Drexel Dragons
Overall record vs. DI: 6-13
CAA record: 4-5
RPI: 248
SOS: 143
KenPom: 276
Bruiser Flint's 14th year with the Drexel Dragons seemed to go up in flames before it began. As has become a trend over the last three seasons, major injuries have crippled their chances at a title. This season, Junior Damion Lee returns coming off an injury, but the Dragons lost forward Kazembe Abif and starting point guard Major Canady for the entire season.
Nevertheless, Drexel is making do, and are coming off a 2-game winning streak, most recently a home upset over Northeastern. They get another chance to knock off a top CAA team at home this weekend against the Hawks as they try to improve to .500.
Lee (21.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg) leads the conference in scoring and is one of the better offensive players Flint has ever had in his defense-minded system. He represents over 37 % of Drexel's scoring this season (41 % in conference games). Fellow Junior Tavon Allen (10.5 ppg) is also in double figures this season, while Sophomore forward Rodney Williams (7.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg), who also suffered an injury earlier in the season, has come back strong for the Dragons.
In Conference-only games, Drexel is the lowest-scoring team (55.9 ppg) in the CAA, making Lee all the more important to the Dragons' success. The Dragons make up for their scoring deficiency by also being the 2nd-best scoring defense (63.1 ppg). UNCW's games have been, on average, in the high-60's and are 3rd in the CAA in scoring. The contrasting styles will certainly be interesting to watch.
Drexel, much like Towson, lacks 3-pt shooting threats (9th in 3-pt %). They aren't a terrific rebounding team either (10th in rebounding margin). Drexel's calling card, however, is in the turnover department. Only UNCW (+3.44) is better than Drexel (+ 3.11) in turnover margin.
Drexel's victory over Northeastern should not scare us. We have more talent, and in the areas where Drexel does well, we do just as well or better. The key will be dictating the pace of the game. If Drexel keeps this game in the 50's, the difference will be which team makes a mistake at the end.
PREDICTION: Seahawks 67, Drexel 57