(12-26-2015 06:41 AM)deb025 Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 02:19 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 09:32 AM)Usajags Wrote:  And the next round could be big and conference ending for one conference. Could see either CUSA or the SBC be eaten alive by a major shakeup. If the Big 12 rule doesn't pass, hold on to your seat, it's gonna get bumpy.

If it is indeed big, I agree and say that either CUSA or Sun Belt is gone.

Which one it will be will depend on how it is pulled: If the only one raided is CUSA and they lose like 4 teams, I think the Sun Belt will be able to then entice CUSA teams to us. If they raid both conferences, then CUSA will survive.

What are you smoking? I understand conference pride but that's just delusional thinking. Good luck with that.

If CUSA lost Marshall, USM, Rice, and UTEP...and SBC lost zero....why do you think any SBC member would want to pay the entrance and exit fees to join the remainders in CUSA?

(12-26-2015 09:07 AM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 06:41 AM)deb025 Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 02:19 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 09:32 AM)Usajags Wrote:  And the next round could be big and conference ending for one conference. Could see either CUSA or the SBC be eaten alive by a major shakeup. If the Big 12 rule doesn't pass, hold on to your seat, it's gonna get bumpy.

If it is indeed big, I agree and say that either CUSA or Sun Belt is gone.

Which one it will be will depend on how it is pulled: If the only one raided is CUSA and they lose like 4 teams, I think the Sun Belt will be able to then entice CUSA teams to us. If they raid both conferences, then CUSA will survive.

What are you smoking? I understand conference pride but that's just delusional thinking. Good luck with that.

If CUSA lost Marshall, USM, Rice, and UTEP...and SBC lost zero....why do you think any SBC member would want to pay the entrance and exit fees to join the remainders in CUSA?

He is a techie......mentally damaged.

(12-26-2015 09:07 AM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 06:41 AM)deb025 Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 02:19 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 09:32 AM)Usajags Wrote:  And the next round could be big and conference ending for one conference. Could see either CUSA or the SBC be eaten alive by a major shakeup. If the Big 12 rule doesn't pass, hold on to your seat, it's gonna get bumpy.

If it is indeed big, I agree and say that either CUSA or Sun Belt is gone.

Which one it will be will depend on how it is pulled: If the only one raided is CUSA and they lose like 4 teams, I think the Sun Belt will be able to then entice CUSA teams to us. If they raid both conferences, then CUSA will survive.

What are you smoking? I understand conference pride but that's just delusional thinking. Good luck with that.

If CUSA lost Marshall, USM, Rice, and UTEP...and SBC lost zero....why do you think any SBC member would want to pay the entrance and exit fees to join the remainders in CUSA?

Here's my view.

1) Any expansion of the P5 harms the G5.
2) The harm will not be equally distributed amongst the conferences.
3) CUSA and the AAC appear to have the most to lose in an additional realignment scenario
4) Neither the Sun Belt nor CUSA are likely to fold in a realignment scenario.
5) While it is possible that CUSA could get raided to the point where Belt schools say 'no thanks' to moving up, its still unlikely, and would require a specific scenario.

USA - would want to play with USM. So USA would probably accept a CUSA bid so long as USM is in the conference. USA has very long ties with WKU and MTSU (and unlike some other Belt programs, gets along with both).

ULL - would want to play with La Tech

Texas State - wants to join UNT and UTSA

App St - so long as Ga Southern goes too, would probably prefer to go with ODU and UNCC.

stAte - might actually stay.

ULM, Troy, Idaho - not getting asked.

Ga. State - probably not getting asked. Ga State might have resolved some of their issues, but they still have the attendance issue.

NMSU - Unlikely they get asked. UTEP is apparently blocking them. And without UTEP, I'm not sure CUSA even wants to be way out west.

Ga. Southern - Wants to stay with App. Would probably like to play with Marshall.

---

If Rice and UTEP go to the MWC, and immediately around that time, say USM and Marshall get poached by CUSA, then its possible that the Belt could hang on to all their members, but the problem remains that there still would be 3 programs forming the core of CUSA (MTSU, WKU, and La Tech).

But I still don't think that CUSA loses anyone to the Belt in that scenario. Basically, CUSA must lose at least 3 of the following 5 teams (Marshall, USM, WKU, MTSU, La Tech) to cause a rush for the exits. As the MWC doesn't appear to be taking any of the 5, they big rush for the exits probably won't happen.

---

So if USA, ULL, stAte, Ga Southern, App St. got together and said, 'none of us are leaving for CUSA' then that might cause a bit of panic on the other side. The big winner in that case would be JMU. They'd probably also take one team from the Belt (either Texas State or Georgia State). If those didn't bite, they'd offer UMass a football only.

---

This scenario, while possible, is unlikely. Most likely result is that the CUSA loses a team or two and decides to not replace them or offer them to a SBC school which would accept.

---

The only scenario that I see dropping CUSA below the Belt is if the MWC took UTEP and La Tech, and then CUSA immediately losing USM and Marshall to the AAC.

(12-26-2015 09:07 AM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 06:41 AM)deb025 Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 02:19 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 09:32 AM)Usajags Wrote:  And the next round could be big and conference ending for one conference. Could see either CUSA or the SBC be eaten alive by a major shakeup. If the Big 12 rule doesn't pass, hold on to your seat, it's gonna get bumpy.

If it is indeed big, I agree and say that either CUSA or Sun Belt is gone.

Which one it will be will depend on how it is pulled: If the only one raided is CUSA and they lose like 4 teams, I think the Sun Belt will be able to then entice CUSA teams to us. If they raid both conferences, then CUSA will survive.

What are you smoking? I understand conference pride but that's just delusional thinking. Good luck with that.

If CUSA lost Marshall, USM, Rice, and UTEP...and SBC lost zero....why do you think any SBC member would want to pay the entrance and exit fees to join the remainders in CUSA?

I know stAte, UL, USA, Tx St or Ga St. would really have to think hard before joining. Things are different now. When the SB defectors left, they were guaranteed to get the $$ back with the TV contract. Everyone knows the next TV contract will not be as lucrative and like above, the entrance/exit fees are higher than before. Also the bowl tie-ins are not any better. In many cases, they are much worse due to travel concerns.

I don't see a higher value in being affiliated with La Tech, MTSU, WKU, NT, UTSA or UAB and certainly no value in playing UNCC, ODU and the Florida schools.

(07-12-2015 09:32 AM)Usajags Wrote:  And the next round could be big and conference ending for one conference. Could see either CUSA or the SBC be eaten alive by a major shakeup. If the Big 12 rule doesn't pass, hold on to your seat, it's gonna get bumpy.

The Big 12 doesn't want to expand and even if they decided to expand to 12, we are talking two schools to get to 12. I just can't see a major shakeup. Even if CUSA lost two schools, they could stay at 12.

(12-26-2015 06:41 AM)deb025 Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 02:19 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 09:32 AM)Usajags Wrote:  And the next round could be big and conference ending for one conference. Could see either CUSA or the SBC be eaten alive by a major shakeup. If the Big 12 rule doesn't pass, hold on to your seat, it's gonna get bumpy.

If it is indeed big, I agree and say that either CUSA or Sun Belt is gone.

Which one it will be will depend on how it is pulled: If the only one raided is CUSA and they lose like 4 teams, I think the Sun Belt will be able to then entice CUSA teams to us. If they raid both conferences, then CUSA will survive.

What are you smoking? I understand conference pride but that's just delusional thinking. Good luck with that.

It's not that simple. The biggest enticing factor about CUSA right now is its TV contract, which is about to be cut into half if you listened to the rumors.

If in a fictional scenario the AAC came and grabbed Southern Miss and Marshall, CUSA loses it's biggest baraining chips with the SBC. Right now a combination of TV contract and the desire to play USM, Marshall, and Rice keeps everyone interested. You take Marshall and USM out of the scenario, take the TV contract out of play, suddenly you're essentially asking schools to rejoin the old SBC plus La Tech. That's harder to do, especially for those of us who don't have any regional rivals in the league as it is.

Expansion won't happen though.

I think eventually if a shake up happens, the smartest thing to do would be for CUSA and the SBC to reorganize into two new conferences.

New East Conference:
WKU
App
Ga Southern
Marshall
MTSU
CCU
GaSt
ODU
UNCC
Troy
FAU
FIU
UAB?


New West Conference:
ULL
ULM
StAte
UTEP
UTSA
Rice
USA
NMSU
TXST
LaTech
UNT
USM

That's if no teams from CUSA or the SBC get poached by the AAC.

(12-26-2015 05:36 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  I think eventually if a shake up happens, the smartest thing to do would be for CUSA and the SBC to reorganize into two new conferences.

New East Conference:
WKU
App
Ga Southern
Marshall
MTSU
CCU
GaSt
ODU
UNCC
Troy
FAU
FIU
UAB?


New West Conference:
ULL
ULM
StAte
UTEP
UTSA
Rice
USA
NMSU
TXST
LaTech
UNT
USM

That's if no teams from CUSA or the SBC get poached by the AAC.

USA would be the easternmost member of this hypothetical West conference, which would make me nervous.

(12-26-2015 07:24 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  USA would be the easternmost member of this hypothetical West conference, which would make me nervous.

Yes unfortunately if you do the Alabama split, USA would be either the Eastern Most team in the West Conference or the South Western most team in the East conference. Luckily, each conference has around 12 members so they both could split into divisions which would cut down on travel costs. It seems natural to have the split be between the three G5 teams in Alabama though.

(12-26-2015 10:35 AM)Rik Flair Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 09:07 AM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 06:41 AM)deb025 Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 02:19 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 09:32 AM)Usajags Wrote:  And the next round could be big and conference ending for one conference. Could see either CUSA or the SBC be eaten alive by a major shakeup. If the Big 12 rule doesn't pass, hold on to your seat, it's gonna get bumpy.

If it is indeed big, I agree and say that either CUSA or Sun Belt is gone.

Which one it will be will depend on how it is pulled: If the only one raided is CUSA and they lose like 4 teams, I think the Sun Belt will be able to then entice CUSA teams to us. If they raid both conferences, then CUSA will survive.

What are you smoking? I understand conference pride but that's just delusional thinking. Good luck with that.

If CUSA lost Marshall, USM, Rice, and UTEP...and SBC lost zero....why do you think any SBC member would want to pay the entrance and exit fees to join the remainders in CUSA?

I know stAte, UL, USA, Tx St or Ga St. would really have to think hard before joining. Things are different now. When the SB defectors left, they were guaranteed to get the $$ back with the TV contract. Everyone knows the next TV contract will not be as lucrative and like above, the entrance/exit fees are higher than before. Also the bowl tie-ins are not any better. In many cases, they are much worse due to travel concerns.

I don't see a higher value in being affiliated with La Tech, MTSU, WKU, NT, UTSA or UAB and certainly no value in playing UNCC, ODU and the Florida schools.

This has all been said before and it never turns out to be true. Every single time that CUSA has offered membership to a member of the SBC, that SBC member bolted for the door before the ink could dry on the paperwork. The exact same thing will happen again if there is another round of realignment. The only questions would be who, and how many would be leaving for CUSA. Don't kid yourself. Ark St would leave in a heartbeat just like everyone else.

This situation is not unique to the SBC. No CUSA member has ever turned down an offer from the AAC, and no CUSA member ever will. That's just how things are.

(12-26-2015 05:36 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  I think eventually if a shake up happens, the smartest thing to do would be for CUSA and the SBC to reorganize into two new conferences.

New East Conference:
WKU
App
Ga Southern
Marshall
MTSU
CCU
GaSt
ODU
UNCC
Troy
FAU
FIU
UAB?


New West Conference:
ULL
ULM
StAte
UTEP
UTSA
Rice
USA
NMSU
TXST
LaTech
UNT
USM

That's if no teams from CUSA or the SBC get poached by the AAC.

that would somewhat similar to what I imagined, however LA Tech and ULM would be a not starter. I most likely see ULM dropping FB or moving down to FCS.
My reorganization attempt:
CUSA
West: NMSU, UTEP, N. Tex, Rice, UTSA, Tex. St
East: Marshall, Ark. St, La Tech, ULL, WKU, MTSU

Sunbelt:
South: UAB, Troy, USA, USM, FAU, FIU
North: UNCC, App. St, ODU, Coastal Car, Ga St., Ga. So.

dropped are ULM and Idaho.

(12-27-2015 08:42 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 10:35 AM)Rik Flair Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 09:07 AM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 06:41 AM)deb025 Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 02:19 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  If it is indeed big, I agree and say that either CUSA or Sun Belt is gone.

Which one it will be will depend on how it is pulled: If the only one raided is CUSA and they lose like 4 teams, I think the Sun Belt will be able to then entice CUSA teams to us. If they raid both conferences, then CUSA will survive.

What are you smoking? I understand conference pride but that's just delusional thinking. Good luck with that.

If CUSA lost Marshall, USM, Rice, and UTEP...and SBC lost zero....why do you think any SBC member would want to pay the entrance and exit fees to join the remainders in CUSA?

I know stAte, UL, USA, Tx St or Ga St. would really have to think hard before joining. Things are different now. When the SB defectors left, they were guaranteed to get the $$ back with the TV contract. Everyone knows the next TV contract will not be as lucrative and like above, the entrance/exit fees are higher than before. Also the bowl tie-ins are not any better. In many cases, they are much worse due to travel concerns.

I don't see a higher value in being affiliated with La Tech, MTSU, WKU, NT, UTSA or UAB and certainly no value in playing UNCC, ODU and the Florida schools.

This has all been said before and it never turns out to be true. Every single time that CUSA has offered membership to a member of the SBC, that SBC member bolted for the door before the ink could dry on the paperwork. The exact same thing will happen again if there is another round of realignment. The only questions would be who, and how many would be leaving for CUSA. Don't kid yourself. Ark St would leave in a heartbeat just like everyone else.

This situation is not unique to the SBC. No CUSA member has ever turned down an offer from the AAC, and no CUSA member ever will. That's just how things are.

depends on tv contract.

(12-27-2015 08:42 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 10:35 AM)Rik Flair Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 09:07 AM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 06:41 AM)deb025 Wrote:  

(07-12-2015 02:19 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  If it is indeed big, I agree and say that either CUSA or Sun Belt is gone.

Which one it will be will depend on how it is pulled: If the only one raided is CUSA and they lose like 4 teams, I think the Sun Belt will be able to then entice CUSA teams to us. If they raid both conferences, then CUSA will survive.

What are you smoking? I understand conference pride but that's just delusional thinking. Good luck with that.

If CUSA lost Marshall, USM, Rice, and UTEP...and SBC lost zero....why do you think any SBC member would want to pay the entrance and exit fees to join the remainders in CUSA?

I know stAte, UL, USA, Tx St or Ga St. would really have to think hard before joining. Things are different now. When the SB defectors left, they were guaranteed to get the $$ back with the TV contract. Everyone knows the next TV contract will not be as lucrative and like above, the entrance/exit fees are higher than before. Also the bowl tie-ins are not any better. In many cases, they are much worse due to travel concerns.

I don't see a higher value in being affiliated with La Tech, MTSU, WKU, NT, UTSA or UAB and certainly no value in playing UNCC, ODU and the Florida schools.

This has all been said before and it never turns out to be true. Every single time that CUSA has offered membership to a member of the SBC, that SBC member bolted for the door before the ink could dry on the paperwork. The exact same thing will happen again if there is another round of realignment. The only questions would be who, and how many would be leaving for CUSA. Don't kid yourself. Ark St would leave in a heartbeat just like everyone else.

This situation is not unique to the SBC. No CUSA member has ever turned down an offer from the AAC, and no CUSA member ever will. That's just how things are.

Really, you know this because of how?

We might leave if an offer came, I honestly don't know. But I can tell you that our administration won't just automatically accept anything. We don't have some crazy desire to play in the same league with Tech and a bunch of schools we've already shared a league with. We have a desire to improve our chances of making the access bowl and becoming a top level G5 team. If our administrators think they can do that in the Sun Belt, they'll stay in the Sun Belt. If not, we'd consider an offer if cost was right.

For all you know, we might be the first.

(12-27-2015 08:42 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  This has all been said before and it never turns out to be true. Every single time that CUSA has offered membership to a member of the SBC, that SBC member bolted for the door before the ink could dry on the paperwork. The exact same thing will happen again if there is another round of realignment. The only questions would be who, and how many would be leaving for CUSA. Don't kid yourself. Ark St would leave in a heartbeat just like everyone else.

This situation is not unique to the SBC. No CUSA member has ever turned down an offer from the AAC, and no CUSA member ever will. That's just how things are.

There you go again BR, speaking in absolutes........it's as though you think recent past will always be an indicator of the distant future. I assure you, that's not necessarily the case.

BR, do you believe the fortunes of individual teams rise and fall? Of course you do. Do you believe the fortunes of individual conferences rise and fall? I know you do.

In football, C-USA finished first last year, dead last this year amongst the G5's. I believe it was 2013 when we were the G4's that the Belt finished first. Based solely on athletic budgets and facilities there's little doubt that the AAC has a lead on the rest of us, but for all practical purposes, the MAC, and especialy C-USA and Sunbelt, are identical and I'd challenge anyone to argue otherwise. And for your conference and mine, whether it's basketball or baseball, the same can be also said.

None of us knows what the future holds. Having said that, it's not inconceivable that C-USA finds itself in dire straits one day and sees schools looking for the door, even if the door leads to the SunBelt. You know I'm right because when the WAC collapsed around you, you guys were looking for the door, ANY door.

(12-30-2015 01:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Really, you know this because of how?

I've splained this. In BR-land, his opinion equals fact. It's really that simple. Try to keep up.

(12-30-2015 11:20 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  that would somewhat similar to what I imagined, however LA Tech and ULM would be a not starter. I most likely see ULM dropping FB or moving down to FCS.
My reorganization attempt:
CUSA
West: NMSU, UTEP, N. Tex, Rice, UTSA, Tex. St
East: Marshall, Ark. St, La Tech, ULL, WKU, MTSU

Sunbelt:
South: UAB, Troy, USA, USM, FAU, FIU
North: UNCC, App. St, ODU, Coastal Car, Ga St., Ga. So.

dropped are ULM and Idaho.

Well I think the whole reason the two conferences would merge is to make them more regional. What you did was put CUSA's under-performing schools in the sunbelt and replace them with better schools. Regional conferences make way more sense and if that's the case, Marshall should not be in a conference with NMSU.

(12-30-2015 02:45 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  

(12-30-2015 11:20 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  that would somewhat similar to what I imagined, however LA Tech and ULM would be a not starter. I most likely see ULM dropping FB or moving down to FCS.
My reorganization attempt:
CUSA
West: NMSU, UTEP, N. Tex, Rice, UTSA, Tex. St
East: Marshall, Ark. St, La Tech, ULL, WKU, MTSU

Sunbelt:
South: UAB, Troy, USA, USM, FAU, FIU
North: UNCC, App. St, ODU, Coastal Car, Ga St., Ga. So.

dropped are ULM and Idaho.

Well I think the whole reason the two conferences would merge is to make them more regional. What you did was put CUSA's under-performing schools in the sunbelt and replace them with better schools. Regional conferences make way more sense and if that's the case, Marshall should not be in a conference with NMSU.

I did have Marshall, WKU and MTSU in the Sunbelt North, but that would have USM, USA and Troy in the CUSA East and felt that those three would rather be in the Sunbelt South and Marshall, WKU, MTSU wouldn't mind staying in the CUSA East.

If anyone gets raided, it will be AAC. AAC will either dissolve (unlikely since they already have 12 members) or they will start poaching for members from neighboring conferences.

It's a trickle down effect and then the SBC will get tested for its unity. If SBC would hold true and every member not move, then (and only then) would they start becoming the predator. TV contract would change and SBC would become more marketable.

Lots of possibilities.

I think if there is no realignment in the next 4-5 years, then the SBC will be very strong. CCU will allow a title game and the EAST / WEST Divisions will bring great rivalries (cheaper travel) for the schools. Lots of positives!

The G5 will flatten - bad news for the AAC, good news for the Sun Belt. Any move to something other than a P5 league will become increasingly closer to lateral.

(12-30-2015 01:33 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(12-27-2015 08:42 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  This has all been said before and it never turns out to be true. Every single time that CUSA has offered membership to a member of the SBC, that SBC member bolted for the door before the ink could dry on the paperwork. The exact same thing will happen again if there is another round of realignment. The only questions would be who, and how many would be leaving for CUSA. Don't kid yourself. Ark St would leave in a heartbeat just like everyone else.

This situation is not unique to the SBC. No CUSA member has ever turned down an offer from the AAC, and no CUSA member ever will. That's just how things are.

There you go again BR, speaking in absolutes........it's as though you think recent past will always be an indicator of the distant future. I assure you, that's not necessarily the case.

BR, do you believe the fortunes of individual teams rise and fall? Of course you do. Do you believe the fortunes of individual conferences rise and fall? I know you do.

In football, C-USA finished first last year, dead last this year amongst the G5's. I believe it was 2013 when we were the G4's that the Belt finished first. Based solely on athletic budgets and facilities there's little doubt that the AAC has a lead on the rest of us, but for all practical purposes, the MAC, and especialy C-USA and Sunbelt, are identical and I'd challenge anyone to argue otherwise. And for your conference and mine, whether it's basketball or baseball, the same can be also said.

None of us knows what the future holds. Having said that, it's not inconceivable that C-USA finds itself in dire straits one day and sees schools looking for the door, even if the door leads to the SunBelt. You know I'm right because when the WAC collapsed around you, you guys were looking for the door, ANY door.

No doubt about it, a conference can go to hell in a hand basket very quickly. I lived through it once and I have no desire to do it again. While there is nothing that says that anyone in the SBC has to leave for CUSA, every SBC member ever offered by CUSA has accepted. Everybody knows that if they turn down an invitation to join CUSA, that invitation will likely be extended to some other SBC member that would likely take it. At least that's how it went down for us in the WAC. Who knows? If things heat up in realignment again, I suppose we'll find out soon enough what SBC members will do.

One thing I learned as that whole scenario in the WAC played out was that first and foremost, schools always look out for their own interests. Fresno, Utah State, SJSU, Nevada, Hawaii, NMSU, Idaho, LA Tech, UTSA, and TX State all agreed, in writing, to stay or leave as a group. That agreement flew out the window as soon as the MWC offered Fresno and Nevada, as both said "see ya", and were out the door in a flash.

This is why I think that CUSA would make a preemptive move if it starts to look like we'll lose members to the MWC and/or the AAC. I think our initial move to 14 members was made for just that purpose, as I believe that the members of CUSA felt at that time, like we were going to lose two more members to the AAC. A move to a membership of 14 was made as a hedge against a future raid.

ULL, USA, TX St, Ark St, GA St, GA Southern, and APP St all have strengths that would be attractive to CUSA. I believe that at least two of that group would bolt for CUSA, but that is simply my opinion.