(01-14-2015 10:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Love that we are finally getting some facts into the discussion. i can understand why some of yall think a guy with a 0-0 record against top 60 might be a good gamble over somebody withan 0-10, 0-25, or 0-50 record (pick your time frame and record). In 3-4 years, when his record is 0-10, do we go for another guy with a 0-0 record?
9 years ago, DBD
was the guy with the 0-0 record against top 60, i.e. HE was the one you don't wish to hire.
TODAY, 9 years later, we have the data on how he performs, with a Rice team, no less, against top 60. The argument for DBD being suspect at this point is his own record. Look at the data just above this in NoodleOwl's post #68. While it is possible he could suddenly change overnight (or over the next 9 years) and become Frank Beamer, the odds do appear highly unlikely with the data he has accumulated.
If you play poker with the same philosophy you use with your DBD analysis, it would appear that no matter what hand you are dealt, you always play it, and you always play it to the river no matter the bets, no matter the flop, turn or river. That does not appear to be very sound strategy to me. Don't the odds necessarily change with every card that is dealt--and thus what may at first appear to be a strong hand at the beginning of the game, can end up looking like a weak or losing hand toward the end of the hand? No big deal if you have the largest stack at the table and everyone else is short-stacked. You can afford to be sloppy and lose some hands or take some flyers. IOW, a P5 school doesn't have to worry about how to get into the P5--they're already there.
But Rice's situation is the reverse--we are the shortest stack at the table, and we have a hand that every year looks worse against the competition.
We have to perform far better than other schools do to have a chance to catch up. Yes, we're catching some Jacks, but every year we have to beat Kings or better and Jacks just won't do it, even though they are good enough to beat the 10's, 9's 8's etc... Sometimes, the information you gain during the play of the hand makes you decide to fold what you thought was going to be a winning hand and play a new, unknown hand.
To me, DBD represents starting Hold 'em with a pair of Jacks. The flop over the 9 years has been A-K-4, and we are staring at 7 other guys at the table, a few folding, and the remaining players betting strong, representing they have a pair of Aces or Kings. The Turn is a throwaway card, in this case a "7" representing the continued muddling around. Even if we bet heavily on the turn to represent trip 7s to try to knock the others out and steal the pot, it has not worked. We have no flush possibility with the cards we hold. We're at the river representing trip 7s or two pair, but in reality holding that pair of Jacks, hoping to catch a Jack on the river, when our competition is representing at least a pair of Aces, a pair of Kings, or two pair, or possibly trip Aces or trip Kings. Heck maybe they have the trip 7s, or two pair, as every round of betting they raise. Any of which have us beat. But we're choosing to go all-in with DBD in that scenario hoping for that Jack on the river and no one else has trips, or catches a Full House. Bad odds.
(01-14-2015 10:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: bring me somebody with skins on the wall instead of just potential, and I will change sides. i would rate that a good gamble.
Right now, since the trajectory seems to be "up", I think the bird in the hand is the better bet. Neiither is sure thing.
That's the thing. The trend has not been up. It's been very sideways. Even within seasons it's been inconsistent, skewed and sideways. Walt's very point over many posts is that the needle has not been moved against signature wins, plural, over 8 years. That is a necessary requirement to make some noise and move the needle.
(01-14-2015 10:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: I don't see yet the reasoning behind projecting a breakout 11-1 or 12-0 season. is it because UT may be weak? i thought we wanted to beat strong teams, not weak. s it because we will have a senior QB?
i like our teams chances at a good season, but that falls short of expecting a breakout season.
Please define exactly what "good" season is to you, OO.
Scenario #1: I've posted it before, but I'll post it again. The reason I feel, in my opinion that a breakout season is possible for DBD in 2015 is that if I am wrong about him, and he is in fact the wonderful coach some say he is and I just can't see it, then we should beat all the bad CUSA teams we have on the schedule next year, no matter which ones they are. Also, we should beat the better teams in CUSA if I am wrong, as DBD himself predicted being able to win conference to a sideline reporter before the Hawaii Bowl, and since as you say his trajectory is "up" that is a step "up" from where we are now. Then we should be able to beat Army at home. That gets us a CUSA Championship and a non-con win against Army. 9-0 so far. Then there's a down Texas team on the road. For all those complaining about signature wins, DBD the Great, deems it time to show that he's really been toying with us all these years, and he coaches a great game to get his first meaningful win against a P5 name team in his 9th season. Now we're up to 10-0.
Then there's the "Mystery Team" yet to be announced. If it is Wagner or the like, as has been rumored, I will go out on a limb and guess that DBD is such a great coach now that another Nicholls State is not in the offing and we win. If it is UH, we should still have their number as they have a brand new coach, and DBD has established his superiority over the years and our trend is "up", so time to beat them, too.
Baylor is on the road and a Top 5 team in the nation. It is highly unlikely we beat them, but stranger things have happened over the years in college football. That's the one loss in the 11-1 scenario. If the stars do choose to align, and DBD coaches a signature game, there's your 12-0. Plausible, yet highly unlikely. Certainly not expected. Then we are in the national conversation for the second half of the season for the access bowl. Gets Rice's name out there in a way it has never been before, and all of a sudden the needle actually moves for real. Terrible scenario, I know, and shame on me for thinking it plausible. But that's if DBD is really the coach you think he is.
Scenario #2: If I'm right, however, and DBD continues his established pattern of mediocrity, odds are the following is the more realistic scenario:
We will probably end up losing at least one, perhaps even two, games to a C-USA bottom-feeder, lose to one or two good CUSA teams on our schedule whoever they will be, lose at both Texas and Baylor, and perhaps UH if scheduled, or one other weird game. The blame will be laid squarely as on being "on him" and also due to 'injuries', which only Rice has to deal with, of course, other teams always playing us at full strength and having no excuses, and the fact that we "have to play better defense."
So there's your 6-6 or 7-5, in C-USA, against primarily or exclusively the worst teams in college football. Allow me to show how ridiculous the unbridled cheering for that appears to me: Another WINNING SEASON, YAY!!! We get our unprecedented and !!!!
Historic Fourth Consecutive Bowl game!!!! in the Toilet Bowl vs Troy, AL Trojans (tried to dress it up and make it look as good as possible there) (a new bowl played in Troy, NY for the bottom two bowl teams to play each-other at 1am on Christmas Eve.) The Bowl marketers go crazy selling "Troy in Troy" t-shirts to all the fans! It's a new bowl for Rice, and there are plenty of shots of the Rice fans in Troy, NY (motto is "at least we're not Scranton!) who traveled and the "R" Texas flags and the relatively empty stands (normal now for most lower bowl games, we are reminded--these are TV events nowadays, after all), and the announcers are able to plug Rice's new EZF construction again at the end of the game (3:30am Eastern, but only 2:30am Central), to all those viewers who watched until the end.
I admit, it is better than having a losing record and no bowl, but not by all that much. And I certainly don't think DBD is the only coach who can do that at present-level Rice.
I'll take the first scenario as being better for Rice and the one I will root for, but then, I'm the one who "wants us to lose" as someone posted. The "winners" apparently want more seasons of Scenario #2.
That's just backwards to me, but whatever.
Lastly, I'll ask again: Please define exactly what "good" season is to you, OO.
ETA: to be clear, the Turn in the Hold'em poker illustration above is a meaningless card, a "7" we choose to bluff on to try to push some others out, representing either trip 7's or two pair to the other players. Added it in above and adjusted the flop to be clear it is the Turn card we are representing on...
