOC rivals and are doing just fine in different conferences. There's no reason to believe UVA/VT and UNC/NC St. can't do the same.

Realignment is being driven by media considerations and it would be incredibly dumb for the B1G or SEC to take both UVA and VT or UNC and NC State when the better media solution is to split them. You can bet ESPN and Fox will be doing more than just whispering in the B1G and SEC's ears about what the right move is.

All of that assumes, of course, that the ACC gets picked apart. I agree the Virginia/North Carolina core want to stay together, but we'll see what pressure conference realignment brings to move.

I agree regarding taking two schools from the same state unless its UNC & Duke. I don't see those two in separate conferences ever. They are worth significantly more as a pair. I don't think anyone was saying VT and UVA or UNC and NCSU to the same conference, I just don't see the NC schools leaving each other unless Armageddon hits. As for UVA and VT. VT fought like hell to get into the ACC, they've said as much and they're not going anywhere unless UVA is.

I think is silly to buy into the belief having only 1 school in 1 state is the best outcome. The whole reason people watch college sports is the rivalry and passion. See ALabama vs Auburn ratings. If the SEC wants to raid the ACC, jumping to 24 might be the best bet with 3 divisions of 8 that act as stand alone other than football. Thus, you get 1 leadership, 1 network. Same concept works for the big 10. Ideally the big 10 would jump to 40 and the SEC to 24 and those 2 are the big leagues in college sports that have title game among their football champs.

As the number of conference games played rise it will become increasingly difficult to play rivals OOC unless they are in the same conference. In the case of NC they have multiple instate rivals which would make it impossible for them to play them all unless some are in conference.

(08-16-2015 10:22 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The Big Ten had its chance and got Maryland. Despite all the insiders proclamations of the end of The ACC, the best Delaney could do was Maryland. No UVa, no GaTech no Duke. Again if any of these schools would have wanted out of The ACC they wouldn't have signed The GOR.

First, we don't know if Delany tried to get anyone but Maryland. You assume Delany went 1-4 (tried to get MD, VA, Duke, GT) but struck out with three of them. For all we know he went 1-1, only tried to get Maryland and succeeded. Maryland was a WHALE of a prize for the B1G. A flagship located in the richest metropolitan area in the USA, and along with Rutgers puts the B1G in position to gain a large chunk of the enormously lucrative DC to NYC corridor.

Second, you make it seem like the B1G had a single window of opportunity and it has closed. But there's good reason to think not. First, the BTN continues to grow its revenue, second, the B1G is on the cusp of signing a new rights deal that will surely significantly boost that portion of its revenue.

IOW's, the B1G already makes a lot more money than the ACC, and is now poised to grow that advantage significantly. That boost in new money could very well be enough to tempt more ACC schools to run the legal risk of trying to break their GOR.

I'm not saying this will happen, but it is possible.

And this isn't a shot at the ACC. It goes without saying that the B1G money boom could also make it possible that Big 12 schools could be willing to exit for the B1G. I also don't think it totally outside the realm of possibility that a border-SEC school, like a Missouri or even Kentucky, might be tempted to leave the SEC. I really think that when the dust settles, the B1G is going to have a big money advantage over everyone, even over the SEC.

The money is going to look like this, at least until the late 2020s:

B1G ..> SEC ... > PAC, Big 12, ACC