(04-28-2015 10:37 AM)wcd35 Wrote: (04-27-2015 09:32 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote: Playing App st #234 and ULM #213 will hurt the Cajuns even if they sweep them both.. If they lose then it's gonna really drop
As it has been mentioned, the RPI ranking doesnt matter, it's the W-L record. ULM isnt a terrible game as it stands (though that may change by the time we play them.)
Also, if the Cajuns are to lose, it is better to do it on the road to one of those teams than at home where a loss hurts more (1.3x vs 0.7x). The portion of the RPI that takes into account the result of your games is your adjusted win pct with home/road factors. That part of the RPI does not take into account the record of which team you lose to or which teams beat you, only where the loss occurs. Losing to UALR (#181) on the road hurts less than losing to Stony Brook (#63 RPI) at home.
Where you hurt is in just playing bad record teams (your opponents win pct). There's a breakdown of those numbers on Ragin Pagin by GoneGolfin. He breaks down the remaining Cajuns remaining schedule
wcd35 is correct. As I have been saying for years, the RPI impact of a scheduled game is much more about the opponent's WP than it is their RPI rank (the two do not necessarily correlate and the trick is to find the hidden gems). This is why Alabama is not really a benefit to the Cajuns' RPI, other than that it was two road wins (which you can get anywhere). Though it does help in that the Cajuns were able to notch two wins against the RPI Top 50 … but we are talking calculating the RPI here, not the other selection committee criteria.
When scheduling, you want your OWP to be significantly higher than your OOWP. That is, you want your opponents to have lofty winning percentages … and they have a better chance at having lofty winning percentages if they schedule weaker opponents (weaker OWP). There are several other axioms of my RPI scheduling approach, but this is the most important.
With respect to home vs. road losses above … not quite correct. Yes, it is better to lose on the road vs. at home …
but only if your adjusted winning percentage is over .500. Else, the reverse is true. Also, the reasoning is not quite as you state above. A loss at home and a win on the road is an adjusted W/L of 1.3 wins and 1.3 losses. A win at home and a loss on the road is an adjusted W/L of 0.7 wins and 0.7 losses. As you can see, adding 1.3 wins and 1.3 losses to your adjusted WP is going to have a modestly more negative impact than adding 0.7 wins and 0.7 losses
if you have an adjusted WP of over .500. The converse is true if your adjusted WP is under .500.
As for the Cajuns' RPI and their upcoming games …
Winning the home game vs. New Orleans and going 3-1 on the road at Nicholls State and Appalachian State (3) will result in an RPI fall to .56178 from .56588 (all other things being equal). OWP would fall to .53474 from .55592. An RPI of .56178 would result in a fall to #42 in this week's RPI rankings. However, that is mostly due to teams between #30 and #43 being packed nicely together.
After weathering the UNO and Appalachian State OWP storm, South Alabama and ULM will be a nice reprieve and an opportunity to climb higher. Going 2-1 vs. South Alabama and 2-1 vs. ULM would bring their RPI higher to about .56335 (all other things being equal) … putting them at about #38 in this week's rankings.
Brian
