JRsec
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RE: ESPN, the SEC, the ACC, Texas, and OU (LONG POST)
(07-03-2015 03:33 PM)ken d Wrote: (07-03-2015 01:03 PM)JRsec Wrote: (07-03-2015 12:03 PM)ken d Wrote: (07-03-2015 09:19 AM)orangefan Wrote: Great thread. A few observations.
The B12's GOR expires two years before the ACC's (2025 vs. 2027). The end of these GORs opens the door to the next potential round of conference realignment. It is interesting that the B12, which is the most unstable of the P5 conferences, is the one that comes in play at the earliest date. Another important date, though, is the expiration of the University of Texas LHN deal with ESPN, which ends in 2031.
Looking at the P5 conferences, it is pretty clear that the B1G, the SEC and the P12 are absolutely secure - they will continue to exist with their existing core members indefinitely. Therefore, there continues to be some gravity for some members of the ACC and B12 to consider moving to one of these other conferences to ensure their long term position in college athletics.
On the other hand, it seems unlikely that the P5 would ever shrink below 4 conferences. Like two people in the woods trying to outrun a bear, the B12 and ACC really only have to outlast the other conference to survive.
Really, Texas is the prize in all of this. Whatever Texas chooses to do is going to be the first domino to fall.
My guess is that both the B1G and the P12 are going to have significant interest in Texas, as they did 5 years ago. I believe the SEC is likely comfortable with their existing position in the State of Texas with A&M on board. They may entertain an approach by Texas, but they are not going to chase them. The other members of the B12, except perhaps OU, are likely to do whatever it takes to keep Texas on board. If the CFP landscape evolves so that independents can have reasonable access to the NY6/CFP bowls, Texas may want to take their football independent, in which case the ACC may be a good landing spot.
Since it came closest to happening last time, my guess is that if Texas does leave the B12, it would be in a group of 4 schools (UT, TTU, OU, and OSU) to the P12. This might establish 16 as the new target conference size. The SEC and B1G are both interested in expanding into the States of North Carolina and Virginia. The B1G would still love to get Notre Dame and was rumored to have interest in Georgia Tech at one point. Of the schools left from the B12, KU would appear to be the only one of potential interest to the B1G.
I personally don't see the SEC or B1G being interested in anyone from the State of North Carolina except UNC. I also don't see UNC ever splitting from Duke. Would either the SEC or B1G be willing to take UNC and Duke as a pair? In the State of Virginia, I do see the SEC interested in either UVA or VT, but the B1G only interested in UVA.
UVA, UNC and Duke are closely aligned and are core members of the ACC. If they all want to stick together, would either the SEC or B1G take them as a group and move to 18? I also see VT as very committed to staying with UVA. I would only see them leaving if UVA were leaving also - so that if UVA were going to the B1G, VT would head for the SEC in a SECond, and the SEC would likely take them.
Curious about folks thoughts.
While I think it is extremely unlikely that this group would move together to either the B1G or the SEC, that alone would probably cause enough dominoes to fall to kill the ACC. Consider this possibility: These four all go as a bloc to the SEC (though unlikely, the SEC can stand the hit to their football depth better than anybody, and this bloc would pull down the average of any P5 conference they were to move to). They are now at 18, and for all practical purposes, done feeding.
The other big dog, the B1G, goes to 16 by adding AAU schools Pitt and Kansas. This leaves both the Big 12 and ACC at nine members. If the Big 12 took 7 ACC teams (Syracuse, Louisville, NC State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Miami) they could add them to West Virginia in a solid eastern division, leaving the 6 Texoma schools plus Kansas State and Iowa State in the west. Now they have 16, the B1G has 16, the SEC has 18 and the PAC has 12 - a total of 62 teams.
With only BC and Wake Forest to vote no, the other ACC schools can vote to dissolve prior to leaving, avoiding all exit fees and cancelling the league's GoR agreement.
It's possible to wind up with a similar result if the four go to the B1G instead of the SEC, but if the SEC goes for FSU and Clemson, GT and Miami become less attractive to the Big 12. That could gum up the works, leaving too few ACC schools willing to vote for dissolution. Somehow, the four southern ACC schools would have to go to the Big 12 as a bloc. If the SEC settled for NC State and Louisville, then the B12 could choose between Syracuse and Cincinnati for its 16th team (Pitt, in this scenario, would be #15).
That's an interesting mix, but I'm not sure that Virginia Tech has to go with Duke, Virginia and North Carolina, but I certainly think Syracuse could (would not have to) go with them. Either of that three plus one could go to either the SEC or Big 10. I've long suspected that if the ACC ever did dissolve and those three were headed to the Big 10 that Notre Dame would finally throw in the towel and go as well. The SEC would still be interested in Virginia Tech, N.C. State, and quite possibly FSU and Clemson to consolidate the area. Even at 20 with Louisville and Georgia Tech, as it was suggested (Louisville excepted and Miami in their place) by Jackie Sherrill way back in 1991, it could make geographical sense, but would be hard pressed to make the other kind of cents.
Given the market bump that the SEC received from Virginia Tech and N.C. State there is a strong chance we would simply choose to stay at 16. Only a brand like Florida State would be tempting at that point. But, then who do we add to go with them if we don't go west to do so? Maybe Georgia Tech for academics, maybe Clemson for a strong regional brand, but that's about it. Quite honestly Slive had worked out a contingency that worked. The SEC would simply take Duke and UNC and stop at 16. If Virginia and Virginia Tech went to the Big 10 then fine. This was discussed at length 3 years ago on some of the SEC sites. It wasn't popular, but it wasn't unpopular either. That way the SEC and Big 10 stop at 16, but not because it is a magical number, just a more profitable one, unless of course somebody loads up on brands.
One reason I see this kind of scenario as the longest of longshots is that I can't think of a single reason why those four linchpin schools would act preemptively to join the SEC. I could imagine how they might move as a reaction to some other moves. But not as a first strike.
There are threads that posit the breakup of the Big 12 by giving enough of its members a safe landing that you could muster a dissolution vote. But in all those scenarios, there's a lot of dependence on the idea that some predator would be willing to take schools they really don't want in order to make it work. Specifically, that means the PAC 12 would expand eastward by accepting the B12 schools the B1G and SEC don't want. Why would they do that? And if they get to pick first, what's left makes little sense for the other P5's.
And while, in the scenario I posed, most if not all of the ACC schools that find a P5 home add significant value to the conferences, none of it happens unless the schools least likely to put dissolution into motion make the first move. I have yet to see any scenario that would convince me there will be any significant moves for several years. The big question is: do we have the stamina to keep posting more scenarios for that long, or will realignment boards like this go dormant first?
The catalyst will be simple Ken D. No network coupled with a growing chasm in revenue between the Big 10 / SEC and the ACC that borders both. If any school, especially when state funding is being cut, and Federal grant money is getting tighter, faces real budget cuts while one conference away athletic programs are making 8 figures more the desire is planted. So in that case the most desirable schools leave first and negotiate to bring along those most important to them in their associations. So if UNC decides to make 8 figures more and they want Virginia and Duke to travel with them voila. Then it's everyone for themselves after that. But then there is no history of selfish conduct by these institutions to support such a hypothesis is there.........well maybe just.......a helluva lot!
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2015 04:00 PM by JRsec.)
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