JRsec
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RE: Did Boren just threaten UT?
(07-04-2015 01:24 PM)BaylorFerg Wrote: (07-04-2015 12:55 PM)JRsec Wrote: (07-04-2015 12:40 PM)BaylorFerg Wrote: (07-03-2015 08:17 PM)JRsec Wrote: What if Boren is starting Big 12 expansion in earnest. Cincinnati gets an invitation, Houston gets an invitation, Central Florida gets an invitation and then they debate who the 14th might be either Colorado State, or Memphis or somebody else will get them to 14 schools. Then in August around the second week Oklahoma announces they are leaving for the SEC, Kansas announces that they are going to the Big 10, and Texas declares for either the ACC or PAC. What then if ESPN and FOX honors the remainder of the Big 12 contract at present rates. The conference after having added three then loses 3 but remains at 10. There is no monetary damage to those who remain. Having Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas out of the picture and assuring the survival of the ACC should Texas go there, or if not should Notre Dame join in full, then each conference is free to search on their own for #16. Maybe the SEC takes a second school from Texas. Maybe the PAC moves on three more giving them broader markets. Maybe the Big 10 looks at Iowa State or even Connecticut. This could be the most practical way to satisfy the Gordian knot that is the placement of the remaining Big 12 schools. For every school subsequently taken a replacement is found until there are still 10 Big 12 schools all getting paid for the duration of the contract. It would be a major leg up for many of those schools who would be new faces, and a legal way to escape those who otherwise are left behind.
Big 10:
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
At 16 they add either Connecticut or Iowa State
SEC:
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
At 16 they add either Baylor, or Kansas State
ACC:
Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State
At 16 they add West Virginia
PAC 10:
Arizona, Arizona State, California, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal
Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
Colorado, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah
At 16 they add either Kansas State or T.C.U.
It's a lot easier that way.
How is that easier or more cost effective for ESPN and Fox than just finding homes for all 10 Big 12 schools? By doing what you suggest they are promoting a number of schools temporarily to P5 status only to get rid of them at a later date. What happens when one of those temp schools wins a national title. You think you have problems finding homes now, you really will then. It is far easier to find homes for these existing P5 teams then to try some temporary solution. The purpose of these moves for the conferences is increased TV money. If the TV networks are going to have to pay more, why keep paying for the watered down version of the Big 12? Just move the existing Big 12 schools to the 4 conferences pay them the extra amount and get rid of an entire contract. On top of that you can then push the extra round of playoffs by having the 4 conference champs games that everyone likes to talk about be the 1st round of the playoffs and make even more money.
Legalities I suppose. The present Big 12 contract is for a minimum of 10 schools. If you can't place at least 8 then by addition and subtraction with FOX and ESPN each receiving added monetary benefit through the placement of Kansas in the Big 10 or Oklahoma in the SEC for what in the future will be a modest sum they can simply pay the new (watered down) 10 schools the current rate of pay and you avoid 1. the voiding of the contract which could lead to damage claims and 2. diminished payouts which could lead to damage claims. If the remaining schools of the changing Big 12 do no suffer contractual or monetary harm for the remainder of their contract then those leaving suffer little if any penalty, so long as the networks cover for them.
Right now if all 10 schools are to be placed then this is what has to happen:
The PAC has to get Texas and agree to take three other Big 12 schools. But the PAC may well take a pass on Baylor.
The Big 10 would have to get at least Kansas and then bite the bullet on Iowa State which isn't likely. Iowa State is too remote for the ACC and not a cultural fit for the SEC.
The ACC would have to take West Virginia and an outlier. That's not happening either. They might well accept the Eers but the single outlier, not named Texas is a no go.
The SEC would have to take Oklahoma to even participate. Then we would have to agree to Kansas State, not exactly a fit, a second Oklahoma school, while not optimal perhaps at least justifiable, or a second Texas school, I would guess Baylor.
So here's where we are so far:
PAC: Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
SEC: Oklahoma and Baylor
ACC: West Virginia only.
Big 10: Kansas, and maybe if you are very very lucky Iowa State
Right now it looks to me that Kansas State and Iowa State could be out in the cold. It is also possible if the SEC takes both Oklahoma's and the PAC rejects Baylor that Kansas State is suddenly in the PAC mix and Baylor is out.
Eight dissolves the conference, but it doesn't buy everyone a landing spot like H1 claims.
The new Big 12 would become a Southern version of the AAC and would become a best of the G5 and would provide content to FOX at a reduced rate from the old contract when it expired. But it would provide the best of the G5 to make their case for inclusion when the P4 expands again and eventually they will for niche markets.
In your previous post you had all of the schools already going to the other conferences in some capacity. Except now you are elevating more schools to a P5 conference that the networks have to pay instead of just paying a little more to the other 4 conference to take a school that might not have been high on their list.
You had the following listed originally, this wasn't my break down.
B1G: Kansas and Iowa St.
SEC: Oklahoma and Baylor
ACC: WVU
PAC: Texas, Tech, Oklahom St, TCU/KSU
Why not just put KSU in the PAC and give the ACC TCU, another private school with a solid football program and access to the DFW market for their network. TCU was already planning to go to the Big East with some of those schools so they must have been good with them. Every conference gets 1 school they are happy with and at least 1 they might not be, but the money from the networks will be enough to make them happy. The ACC gets the Sugar Bowl deal that the Big 12 has and no one is left out.
Please understand I would rather it be that way. It' just not shaping up to have that outcome. What I was suggesting was just let the top brands get parsed and then let the conference figure out who the want. If we just have Oklahoma and there are no other P4 teams available then the SEC will be forced to choose between a second Texas school (Baylor most likely), a new market (Kansas State) but I don't see it, or possibly (Oklahoma State) if they aren't taken and OU insists. I would think the PAC wise to take Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. But you just don't know what Texas will insist upon.
I felt we were majorly remiss in the state of Florida not to have aggressively and with some concessions gone after F.S.U. just so our schools had a second shot at playing in Florida on years the Gators were either at their home, or not on the schedule. We'd be doubly stupid in my opinion not to take a second Texas school for the same reason. But admittedly taking OU is almost like taking a second Texas school.
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2015 02:06 PM by JRsec.)
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