(03-14-2015 08:53 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  "While TV markets have driven much of conference realignment, it isn't always as big a factor for conferences like C-USA. In recent years the conference has primarily added schools from bigger markets, though also dipped into areas like Murfreesboro, Tenn. (Middle Tennessee State) and Bowling Green, Ky. (Western Kentucky).

The conference now has six schools in the nation's Top 50 television markets, including Miami, Houston and Charlotte, but its TV rights deal pales in comparison to Power 5 conferences. How popular a school actually is in its market can be just as, if not more, important than the market size.

"We'll have to factor in what's the penetration of that school in that particular TV market and how many sets they turn on," Rice AD Karlgaard said. "You can be in a big market and not turn on many sets, or in a small market and turn on a lot. In that sense, it's a wash."

A prime example is UAB. Birmingham is consistently the top-rated market for college football television viewing, yet the school has had issues with its football game attendance for decades. Just because a city is big, or even if it loves college football like Birmingham, it doesn't make the school itself benefits.

The more important factor could be finding a good geographic fit. The conference has a huge footprint, ranging from Old Dominion in Virginia to Florida International to Texas El-Paso, making traveling a costly endeavor for most schools. C-USA would need to add a school that not only adds to the bottom line, but won't considerably increase travel costs."

Can it be some writers and conference officials are FINALLY coming to their senses in the conference realignment madness? CUSA's CEO's need to kick Banowsky to the curb and replace him with Rice's AD. This guy ctually gets it.

So you just got to convince ESPN, Fox, or CBS that we are better than most CUSA schools, and many AAC schools for fan interest. You are not going to win that battle with Boone, Statesboro, Troy, Jonesboro, and MOANrow. As horrible a team, and as weak a fan base as Ga St has ESPN prefers them to y'all and us.

(03-14-2015 08:23 AM)Liberty Fan Wrote:  I was reading what Benson said this week. Idaho and NMSU seem to be in question long term. SB could be headed in this direction?

Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
JMU
Liberty
Georgia State
Open Spot


UL Lafayette
Texas State
Arkansas State
South Alabama
UL Monroe
Troy

Add UAB to the east or
Add Mo St and move Troy east and that is a solid group.

JMU is doubtful so UAB and MoSt would be a big win as well.

ODU and MTSU are mentioning Virginia schools not because they think it leads to a great TV deal, but because it gives them a solid core in the event the TV deal is flat or drops because then they have a regional core to build a break away conference around.


Threaten a break and who do FIU/FAU cast their lot with if asked?

No way App, Ga.St, or Ga. So says no if they get invited.

One quick move and they've got an eastern league.

(03-14-2015 11:50 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  ODU and MTSU are mentioning Virginia schools not because they think it leads to a great TV deal, but because it gives them a solid core in the event the TV deal is flat or drops because then they have a regional core to build a break away conference around.


Threaten a break and who do FIU/FAU cast their lot with if asked?

No way App, Ga.St, or Ga. So says no if they get invited.

One quick move and they've got an eastern league.

OK, say the new CUSA deal does suck, and this group decides it wants to break and form its own conference. what makes you believe that such a conference, with no track record, could even pull a TV deal as good as the one they just left?

(03-14-2015 11:56 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 11:50 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  ODU and MTSU are mentioning Virginia schools not because they think it leads to a great TV deal, but because it gives them a solid core in the event the TV deal is flat or drops because then they have a regional core to build a break away conference around.


Threaten a break and who do FIU/FAU cast their lot with if asked?

No way App, Ga.St, or Ga. So says no if they get invited.

One quick move and they've got an eastern league.

OK, say the new CUSA deal does suck, and this group decides it wants to break and form its own conference. what makes you believe that such a conference, with no track record, could even pull a TV deal as good as the one they just left?

The one they just left would be no more by contract, so it would be a choice of a low new TV contract with a spread out league, or going regional to save money with a similar TV contract.

(03-14-2015 11:59 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 11:56 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 11:50 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  ODU and MTSU are mentioning Virginia schools not because they think it leads to a great TV deal, but because it gives them a solid core in the event the TV deal is flat or drops because then they have a regional core to build a break away conference around.


Threaten a break and who do FIU/FAU cast their lot with if asked?

No way App, Ga.St, or Ga. So says no if they get invited.

One quick move and they've got an eastern league.

OK, say the new CUSA deal does suck, and this group decides it wants to break and form its own conference. what makes you believe that such a conference, with no track record, could even pull a TV deal as good as the one they just left?

The one they just left would be no more by contract, so it would be a choice of a low new TV contract with a spread out league, or going regional to save money with a similar TV contract.

Would those savings off set the other costs encumbered with breaking off and forming a new conference? Seriously curious . . .

(03-14-2015 12:06 PM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 11:59 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 11:56 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 11:50 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  ODU and MTSU are mentioning Virginia schools not because they think it leads to a great TV deal, but because it gives them a solid core in the event the TV deal is flat or drops because then they have a regional core to build a break away conference around.


Threaten a break and who do FIU/FAU cast their lot with if asked?

No way App, Ga.St, or Ga. So says no if they get invited.

One quick move and they've got an eastern league.

OK, say the new CUSA deal does suck, and this group decides it wants to break and form its own conference. what makes you believe that such a conference, with no track record, could even pull a TV deal as good as the one they just left?

The one they just left would be no more by contract, so it would be a choice of a low new TV contract with a spread out league, or going regional to save money with a similar TV contract.

Would those savings off set the other costs encumbered with breaking off and forming a new conference? Seriously curious . . .

There is more than money to for the schools to consider, i.e. the toll the spread out conference takes on the student athletes. Think...all sports, not just FB or MBB.

Would the new breakaway conference have a spot in the playoff system and access to the G5 bowl? The new system may have put an end to new breakaway conferences being formed. I can't see the G5 being allowed to add a 6th conference which would probably bring more teams to FBS to split the pie more.

(03-13-2015 05:03 PM)Tennessee_Eagle Wrote:  

(03-12-2015 05:17 PM)panama Wrote:  One AD who quite shockingly (not really) is in Nashville area is pushing Liberty and JMU. He wants more travel friendly (for him) schools added.

Then why is he not mentioning Georgia State?

First: MT has 20+ f'ball players from north Georgia every year. We will not vote to bring in Georgia State to CUSA!
Second: MT (35 miles from Downtown) and WKU (60 miles from Downtown) are BOTH Nashville TV MARKET Universities, & largest alumni base for both is living in Greater Nashville Metro Area!
Third: AD Massaro is not really pushing anybody for expansion. He's just the consummate diplomat!
Fourth: It's all about Money. CUSA will only expand with the school that makes CUSA the MOST MONEY!

(03-14-2015 11:56 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 11:50 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  ODU and MTSU are mentioning Virginia schools not because they think it leads to a great TV deal, but because it gives them a solid core in the event the TV deal is flat or drops because then they have a regional core to build a break away conference around.


Threaten a break and who do FIU/FAU cast their lot with if asked?

No way App, Ga.St, or Ga. So says no if they get invited.

One quick move and they've got an eastern league.

OK, say the new CUSA deal does suck, and this group decides it wants to break and form its own conference. what makes you believe that such a conference, with no track record, could even pull a TV deal as good as the one they just left?

If they add FIU/FAU they lose three significant markets DFW, Houston, and San Antonio. If they so desire, they add Atlanta. They end up with a league with multiple bus trips.

Let's say the CUSA deal ends up equal to MAC in per team. That would be $11.6 million. Now let's say there is a 10% discount for being a new league. You are looking at $83,000 less than staying in CUSA but no travel to Hattiesburg, Ruston, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, or El Paso.

In local coverage no games like UTEP-UTSA that are of no interest to viewers in Nashville.

No sending teams to championship events a long way away.

Of the 16 championship events this year, eight are being held outside the footprint of the potential breakaway, with baseball to be determined.

Plus no more travel to Dallas area for league meetings.

It cost AState nearly $20k to move a baseball series to Jackson, MS it would not take much to save several hundred thousand in travel, making your tolerance for less TV money than whatever they could get fairly strong.

Starting a new league isn't hard and it is even easier if you start with a group that can qualify for autobids.

(03-14-2015 12:23 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Would the new breakaway conference have a spot in the playoff system and access to the G5 bowl? The new system may have put an end to new breakaway conferences being formed. I can't see the G5 being allowed to add a 6th conference which would probably bring more teams to FBS to split the pie more.

That's up to the CFP membership but the reality is there would not be six leagues. The remainder of CUSA would take so many Sun Belt schools in order to survive that there would still be five.

If there is a break, CUSA East would have 7 current members (the ones on the map plus Florida) and would take at least one Sun Belt, leaving the Sun Belt with no more than 8 full members. Maybe fewer if they ranged into Alabama.

CUSA West would have only 6 and would need to add at least three Sun Belt to viable.

Odds are if it happened the Sun Belt would be drawn down too far to recover.

(03-14-2015 12:25 PM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote:  

(03-13-2015 05:03 PM)Tennessee_Eagle Wrote:  

(03-12-2015 05:17 PM)panama Wrote:  One AD who quite shockingly (not really) is in Nashville area is pushing Liberty and JMU. He wants more travel friendly (for him) schools added.

Then why is he not mentioning Georgia State?

First: MT has 20+ f'ball players from north Georgia every year. We will not vote to bring in Georgia State to CUSA!
Second: MT (35 miles from Downtown) and WKU (60 miles from Downtown) are BOTH Nashville TV MARKET Universities, & largest alumni base for both is living in Greater Nashville Metro Area!
Third: AD Massaro is not really pushing anybody for expansion. He's just the consummate diplomat!
Fourth: It's all about Money. CUSA will only expand with the school that makes CUSA the MOST MONEY!

I've made the bolded point repeatedly. If the presidents consider expansion from a recruiting standpoint CUSA's options are seriously limited because there are so few potential targets that don't recruit head to head heavily with existing members. ODU's public interest in Virginia teams works to the contrary.

(03-14-2015 12:30 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 12:23 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Would the new breakaway conference have a spot in the playoff system and access to the G5 bowl? The new system may have put an end to new breakaway conferences being formed. I can't see the G5 being allowed to add a 6th conference which would probably bring more teams to FBS to split the pie more.

That's up to the CFP membership but the reality is there would not be six leagues. The remainder of CUSA would take so many Sun Belt schools in order to survive that there would still be five.

If there is a break, CUSA East would have 7 current members (the ones on the map plus Florida) and would take at least one Sun Belt, leaving the Sun Belt with no more than 8 full members. Maybe fewer if they ranged into Alabama.

CUSA West would have only 6 and would need to add at least three Sun Belt to viable.

Odds are if it happened the Sun Belt would be drawn down too far to recover.

The problem is how does a group break away without 100% assurance that they have a place in the playoff/G5 bowl?

What if CUSA adds SBC schools, then the SBC adds Jax St, Liberty, Lamar, Sam Houston, Kennesaw or anyone else that will come? I don't see ULM, Troy, USA, Idaho and whoever is left letting the conference die. The new conference could end up in no mans land. CUSA and the SBC would be mad and vote against the new conference. The other conferences would not like it because it potentially opens the flood gates for more FCS teams.

(03-14-2015 12:35 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 12:30 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 12:23 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Would the new breakaway conference have a spot in the playoff system and access to the G5 bowl? The new system may have put an end to new breakaway conferences being formed. I can't see the G5 being allowed to add a 6th conference which would probably bring more teams to FBS to split the pie more.

That's up to the CFP membership but the reality is there would not be six leagues. The remainder of CUSA would take so many Sun Belt schools in order to survive that there would still be five.

If there is a break, CUSA East would have 7 current members (the ones on the map plus Florida) and would take at least one Sun Belt, leaving the Sun Belt with no more than 8 full members. Maybe fewer if they ranged into Alabama.

CUSA West would have only 6 and would need to add at least three Sun Belt to viable.

Odds are if it happened the Sun Belt would be drawn down too far to recover.

The problem is how does a group break away without 100% assurance that they have a place in the playoff/G5 bowl?

What if CUSA adds SBC schools, then the SBC adds Jax St, Liberty, Lamar, Sam Houston, Kennesaw or anyone else that will come? I don't see ULM, Troy, USA, Idaho and whoever is left letting the conference die. The new conference could end up in no mans land. CUSA and the SBC would be mad and vote against the new conference. The other conferences would not like it because it potentially opens the flood gates for more FCS teams.

If you get too small math is not your friend.
NCAA has already ruled that transitional teams cannot count games against transitional teams toward meeting the scheduling requirements. Get too small and you can't all your transitionals up to FBS before the grace period expires.

The more likely thing that happens if someone fires such a shot is by the time the shooting ends you end up with each holding the original SBC and CUSA charters but using new names.

(03-14-2015 12:35 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 12:30 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-14-2015 12:23 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Would the new breakaway conference have a spot in the playoff system and access to the G5 bowl? The new system may have put an end to new breakaway conferences being formed. I can't see the G5 being allowed to add a 6th conference which would probably bring more teams to FBS to split the pie more.

That's up to the CFP membership but the reality is there would not be six leagues. The remainder of CUSA would take so many Sun Belt schools in order to survive that there would still be five.

If there is a break, CUSA East would have 7 current members (the ones on the map plus Florida) and would take at least one Sun Belt, leaving the Sun Belt with no more than 8 full members. Maybe fewer if they ranged into Alabama.

CUSA West would have only 6 and would need to add at least three Sun Belt to viable.

Odds are if it happened the Sun Belt would be drawn down too far to recover.

The problem is how does a group break away without 100% assurance that they have a place in the playoff/G5 bowl?

What if CUSA adds SBC schools, then the SBC adds Jax St, Liberty, Lamar, Sam Houston, Kennesaw or anyone else that will come? I don't see ULM, Troy, USA, Idaho and whoever is left letting the conference die. The new conference could end up in no mans land. CUSA and the SBC would be mad and vote against the new conference. The other conferences would not like it because it potentially opens the flood gates for more FCS teams.

So if the SBC gets poached again by CUSA, and if NMSU ends up an indy or in the MWC or elsewhere, does the SBC stoop to take FCS Jax St, Liberty, Lamar..... to stay afloat, or do the remaining SBC schools say, say nahhhhh and seek invites as an expansion from CUSA and others. If this is a reality that could happen, the SBC may be playing poker with a weak poker face. One would think existing SBC schools would rather have their own identity, with FCS call ups, rather than mesh into another conference. This is/could be a turn out to have an inkling of a WAC repeat.

APPALACHIAN STATE is almost dead center in the oval drawn on the maps above.Other G5 schools inside the oval include Ohio University and the Miami(OH) Redhawks.Interesting. Makes a lot of sense.Probably why it won't happen.But you never know.

(03-13-2015 08:51 AM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(03-13-2015 05:59 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  

(03-12-2015 02:01 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  So does this mean that this offseason it is CUSA's turn to deal with the Liberty pushers?

"Pushers", at least that is a new term to describe Liberty fans. So a thread is started about Liberty, on the SBC board, by a SBC fan, about Liberty joining CUSA, a few of us reply, and we're pushers. Hmmm. Seems like you guys really love us but can't admit it. You know, like the first grader who constantly taps the pretty little girl and pulls her pony tail in affection. Wish I had realized this sooner, we LU pushers would have been feeling all warm and cushy a long time ago.

Did I refer to you or anyone in particular as a pusher? No. But you sure were ready to jump on that sword to claim martyrdom.

Own the fact that for the past two seasons (at least) there have been liberty posters on here pushing Liberty as hard as they could (Campaign4Liberty has it in his NAME).

Or maybe just don't try so hard to find ways in which you think you might be persecuted.

Campaign for Liberty is the name of Ron Paul's grassroots effort to bring Libertarians to the forefront. Any resemblance to the school in Lynchburg, VA is purely by accident.

http://www.campaignforliberty.org
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campaign_for_Liberty

Important Consideration

When you look at that map and take it with the prior MTSU and ODU comments in favor of Virginia expansion, while it certainly could form a core for a breakaway, remember this.

If you have an eastern core of six plus FIU/FAU the net result is 8 teams. If you have an 8 team eastern division that means the upper six go to Florida every year. It permits playing both Florida schools in one trip. It allows for travel pairings such as WKU/MTSU, Marshall/JMU, ODU/Charlotte that allow for easier travel within the division in multi-opponent per week sports. In football it means if you stay with an 8 game schedule you travel once every two years to the western division. In basketball if you use divisions or geographic loading of your schedule, on a 16 game slate you would travel west once per season, on an 18 game slate you would go west twice a year.

There is the potential for very big travel savings.

Now you don't get to have an 8 team East and 6 or 7 team West unless you are highly dysfunctional but functional enough to get JMU or Liberty added.

That would push you to a 16 team league.

Now let's talk money.

TV plus CFP base money (before performance bonus) is currently $1.857 million for CUSA. At 16 it is $1.625 million. That's $232k travel savings might be more but it would be close.

MAC's TV went up $8 million a 500% increase. CUSA with a 21% increase to $17 million is nearly the same money as currently is received but the travel savings easily put them ahead. A 28.5% increase to $18 million puts them ahead at 16 before factoring travel.

Now let's back up to where the money stays the same. AAC signed a 7 year deal, MAC signed 13. So let's call the next CUSA deal 10 years.

To get to 16 (presuming UAB is expelled) means adding three schools, based on prior expansion that's $2 million per school. If paid over three years, the drop of $232k becomes a drop of $79k for the 13 existing members the first three years (they more than make that up in savings and probability says by the time the buy in expires a third of the people involved in making the deal are gone given given the average university president last 8.5 years). If the buy in is over two year the first two years the existing 13 only are down $2k the first two years and are clearly net positive on travel.

If you amortize the entry over the ten years of the TV deal with out interest the net to the existing 13 is a drop in revenue of $186k but eliminating one charter football flight per season saves you half that. Travel savings can easily pay $186k.

These numbers presume no improvement or stability in CFP bonus money, never winning the access bowl slot and no improvement in basketball units. It assumes no teams experience increased attendance with closer opponents and presumes no school uses the fire of a regional rivalry to improve their fund-raising.

In short it would take very little for 16 to be workable if you are starting with the idea of two divisions with little interest in playing anyone outside their division. Outside of time value of USM-Marshall I don't see any crossover games that if lost will cause much of anyone to care.

(03-14-2015 03:01 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  APPALACHIAN STATE is almost dead center in the oval drawn on the maps above.Other G5 schools inside the oval include Ohio University and the Miami(OH) Redhawks.Interesting. Makes a lot of sense.Probably why it won't happen.But you never know.

I think on the probability scale, CUSA 16 is more probable with some Virginia school rounding out the east, but you can form a snug little mostly travel friendly league never going west of Bowling Green and you've got two MAC and three Sun Belt for potential members all fairly close by to help bridge to Florida.

Even if it isn't on someone's to do list I bet someone has it in their in case of emergency break glass folder.

(03-14-2015 01:37 PM)NewTimes Wrote:  So if the SBC gets poached again by CUSA, and if NMSU ends up an indy or in the MWC or elsewhere, does the SBC stoop to take FCS Jax St, Liberty, Lamar..... to stay afloat, or do the remaining SBC schools say, say nahhhhh and seek invites as an expansion from CUSA and others. If this is a reality that could happen, the SBC may be playing poker with a weak poker face. One would think existing SBC schools would rather have their own identity, with FCS call ups, rather than mesh into another conference. This is/could be a turn out to have an inkling of a WAC repeat.

The problem with your question is that pretty much all members of the Sun Belt are already seeking invites as an expansion from CUSA and others. Since it's already occurring, I don't think it would have an impact on decision making.

But on the larger scale, I think given Benson's history, he will invite any and everyone possible to keep the conference alive. He did so in the WAC where he was inviting teams that had no desire or intent to move up.

Given that he has folks openly campaigning to join the Sun Belt, I think those would be the second group invited (first being the best choices), then he would approach those that aren't interested with the notion of convincing them to move up.

His final gasp would be to try and convince the Montanas to move up, probably.