(04-28-2015 12:27 PM)Potomac Wrote: That's also true, even if we do get a regional, you better believe they'll give us a loaded one that we won't likely make it out of.
That's just not the way the selection committee works for softball. They do it based on geography and who they could bus to Harrisonburg.
Another thing you need to keep in mind is that the SEC is probably going to get 11 teams in (maybe 12 depending on what you think of Ole Miss, right now I'd say they are on the outside). With 16 regional sites that means that 11 different regional sites will end up with an SEC team. Which is why it is likely the Harrisonburg regional would end up with Kentucky (assuming they don't rebound enough to host a region) or South Carolina since both those teams fall within the radius where the NCAA could bus a team to JMU. South Carolina is more likely to end up at Florida State would be my guess, but they could send them to Harrisonburg. Either way, whatever SEC they ended up with would likely be the 2 seed in their regional.
Now if you look at the teams in the range to be three seeds, teams that are within the busing radius that could end up as 3 seeds in a region, you end up with Virginia Tech, North Carolina and North Carolina State. Now JMU has already played Virginia Tech and North Carolina, which doesn't rule them out, but it would make sense for them to send Tech to Tennessee and UNC to Georgia.
As for a 4 seed, it would depend on who ended winning some of the Northeast conference, but they'd end up with someone who was the champion of the Patriot/MAAC/MEAC/IVY conferences.
Thus you are likely to end up with a regional that looks like:
1. JMU
2. Kentucky/South Carolina
3. NC State/North Carolina/Virginia Tech
4. Some Northeastern/Mid-Atlantic conference champion
All of this is just to illustrate all the thought that the NCAA would put into its selection before it even considered "screwing over" a mid-major with a loaded regional.
And of course this is only conjecture since there will be a considerable amount of movement in the RPI top 50 over the final 2 weeks.