RE: Notre Dame to join ACC football
So I read the rumor, and my first thought is...ridiculous. And for basically because there is no leverage in for NBC. ESPN holds all the cards.
HOWEVER...just playing around with it a bit. ESPN already subleases a fair amount of content to Raycom, who then subleases about half of that to Fox Sports. So ESPN "owned" content is already ending up on a competitor's networks (as well as Raycom, which is a competitor to ESPN's syndication arm). This Raycom deal was requested by the ACC in the contract negotiations, and ESPN went for it with reportedly little reservation.
So let's say NBC buy's out Raycom's piece. There's a decent chunk of content to form the basis for the network.
ESPN wasn't airing that content anyway. They would still get paid for it just the same. Instead of being on Raycom and Fox Sports, it ends up on ACC Net and maybe some on NBC Sports. Is that really any more detrimental to ESPN than being on Fox Sports Nets? Maybe it's even better, as Fox is the more direct competitor right now.
In return, ESPN gets Notre Dame in the ACC. I'm going to assume that part of this deal keeps ND home games on NBC, but if they go to a 9 game schedule, that's still several more ND games per year, plus the possibility of ACC Championship game appearances.
But in addition, it further solidifies the ACC and ESPN against the B1G and Fox. It guarantees ND will never end up in the B1G, and it means, for all intents and purposes, no chance of the B1G being able to pick apart the ACC. ESPN, if it values ACC product, and I think it does, may see the writing on the wall with the B1G contract coming up...one way or another it's going to eventually have to funnel some more money into the ACC to keep everyone happy if they don't want much of the ACC's most valuable properties ending up in the B1G. They could do that by increasing payments at the look-in, or they could do that with an ACC Network which is well into negotiations.
OR...they could let NBC foot that bill. They could let NBC overpay for an ACC network, ESPN keeps airing virtually all the ACC content that they do now, and both get ND and strike a blow to the B1G. There might be a win there for them.
And I know I might be making it sound like ESPN values the ACC more than they do or should...but it's not about the ACC vs. the B1G, it's really about the SEC vs. B1G. Preserving the ACC cuts off a major avenue for the B1G making real inroads into SEC dominance, the crown jewel of ESPN's college coverage. Basically, it cuts off the east, meaning they would only have to defend the B1G to the West with TX and KU.
It's still crazy talk...but maybe slightly less crazy than I thought on first blush.
|