(07-22-2015 11:35 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  I've seen this movie before, and I've seen how it ends. It won't be tomorrow, it may not even be until 10 years from now, but it's inevitable.

Big 12: Big East, the sequel.

Big East, WAC, Big 12 and Sun Belt. All the schools are fighting with each other about expansion candidates.

(07-22-2015 11:47 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  The TCU ad was asked recently and his response was everyone needs to relax its only been one year

TCU will do nothing to upset Texas. The story of how TCU got invited to the Big 12 is the stuff of legends.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...-in-big-12
TCU has Texas' venerable AD to thank for being in Big 12


Unfortunately, the dark side of that story is that TCU owes Texas everything. There is no way they don't do as their benefactor desires.

There is a good point about Kstate and Kansas. Is the political structure in Kansas too strong to allow Kansas and KState to have divergent opportunities? So far, KState appears to be acting on its own.

I thought you were in Austin yesterday as I followed a BMW for awhile and the license plate was BE4eva no h

(07-21-2015 08:31 PM)bluesox Wrote:  why don't they just expand, not that hard:

Big 12

E: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Cincy, WVU

W: OU, Ok state, KU, Kan State, Io State, BYU

format 5-2-1

I'm for that - but the Big12 doesn't care what I'm for.

Big 12 had like over 20 years to add BYU, and they did not. That means no interests in BYU by the schools in the Big 12.

(07-22-2015 11:59 AM)BE4evah Wrote:  Unfortunately, the dark side of that story is that TCU owes Texas everything. There is no way they don't do as their benefactor desires.

The benefit was already delivered. Given that Texas cannot now turn around and kick TCU out of the Big12, the notion that TCU has to vote as Texas instructs from now on due to Texas's role in getting TCU into the Big12 is a bit implausible.

(07-21-2015 08:31 PM)bluesox Wrote:  why don't they just expand, not that hard:

Big 12

E: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Cincy, WVU

W: OU, Ok state, KU, Kan State, Io State, BYU

format 5-2-1

Good balanced divisions most years.

From our awesome poster GoHouston:

http://csnbbs.com/thread-743297.html

In a nutshell, where does each Big 12 coach stand on expansion?

Art Briles, Baylor: "Yeah, I would (support expansion) from a selfish standpoint. So we only have five (annual games) and three (cross-divisional games) and rotate those three. ... Honestly, divisions are OK. They're OK."

Paul Rhoads, Iowa State: "That's way above my pay grade. I will cop out and I have no problem doing it. (laughs)"

David Beaty, Kansas: "It's an everchanging landscape in college football. If they do expand, I know that commissioner Bowlsby, if that happens, I know he'll pick the right fits. That's important for us, the right fits in the Big 12 moving forward. Not just anyone, but making sure they fit the Big 12, I'm confident of that."

Bill Snyder, Kansas State: "I've long been an advocate of a certain way, and only because of its value to Kansas State. ... I have always favored the way it was at one time. I favor a 12 team conference, I favor two divisions, and I favor a championship game."

Bob Stoops, Oklahoma: "If it'd be the right teams, if somebody's going to bring something to continue to improve the quality, sure."

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State: "I wish I could speak intelligently on it. I have a lot of confidence in our league office. Do I think at some point two more teams will get on board? I do. I don't know who they are, I don't know when. Do I want to have a conference championship game right now? No. I guess what I'm saying is I don't think there's any reason right now to hit a panic button."

Charlie Strong, Texas: "Whatever the commissioner thinks is right, I'm all for." [/b][/b]

Gary Patterson, TCU: "[color=#FF0000]No[/color]. Reason I don't really look forward to it is the only way you do that is you'll probably have to travel a longer distance and I've already done the west coast, east coast thing."[/b]

Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech: I really don't have much of an opinion on that, truly. I think it's a great plan, what we're putting out there now. ... "I haven't thought too much about expansion, I just play the games on the schedule. The only one I've heard consistently is BYU and obviously they're a storied program, but I haven't thought too much about it."

[u]Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia[/u]: "I think there's some quality teams out there. ... In order for some of those teams to be considered, they need to model what TCU did, which, 10 years ago, they started building and started winning. Which teams those are is not for me to say, but I'd use the TCU model in order to be considered."


http://www.foxsports.com/southwest/story...-in-072215

Isn't Boise State pretty much following the TCU model?

(07-22-2015 03:28 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Isn't Boise State pretty much following the TCU model?

One theme that I have noticed for the Big 12 leaders who want to expand is that geography plays a huge role. I wonder if BYU and Boise are just too far? Plus, they don't help out the eastward presence. This theme is echoed in the comments from the coaches.

Often times we're neglectful of the feelings of the student athletes. But I hope that the incredibly difficult job that they do is taken into account. The student-athletes are our core. They need all the support, love and care we can give to them. I think that the people in charge of the schools have that as their first and only priority.

(07-22-2015 04:05 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  One theme that I have noticed for the Big 12 leaders who want to expand is that geography plays a huge role. I wonder if BYU and Boise are just too far? Plus, they don't help out the eastward presence. This theme is echoed in the comments from the coaches.

This theme is echoed in the comments from West Virginia's coach. No one else. And who do you think WVU will pull for? TCU's coach specifically references west coast and east coast - which would eliminate UCF, USF, UConn, ECU and SDSU and Fresno St. from his list of candidates.

If geography plays a primary role for the entire Big 12, then Memphis and Houston are at the top of the list. Cincinnati is also under consideration.

Houston is the closest candidate to Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech and second closest to Oklahoma St.

Memphis is closest to Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St. and second closest to Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa St., and West Virginia.

Cincinnati is closest to West Virginia and Iowa St. and second closest to Kansas and Kansas St.

FWIW, BYU is actually closer than UCF to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas, Kansas St., Texas Tech, and Iowa St. There are 100 miles or fewer from BYU to Texas, TCU, and Baylor when compared to the distance from UCF to these same destinations. WVU is the only Big 12 member where UCF over BYU makes a considerable difference - 900 versus 1,900 miles difference. Whereas, BYU is closer to Kansas St., Kansas, and Iowa St. by more than 200 miles.

(07-22-2015 05:26 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 04:05 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  One theme that I have noticed for the Big 12 leaders who want to expand is that geography plays a huge role. I wonder if BYU and Boise are just too far? Plus, they don't help out the eastward presence. This theme is echoed in the comments from the coaches.

This theme is echoed in the comments from West Virginia's coach. No one else. And who do you think WVU will pull for? TCU's coach specifically references west coast and east coast - which would eliminate UCF, USF, UConn, ECU and SDSU and Fresno St. from his list of candidates.

If geography plays a primary role for the entire Big 12, then Memphis and Houston are at the top of the list. Cincinnati is also under consideration.

Houston is the closest candidate to Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech and second closest to Oklahoma St.

Memphis is closest to Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St. and second closest to Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa St., and West Virginia.

Cincinnati is closest to West Virginia and Iowa St. and second closest to Kansas and Kansas St.

FWIW, BYU is actually closer than UCF to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas, Kansas St., Texas Tech, and Iowa St. There are 100 miles or fewer from BYU to Texas, TCU, and Baylor when compared to the distance from UCF to these same destinations. WVU is the only Big 12 member where UCF over BYU makes a considerable difference - 900 versus 1,900 miles difference. Whereas, BYU is closer to Kansas St., Kansas, and Iowa St. by more than 200 miles.

I just don't see the conference, if it expands, creating 2 more islands. So BYU and UCF is a non-starter. One or the other could make it, but not both.

(07-22-2015 06:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 05:26 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 04:05 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  One theme that I have noticed for the Big 12 leaders who want to expand is that geography plays a huge role. I wonder if BYU and Boise are just too far? Plus, they don't help out the eastward presence. This theme is echoed in the comments from the coaches.

This theme is echoed in the comments from West Virginia's coach. No one else. And who do you think WVU will pull for? TCU's coach specifically references west coast and east coast - which would eliminate UCF, USF, UConn, ECU and SDSU and Fresno St. from his list of candidates.

If geography plays a primary role for the entire Big 12, then Memphis and Houston are at the top of the list. Cincinnati is also under consideration.

Houston is the closest candidate to Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech and second closest to Oklahoma St.

Memphis is closest to Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St. and second closest to Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa St., and West Virginia.

Cincinnati is closest to West Virginia and Iowa St. and second closest to Kansas and Kansas St.

FWIW, BYU is actually closer than UCF to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas, Kansas St., Texas Tech, and Iowa St. There are 100 miles or fewer from BYU to Texas, TCU, and Baylor when compared to the distance from UCF to these same destinations. WVU is the only Big 12 member where UCF over BYU makes a considerable difference - 900 versus 1,900 miles difference. Whereas, BYU is closer to Kansas St., Kansas, and Iowa St. by more than 200 miles.

I just don't see the conference, if it expands, creating 2 more islands. So BYU and UCF is a non-starter. One or the other could make it, but not both.

I agree (even without this quote from the TCU official); making geographic islands is a bad financial move and is destabilizing because it creates incentives for people to bail out in the future. If you're going to keep the 10 you have (including WVU) and not create additional islands (WVU is an island already), that makes Cincinnati the most likely candidate (in my opinion) because it creates continuity without simply duplicating territory. The other addition has to avoid making an additional island - or bridges gaps that still exist to WVU and Cincinnati - and adds territory/markets; which either favors BYU or Memphis. I think Houston is such redundant territory (with 4 programs already in Texas) that they might get bypassed entirely even if they add more in other areas. I don't see how UCF fits because it creates an additional island and has no natural support from any current set of programs. That's my 2 cents - and it is probably over-priced.

(07-22-2015 11:50 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 11:35 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  I've seen this movie before, and I've seen how it ends. It won't be tomorrow, it may not even be until 10 years from now, but it's inevitable.

Big 12: Big East, the sequel.

Big East, WAC, Big 12 and Sun Belt. All the schools are fighting with each other about expansion candidates.

who is the Big East fighting over? Do you mean the old big east?

(07-22-2015 09:04 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 08:39 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 07:54 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 07:47 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I think eventually they end up expanding. I have no idea if it is 1, 2 or 5 years. The deal breaker for expansion would be the B12 gets team in play off 3 of the next 4 years. And that is very possible.

THey will expand even if a team made the playoff so they can increase their chances for the future and also bring in more revenue by having a conference title game.

IIRC Bowlsby said the networks will not increase the payout if they add a title game.

Bowlsby was quoted a couple of days ago as saying a ccg would be worth $20-$30 million for the Big 12.

That's a lot of money. Even in these days of 20 million dollar per school TV deals.

Really then the B12 just needs to find a 2 team market combo that delivers enough value to be worth another 20-30 million to the league.

Add two non-P5 schools with the best winning percentage over the next 5 years or so before the look-in. If that happens to be Boise State and Hawaii add them both regardless of location.

If Oklahoma wants to expand or else they'll leave, how are any of these expansion candidates going to satisfy OU?

Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, South Florida?

How would adding those schools keep OU from leaving? I don't see how they change anything in that regard. And it seems likely they'd decrease the per-school payouts, if anything.

(07-22-2015 09:55 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  If Oklahoma wants to expand or else they'll leave, how are any of these expansion candidates going to satisfy OU?

Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, South Florida?

How would adding those schools keep OU from leaving? I don't see how they change anything in that regard. And it seems likely they'd decrease the per-school payouts, if anything.

Some TV contracts (I don't know if it is true of the Big12 TV contract) specify "payments per team" - so the TV revenue per team is unchanged by expansion. Adding additional teams to get to 12 or more schools also allows a conference to add a FB conference championship game (which brings in additional revenue) and bringing in additional markets adds to the market power of the conference (advertising dollars). Adding certain teams (but not just any teams) adds money in terms of additional bowl payouts or additional NCAA basketball credits/revenues as well.

If OU wants divisional play and a FB CCG, then the "who" is a little less important. If the additions are regular NCAA tournament schools (Cincinnati, Memphis, UConn etc) or regular bowl game participants (BYU, Cincinnati, UCF etc) then they can bring in more revenues as well. Some schools happen to be the homes of major corporations, which can add support/bowl sponsorships for the conference as well (FedEX in Memphis, Kroger/GE/Procter&Gamble in Cincinnati, Disney in Orlando, etc).

So the question is: does OU favor expansion to add specific schools - or a conference championship game?

(07-23-2015 12:13 PM)nert Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 09:55 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  If Oklahoma wants to expand or else they'll leave, how are any of these expansion candidates going to satisfy OU?

Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, South Florida?

How would adding those schools keep OU from leaving? I don't see how they change anything in that regard. And it seems likely they'd decrease the per-school payouts, if anything.

Some TV contracts (I don't know if it is true of the Big12 TV contract) specify "payments per team" - so the TV revenue per team is unchanged by expansion. Adding additional teams to get to 12 or more schools also allows a conference to add a FB conference championship game (which brings in additional revenue) and bringing in additional markets adds to the market power of the conference (advertising dollars). Adding certain teams (but not just any teams) adds money in terms of additional bowl payouts or additional NCAA basketball credits/revenues as well.

If OU wants divisional play and a FB CCG, then the "who" is a little less important. If the additions are regular NCAA tournament schools (Cincinnati, Memphis, UConn etc) or regular bowl game participants (BYU, Cincinnati, UCF etc) then they can bring in more revenues as well. Some schools happen to be the homes of major corporations, which can add support/bowl sponsorships for the conference as well (FedEX in Memphis, Kroger/GE/Procter&Gamble in Cincinnati, Disney in Orlando, etc).

So the question is: does OU favor expansion to add specific schools - or a conference championship game?

If you take Boren literally, he wants 12 AND a ccg. Although there don't seem to be specific schools he wants.

(07-22-2015 04:05 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 03:28 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Isn't Boise State pretty much following the TCU model?

One theme that I have noticed for the Big 12 leaders who want to expand is that geography plays a huge role. I wonder if BYU and Boise are just too far? Plus, they don't help out the eastward presence. This theme is echoed in the comments from the coaches.

Often times we're neglectful of the feelings of the student athletes. But I hope that the incredibly difficult job that they do is taken into account. The student-athletes are our core. They need all the support, love and care we can give to them. I think that the people in charge of the schools have that as their first and only priority.

Look at North Dakota State? Their stock is rising, and are giving the Big 12 fits lately. They are on the border with Minnesota and eastward than most Big 12 schools. They are a very high research institue which fit in with most Big 12 schools, the fans do travel, and they have been very good in all of their major sports like football, men's basketball and baseball. They could help bring their wrestling program which could help give Big 12 more schools to form a Big 12 wrestling conference. Could North Dakota State and Cincinnati be the 2 front runners?

Cincinnati for West Virginia and North Dakota State for Iowa State?

Memphis and Houston for 13 and 14th, and UCF and East Carolina for 15th and 16th?

(07-23-2015 12:56 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 04:05 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  

(07-22-2015 03:28 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Isn't Boise State pretty much following the TCU model?

One theme that I have noticed for the Big 12 leaders who want to expand is that geography plays a huge role. I wonder if BYU and Boise are just too far? ...

Look at North Dakota State? Their stock is rising, and are giving the Big 12 fits lately. They are on the border with Minnesota and eastward than most Big 12 schools. They are a very high research institue which fit in with most Big 12 schools, the fans do travel, and they have been very good in all of their major sports like football, men's basketball and baseball. They could help bring their wrestling program which could help give Big 12 more schools to form a Big 12 wrestling conference. Could North Dakota State and Cincinnati be the 2 front runners?

Cincinnati for West Virginia and North Dakota State for Iowa State?

Memphis and Houston for 13 and 14th, and UCF and East Carolina for 15th and 16th?

Props to the Bison for building up their program. They have certainly been dominant at the FCS level.

However, one small reality check. BYU has been averaging attendance in football that would rate them #3 if they were in the Big 12, and they have been doing it for 30 straight years, good season and bad. NDSU has a ways to go before that kind of support exists. Perhaps they would be a good fit in an expanded MWC with Northern Illinois.

Second, I'm not sure the Big 12 will rely on Iowa St and West Virginia to "host" schools. If the TCU/Texas AD drinking story is even partially correct, that is a horrendous way to pick teams for a conference long-term. People have to do their due diligence, and I am guessing they will be more careful this time around.

Third, the choices logically should either make Texas and Oklahoma happier in the conference, or hurt the conferences they are likely to go to in order to make them less desirable. Doubt any team but FSU will make the two happy, but they may be able to nick away at other conferences through addition.
1- Can they pull any teams from the Pac 12 or Big 10, conferences rumored to be after Texas and OU? Perhaps Arizona St as it fits their profile, but that is a long shot.
2- Can they add teams that infringe on Pac-12 or Big 10 TV territory? BYU dominates the SLC market, and has penetration in the Phoenix market, providing significant competition for the Pac-12 in those two markets. Boise dominates Idaho, but that is not a Pac-12 market. Cincy penetrates the Big 10 market in Ohio, though it does not dominate it. UConn has good penetration in the Northeast markets, though those are more pro markets than Big 10 markets. Those are about the only teams that can help the Big 12 gain in Pac-12 or Big 10 dominated markets.

In the past I've been an awful judge of what the Pac-12 is likely to do, so the Bison may be on their way. However, it sounds like this time will be determined less by interpersonal relationships, and more by data.