(08-14-2015 02:44 AM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 11:46 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 10:34 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 10:19 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 09:46 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  NMSU would most likely swap places with Boise, if it joined the WAC. I can only think of Idaho and UTEP as other options.

That still gives the WAC eight teams. And even though every team in the WAC should be in another conference,

(Grand Canyon - Big Sky or Big West, NMSU - MWC, Seattle - WCC, CSUB - Big West, Chicago St - Summit, UTRGV - Southland, UMKC - Summit, UVU - Big Sky)

I don't think any of those moves are realities any time soon.

I honestly don't think NMSU is even in the MWC's top-5. The MWC may look to call-up Montana or NDSU before NMSU to the MWC. If the MWC can't get Houston, SMU, or Tulsa, the short list includes:

- UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas St.
- Montana, Montana St., NDSU
- then NMSU, Idaho

Central timezone is out. Hawaii and the other Pac timezone schools won't vote for it. That axes everyone in your first list except UTEP.

FCS move-ups can't go straight into a mid-major FBS conference like the MWC or AAC, so that axes the middle list.


That brings me back to the three I mentioned. And without Boise, why would UTEP leave the CUSA for the MWC?

Hawaii may not vote for Central timezone members, but everyone else will - if the other option is NMSU. And UNM will veto NMSU. The conference will look to San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, and El Paso, way before Las Cruces.

UTEP is actually high on the list. They have history in the WAC with the four front range schools and SDSU, Hawaii, and Fresno. El Paso is closer to Albuquerque and and Colorado Springs than San Antonio and Houston.

The entire conference will vote against Idaho. So, they're out.

It wouldn't hurt Hawaii too much to have UTEP in the conference since Hawaii is a football-only member, as long as UTEP paid their own way to the Islands. Hawaii would visit El Paso what, once every four years or so?

El Paso is in the Mountain Time zone.

(08-13-2015 05:57 PM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  Let's say for argument's sake that BYU and Boise St. are added for football only. After wildly celebrating, I would be pushing for the Big 12 to add more to get to 14.

How come? It would dilute competition, it would dilute the money, and it may negatively impact the brand - all bad things. Why would I want to do that after finally getting into a power conference?

Simple: stability. If Texas and Oklahoma leave, I want to have the potential of a good national conference network. I want to lock in good teams before the ACC or Pac 12 can offer them (see Louisville and Pitt). Adding teams will also better attack the TV markets of other conferences, such as the Big 10, Pac-12, and ACC, all while also further differentiating from the G5.

Should Texas and Oklahoma leave not only would I want to replace them, but would want to move past 14 to 16 or 18 teams to maintain as much clout, good teams, national markets, and bowl tie-ins as possible. By doing that, we would maintain "P5" status for at least a few years, if not indefinitely.

I don't know that other BYU people feel the same way. But, there have been too many historical examples of bad things happening to conferences hanging on to elite status, and building up too late (such as the Big East and the Big 12). For the Big 12, it is go big or go home.

You'd only be a P5 for the rest of the CFP.

By CFP II, you'd be on the outside looking in.


Same thing that happened to Big East/AAC when it went from BCS to CFP.

(08-13-2015 08:55 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  Big 12 could just become another G5 conference and call it a day.

TCU, Utah, and Louisville were once on the outside too - all finished ranked in 2014 - ahead of at least 41 other Power 5 programs. Most would argue that TCU is now one of the better Big 12 properties and that Louisville is one of the better ACC properties.

Any new call-ups will manage fine. In fact, expect UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, or Boise St. to compete for top-25 rankings if called up to the Autonomy Group.

(08-14-2015 11:39 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 08:55 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  Big 12 could just become another G5 conference and call it a day.

TCU, Utah, and Louisville were once on the outside too - all finished ranked in 2014 - ahead of at least 41 other Power 5 programs. Most would argue that TCU is now one of the better Big 12 properties and that Louisville is one of the better ACC properties.

Any new call-ups will manage fine. In fact, expect UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, or Boise St. to compete for top-25 rankings if called up to the Autonomy Group.

People might also argue that playing in and winning BCS games against good P5 teams was an indicator that TCU, Utah, Louisville could succeed in P5 conferences. One could say the same of Boise, UCF and maybe Cinci. BYU and Houston, on the other hand, have not done the same to date. However, Herman seems to be recruiting a lot of good athletes to Houston these days.

(08-14-2015 11:39 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 08:55 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  Big 12 could just become another G5 conference and call it a day.

TCU, Utah, and Louisville were once on the outside too - all finished ranked in 2014 - ahead of at least 41 other Power 5 programs. Most would argue that TCU is now one of the better Big 12 properties and that Louisville is one of the better ACC properties.

Any new call-ups will manage fine. In fact, expect UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, or Boise St. to compete for top-25 rankings if called up to the Autonomy Group.

The obvious difference being that TCU, Utah and Louisville were called up into a P conference and were able to have that transformative effect take hold in their programs.

The same won't be true for "call-ups" to the diminished XII.

(08-14-2015 11:39 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 08:55 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  Big 12 could just become another G5 conference and call it a day.

TCU, Utah, and Louisville were once on the outside too - all finished ranked in 2014 - ahead of at least 41 other Power 5 programs. Most would argue that TCU is now one of the better Big 12 properties and that Louisville is one of the better ACC properties.

Any new call-ups will manage fine. In fact, expect UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, or Boise St. to compete for top-25 rankings if called up to the Autonomy Group.

For UC there is a track record of it. Cincinnati finished in the top 25 in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011. I think they were just a few votes short in 2012. Even though they are not ranked in the preseason top 25, I would not be surprised to see them ranked at some point this year as well.

If it happens, it will be Colorado State and Cincinnati.

Why take CSU? You are flying West anyway (too far to bus to any team) so why not get a team with much more value in BYU?

(08-14-2015 10:38 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 02:44 AM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 11:46 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 10:34 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 10:19 AM)YNot Wrote:  I honestly don't think NMSU is even in the MWC's top-5. The MWC may look to call-up Montana or NDSU before NMSU to the MWC. If the MWC can't get Houston, SMU, or Tulsa, the short list includes:

- UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas St.
- Montana, Montana St., NDSU
- then NMSU, Idaho

Central timezone is out. Hawaii and the other Pac timezone schools won't vote for it. That axes everyone in your first list except UTEP.

FCS move-ups can't go straight into a mid-major FBS conference like the MWC or AAC, so that axes the middle list.


That brings me back to the three I mentioned. And without Boise, why would UTEP leave the CUSA for the MWC?

Hawaii may not vote for Central timezone members, but everyone else will - if the other option is NMSU. And UNM will veto NMSU. The conference will look to San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, and El Paso, way before Las Cruces.

UTEP is actually high on the list. They have history in the WAC with the four front range schools and SDSU, Hawaii, and Fresno. El Paso is closer to Albuquerque and and Colorado Springs than San Antonio and Houston.

The entire conference will vote against Idaho. So, they're out.

It wouldn't hurt Hawaii too much to have UTEP in the conference since Hawaii is a football-only member, as long as UTEP paid their own way to the Islands. Hawaii would visit El Paso what, once every four years or so?

El Paso is in the Mountain Time zone.

CUSA is a shell of its former self so I don't see why UTEP wouldn't want to be in the MWC. Travel should be a little more reasonable actually.

With that said, the MWC could just as easily go after UTSA or another TX school. Remember that TCU used to be in that league. Hawaii may not like it, but how valuable is UH anyway? If they want to play football somewhere else then they should be welcome to it and the rest would probably appreciate not having to take the long haul to Honolulu.

The MWC should really consider more than 1 TX school actually. The exposure for the league would be better if they had access to the Central time zone.

West: San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St, UNLV, Nevada, Utah St

Mountain: New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming, UTEP, UTSA

How did it work out for the WAC to expand into the Central timezone?

Seems like they had it pretty good, up to 10 members with Fresno St in 1992, all in the Pacific or Mountain timezones. Then someone gets the bright idea in 1996 to add six more schools, four of them in the Central timezone.

Boom. By 1999 the MWC was born. TCU leaves for the CUSA in 2001 and in 2005 all of the Central timezone schools, plus UTEP, move to the CUSA.


If the Mountain West had wanted UTEP, they would've invited them back then.

(08-13-2015 06:08 PM)YNot Wrote:  Big 12 could add BYU, Cincinnati, Boise St., and UCF.

BYU definitely yes. But Colorado State is a much better long-term move than Boise State.

(08-14-2015 07:11 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  How did it work out for the WAC to expand into the Central timezone?

Seems like they had it pretty good, up to 10 members with Fresno St in 1992, all in the Pacific or Mountain timezones. Then someone gets the bright idea in 1996 to add six more schools, four of them in the Central timezone.

Boom. By 1999 the MWC was born. TCU leaves for the CUSA in 2001 and in 2005 all of the Central timezone schools, plus UTEP, move to the CUSA.

Your test is overdetermined ... it is just as plausibly the expansion to 16.

There is, indeed, lots of precedent for conferences that grow beyond a certain size suffering from breakaways ... heck, it happened to the SoCon at least twice, once to make the SEC, and another time to make the ACC ... without having to be spread across three times zones.

(08-14-2015 05:03 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 11:46 AM)YNot Wrote:  The entire [MWC] conference will vote against Idaho. So, they're out.

C-USA is a shell of its former self so I don't see why UTEP wouldn't want to be in the MWC. Travel should be a little more reasonable actually.

With that said, the MWC could just as easily go after UTSA or another TX school. Remember that TCU used to be in that league. Hawaii may not like it, but how valuable is UH anyway?

The MWC should really consider more than 1 TX school actually. The exposure for the league would be better if they had access to the Central time zone.

Evidence that any Texas-based FBS programs are interested in joining the Mtn. West Conference? I have heard repeatedly form UTEP fans that they want to be in a league with several Texas-opponents.
Point taken on C-USA. But having lost Utah, BYU, and TCU, the Mountain isn't what it used to be, either. Boise doesn't make up for all 3 of those losses...

To YNot's comment: it amazes me that Idaho is able to remain in FBS. If there comes a point when they have to leave the Sun Belt, I don't see how they could survive as an FBS-Independent.

The best move the Big 12 could make is to invite the most valuable non-P5 programs available. That means BYU, Cincinnati, UCONN and 1 other. Just sayin...

(08-14-2015 08:37 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  The best move the Big 12 could make is to invite the most valuable non-P5 programs available. That means BYU, Cincinnati, UCONN and 1 other.

That might actually happen. The "1 other" in that scenario would probably be Colorado State

The top best 5 teams money wise are BYU, Boise State, UCF, Cincinnati and East Carolina.

U. Conn, Colorado State, Houston and USF are not there yet. Memphis is like in between because of their basketball.

(08-14-2015 08:16 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(08-13-2015 06:08 PM)YNot Wrote:  Big 12 could add BYU, Cincinnati, Boise St., and UCF.

BYU definitely yes. But Colorado State is a much better long-term move than Boise State.

If you had ever spend much time in Ft Collins you would not say this. They are not a good fit for the Big 12. They belong in a conference playing Air Force and Wyoming. The people there are too busy sniffing Peyton's jock to care about CSU football.

(08-14-2015 08:37 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  The best move the Big 12 could make is to invite the most valuable non-P5 programs available. That means BYU, Cincinnati, UCONN and 1 other. Just sayin...

I'm not sure that UConn is that valuable to the Big 12 without a network but I do think that UConn would have a great financial setup in the conference as the Typical T-3 content that Big 12 schools get to sell (1 FB game, and some BB and WBB games) would likely be quite valuable to UConn as the value of that content is almost the complete opposite of most Big 12 schools. I can't imagine a handful of TCU, TT, etc BB and WBB games are that valuable but a handful of UConn BB and WBB games would probably be quite valuable.

UConn is probably in the unique position of having content value that is completely different from everyone in the conference except maybe KU but even they don't have valuable WBB games. Good or Bad it's certainly an interesting aspect of UConn.

(08-14-2015 08:56 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The top best 5 teams money wise are BYU, Boise State, UCF, Cincinnati and East Carolina.

U. Conn, Colorado State, Houston and USF are not there yet. Memphis is like in between because of their basketball.

You've made plentiful amounts of dumb posts, but this may take the cake...

(08-14-2015 09:10 PM)Okielite Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 08:37 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  The best move the Big 12 could make is to invite the most valuable non-P5 programs available. That means BYU, Cincinnati, UCONN and 1 other. Just sayin...

I'm not sure that UConn is that valuable to the Big 12 without a network but I do think that UConn would have a great financial setup in the conference as the Typical T-3 content that Big 12 schools get to sell (1 FB game, and some BB and WBB games) would likely be quite valuable to UConn as the value of that content is almost the complete opposite of most Big 12 schools. I can't imagine a handful of TCU, TT, etc BB and WBB games are that valuable but a handful of UConn BB and WBB games would probably be quite valuable.

UConn is probably in the unique position of having content value that is completely different from everyone in the conference except maybe KU but even they don't have valuable WBB games. Good or Bad it's certainly an interesting aspect of UConn.

This may be the first time I've ever agreed with one of your posts. Maybe we can be friends afterall...