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Transformation vs Incrementalism
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #641
Exclamation RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
Cute thread about a Transformative SEC arrangement for Rice et. al. here:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-854713.html
08-06-2018 11:09 PM
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Antarius Offline
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Post: #642
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(08-06-2018 11:09 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Cute thread about a Transformative SEC arrangement for Rice et. al. here:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-854713.html

Interesting but why would Vandy go for it? They get SEC revenue sharing while not having to spend a ton for it.

It's like being Rice but getting 50 million vs the 200 thousand we get. Sure, their expenditure is higher, but the revenue gap is likely far smaller at Vandy (revenue vs expenditure) than it is at Rice. Now add in being on national TV a few times a year.

Practically, Vandy is a founding member of the SEC. They arent going anywhere
08-06-2018 11:20 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #643
Exclamation RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
First things first, Coach B...gotta get off this list pronto
(note: first 3 teams (or bottom 3) are all C-Useless A. And Liberty makes the list for the first time as they "move up."

Linky: UTEP Miners, Rice Owls lead preseason Bottom 10

[Image: 242.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true]2. Minute Rice (1-11 last season)

Quote:Former Stanford assistant Mike Bloomgren is now leader of the Owls parliament (that's actually what a flock of owls is called; we looked it up) and has already coined the official motto of the Bottom 10: "We're not where we want to be, but thank God we're not where we used to be." Heads-up, they host UTEP on Nov. 3.
08-24-2018 09:19 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #644
Exclamation RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
also of note:

ESPN's Matchup Predictor currently gives Rice an 86.4% chance of victory tomorrow, and PVA&M 13.6%

plus, they still have this old photo posted:

[Image: i?img=%2Fi%2Fvenues%2Fcollege%2Dfootball...2F3895.jpg]
08-24-2018 09:36 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #645
Exclamation RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
08-24-2018 09:59 PM
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NYNightOwl Offline
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Post: #646
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
CBS has Rice as 18.5 point favorites and an over/under of 57.
Underdog Dynasty has the O/U at 61 with Rice being 21 point favorites.
08-24-2018 10:04 PM
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Antarius Offline
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Post: #647
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(08-24-2018 09:19 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  First things first, Coach B...gotta get off this list pronto
(note: first 3 teams (or bottom 3) are all C-Useless A. And Liberty makes the list for the first time as they "move up."

Linky: UTEP Miners, Rice Owls lead preseason Bottom 10

[Image: 242.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true]2. Minute Rice (1-11 last season)

Quote:Former Stanford assistant Mike Bloomgren is now leader of the Owls parliament (that's actually what a flock of owls is called; we looked it up) and has already coined the official motto of the Bottom 10: "We're not where we want to be, but thank God we're not where we used to be." Heads-up, they host UTEP on Nov. 3.

Yes, the top bottom three spots are all occupied by teams from Conference USA. But no, Charlotte doesn't play UTEP or Rice because C-USA has like 47 teams scattered across nine time zones.

Bahahahahaha
08-24-2018 10:24 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #648
Exclamation RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
So far, still looks like "Incrementalism," although a much different type of incrementalism than the very limited progress from the past. I was hoping Coach Bloom would be able to put it together a bit faster with this group, especially after the nice surprise of watching the Houston game. But I guess other teams now know they have to prepare for us more for real and might not take us as lightly as apparently the Coogs did that day.

I will say that so far the games and game play have/has been waaaay more watchable and resembling football than before. That is some of the incremental progress I see (and the O-line play has looked better as well.)

Q: Will we possibly see one of those "second half surges" this year (with the exception of the LSU game) as our conference schedule proceeds through some Bottom 10 teams? Anyone care to revise earlier season predictions now that we have 4 games under our belt with the new staff?
09-26-2018 10:49 AM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #649
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
I will. Based on USM, I think our win tally totals 2, 3 at the outside this year. That is a change from the 4, with the outside of 5 that I thought previously.
09-26-2018 02:00 PM
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Post: #650
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
I am sticking with four, considering our schedule. Not as optimistic about it as a week ago.

We got our hopes up, but it is good to remember that nearly all of us expected to be 1-4 at the end of September.
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2018 10:57 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
09-26-2018 02:07 PM
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loki_the_bubba Offline
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Post: #651
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(09-26-2018 02:07 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I am sticking with four, comsidering our schedule. Not as optimistic about as a week ago.

We got out hopes up, but it is good to remember that nearly all of us expected to be 1-4 at the end of September.

Concur completely.
09-26-2018 03:28 PM
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greyowl72 Online
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Post: #652
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
I'm sticking with 4. Still have 9 games left. And, arguably, the weaker part of our schedule is coming up. I think we will see some improvements.
09-26-2018 05:45 PM
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Post: #653
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
My oldest son, now 25 and a teacher in a town north of Austin, made his first appearance at a Rice event in 1993, was frequently a towel boy during the Michael Harris years, got to meet and know Austin and Chris during their years, was ecstatic in Omaha in 2003, cried after the TAMU loss in 2004, wore a James Casey jersey at Texans games and was part of our gang at the sad Liberty Bowl. Grew up Rice, but being out of town for college and now work has not experienced as much in the recent years (lucky him). He was in town for the Astros and the Dallas-Texans game, went to his first Rice FB game last night since early in the season two years ago. We were talking about what a mess it has become and he observed, without my prompt, what I have been saying for years and what must be intently obvious to the casual observer, that being that Rice is just not making an effort. I tried to counter a bit, very little, but he noted "isn't it obvious"?

I'd like to thank the BOT and Leebron for all this and wish them further success on convincing more donors to build more facilities that are barely utilized (see house, opera) or ultimately won't be used (see Center, Patterson)and at the same time require tuition/fee increases since the donations for those facilities are inadequate to finish or pay for maintenance and operational expenses, but it looks good on your resume (all that income looked good for Enron, but don't worry, cash flow is just not important any more). Remember death by neglect is still death but the great thing about that approach is you have plausible deniability and but unlike death by sword, there is no blood on your hands. I gave them all the support they needed, I just don't understand what happened.

The first lines at a future press conference: "Despite a terrific effort over time by our coaches. student-athletes, and administration, it has become obvious that the Rice community will be better served to move to Division III. We thank Southwestern and Trinity for sponsoring our admittance to their conference. The return to playing Rice Football at the historical corner of South Main and University will commence next season after expansion of the stands to accommodate 10,000 fans. Sadly, that portion of the campus held by Rice Stadium is too valuable to accommodate the two-three high school games that outdrew Rice in the last few years. Accordingly, it will leveled and replaced with a below ground parking garage and a facility for the English and French departments as well as and more importantly all of the key administrative staff whose necessary and justifiable growth of more than 25%/year over the last 20 years has outpaced the ability to provide them the luxurious offices that are needed so that Rice can recruit the top talent needed in those positions."
(This post was last modified: 10-07-2018 09:25 AM by texowl2.)
10-07-2018 09:10 AM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #654
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(10-07-2018 09:10 AM)texowl2 Wrote:  My oldest son, now 25 and a teacher in a town north of Austin, made his first appearance at a Rice event in 1993, was frequently a towel boy during the Michael Harris years, got to meet and know Austin and Chris during their years, was ecstatic in Omaha in 2003, cried after the TAMU loss in 2004, wore a James Casey jersey at Texans games and was part of our gang at the sad Liberty Bowl. Grew up Rice, but being out of town for college and now work has not experienced as much in the recent years (lucky him). He was in town for the Astros and the Dallas-Texans game, went to his first Rice FB game last night since early in the season two years ago. We were talking about what a mess it has become and he observed, without my prompt, what I have been saying for years and what must be intently obvious to the casual observer, that being that Rice is just not making an effort. I tried to counter a bit, very little, but he noted "isn't it obvious"?

I'd like to thank the BOT and Leebron for all this and wish them further success on convincing more donors to build more facilities that are barely utilized (see house, opera) or ultimately won't be used (see Center, Patterson and at the same time require tuition/fee increases as such the donations for those facilities are inadequate to finish or pay for maintenance and operational expenses, but it looks good on your resume (all that income looked good for Enron, but don't worry, cash flow is just not important any more). Remember death by neglect is still death but the great thing about that approach is you have plausible deniability and but unlike death by sword, there is no blood on your hands. I gave them all the support they needed, I just don't understand what happened.

The first lines at a future press conference: "Despite a terrific effort over time by our coaches. student-athletes, and administration, it has become obvious that the Rice community will be better served to move to Division III. We thank Southwestern and Trinity for sponsoring our admittance to their conference. The return to playing Rice Football at the historical corner of South Main and University will commence next season after expansion of the stands to accommodate 10,000 fans. Sadly, that portion of the campus held by Rice Stadium is too valuable to accommodate the two-three high school games that outdrew Rice in the last few years. Accordingly, it will leveled and replaced with a below ground parking garage and a facility for the English and French departments as well as and more importantly all of the key administrative staff whose necessary and justifiable growth of more than 25%/year over the last 20 years has outpaced the ability to provide them the luxurious offices that are needed so that Rice can recruit the top talent needed in those positions."

Best. Post. Ever.
10-07-2018 09:14 AM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #655
Exclamation RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
No need. here it it...we have been Transformed! Thanks admin (and Bailiff)

(10-13-2018 05:37 PM)owl40 Wrote:  We can queue the thread of 'worst Rice Football team of all-time' (vs. worst coaching of all time). The UTEP game will answer 'worst FBS team in 2018' conversation. Have to give UTEP edge right now as they are trending like they are improving each week while this team peaked in early-September and gone backwards in every game since returning from Hawaii.

For worst Rice team ever, I vote for this team against last years team in the finals for discussion with Hat's 05 team in the conversation and maybe some of the teams from late 70's and 83/84 but I was too young to opine on those.

The 88 team lost to Texas and Arkansas by a TD, Tech by 2, and I believe A&M (who won SWC and went to Cotton Bowl) was less than a two-score game. Does anyone here really think this team or last years team could be competitive against a SWC schedule? The conversation has to recognize the competition and the powderpuff schedules of today vs. playing top 50 teams each week.

This team may not have the worst coaching staff. That is a different debate with Berndt, Hagan, DB, etc. in that conversation. Bloom is not (and hopefully never) in that conversation but this team IMO is the least talented team in history of Rice Football. Bloom can draw up more plays in the dirt but without a QB, DB's who can defend deep ball, and offensive/defensive interior that can't block/get off blocks...does not matter. Future depends on his recruiting skills. Have to hang your hat on that for now. Will be important for Bloom to sell 'hope' to the few left that care on new kids coming in that fit his system.

Right now, current guys do appear to play hard but the team is unwatchable for over a month now.
10-13-2018 07:14 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #656
Exclamation RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
A bit different perspective here, but remember when Scott Frost was everyone's darling last year for his unofficial "national championship" at UCF? Now, at Nebraska, he's having a heck of a time even getting the motor started. And that's a program with a storied history and its own, real National Championships, plural. Sure, it's different for them now in the Big 10 (a mistake so far), but isn't a guy better off staying at a G5 if he can get them to the Access Bowl more often than not? I guess the money's quite a bit better, so there's that, but I'm speaking strictly about coaching opportunity once you have built up a G5 into a solid year after year winner/contender/P5 spoiler:

link: (see the middle of article) http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...tic-week-7

That's what I always (and sometimes still) saw/see as Rice's true potential: a consistent G5 winner, on the cusp of moving up (if that's even still possible anymore) but a headache of a opponent and a more-often-than-not Access Bowl threat. Of course, we'd have to get there if the first place, but as long as the admin was comfortable paying something reasonably close to an alternative P5 bottom dweller salary, why leave once you've built it? TCU's not a great example, but TCU and mostly Boise show it's not so bad to be king of the smaller pond(s). (I'm Not talking about lower divisions like FCS, D-II or D-III.)

Thoughts?

Quote:1. Scott Frost, Nebraska. Per ESPN's metrics, with a little over a minute to play, the Huskers had a 98.7 percent chance to snap their losing streak, earn Frost his first win, and turn the page on one of the darkest periods in program history. Instead? Well, those stats aren't making Frost feel any better.

2. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona. Remember how good Khalil Tate was last season? This season, Arizona's offense is the complete opposite of that. Oh, and Jimbo Fisher's strong start at Texas A&M is a nice bit of salt in the wound for Sumlin.

3. Chad Morris, Arkansas. It says something that Morris' team blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter to remain winless, and it's still not the worst thing that happened to a new coach this week. Whew pig.

4. Mike Bloomgren, Rice. The Owls lost 42-0 to UAB, which wasn't even a program two years ago, and they've scored a grand total of three points in their past two games. But, hey, it takes time to fix Rice. Unless it's minute rice. That stuff's good.

5. Willie Taggart, Florida State. He had the week off, which isn't good for buyout-related internet fundraising.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2018 01:01 PM by GoodOwl.)
10-17-2018 12:33 PM
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illiniowl Offline
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Post: #657
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(10-17-2018 12:33 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  A bit different perspective here, but remember when Scott Frost was everyone's darling last year for his unofficial "national championship" at UCF? Now, at Nebraska, he's having a heck of a time even getting the motor started. And that's a program with a storied history and its own, real National Championships, plural. Sure, it's different for them now in the Big 10 (a mistake so far), but isn't a guy better off staying at a G5 if he can get them to the Access Bowl more often than not? I guess the money's quite a bit better, so there's that, but I'm speaking strictly about coaching opportunity once you have built up a G5 into a solid year after year winner/contender/P5 spoiler:

link: (see the middle of article) http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...tic-week-7

That's what I always (and sometimes still) saw/see as Rice's true potential: a consistent G5 winner, on the cusp of moving up (if that's even still possible anymore) but a headache of a opponent and a more-often-than-not Access Bowl threat. Of course, we'd have to get there if the first place, but as long as the admin was comfortable paying something reasonably close to an alternative P5 bottom dweller salary, why leave once you've built it? TCU's not a great example, but TCU and mostly Boise show it's not so bad to be king of the smaller pond(s). (I'm Not talking about lower divisions like FCS, D-II or D-III.)

Thoughts?

Quote:1. Scott Frost, Nebraska. Per ESPN's metrics, with a little over a minute to play, the Huskers had a 98.7 percent chance to snap their losing streak, earn Frost his first win, and turn the page on one of the darkest periods in program history. Instead? Well, those stats aren't making Frost feel any better.

2. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona. Remember how good Khalil Tate was last season? This season, Arizona's offense is the complete opposite of that. Oh, and Jimbo Fisher's strong start at Texas A&M is a nice bit of salt in the wound for Sumlin.

3. Chad Morris, Arkansas. It says something that Morris' team blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter to remain winless, and it's still not the worst thing that happened to a new coach this week. Whew pig.

4. Mike Bloomgren, Rice. The Owls lost 42-0 to UAB, which wasn't even a program two years ago, and they've scored a grand total of three points in their past two games. But, hey, it takes time to fix Rice. Unless it's minute rice. That stuff's good.

5. Willie Taggart, Florida State. He had the week off, which isn't good for buyout-related internet fundraising.

You answered your own question with "the money's quite a bit better." Astronomically better. P5 schools are getting tens of millions per year in TV revenue, G5 schools tiny fractions of that. No G5 school, coach, fan, what have you, would rationally choose to stay G5 over P5 if they had a choice.

To the extent you were just talking about coaching, Scott Frost will be fine at Nebraska and really, the likelihood is that Nebraska and UCF will be in the same number of NY6 bowls this year anyway (all UCF's toughest games are yet to come and they just barely beat a mediocre Memphis). If Frost fails at Nebraska and he's fired in a few years, he'll walk away with more money than he would have made in triple the time at UCF, and he could go right back to another top-tier G5 job if not a lower-tier P5. If Bloomgren manages to merit P5 interest in a few years, he would be an idiot not to grab the opportunity. The salaries are higher, the money flowing into the programs makes sustained success easier to achieve, the bar for success is lower, etc.

Going back to the schools'/fans' perspectives, having a relatively slim shot at the access bowl doesn't come close to making up for all the other yawning differences between even the lowliest P5s and the top G5s. A G5 school does get a decent reward for making the access bowl but I believe a healthy chunk of it has to turned over to the conference to be divvied up so that payout doesn't really end up altering the calculus. And you only get that if you finish #1 out of the 65 or so G5 schools, which is pretty hard. Not even Boise or TCU ever made the access bowl/BCS "more often than not" in any 10-year period and I would not expect any school ever to be able to do that. Remember, UCF making a BCS bowl against Baylor was not only not a guarantee of sustained success, it wasn't even a guarantee they would never go 0-12 and have to start over from scratch.

The prize for just missing out on the access bowl and finishing #2 out of all of G5? The proverbial "set of steak knives" from Glengarry Glen Ross: likely some nondescript bowl against another G5 team, and it gets worse from there.

Oh, and the access bowl is not the playoff and no G5 team will EVER be allowed in the playoff.

What, then, is the point of playing G5 football, and more specifically, what is the point of Rice playing G5 football? I could see it if we were a non-flagship public school content to play other nearby, similarly-situated schools and maintain/develop some rivalries, like the vast majority of the rest of G5, but we're not. I could also see it if we were willing to invest like crazy and basically try to make it a launching pad back to P5 (a la TCU, Louisville), but we're not. And the kicker is that the G5 conference we've managed to land in is so spectacularly ill-suited for us and so off-putting to Rice alums and students as to actively depress our ability to even be competitive at this level, much less dominating. So I really fail to see the point.
10-18-2018 12:13 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #658
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(10-18-2018 12:13 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 12:33 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  A bit different perspective here, but remember when Scott Frost was everyone's darling last year for his unofficial "national championship" at UCF? Now, at Nebraska, he's having a heck of a time even getting the motor started. And that's a program with a storied history and its own, real National Championships, plural. Sure, it's different for them now in the Big 10 (a mistake so far), but isn't a guy better off staying at a G5 if he can get them to the Access Bowl more often than not? I guess the money's quite a bit better, so there's that, but I'm speaking strictly about coaching opportunity once you have built up a G5 into a solid year after year winner/contender/P5 spoiler:
link: (see the middle of article) http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...tic-week-7
That's what I always (and sometimes still) saw/see as Rice's true potential: a consistent G5 winner, on the cusp of moving up (if that's even still possible anymore) but a headache of a opponent and a more-often-than-not Access Bowl threat. Of course, we'd have to get there if the first place, but as long as the admin was comfortable paying something reasonably close to an alternative P5 bottom dweller salary, why leave once you've built it? TCU's not a great example, but TCU and mostly Boise show it's not so bad to be king of the smaller pond(s). (I'm Not talking about lower divisions like FCS, D-II or D-III.)
Thoughts?
Quote:1. Scott Frost, Nebraska. Per ESPN's metrics, with a little over a minute to play, the Huskers had a 98.7 percent chance to snap their losing streak, earn Frost his first win, and turn the page on one of the darkest periods in program history. Instead? Well, those stats aren't making Frost feel any better.
2. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona. Remember how good Khalil Tate was last season? This season, Arizona's offense is the complete opposite of that. Oh, and Jimbo Fisher's strong start at Texas A&M is a nice bit of salt in the wound for Sumlin.
3. Chad Morris, Arkansas. It says something that Morris' team blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter to remain winless, and it's still not the worst thing that happened to a new coach this week. Whew pig.
4. Mike Bloomgren, Rice. The Owls lost 42-0 to UAB, which wasn't even a program two years ago, and they've scored a grand total of three points in their past two games. But, hey, it takes time to fix Rice. Unless it's minute rice. That stuff's good.
5. Willie Taggart, Florida State. He had the week off, which isn't good for buyout-related internet fundraising.
You answered your own question with "the money's quite a bit better." Astronomically better. P5 schools are getting tens of millions per year in TV revenue, G5 schools tiny fractions of that. No G5 school, coach, fan, what have you, would rationally choose to stay G5 over P5 if they had a choice.
To the extent you were just talking about coaching, Scott Frost will be fine at Nebraska and really, the likelihood is that Nebraska and UCF will be in the same number of NY6 bowls this year anyway (all UCF's toughest games are yet to come and they just barely beat a mediocre Memphis). If Frost fails at Nebraska and he's fired in a few years, he'll walk away with more money than he would have made in triple the time at UCF, and he could go right back to another top-tier G5 job if not a lower-tier P5. If Bloomgren manages to merit P5 interest in a few years, he would be an idiot not to grab the opportunity. The salaries are higher, the money flowing into the programs makes sustained success easier to achieve, the bar for success is lower, etc.
Going back to the schools'/fans' perspectives, having a relatively slim shot at the access bowl doesn't come close to making up for all the other yawning differences between even the lowliest P5s and the top G5s. A G5 school does get a decent reward for making the access bowl but I believe a healthy chunk of it has to turned over to the conference to be divvied up so that payout doesn't really end up altering the calculus. And you only get that if you finish #1 out of the 65 or so G5 schools, which is pretty hard. Not even Boise or TCU ever made the access bowl/BCS "more often than not" in any 10-year period and I would not expect any school ever to be able to do that. Remember, UCF making a BCS bowl against Baylor was not only not a guarantee of sustained success, it wasn't even a guarantee they would never go 0-12 and have to start over from scratch.
The prize for just missing out on the access bowl and finishing #2 out of all of G5? The proverbial "set of steak knives" from Glengarry Glen Ross: likely some nondescript bowl against another G5 team, and it gets worse from there.
Oh, and the access bowl is not the playoff and no G5 team will EVER be allowed in the playoff.
What, then, is the point of playing G5 football, and more specifically, what is the point of Rice playing G5 football? I could see it if we were a non-flagship public school content to play other nearby, similarly-situated schools and maintain/develop some rivalries, like the vast majority of the rest of G5, but we're not. I could also see it if we were willing to invest like crazy and basically try to make it a launching pad back to P5 (a la TCU, Louisville), but we're not. And the kicker is that the G5 conference we've managed to land in is so spectacularly ill-suited for us and so off-putting to Rice alums and students as to actively depress our ability to even be competitive at this level, much less dominating. So I really fail to see the point.

I understand the dissatisfaction with CUSA, but I still have the same question. What instead?

What other options are available to us?
10-18-2018 04:43 PM
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Post: #659
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(10-18-2018 04:43 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(10-18-2018 12:13 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 12:33 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  A bit different perspective here, but remember when Scott Frost was everyone's darling last year for his unofficial "national championship" at UCF? Now, at Nebraska, he's having a heck of a time even getting the motor started. And that's a program with a storied history and its own, real National Championships, plural. Sure, it's different for them now in the Big 10 (a mistake so far), but isn't a guy better off staying at a G5 if he can get them to the Access Bowl more often than not? I guess the money's quite a bit better, so there's that, but I'm speaking strictly about coaching opportunity once you have built up a G5 into a solid year after year winner/contender/P5 spoiler:
link: (see the middle of article) http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...tic-week-7
That's what I always (and sometimes still) saw/see as Rice's true potential: a consistent G5 winner, on the cusp of moving up (if that's even still possible anymore) but a headache of a opponent and a more-often-than-not Access Bowl threat. Of course, we'd have to get there if the first place, but as long as the admin was comfortable paying something reasonably close to an alternative P5 bottom dweller salary, why leave once you've built it? TCU's not a great example, but TCU and mostly Boise show it's not so bad to be king of the smaller pond(s). (I'm Not talking about lower divisions like FCS, D-II or D-III.)
Thoughts?
Quote:1. Scott Frost, Nebraska. Per ESPN's metrics, with a little over a minute to play, the Huskers had a 98.7 percent chance to snap their losing streak, earn Frost his first win, and turn the page on one of the darkest periods in program history. Instead? Well, those stats aren't making Frost feel any better.
2. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona. Remember how good Khalil Tate was last season? This season, Arizona's offense is the complete opposite of that. Oh, and Jimbo Fisher's strong start at Texas A&M is a nice bit of salt in the wound for Sumlin.
3. Chad Morris, Arkansas. It says something that Morris' team blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter to remain winless, and it's still not the worst thing that happened to a new coach this week. Whew pig.
4. Mike Bloomgren, Rice. The Owls lost 42-0 to UAB, which wasn't even a program two years ago, and they've scored a grand total of three points in their past two games. But, hey, it takes time to fix Rice. Unless it's minute rice. That stuff's good.
5. Willie Taggart, Florida State. He had the week off, which isn't good for buyout-related internet fundraising.
You answered your own question with "the money's quite a bit better." Astronomically better. P5 schools are getting tens of millions per year in TV revenue, G5 schools tiny fractions of that. No G5 school, coach, fan, what have you, would rationally choose to stay G5 over P5 if they had a choice.
To the extent you were just talking about coaching, Scott Frost will be fine at Nebraska and really, the likelihood is that Nebraska and UCF will be in the same number of NY6 bowls this year anyway (all UCF's toughest games are yet to come and they just barely beat a mediocre Memphis). If Frost fails at Nebraska and he's fired in a few years, he'll walk away with more money than he would have made in triple the time at UCF, and he could go right back to another top-tier G5 job if not a lower-tier P5. If Bloomgren manages to merit P5 interest in a few years, he would be an idiot not to grab the opportunity. The salaries are higher, the money flowing into the programs makes sustained success easier to achieve, the bar for success is lower, etc.
Going back to the schools'/fans' perspectives, having a relatively slim shot at the access bowl doesn't come close to making up for all the other yawning differences between even the lowliest P5s and the top G5s. A G5 school does get a decent reward for making the access bowl but I believe a healthy chunk of it has to turned over to the conference to be divvied up so that payout doesn't really end up altering the calculus. And you only get that if you finish #1 out of the 65 or so G5 schools, which is pretty hard. Not even Boise or TCU ever made the access bowl/BCS "more often than not" in any 10-year period and I would not expect any school ever to be able to do that. Remember, UCF making a BCS bowl against Baylor was not only not a guarantee of sustained success, it wasn't even a guarantee they would never go 0-12 and have to start over from scratch.
The prize for just missing out on the access bowl and finishing #2 out of all of G5? The proverbial "set of steak knives" from Glengarry Glen Ross: likely some nondescript bowl against another G5 team, and it gets worse from there.
Oh, and the access bowl is not the playoff and no G5 team will EVER be allowed in the playoff.
What, then, is the point of playing G5 football, and more specifically, what is the point of Rice playing G5 football? I could see it if we were a non-flagship public school content to play other nearby, similarly-situated schools and maintain/develop some rivalries, like the vast majority of the rest of G5, but we're not. I could also see it if we were willing to invest like crazy and basically try to make it a launching pad back to P5 (a la TCU, Louisville), but we're not. And the kicker is that the G5 conference we've managed to land in is so spectacularly ill-suited for us and so off-putting to Rice alums and students as to actively depress our ability to even be competitive at this level, much less dominating. So I really fail to see the point.

I understand the dissatisfaction with CUSA, but I still have the same question. What instead?

What other options are available to us?

At this point, not much else. But the general dissatisfaction is that we knee capped ourselves, let gangrene set in and now are forced to accept limited mobility and no future of real improvement.

The fact that Sunbelt dba CUSA level conference was apparent years and years ago means that the question of what instead should have been asked and acted on then.
10-18-2018 05:00 PM
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exowlswimmer Offline
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Post: #660
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(10-18-2018 05:00 PM)Antarius Wrote:  
(10-18-2018 04:43 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(10-18-2018 12:13 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 12:33 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  A bit different perspective here, but remember when Scott Frost was everyone's darling last year for his unofficial "national championship" at UCF? Now, at Nebraska, he's having a heck of a time even getting the motor started. And that's a program with a storied history and its own, real National Championships, plural. Sure, it's different for them now in the Big 10 (a mistake so far), but isn't a guy better off staying at a G5 if he can get them to the Access Bowl more often than not? I guess the money's quite a bit better, so there's that, but I'm speaking strictly about coaching opportunity once you have built up a G5 into a solid year after year winner/contender/P5 spoiler:
link: (see the middle of article) http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...tic-week-7
That's what I always (and sometimes still) saw/see as Rice's true potential: a consistent G5 winner, on the cusp of moving up (if that's even still possible anymore) but a headache of a opponent and a more-often-than-not Access Bowl threat. Of course, we'd have to get there if the first place, but as long as the admin was comfortable paying something reasonably close to an alternative P5 bottom dweller salary, why leave once you've built it? TCU's not a great example, but TCU and mostly Boise show it's not so bad to be king of the smaller pond(s). (I'm Not talking about lower divisions like FCS, D-II or D-III.)
Thoughts?
Quote:1. Scott Frost, Nebraska. Per ESPN's metrics, with a little over a minute to play, the Huskers had a 98.7 percent chance to snap their losing streak, earn Frost his first win, and turn the page on one of the darkest periods in program history. Instead? Well, those stats aren't making Frost feel any better.
2. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona. Remember how good Khalil Tate was last season? This season, Arizona's offense is the complete opposite of that. Oh, and Jimbo Fisher's strong start at Texas A&M is a nice bit of salt in the wound for Sumlin.
3. Chad Morris, Arkansas. It says something that Morris' team blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter to remain winless, and it's still not the worst thing that happened to a new coach this week. Whew pig.
4. Mike Bloomgren, Rice. The Owls lost 42-0 to UAB, which wasn't even a program two years ago, and they've scored a grand total of three points in their past two games. But, hey, it takes time to fix Rice. Unless it's minute rice. That stuff's good.
5. Willie Taggart, Florida State. He had the week off, which isn't good for buyout-related internet fundraising.
You answered your own question with "the money's quite a bit better." Astronomically better. P5 schools are getting tens of millions per year in TV revenue, G5 schools tiny fractions of that. No G5 school, coach, fan, what have you, would rationally choose to stay G5 over P5 if they had a choice.
To the extent you were just talking about coaching, Scott Frost will be fine at Nebraska and really, the likelihood is that Nebraska and UCF will be in the same number of NY6 bowls this year anyway (all UCF's toughest games are yet to come and they just barely beat a mediocre Memphis). If Frost fails at Nebraska and he's fired in a few years, he'll walk away with more money than he would have made in triple the time at UCF, and he could go right back to another top-tier G5 job if not a lower-tier P5. If Bloomgren manages to merit P5 interest in a few years, he would be an idiot not to grab the opportunity. The salaries are higher, the money flowing into the programs makes sustained success easier to achieve, the bar for success is lower, etc.
Going back to the schools'/fans' perspectives, having a relatively slim shot at the access bowl doesn't come close to making up for all the other yawning differences between even the lowliest P5s and the top G5s. A G5 school does get a decent reward for making the access bowl but I believe a healthy chunk of it has to turned over to the conference to be divvied up so that payout doesn't really end up altering the calculus. And you only get that if you finish #1 out of the 65 or so G5 schools, which is pretty hard. Not even Boise or TCU ever made the access bowl/BCS "more often than not" in any 10-year period and I would not expect any school ever to be able to do that. Remember, UCF making a BCS bowl against Baylor was not only not a guarantee of sustained success, it wasn't even a guarantee they would never go 0-12 and have to start over from scratch.
The prize for just missing out on the access bowl and finishing #2 out of all of G5? The proverbial "set of steak knives" from Glengarry Glen Ross: likely some nondescript bowl against another G5 team, and it gets worse from there.
Oh, and the access bowl is not the playoff and no G5 team will EVER be allowed in the playoff.
What, then, is the point of playing G5 football, and more specifically, what is the point of Rice playing G5 football? I could see it if we were a non-flagship public school content to play other nearby, similarly-situated schools and maintain/develop some rivalries, like the vast majority of the rest of G5, but we're not. I could also see it if we were willing to invest like crazy and basically try to make it a launching pad back to P5 (a la TCU, Louisville), but we're not. And the kicker is that the G5 conference we've managed to land in is so spectacularly ill-suited for us and so off-putting to Rice alums and students as to actively depress our ability to even be competitive at this level, much less dominating. So I really fail to see the point.

I understand the dissatisfaction with CUSA, but I still have the same question. What instead?

What other options are available to us?

At this point, not much else. But the general dissatisfaction is that we knee capped ourselves, let gangrene set in and now are forced to accept limited mobility and no future of real improvement.

The fact that Sunbelt dba CUSA level conference was apparent years and years ago means that the question of what instead should have been asked and acted on then.

Operation “Sellout”
10-18-2018 05:30 PM
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