(05-28-2015 07:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)rosewater Wrote:  I do not understand the numbers, so take this for what it is worth. P5 conferences receive close to 20 times the money as the AAC. Their ratings are not 20x better. A typical UC football game will draw between a .5 to a 1.0 This is 500,000 to 1mill viewers. A typical p5 opponent like NC State draws a 1.0 to 1.5. They draw about half a million more viewers per contest or 1/3 more of the viewership. Why this half million viewers makes a contract worth 20 times the AAC is a mystery to me.

First off, AAC gets more like 1/10 the money big boys get. not 1/20.

It cost a set amount of money for networks to put a game on. That price doesn't change dramatically whether it is a MAC game or a B10 game.
So if we get just under 1/2 the viewers we won't get 1/2 the money, because the profits for network are not cut in half, they are more likely cut by 2/3.
If we are drawing 40% of what big boys do, we should probably get 25 to 35% of what they are getting. That would put us in the 5 to 7 mil range.

Very well said. I agree completely. I do think the current value of the league in today's dollars is closer to the 4-6 range then where it is actually at. So if we are extending I hope to see a bump from that level and not the 2 million. We were vastly undervalued and people can talk until they are blue in the face but that is the truth. The turmoil wreaked havoc on the deal just like it did with the bowl lineup. You can say they can make amendments and provisions if teams leave but the reality is they simple may not want that content at all if the top 4 teams or whatever leave. Hence CBS dropping the MWC championship game. They simple didn't want it. So you are willing to risk less money because if you are stuck with a bad product you probably aren't going to use it or want it anyway. This is especially true for the bowls since they have no out really if the membership changes. Who are they going to lineup to play when most leagues have their bowl lineups set for the most part. So the membership uncertainty really crushed any dreams of a solid lineup.

With the MAC's new deal they got a bump on their current contract as part of the extension so hopefully something like that can be worked out. Like make the last two years 4 million or something, then hopefully we are in the 6-7 million range at a minimum. I think the league needs it to be high in order to compete with these other leagues long term.

Will be interesting to see what CUSA gets on their TV renewal this year versus current contract. They have flooded their league with former Sunbelt teams.

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 07:13 AM)FUB Wrote:  It needs to be at least 6 million that is fair value right now. anything less would be a death nail.

Knell

I am not talking bells I am talking coffins

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)rosewater Wrote:  between a .5 to a 1.0 This is 500,000 to 1mill viewers.

First off this statement is so incorrect it hurts.

Second off the demo rating does not equal the total viewers number.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

(05-28-2015 08:47 AM)PurpleReigns2012 Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)rosewater Wrote:  between a .5 to a 1.0 This is 500,000 to 1mill viewers.

First off this statement is so incorrect it hurts.

Second off the demo rating does not equal the total viewers number.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Rating is percentage share of timeslot viewers, right? So a .5 could be closer to 50,000 than 500,000 depending on the time slot.

(05-28-2015 08:47 AM)PurpleReigns2012 Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)rosewater Wrote:  between a .5 to a 1.0 This is 500,000 to 1mill viewers.

First off this statement is so incorrect it hurts.

Second off the demo rating does not equal the total viewers number.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Then enlighten us. Maybe you did not see the proviso, "Take it for what it is worth, I do not understand the numbers."

(05-28-2015 08:35 AM)baruna falls Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 06:50 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 06:13 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 06:04 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 11:55 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  For Aresco to comment on these few important AAC issues, tells me this league wll get a nice bump in TV revenue.

I say $6 mil to $10 mil

That ain't happening

Hopefully in the $5-6 million zone. The nBE with their terrible ratings get $4 million just for hoops. We have large schools like UCF with over 60k students and brands like Navy and UConn Basketball.

The nBE took advantage of Fox being run by the mentally handicapped. We MAY get $4.5M on our new contract, just no reason to go any higher for ESPN, because they won't have any competitors bidding against us and we don't have the market share to warrant any more than that. Fox won't throw another foray into the college sports market after how much money they've lost on the last two (Big 12 and Big East).

The problem with our conference is the localized level of our viewership, which is why that value is right. The higher value TV contracts are for conferences with National reach, and we don't have that as of yet as our three largest institutions (UCF, USF, and UC) are still relatively young in general in the case of UCF and USF and with regards to athletic interest in respect to UC, so they haven't built a large alumni base and our others are more metropolitan in their fan interest and we have four institutions with enrollment under 14,000 students, it just doesn't equate to a large uptick in media value unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I am here.

I disagree with the National reach part. Most fans are not cross Conference fans. SEC fans are SEC fans and located in the South, etc. The Power 5 receive their money because of their brand power within their region. I believe the pay for the AAC will go up, but only relative to the power of the brand, not our geo locations.

You're telling me you've never watched SEC games on CBS or the late night PAC-12 games? That's what I mean by national reach...those conferences will get "College Football Fans" not just SEC/B1G/Pac12 fans like what our conference will get more often than not.

As was last time, we are really going to be at the mercy of luck, timing, and what the other networks and conferences are doing. If there are a few interested networks, we might get a bigger bump. If Fox gets the B1G, that may help. If it's just ESPN again, they can (again) offer us beans, and tell us if we don't like it we can pound sand.

This isn't really 'fair market value' as the AAC detractors say... it's just simple reality.

That said, we are in a MUCH better position this round, as compared to last. A raise, yes... how much is TBD.

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 07:13 AM)FUB Wrote:  It needs to be at least 6 million that is fair value right now. anything less would be a death nail.

Knell

I'd prefer to sit, thank you. :-D

(05-28-2015 08:52 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 08:47 AM)PurpleReigns2012 Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)rosewater Wrote:  between a .5 to a 1.0 This is 500,000 to 1mill viewers.

First off this statement is so incorrect it hurts.

Second off the demo rating does not equal the total viewers number.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Rating is percentage share of timeslot viewers, right? So a .5 could be closer to 50,000 than 500,000 depending on the time slot.

(05-28-2015 08:52 AM)rosewater Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 08:47 AM)PurpleReigns2012 Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)rosewater Wrote:  between a .5 to a 1.0 This is 500,000 to 1mill viewers.

First off this statement is so incorrect it hurts.

Second off the demo rating does not equal the total viewers number.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Then enlighten us. Maybe you did not see the proviso, "Take it for what it is worth, I do not understand the numbers."

A 1.0 equals 1.27 million 18-49 viewers so a .5 is roughly (in my head) 513,500 18-49 viewers.

And please note I said 18-49 viewers as you kept insinuating that the demo rating coincided with the total viewers. Most games have at least 2-3 million total viewers with a .5-1.5 demo rating.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Say ESPN offers 2 or 3 million - what does Aresco do? Look to NBC --- again. FOX - who is already under the Big East contract? I guess the question is --- where is our leverage?

Even at $6mil we cant and wont keep up long term with the P5 and their $20+ per team.

So whether its $4, $5, or $6 it doesnt really matter in the long run.

(05-28-2015 09:01 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Even at $6mil we cant and wont keep up long term with the P5 and their $20+ per team.

So whether its $4, $5, or $6 it doesnt really matter in the long run.

Yep. And as I indicated in my last post the P5 schools will be making $25m per team instead of $20m so we will actually be slightly behind where we are today.

To have a fighting chance, we'd need to be in the 12-15 mil range. Who thinks that's happening? Now, to be the undisputed best of G5 (tallest midg...errr...little person), 5-8 would do it

(05-28-2015 08:47 AM)PurpleReigns2012 Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 07:18 AM)rosewater Wrote:  between a .5 to a 1.0 This is 500,000 to 1mill viewers.

First off this statement is so incorrect it hurts.

Second off the demo rating does not equal the total viewers number.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

My statement is not as incorrect as you lead on. Here are some figures from the last week of the season. Cincy/Houston in the 12:00 game on espn two drew 725000 viewers. Keep in mind 12:00. The 3:30 Big 12 game drew 1,146,000. Take the difference and you have 500,000 viewers. It is uncanny how close my original post was. Of course the Big 12 prime time game blows us out of the water, but my original post was limited to comparable schools.

http://sportstvratings.com/kansas-stateb...-2014/335/

There is a greater chance that ESPN convinces P5 leagues to take a few of the AAC schools than there is for the AAC to get a contract of $10 mil per school. That contract would have to be worth about $115M (assuming Navy makes $5M out of it).

Hypothetically speaking ESPN could throw UConn and Cinci to the ACC at $25M each, and UCF and USF to the Big 12 at $25M each and save $15M a year. We already saw this happen with the Big East. I think the AAC should hope for a comparable deal with ESPN to the Big East's with Fox. If we could get $5M with the exposure the league is currently receiving it would be a very positive development for the league.

It'll be very interesting as the MW TV contract ends in 3 years and shops itself out. Sounds like Aresco already wants ESPN from that article. (Is there that matching deal for the AAC TV contract?)
What network wants which conference (MW vs AAC) and for how much?

(05-28-2015 09:01 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Even at $6mil we cant and wont keep up long term with the P5 ....

We don't have to keep up with P5 revenue. We DO have to:

(1) have ENOUGH revenue to keep our programs in the black

(2) be well ahead of the rest of "G5"

(3) keep up with "P5" exposure

(05-28-2015 09:19 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  It'll be very interesting as the MW TV contract ends in 3 years and shops itself out. Sounds like Aresco already wants ESPN from that article. (Is there that matching deal for the AAC TV contract?)
What network wants which conference (MW vs AAC) and for how much?

ESPN reserves the Right of First Refusal on all of their TV Contracts, so yes, they'll have the ability to match anything, though I doubt there will be another viable offer on the table.

(05-28-2015 09:31 AM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 09:01 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Even at $6mil we cant and wont keep up long term with the P5 ....

We don't have to keep up with P5 revenue. We DO have to:

(1) have ENOUGH revenue to keep our programs in the black

(2) be well ahead of the rest of "G5"

(3) keep up with "P5" exposure

I disagree with all three of your points.
-Keeping our programs in the black should be a given not a goal/benchmark.
-Being the tallest midget is not my idea of success.
-You cant deposit exposure. Further, we will never have P5 level exposure. You all are happy with the AAC expoaure now...it sucks. Espn3, EspnU, and Espn News for our games while the P5 get prime time slots on Espn and Cbs etc isnt "keeping up with P5 exposure". Good exposure was big east hoops on espn on Big Monday. We dont have that. We are on a lot...on espn backwater stations.