I posted during the AAC tourney the boosters and the administration would not seek a coaching change. I also posted a couple of days ago I thought there was a good chance Josh would finish out his contract here. So far I’ve seen nothing to change my opinion.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Tiger basketball fell off the radar screen and all the focus went into football. And speaking of football the powers-that-be allowed it to be a bottom feeder for several consecutive decades, so don’t say it can’t happen.

(07-10-2015 11:52 PM)jgardne Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:26 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:07 PM)jgardne Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:00 PM)jgardne Wrote:  the lost revenue from Pastner being here exceeds the cost of buying out his contract. I don't know what season ticket sales are, but say we're down 3000 seats. If the average required contribution to buy those seats is 1000, that's 3 million right there. That doesn't even take into account lost revenue of the actual cost of tickets, concessions, gameday ticket purchases, merchandise etc.

If I can figure it out this quickly some bean counter at Memphis can sure as sh!t see that. And it will get worse if we tank this season, even less will renew. No, we don't need the boosters because the athletic department will be hemorrhaging cash and will have no choice but to pony up a lot for the buyout

If these numbers are correct and the revenue difference being so extreme, you could imagine a scenario where the administration covers the cost of the buyout to stop the blood loss, the boosters then go out and make a wow hire. Say you hire Pearl at 3.5 million/season. If the boosters are already on the hook paying Pastner 2.7 million, so since the University covers that they're only adding 800k to get Pearl. You'll get some new money in for that.

Then, the pearl hire re-excites the fanbase and a large chunk of those 3000 lost tickets are renewed. That extra revenue covers the athletic department buying out Pastner and the athletic department breaks even on it all.

The enormity of the disaster may actually enable a huge money hire if both boosters and athletic department think proactively.

Now if the university is short-sighted and says "we can't afford to do anything because we've lost all this money on ticket sales" then yes, we're screwed

Sounds like a fantastic plan; let's do it!

$14 million - Pearl 4 year contract
$10.6 million - Pastner buyout
$5 million - Pearl buyout

$29.6 million for basketball coaches for the next 4 years. I am thinking the same thing you are. That is extremely affordable. We can't afford not to do it. I hope our university doesn't end up being short sighted.

Obviously you don't understand economics since you base your argument on looking at expenses only and not revenue also. First, the buyout for pearl would be 4 million next year and, in all honesty, probably negotiable down quite a bit.

the 10.6 million is already owed, so it's not a new cost, and you're assuming this is also non-negotiable, which is also probably is. Regardless, it's a sunk cost and shouldn't factor in to our discussion

If, in your worse case scenario it costs 18 million over 4 years for pearl, and assuming we really pay 3.5 million/year, which is literally just a number I pulled out of my a$$ (I can recognize when I do those things unlike you), that's 4.5 million per year of new money required. What will the lost revenue be if ticket sales continue to decline? Probably more than 4.5 million/year. Again, using the 3000 ticket example above, let's give those season tickets an average cost of $800/ticket , which is basically the median ticket cost. That's 2.4 million.

3 mil +2.4 mil=5.4 million, which is 900k greater than your cost of hiring Pearl, so you've already made money not including all the ancillary revenue (parking, concessions, merchandise etc etc)

Prior to last year the economics wouldn't work because season ticket sales were strong and you weren't going to find a lot of new revenue. Now, you've lost so much revenue it's created the economic condition where moving on from Pastner is a net positive.

I would guess somewhere around 2000 tickets is the break even point for moving on from Pastner all things considered. We can have a more grounded discussion when and if we get some season ticket sale numbers from the ticket office

Do we get concessions and parking or the do the Grizz?

(07-10-2015 11:52 PM)jgardne Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:26 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:07 PM)jgardne Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:00 PM)jgardne Wrote:  the lost revenue from Pastner being here exceeds the cost of buying out his contract. I don't know what season ticket sales are, but say we're down 3000 seats. If the average required contribution to buy those seats is 1000, that's 3 million right there. That doesn't even take into account lost revenue of the actual cost of tickets, concessions, gameday ticket purchases, merchandise etc.

If I can figure it out this quickly some bean counter at Memphis can sure as sh!t see that. And it will get worse if we tank this season, even less will renew. No, we don't need the boosters because the athletic department will be hemorrhaging cash and will have no choice but to pony up a lot for the buyout

If these numbers are correct and the revenue difference being so extreme, you could imagine a scenario where the administration covers the cost of the buyout to stop the blood loss, the boosters then go out and make a wow hire. Say you hire Pearl at 3.5 million/season. If the boosters are already on the hook paying Pastner 2.7 million, so since the University covers that they're only adding 800k to get Pearl. You'll get some new money in for that.

Then, the pearl hire re-excites the fanbase and a large chunk of those 3000 lost tickets are renewed. That extra revenue covers the athletic department buying out Pastner and the athletic department breaks even on it all.

The enormity of the disaster may actually enable a huge money hire if both boosters and athletic department think proactively.

Now if the university is short-sighted and says "we can't afford to do anything because we've lost all this money on ticket sales" then yes, we're screwed

Sounds like a fantastic plan; let's do it!

$14 million - Pearl 4 year contract
$10.6 million - Pastner buyout
$5 million - Pearl buyout

$29.6 million for basketball coaches for the next 4 years. I am thinking the same thing you are. That is extremely affordable. We can't afford not to do it. I hope our university doesn't end up being short sighted.

Obviously you don't understand economics since you base your argument on looking at expenses only and not revenue also. First, the buyout for pearl would be 4 million next year and, in all honesty, probably negotiable down quite a bit.

the 10.6 million is already owed, so it's not a new cost, and you're assuming this is also non-negotiable, which is also probably is. Regardless, it's a sunk cost and shouldn't factor in to our discussion

If, in your worse case scenario it costs 18 million over 4 years for pearl, and assuming we really pay 3.5 million/year, which is literally just a number I pulled out of my a$$ (I can recognize when I do those things unlike you), that's 4.5 million per year of new money required. What will the lost revenue be if ticket sales continue to decline? Probably more than 4.5 million/year. Again, using the 3000 ticket example above, let's give those season tickets an average cost of $800/ticket , which is basically the median ticket cost. That's 2.4 million.

3 mil +2.4 mil=5.4 million, which is 900k greater than your cost of hiring Pearl, so you've already made money not including all the ancillary revenue (parking, concessions, merchandise etc etc)

Prior to last year the economics wouldn't work because season ticket sales were strong and you weren't going to find a lot of new revenue. Now, you've lost so much revenue it's created the economic condition where moving on from Pastner is a net positive.

I would guess somewhere around 2000 tickets is the break even point for moving on from Pastner all things considered. We can have a more grounded discussion when and if we get some season ticket sale numbers from the ticket office

The buyout for Pearl is $5 million in the first two years. Obviously you don't understand math, or can't read or both, so you are looking at $4.5 million per year, over the course of the first 4 years. You are also assuming that Pearl won't get a raise even though between Cal and Pastner they probably got 8 raises over the last 15 years.

Now we get to who is paying. The school will lose this, the school will lose that. If the boosters don't pay, they don't pay $30 million, and more than half of that would go to a coach who most would see as a ticking time bomb, AND...the money is needed for football.

(07-11-2015 12:45 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:52 PM)jgardne Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:26 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:07 PM)jgardne Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:00 PM)jgardne Wrote:  the lost revenue from Pastner being here exceeds the cost of buying out his contract. I don't know what season ticket sales are, but say we're down 3000 seats. If the average required contribution to buy those seats is 1000, that's 3 million right there. That doesn't even take into account lost revenue of the actual cost of tickets, concessions, gameday ticket purchases, merchandise etc.

If I can figure it out this quickly some bean counter at Memphis can sure as sh!t see that. And it will get worse if we tank this season, even less will renew. No, we don't need the boosters because the athletic department will be hemorrhaging cash and will have no choice but to pony up a lot for the buyout

If these numbers are correct and the revenue difference being so extreme, you could imagine a scenario where the administration covers the cost of the buyout to stop the blood loss, the boosters then go out and make a wow hire. Say you hire Pearl at 3.5 million/season. If the boosters are already on the hook paying Pastner 2.7 million, so since the University covers that they're only adding 800k to get Pearl. You'll get some new money in for that.

Then, the pearl hire re-excites the fanbase and a large chunk of those 3000 lost tickets are renewed. That extra revenue covers the athletic department buying out Pastner and the athletic department breaks even on it all.

The enormity of the disaster may actually enable a huge money hire if both boosters and athletic department think proactively.

Now if the university is short-sighted and says "we can't afford to do anything because we've lost all this money on ticket sales" then yes, we're screwed

Sounds like a fantastic plan; let's do it!

$14 million - Pearl 4 year contract
$10.6 million - Pastner buyout
$5 million - Pearl buyout

$29.6 million for basketball coaches for the next 4 years. I am thinking the same thing you are. That is extremely affordable. We can't afford not to do it. I hope our university doesn't end up being short sighted.

Obviously you don't understand economics since you base your argument on looking at expenses only and not revenue also. First, the buyout for pearl would be 4 million next year and, in all honesty, probably negotiable down quite a bit.

the 10.6 million is already owed, so it's not a new cost, and you're assuming this is also non-negotiable, which is also probably is. Regardless, it's a sunk cost and shouldn't factor in to our discussion

If, in your worse case scenario it costs 18 million over 4 years for pearl, and assuming we really pay 3.5 million/year, which is literally just a number I pulled out of my a$$ (I can recognize when I do those things unlike you), that's 4.5 million per year of new money required. What will the lost revenue be if ticket sales continue to decline? Probably more than 4.5 million/year. Again, using the 3000 ticket example above, let's give those season tickets an average cost of $800/ticket , which is basically the median ticket cost. That's 2.4 million.

3 mil +2.4 mil=5.4 million, which is 900k greater than your cost of hiring Pearl, so you've already made money not including all the ancillary revenue (parking, concessions, merchandise etc etc)

Prior to last year the economics wouldn't work because season ticket sales were strong and you weren't going to find a lot of new revenue. Now, you've lost so much revenue it's created the economic condition where moving on from Pastner is a net positive.

I would guess somewhere around 2000 tickets is the break even point for moving on from Pastner all things considered. We can have a more grounded discussion when and if we get some season ticket sale numbers from the ticket office

The buyout for Pearl is $5 million in the first two years. Obviously you don't understand math, or can't read or both, so you are looking at $4.5 million per year, over the course of the first 4 years. You are also assuming that Pearl won't get a raise even though between Cal and Pastner they probably got 8 raises over the last 15 years.

Now we get to who is paying. The school will lose this, the school will lose that. If the boosters don't pay, they don't pay $30 million, and more than half of that would go to a coach who most would see as a ticking time bomb, AND...the money is needed for football.

Pearls buyout is 5 million for the first 2 years but drops to 4 on April 15, 2016, so if you hire him after that date, which is probably 1 week after ncaa championship it's 4. I assume the school would save a million and wait til then

(07-10-2015 02:09 PM)3601 Wrote:  He was on the radio around 11:30. Said the boosters are tapped out of cash.

Who cares what Dan Wolken says. Pastner will not last two more years. He will prob leave after this year on his own. His quality of life at this point is not worth the money. He has to miserable. He gets destroyed everyday and it's only going to get worse. He will be coaching Dartmouth or something soon. He will go where there is not such a big microscope and people don't care as much. He doesn't handle the pressure very well.

(07-11-2015 12:43 AM)BealeStreetTiger Wrote:  I posted during the AAC tourney the boosters and the administration would not seek a coaching change. I also posted a couple of days ago I thought there was a good chance Josh would finish out his contract here. So far I’ve seen nothing to change my opinion.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Tiger basketball fell off the radar screen and all the focus went into football. And speaking of football the powers-that-be allowed it to be a bottom feeder for several consecutive decades, so don’t say it can’t happen.

If that happens they will end up playing games in the Elma Roane field house cause there will not be any fans left. U say they can't afford for him to leave. I don't think they can afford for him to stay. Ticket sales will continue to fall, donations too. Interest will fade and people will just put all their resources into the Grizz. If he coaches out his contract Memphis basketball will prob never recover.

Wolken might have spoken with some boosters who are tapped out. However, he didn't speak with the ones who are not…and will pay.

(07-11-2015 03:30 AM)jason80 Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 02:09 PM)3601 Wrote:  He was on the radio around 11:30. Said the boosters are tapped out of cash.

Who cares what Dan Wolken says. Pastner will not last two more years. He will prob leave after this year on his own. His quality of life at this point is not worth the money. He has to miserable. He gets destroyed everyday and it's only going to get worse. He will be coaching Dartmouth or something soon. He will go where there is not such a big microscope and people don't care as much. He doesn't handle the pressure very well.

lol quality of life dude makes 2.65 million a year

(07-11-2015 03:30 AM)jason80 Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 02:09 PM)3601 Wrote:  He was on the radio around 11:30. Said the boosters are tapped out of cash.

Who cares what Dan Wolken says. Pastner will not last two more years. He will prob leave after this year on his own. His quality of life at this point is not worth the money. He has to miserable. He gets destroyed everyday and it's only going to get worse. He will be coaching Dartmouth or something soon. He will go where there is not such a big microscope and people don't care as much. He doesn't handle the pressure very well.

Knowing that he has over $10 Million guaranteed in the coming years...I bet the opposite.

Will another team offer him $10 Million plus guaranteed to jump ship? If not...I'm sure Josh will stay at Memphis until the AD gives him a huge 7 or 8 figure check and says "Thank you for your efforts and work over the last few years and wish you great success with your next endeavor".

There is a distinction between what the university owes JP on his contract and what portion the university actually pays out of BB revenues. That makes a difference in the economics faced by the university that I do not believe anyone who doesn't know firsthand would fully understand. Further to my point, notwithstanding the arguments here and elsewhere in print relative to the obligations of keeping & paying JP versus the damage to the program for each day he remains coach, nobody outside of those having the requisite inside knowledge is in a position to know or even understand the economics of JP being the coach versus an alternative. But rest assured, there is a group with such knowledge and they have been & are continually analysing the pertinent information such that the decision to make a coaching change will happen when & if it is economically beneficial.

(07-10-2015 11:18 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 09:17 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  Well, they could move his office to the men's toilet, assign him to the midnight shift, give him a 1985 Plymouth Reliant for his official Tiger business car, book his recruiting trips on slow freighters through the Panama Canal -- get creative. You can force the issue on most any contract that was designed with consenting parties in mind. Let him be the one who has to wring his hands agonizing over whether it's worth it financially instead of the administration/boosters for a change. He's already put us in the toilet. Turnabout is fair play.

That would be excellent strategy. If we did that I'm sure elite coaches would be BEGGING to come here when the job opens up. Nice to see some of our fans are forward thinkers who see the big picture.

Why do you think the team flys commercial now, buddy

(07-11-2015 09:00 AM)Bluebeard Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:18 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 09:17 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  Well, they could move his office to the men's toilet, assign him to the midnight shift, give him a 1985 Plymouth Reliant for his official Tiger business car, book his recruiting trips on slow freighters through the Panama Canal -- get creative. You can force the issue on most any contract that was designed with consenting parties in mind. Let him be the one who has to wring his hands agonizing over whether it's worth it financially instead of the administration/boosters for a change. He's already put us in the toilet. Turnabout is fair play.

That would be excellent strategy. If we did that I'm sure elite coaches would be BEGGING to come here when the job opens up. Nice to see some of our fans are forward thinkers who see the big picture.

Why do you think the team flys commercial now, buddy

Glad you agree with him. I would be disappointed if you didn't. Still working on that top 5 list or is it too challenging for you?

(07-11-2015 09:05 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 09:00 AM)Bluebeard Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:18 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 09:17 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  Well, they could move his office to the men's toilet, assign him to the midnight shift, give him a 1985 Plymouth Reliant for his official Tiger business car, book his recruiting trips on slow freighters through the Panama Canal -- get creative. You can force the issue on most any contract that was designed with consenting parties in mind. Let him be the one who has to wring his hands agonizing over whether it's worth it financially instead of the administration/boosters for a change. He's already put us in the toilet. Turnabout is fair play.

That would be excellent strategy. If we did that I'm sure elite coaches would be BEGGING to come here when the job opens up. Nice to see some of our fans are forward thinkers who see the big picture.

Why do you think the team flys commercial now, buddy

Glad you agree with him. I would be disappointed if you didn't. Still working on that top 5 list or is it too challenging for you?

I'm not working on anything, buddy.

Nice to see you're still thinking about it doe.

(07-11-2015 09:10 AM)Bluebeard Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 09:05 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 09:00 AM)Bluebeard Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:18 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 09:17 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  Well, they could move his office to the men's toilet, assign him to the midnight shift, give him a 1985 Plymouth Reliant for his official Tiger business car, book his recruiting trips on slow freighters through the Panama Canal -- get creative. You can force the issue on most any contract that was designed with consenting parties in mind. Let him be the one who has to wring his hands agonizing over whether it's worth it financially instead of the administration/boosters for a change. He's already put us in the toilet. Turnabout is fair play.

That would be excellent strategy. If we did that I'm sure elite coaches would be BEGGING to come here when the job opens up. Nice to see some of our fans are forward thinkers who see the big picture.

Why do you think the team flys commercial now, buddy

Glad you agree with him. I would be disappointed if you didn't. Still working on that top 5 list or is it too challenging for you?

I'm not working on anything, buddy.

Nice to see you're still thinking about it doe.

Glad to see you agree with him.

Run rabbit run.

(07-11-2015 09:27 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 09:10 AM)Bluebeard Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 09:05 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 09:00 AM)Bluebeard Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 11:18 PM)Stammers Wrote:  That would be excellent strategy. If we did that I'm sure elite coaches would be BEGGING to come here when the job opens up. Nice to see some of our fans are forward thinkers who see the big picture.

Why do you think the team flys commercial now, buddy

Glad you agree with him. I would be disappointed if you didn't. Still working on that top 5 list or is it too challenging for you?

I'm not working on anything, buddy.

Nice to see you're still thinking about it doe.

Glad to see you agree with him.

Run rabbit run.

You creep me out.

If Pastner leaves decides to leave on his own, which he may, the two scenarios would be he's taking another job (zero buyout) or he's sick of being a target and cuts a deal with the boosters to go ahead and leave for X dollars.

Remember that financially he's (probably) already pretty well set so he would look at this thing a little differently than most of us would.

Depending on who wants what and how bad they want it EVERYTHING is always negotiable.

(07-11-2015 10:07 AM)bluebacker Wrote:  If Pastner leaves decides to leave on his own, which he may, the two scenarios would be he's taking another job (zero buyout) or he's sick of being a target and cuts a deal with the boosters to go ahead and leave for X dollars.

Remember that financially he's (probably) already pretty well set so he would look at this thing a little differently than most of us would.

Depending on who wants what and how bad they want it EVERYTHING is always negotiable.

If he were like most of us on this board (well over 40 with no experience making seven figures in any given year), he would be highly inclined to stick it out no matter what for the guaranteed money regardless of any future comparable income potential or almost certain irreparable damage to his reputation. He's not, and he fancies himself a high-level coach. That is the only thing that gives me any hope that Wolken is peeing in his hat on this one. How ironic is that? My only hope for our basketball program lies in the possibility that our coach is delusional.

(07-11-2015 11:07 AM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 10:07 AM)bluebacker Wrote:  If Pastner leaves decides to leave on his own, which he may, the two scenarios would be he's taking another job (zero buyout) or he's sick of being a target and cuts a deal with the boosters to go ahead and leave for X dollars.

Remember that financially he's (probably) already pretty well set so he would look at this thing a little differently than most of us would.

Depending on who wants what and how bad they want it EVERYTHING is always negotiable.

If he were like most of us on this board (well over 40 with no experience making seven figures in any given year), he would be highly inclined to stick it out no matter what for the guaranteed money regardless of any future comparable income potential or almost certain irreparable damage to his reputation. He's not, and he fancies himself a high-level coach. That is the only thing that gives me any hope that Wolken is peeing in his hat on this one. How ironic is that? My only hope for our basketball program lies in the possibility that our coach is delusional.

There's one more hope....a wife. They talk ya down when you're delusional, they light a fire under your azz when you're stuck and they call for reinforcements when you're both.

(07-11-2015 11:37 AM)snowtiger Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 11:07 AM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 10:07 AM)bluebacker Wrote:  If Pastner leaves decides to leave on his own, which he may, the two scenarios would be he's taking another job (zero buyout) or he's sick of being a target and cuts a deal with the boosters to go ahead and leave for X dollars.

Remember that financially he's (probably) already pretty well set so he would look at this thing a little differently than most of us would.

Depending on who wants what and how bad they want it EVERYTHING is always negotiable.

If he were like most of us on this board (well over 40 with no experience making seven figures in any given year), he would be highly inclined to stick it out no matter what for the guaranteed money regardless of any future comparable income potential or almost certain irreparable damage to his reputation. He's not, and he fancies himself a high-level coach. That is the only thing that gives me any hope that Wolken is peeing in his hat on this one. How ironic is that? My only hope for our basketball program lies in the possibility that our coach is delusional.

There's one more hope....a wife. They talk ya down when you're delusional, they light a fire under your azz when you're stuck and they call for reinforcements when you're both.

It is his wife and kids for whom I truly feel sorry. They didn't choose this, but they have to live with it. Loyalty sometimes doesn't come cheap.

(07-11-2015 11:43 AM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 11:37 AM)snowtiger Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 11:07 AM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 10:07 AM)bluebacker Wrote:  If Pastner leaves decides to leave on his own, which he may, the two scenarios would be he's taking another job (zero buyout) or he's sick of being a target and cuts a deal with the boosters to go ahead and leave for X dollars.

Remember that financially he's (probably) already pretty well set so he would look at this thing a little differently than most of us would.

Depending on who wants what and how bad they want it EVERYTHING is always negotiable.

If he were like most of us on this board (well over 40 with no experience making seven figures in any given year), he would be highly inclined to stick it out no matter what for the guaranteed money regardless of any future comparable income potential or almost certain irreparable damage to his reputation. He's not, and he fancies himself a high-level coach. That is the only thing that gives me any hope that Wolken is peeing in his hat on this one. How ironic is that? My only hope for our basketball program lies in the possibility that our coach is delusional.

There's one more hope....a wife. They talk ya down when you're delusional, they light a fire under your azz when you're stuck and they call for reinforcements when you're both.

It is his wife and kids for whom I truly feel sorry. They didn't choose this, but they have to live with it. Loyalty sometimes doesn't come cheap.

They just had another little girl last week. Congrats to the family!