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Transformation vs Incrementalism
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Rick Gerlach Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-12-2015 03:56 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(01-12-2015 03:34 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(01-12-2015 03:29 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  
(01-12-2015 11:11 AM)Antarius Wrote:  
(01-12-2015 12:35 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Not bad, Ant. you win thee perceptivenss award for the Parliament, but still, the second one needs clarifying.

of course, if Bailiff is replaced, the new guy may be able to do more. Or he might do less, a lot less. ask our friends at SoMiss how that works. what I don't buy is that replacing Bailiff is an automatic upgrade. Call it what it it is, a gamble. as for names, we have been given a couple: Leach, and "some young humgry guy".

I get that progress may be too slow. Sure a lot slower than I would have liked, but as with any gamble, we must assess what we are risking against the hoped for gains, amd the liklihood of achieving them. Anybody But Bailiff seems like a bad gamble to me. Hire Urban Meyer sounds good. iHire unnamed assisstant? How much better than Bailiff must the guy be to warrant that bet?

show me a good bet and I will line up with yalll to get him. Don't and I won't.

Thanks for the clarification.

The other side, that Walt is on is that the realignment window is rapidly closing. As a result, we have finite time to make a jump to the big leagues. As the DB led progress is slow, we may not (and likely wont) make it to the TCU/Boise level in 2-3 years. Given this, any gamble is better than none as we need to go all in.

This season had some highs such as the bowl game and some lows like ODU and LT. IMO next year will be a good test to see how high we can go. We definitely don't want to make a hasty decision.

TCU and Boise each took more than 10 years to reach their current positions. One of them is p5, the other is considered at the top of the G5 division. Sounds like you're expecting a coaching hire to achieve something faster than TCU when we aren't providing the same financial or attendance support, and not at least noting that TCU kept a single coach (who had detractors in their fan base in the first 3or 4 years after Franchione left)

And Boise State is better off than us, but still has their nose up against the plate glass window.

Come on, Rick-- it took TCU 10 years because there was a very stable P5 conference alignment from the late 1990s to 2010. Boise is NEVER going to get there due to their location-- sad, but true. We do not have to achieve Boise St. level of on-field performance to become more attractive than them to the P5s.

Seems like an odd reply. If it was so difficult for TCU to move up that it took them 10 years in a stable climate, wouldn't one expect it to be even more difficult if the climate is constantly changing?

I assume you're actually advocating that since things are in such upheaval, that we do not have 10 years from the start of the climb to reach the level TCU was at when they got the invite? I'd say that we're about 3 years into our current climb (assuming that the climb we need to make did not start with the hiring of Bailiff).
Well a climb starts when you actually start climbing, and on the football performance side that would be 3 years.04-bow

Facilities improvements? 1 month? Or when we break ground?

Attendance?07-coffee3
01-12-2015 04:13 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-12-2015 04:13 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  Well a climb starts when you actually start climbing, and on the football performance side that would be 3 years.04-bow

Facilities improvements? 1 month? Or when we break ground?

Attendance?07-coffee3

Facilities: Didn't TG start the climb with a bunch of facilities improvements before his one year? That's when I first found this board, and I recall Grungy and a few others did a superb job of daily documenting the construction with photos -can you take some of the EZF as it is being built as well? (it was a photo search for Rice that turned up the football stadium improvements, which led me to this board.)

Under TG Rice: replaced Astroturf/crowned field with FieldTurf/flat field; replaced decades-old wooden seats with aluminum; pressure washed and painting of concrete surfaces (I am one who misses the more festive and Rice-oriented Sine waves around the drab tub of the gray wall surrounding the field. I understand everyone was pissed at TG for the slimy way he left, but painting over the sine-waves was spiteful); built/installed the much-needed Jess Neely Scoreboard and Video screen in North End Zone; Rice FB 18-wheeler (granted, could have done w/o the TG ad on the side))? Would that not be the real start of FB facility improvements, and now finally getting built upon after the RG mess?

Football Performance Climb Start: Would that not have been in our 2008 season where Rice went 10-3, tied for 1st in CUSA West, and went to our first bowl game in decades?

Then we regressed under DBD for 3 years wherw we went 2-10, 4-8, 4-8.

Then we went 7-6 in 2012 and 10-4 in 2013 and this past year regressed back down to 8-5.

So using your statement of "a climb starts when you actually start climbing," either this year or next would be the third re-start of the climb under DBD, if we do in fact exceed 8-5 next season?


As to the Butch and Sundance analogy, I have to point out that in that movie, both times fighting the posse was the move that got you killed (cornered by the posse and outnumbered on the cliff, and once again cornered in the small village by the posse in Bolivia at movie's end. At least they chose to come out firing all their guns against the P5 posse at the end instead of being conservative and waiting to take their lumps hoping not to bleed to death in the little room they were trapped. Taking the jump at the cliff, even not knowing how to swim for Sundance, even not knowing if they would survive it, was the move that kept you moving forward.

To quote my dad, a two-time bracelet winner, "In order to win you are going to have to win hands you shouldn't, and be brave enough to recognize opportunities to steal pots, in poker and in life. You can't play conservative all the time and expect that to get you victory in a tournament."
01-12-2015 09:37 PM
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Rick Gerlach Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-12-2015 09:37 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(01-12-2015 04:13 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  Well a climb starts when you actually start climbing, and on the football performance side that would be 3 years.04-bow

Facilities improvements? 1 month? Or when we break ground?

Attendance?07-coffee3

Facilities: Didn't TG start the climb with a bunch of facilities improvements before his one year? That's when I first found this board, and I recall Grungy and a few others did a superb job of daily documenting the construction with photos -can you take some of the EZF as it is being built as well? (it was a photo search for Rice that turned up the football stadium improvements, which led me to this board.)

Under TG Rice: replaced Astroturf/crowned field with FieldTurf/flat field; replaced decades-old wooden seats with aluminum; pressure washed and painting of concrete surfaces (I am one who misses the more festive and Rice-oriented Sine waves around the drab tub of the gray wall surrounding the field. I understand everyone was pissed at TG for the slimy way he left, but painting over the sine-waves was spiteful); built/installed the much-needed Jess Neely Scoreboard and Video screen in North End Zone; Rice FB 18-wheeler (granted, could have done w/o the TG ad on the side))? Would that not be the real start of FB facility improvements, and now finally getting built upon after the RG mess?

Football Performance Climb Start: Would that not have been in our 2008 season where Rice went 10-3, tied for 1st in CUSA West, and went to our first bowl game in decades?

Then we regressed under DBD for 3 years wherw we went 2-10, 4-8, 4-8.

Then we went 7-6 in 2012 and 10-4 in 2013 and this past year regressed back down to 8-5.

So using your statement of "a climb starts when you actually start climbing," either this year or next would be the third re-start of the climb under DBD, if we do in fact exceed 8-5 next season?


As to the Butch and Sundance analogy, I have to point out that in that movie, both times fighting the posse was the move that got you killed (cornered by the posse and outnumbered on the cliff, and once again cornered in the small village by the posse in Bolivia at movie's end. At least they chose to come out firing all their guns against the P5 posse at the end instead of being conservative and waiting to take their lumps hoping not to bleed to death in the little room they were trapped. Taking the jump at the cliff, even not knowing how to swim for Sundance, even not knowing if they would survive it, was the move that kept you moving forward.

To quote my dad, a two-time bracelet winner, "In order to win you are going to have to win hands you shouldn't, and be brave enough to recognize opportunities to steal pots, in poker and in life. You can't play conservative all the time and expect that to get you victory in a tournament."

If you count a drop off from 10 to 8 wins as a regression, given the complete history of Rice football, including our glory days, than almost no program in America can claim an upward trajectory over 3 years.

We are in the midst of a 3-year period where the program has clearly improved on where they've been since 1994-1997 or 1998 (and even those years had 'regressions'. 1995 was a strong regression by your definition). I'm basing that on our rankings then and now.

Even those who want to change coaches (the majority of that small group anyway) would certainly argue that 2012-2014 represent a real improvement over we've been for the 10 years prior, and that it is at least fair to point to our improvement in conference in 2012 and the bowl win as the start of what has amounted to a climb in our football fortunes for the last 3 years.

You certainly don't have to agree with any of that. But you really can't point to any other period of time in Rice's football history where ANY of our coaches have produced even this level of consistency. Jess Neely's teams cycled at their best. His best year (1949) occurred 17 years before he retired from Rice. That's not a criticism (by me at least), just an observation.

As I've noted elsewhere, there is no reasonable way to compare 1940's and 1950's era college football to the collegiate environment of the 1970's, much less the world we're competing in today. Way too many things have changed, often drastically.

As to improvements, Todd got a scoreboard. Ken got us a nice weight room facility. Small potatoes compared to other schools, and the description of our current locker rooms on this board, and the lack of any stadium improvements in 60 years makes the current end zone facilities seem like the first real start to football facilities' improvements since 1950. And that's not on Todd, Ken or our other coaches, at least not for the most part.

Based on 2012-2014, changing coaches today would be a risk, and one that only a very few would be willing to take. That's a dynamic condition of course. In two years, if we're no longer winning, (or if we were to return to 1 or 2 wins next year) I'm sure that your voice will be leading a chorus.

It's hard to read your posts without getting the impression you want the current coaching staff to fail, just so we can roll the dice. That may not be fair or accurate, but it's honestly how I read your posts.
01-12-2015 11:48 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-11-2015 11:37 PM)Antarius Wrote:  The position that I understand Rick and OO to be taking is that progress may not be as fast as we would like, but it is 1. happening 2. if we were to replace Bailiff with someone else, would they be able to achieve more? Truth is, we don't know the answer to #2. And if we were to consider a replacement, who would it be? MBB was so bad under the last two years of Braun that the argument could be made that anyone would be an improvement, and if not, at least a change. MBB needed transformation. FB could use either at this point.

San Diego fired Schottenheimer after a 14-2 season. They proceeded to never hit that win total again.

We showed up against Fresno like a team on a mission. Never have I seen Rice under Bailiff tackle so well and come out of the tunnel 100% ready to play. Granted, Fresno isn't Oregon, but still, based on this game we know that it is possible for us to play at that level. Next season is a big year and I think that will tell us exactly how far we can go in the future.
I realize Fresno State is your last point of reference because is the last game played and we won therefore we want to feel good by using that game as a point of reference however we have to accept that Fresno State was a bad team. One of the worst we played all season. No QB, No offense, etc.
The game prior to Fresno State was La Tech. (76-31) Not sure why we did not show up on a mission given this game would get us to the conference game.

we play well against the weaker teams but that's not progress.
01-13-2015 01:34 AM
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Post: #25
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-12-2015 11:48 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  
(01-12-2015 09:37 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(01-12-2015 04:13 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  Well a climb starts when you actually start climbing, and on the football performance side that would be 3 years.04-bow

Facilities improvements? 1 month? Or when we break ground?

Attendance?07-coffee3

Facilities: Didn't TG start the climb with a bunch of facilities improvements before his one year? That's when I first found this board, and I recall Grungy and a few others did a superb job of daily documenting the construction with photos -can you take some of the EZF as it is being built as well? (it was a photo search for Rice that turned up the football stadium improvements, which led me to this board.)

Under TG Rice: replaced Astroturf/crowned field with FieldTurf/flat field; replaced decades-old wooden seats with aluminum; pressure washed and painting of concrete surfaces (I am one who misses the more festive and Rice-oriented Sine waves around the drab tub of the gray wall surrounding the field. I understand everyone was pissed at TG for the slimy way he left, but painting over the sine-waves was spiteful); built/installed the much-needed Jess Neely Scoreboard and Video screen in North End Zone; Rice FB 18-wheeler (granted, could have done w/o the TG ad on the side))? Would that not be the real start of FB facility improvements, and now finally getting built upon after the RG mess?

Football Performance Climb Start: Would that not have been in our 2008 season where Rice went 10-3, tied for 1st in CUSA West, and went to our first bowl game in decades?

Then we regressed under DBD for 3 years wherw we went 2-10, 4-8, 4-8.

Then we went 7-6 in 2012 and 10-4 in 2013 and this past year regressed back down to 8-5.

So using your statement of "a climb starts when you actually start climbing," either this year or next would be the third re-start of the climb under DBD, if we do in fact exceed 8-5 next season?


As to the Butch and Sundance analogy, I have to point out that in that movie, both times fighting the posse was the move that got you killed (cornered by the posse and outnumbered on the cliff, and once again cornered in the small village by the posse in Bolivia at movie's end. At least they chose to come out firing all their guns against the P5 posse at the end instead of being conservative and waiting to take their lumps hoping not to bleed to death in the little room they were trapped. Taking the jump at the cliff, even not knowing how to swim for Sundance, even not knowing if they would survive it, was the move that kept you moving forward.

To quote my dad, a two-time bracelet winner, "In order to win you are going to have to win hands you shouldn't, and be brave enough to recognize opportunities to steal pots, in poker and in life. You can't play conservative all the time and expect that to get you victory in a tournament."

If you count a drop off from 10 to 8 wins as a regression, given the complete history of Rice football, including our glory days, than almost no program in America can claim an upward trajectory over 3 years.

We are in the midst of a 3-year period where the program has clearly improved on where they've been since 1994-1997 or 1998 (and even those years had 'regressions'. 1995 was a strong regression by your definition). I'm basing that on our rankings then and now.

Even those who want to change coaches (the majority of that small group anyway) would certainly argue that 2012-2014 represent a real improvement over we've been for the 10 years prior, and that it is at least fair to point to our improvement in conference in 2012 and the bowl win as the start of what has amounted to a climb in our football fortunes for the last 3 years.

You certainly don't have to agree with any of that. But you really can't point to any other period of time in Rice's football history where ANY of our coaches have produced even this level of consistency. Jess Neely's teams cycled at their best. His best year (1949) occurred 17 years before he retired from Rice. That's not a criticism (by me at least), just an observation.

As I've noted elsewhere, there is no reasonable way to compare 1940's and 1950's era college football to the collegiate environment of the 1970's, much less the world we're competing in today. Way too many things have changed, often drastically.

As to improvements, Todd got a scoreboard. Ken got us a nice weight room facility. Small potatoes compared to other schools, and the description of our current locker rooms on this board, and the lack of any stadium improvements in 60 years makes the current end zone facilities seem like the first real start to football facilities' improvements since 1950. And that's not on Todd, Ken or our other coaches, at least not for the most part.

Based on 2012-2014, changing coaches today would be a risk, and one that only a very few would be willing to take. That's a dynamic condition of course. In two years, if we're no longer winning, (or if we were to return to 1 or 2 wins next year) I'm sure that your voice will be leading a chorus.

It's hard to read your posts without getting the impression you want the current coaching staff to fail, just so we can roll the dice. That may not be fair or accurate, but it's honestly how I read your posts.

Rick,
Not sure how you picked up that from the posts. It amazes me to read your posts. You would have a heart attack if you were a Tech or UT supporter. Go read those boards.

With regards to your posts, I read them and always get the impression that you are very defensive, you don't like change and you are satisfied with being average. I don't hear you making to many recommendations when we get it handed to us for example Marshall and La Tech. Games where the excuse of our head coach was that he overworked the players. Against ND and AM where our starting QB stated that the games where no more than glorified practices. We won 8 games, 7 against teams with losing records. UTEP was the only win with a winning record. For some of us, this is not sufficient, we want more. that's all. We can make all the recommendations to get rid of Bailiff but the reality is that it wont happen. He is a good salesman, he says all the right things and knows how to work the system. JK has bought into this so no change is coming.
01-13-2015 01:48 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-12-2015 09:37 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(01-12-2015 04:13 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  Well a climb starts when you actually start climbing, and on the football performance side that would be 3 years.04-bow

Facilities improvements? 1 month? Or when we break ground?

Attendance?07-coffee3

Facilities: Didn't TG start the climb with a bunch of facilities improvements before his one year? That's when I first found this board, and I recall Grungy and a few others did a superb job of daily documenting the construction with photos -can you take some of the EZF as it is being built as well? (it was a photo search for Rice that turned up the football stadium improvements, which led me to this board.)

Under TG Rice: replaced Astroturf/crowned field with FieldTurf/flat field; replaced decades-old wooden seats with aluminum; pressure washed and painting of concrete surfaces (I am one who misses the more festive and Rice-oriented Sine waves around the drab tub of the gray wall surrounding the field. I understand everyone was pissed at TG for the slimy way he left, but painting over the sine-waves was spiteful); built/installed the much-needed Jess Neely Scoreboard and Video screen in North End Zone; Rice FB 18-wheeler (granted, could have done w/o the TG ad on the side))? Would that not be the real start of FB facility improvements, and now finally getting built upon after the RG mess?

Football Performance Climb Start: Would that not have been in our 2008 season where Rice went 10-3, tied for 1st in CUSA West, and went to our first bowl game in decades?

Then we regressed under DBD for 3 years wherw we went 2-10, 4-8, 4-8.

Then we went 7-6 in 2012 and 10-4 in 2013 and this past year regressed back down to 8-5.

So using your statement of "a climb starts when you actually start climbing," either this year or next would be the third re-start of the climb under DBD, if we do in fact exceed 8-5 next season?


As to the Butch and Sundance analogy, I have to point out that in that movie, both times fighting the posse was the move that got you killed (cornered by the posse and outnumbered on the cliff, and once again cornered in the small village by the posse in Bolivia at movie's end. At least they chose to come out firing all their guns against the P5 posse at the end instead of being conservative and waiting to take their lumps hoping not to bleed to death in the little room they were trapped. Taking the jump at the cliff, even not knowing how to swim for Sundance, even not knowing if they would survive it, was the move that kept you moving forward.

To quote my dad, a two-time bracelet winner, "In order to win you are going to have to win hands you shouldn't, and be brave enough to recognize opportunities to steal pots, in poker and in life. You can't play conservative all the time and expect that to get you victory in a tournament."



Well, that was a movie. in real life it's probably not a good idea to jump off a tall cliff into a raging river, especially if you can't swim. and taking on the Bolivian Army may seem romantic, but dead is dead.

assumptions that Bailiff has topped out are just that, assumptions. based on faith, I think.

if yall think all we need to do is put a new warm body in the coach's chair, go for it. it might work. and if it doesn't we can always find another one in four or five years and repeat the experiment.

basically, choose your poison.

goodOwl, your dad is absolutely right about conservative poker play. Ask him how the people who raise and go all in willy nilly fare. T he best find the right time and place - it's called selective aggresion. To quote Kenny Rogers, you have to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold them. i think some of yall are in a big hurry to fold, whenit is tme to hold.
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2015 02:54 AM by OptimisticOwl.)
01-13-2015 02:52 AM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-12-2015 11:48 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  As to improvements, Todd got a scoreboard. Ken got us a nice weight room facility. Small potatoes compared to other schools, and the description of our current locker rooms on this board, and the lack of any stadium improvements in 60 years makes the current end zone facilities seem like the first real start to football facilities' improvements since 1950. And that's not on Todd, Ken or our other coaches, at least not for the most part.

Interesting. You chose to reduce all the football facility improvements I listed to: "got a scoreboard."
Now who's being disingenuous?
For years people complained about the splinters from the wooden bleachers. I guess some take it for granted, but fact is that in the summer before he coached one game at Rice, TG got rid of the old wooden ones and had them replaced with what we have now. Didn't even take him a full year. Plus, the old worn-out Astroturf was replaced with a modern surface. Etc... Etc... To be fair, "the lack of any stadium improvements in 60 years" ended with TG. The fact that they then stalled for 8 years under DBD is curiously omitted in your statement above.

You are correct the locker rooms have been a mess the entire time DBD has been here. He might have at least tried to do what TG did and raised some money himself instead of waiting 8 years for someone else to do it, but he didn't. That is a fact. From my post above:

Under TG Rice: replaced Astroturf/crowned field with FieldTurf/flat field; replaced decades-old wooden seats with aluminum; pressure washed and painting of concrete surfaces (I am one who misses the more festive and Rice-oriented Sine waves around the drab tub of the gray wall surrounding the field. I understand everyone was pissed at TG for the slimy way he left, but painting over the sine-waves was spiteful); built/installed the much-needed Jess Neely Scoreboard and Video screen in North End Zone; Rice FB 18-wheeler (granted, could have done w/o the TG ad on the side))? Would that not be the real start of FB facility improvements, and now finally getting built upon after the RG mess?

(01-12-2015 11:48 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  Based on 2012-2014, changing coaches today would be a risk, and one that only a very few would be willing to take. That's a dynamic condition of course. In two years, if we're no longer winning, (or if we were to return to 1 or 2 wins next year) I'm sure that your voice will be leading a chorus.

I agree that DBD has earned a reprieve at this time. I agree with Owl 69 to put him on a rolling 3 years contract with a very small buyout either way. But to avoid another long term contract that shackles us to him like RG gave him. I'd rather pay him bonuses for accomplishments instead.

Though I do not find the style of play he chooses to coach entertaining, it is a fact that he will be here next year, and probably beyond. I am not advocating sacking him today. But I still do not have any idea what to expect from him year to year and game to game. I don't think he's moved the needle much, but he has gotten it to shake back and forth, which is good, and may be all he can really do for us--we still don't know.

I don't remember anyone before the La Tech game predicting anything close to the historic blowout that made national headlines for Rice for all the wrong reasons. And based on that, I had no idea what would happen in the Hawaii Bowl against the only team with a losing record to make a bowl game, and what turned out to be a mediocre opponent more similar to those we beat this past season than those we lost to. I reserved comment until after I could actually watch that game. I am glad we won, and the kids seemed to have a good time on the trip, which is good.

(01-12-2015 11:48 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  It's hard to read your posts without getting the impression you want the current coaching staff to fail, just so we can roll the dice. That may not be fair or accurate, but it's honestly how I read your posts.

You carry that myopic bias well. Funny, I get taken to task by the DBD advocates on the board for even SUGGESTING that next season I believe it is plausible for DBD and staff to have a shot to go 11-1 or 12-0, where others have said it is more reasonable for us to repeat something like this season, and yet you say I am the one who wants the current coaching staff to fail? No other way to describe it but the DBD advocate's position appears to be the completely a**-backwards logic.

You have every right to your opinion that this is good enough; that DBD is perhaps some guru of a coach, or however you wish to describe it. I certainly have few ideas what you see that's so extraordinary--he's average. He's a nice guy, and he's in a comfortable position that suits his level. Good for him personally, but not so good for Rice in the task it faces getting back to P5 level. In my opinion, if he's not pushed strongly to improve, I don't think he's shown us he will change on his own.

I support him in that he is the current coach and he has raised us back from the 2-10 level once again. Of course, I am aware he took us down there again himself, which some conveniently choose to forget. He is clearly capable of doing it again, and that concerns me and others. Will he? Who knows?

You can re-read others' posts/threads on the quality of the competition he beat in his victories, which, while they are Ws, are on the whole not very impressive. He just has enough of them now to get to the G5-G5 bowl games a conference like CUSA has. He still has a losing record at Rice going into year 9.

For that one accomplishment: still being a Div I Head Coach after that 8-year record, I agree that is amazing. Rare in Div I. But to me that's not something I wish him to be known for. I'd rather he be known as the guy who put Rice on the map and served notice to the nation that Rice football will compete with AND CAN AND DOES BEAT anyone, anytime, anywhere, so watch out. Like TCU, like Boise, etc...

Yes there are other things to fix. Looks like JK is taking away some of the endless excuses piece by piece, with EZF phase 1 and finances, etc... In the meantime, I'd like DBD to do what Wayne Graham did BEFORE he got the facilities, etc... I realize some here find that unrealistic, as has been the case for 30 or 40 or whatever number of years you wish here at Rice. But MANY do not. It's time to change our perspective and dare to be great, not just okay.

We've been waiting 8 years for DBD to succeed at this. It is still, after 8 years, really difficult to define exactly what he has accomplished in REAL terms here during his long tenure. (Rehashed in innumerable threads.)

That's just the way it is at the moment. I do agree with those who feel that next season can help us really see finally what he is capable of, and I want to pressure him to SUCCEED and EXCEED the level we are at, whatever that really is. I am uncertain if he can or will do that for us, which still troubles me and others who consider him suspect going into year 9.

Many advocates appear to not want to push to the transformative level. They appear happy with a plateau or slight nuances of improvement that further muddle the picture. Whether they will be satisfied with further regression remains to be seen. The only ones whose opinions really matter are JK, Leebron and the BOT. We're just fans on a message board blowing off steam, which is the purpose of message boards, after all.

Maybe if he was more willing to take the advice of ruowls, Ham and Owl 69, etc... and played a more exciting style of football, I wouldn't be as hard on him, but his games overall are excruciating far too often, even when he wins against the bottom-dwelling opponents. It's my school, so I follow its athletics. Had Rice not had Div I athletics, including football, I would not have matriculated here.

I read posts like yours as being the ones satisfied with mediocrity. I am certainly not.
01-13-2015 02:58 AM
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Post: #28
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 01:34 AM)KTOWL Wrote:  we have to accept that Fresno State was a bad team. One of the worst we played all season. No QB, No offense, etc.
The game prior to Fresno State was La Tech. (76-31) Not sure why we did not show up on a mission given this game would get us to the conference game.

we play well against the weaker teams but that's not progress.

Amen, Amen, Amen, brother.
01-13-2015 03:00 AM
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Post: #29
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 02:52 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Well, that was a movie. in real life it's probably not a good idea to jump off a tall cliff into a raging river, especially if you can't swim. and taking on the Bolivian Army may seem romantic, but dead is dead.

assumptions that Bailiff has topped out are just that, assumptions. based on faith, I think.

if yall think all we need to do is put a new warm body in the coach's chair, go for it. it might work. and if it doesn't we can always find another one in four or five years and repeat the experiment.

basically, choose your poison.

goodOwl, your dad is absolutely right about conservative poker play. Ask him how the people who raise and go all in willy nilly fare. T he best find the right time and place - it's called selective aggresion. To quote Kenny Rogers, you have to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold them. i think some of yall are in a big hurry to fold, whenit is tme to hold.

1. OO, How many years of similar performances from DBD is enough for you...or can it just continue endlessly and you're okay with it? You have 8 years of data to parse to find your answer. Yes we're keeping him this year. I agree he's earned a reprieve from being canned. But I disagree he's earned a reprieve from being expected to perform better.

2. We all agree DBD was at the time he was hired 8 years ago about the best we could do when. We didn't have a ton of choices, and most of them amounted to the warm body we have now. I believe you said you wanted Coker, but I may have you confused with someone else.

We had a different AD, and a different BOT as well, which I believe is significant to the conversation of what do we do now. You can try to mis-characterize the position, but I will correct you and say that Rice's choices today for a head Football Coach would be somewhat better than they were 8 years ago. You can of course keep your opinion that they would be the same, but I and others would disagree.

I think we have moved beyond the "warm body" level which is what we have now. When the time comes we all can thank the DBD for that, however painful it has been, and wish him well. Along with the different BOT, JK as AD, and the EZF Phase 1, I think we'd be in better shape today if for some reason DBD decided to relieve us from his services. And I think we'd be happier with our choices.

3. Thing about the Kenny Rogers song "The Gambler" is he makes some errors in the lyric. Any skilled player knows you HAVE to count your money constantly when you're sitting at the table, as you can be very vulnerable to losing if you don't know EXACTLY what you have at any given time--and you have to kn ow exactly what all the other players have as well. I know it's a lot to keep track of, but you have to do it if you are playing the game to win, not just to enjoy your time at the table as a tourist. After 8 years here at Rice, going into year 9 with him, none of us, not even JK knows what we really have in DBD and that leaves Rice vulnerable. "When the dealin's done" will be too late in the game of College Football today. Ask the P5.
01-13-2015 03:19 AM
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Post: #30
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 02:52 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Well, that was a movie. in real life it's probably not a good idea to jump off a tall cliff into a raging river, especially if you can't swim. and taking on the Bolivian Army may seem romantic, but dead is dead.

If you read my post, you will see I acknowledged it was a movie. But if it had been real life, the choice was certain death against a better armed posse of overwhelming numbers or jump into a river off a cliff where it might be deep enough and you have a better chance to survive. Chance to survive beats certain death= they did the right thing.

They ttok on the Bolivian posse at the end because they were going to die and were cornered. The only way was to shoot their way out and at least take some of them with them, with the very small possibility of slipping through somehow. Staying in the house was again certain death. And again, small chance of life beats certain death. They made the right choice again.


(01-13-2015 02:52 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  assumptions that Bailiff has topped out are just that, assumptions. based on faith, I think.

You're welcome to think your opinion. My opinion is that based on 8 years of data, things are too iffy and erratic with DBD, and the wins he has have been against the worst of the teams he's faced. The two bowl wins were against bad teams. Lucky for him, and good for Rice as far as technical bowl wins which we can point to, but come on. Let's not pretend the teams we beat (AF, Fresno, even Western) were even close to average bowl teams either year. That tells me keep DBD on a very short leash and be ready to cut bait if/when he drops again.


(01-13-2015 02:52 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  goodOwl, your dad is absolutely right about conservative poker play. Ask him how the people who raise and go all in willy nilly fare. T he best find the right time and place - it's called selective aggresion. To quote Kenny Rogers, you have to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold them. i think some of yall are in a big hurry to fold, whenit is tme to hold.

On the contrary, some of us-all are counting what we have the best we can and ready to raise.

Did you forget that in tournament poker the antes keep on rising, so players are forced not to sit and be patient for too long, lest they fall further behind the leaders? They are forced to play when they may not have a shot at the best hand. They have to be clever with their scheme, and sometimes have to play contrary to the same way the others at the table are playing in order to leap ahead by stealing pots (games) that the odds say they shouldn't be able to. That's what can transform a player with a short stack into a leader, and in tournament play, while you have to pick your moments, you still DO have to pick moments and not sit forever.

You can relax on the dramatics. No one's going all-in willy-nilly. Actually, the ones going all in willy-nilly are the ones who appear to advocate for keeping him seemingly no matter what he does. After 8 years going into 9, that sure seems long enough to not be called "in a hurry", and selective enough a time to wait for a little aggression.

Let's see what happens next year. I think it will be anywhere from 6-6 to the same as this year, but could plausibly be 11-1 or 12-0 because of the schedule. I'll root for the latter, but I won't put a dime on DBD. As recently as his last 3 games, he's just to unreliable after 8 years of that to bet on for me.
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2015 04:38 AM by GoodOwl.)
01-13-2015 04:11 AM
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Post: #31
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 01:34 AM)KTOWL Wrote:  
(01-11-2015 11:37 PM)Antarius Wrote:  The position that I understand Rick and OO to be taking is that progress may not be as fast as we would like, but it is 1. happening 2. if we were to replace Bailiff with someone else, would they be able to achieve more? Truth is, we don't know the answer to #2. And if we were to consider a replacement, who would it be? MBB was so bad under the last two years of Braun that the argument could be made that anyone would be an improvement, and if not, at least a change. MBB needed transformation. FB could use either at this point.

San Diego fired Schottenheimer after a 14-2 season. They proceeded to never hit that win total again.

We showed up against Fresno like a team on a mission. Never have I seen Rice under Bailiff tackle so well and come out of the tunnel 100% ready to play. Granted, Fresno isn't Oregon, but still, based on this game we know that it is possible for us to play at that level. Next season is a big year and I think that will tell us exactly how far we can go in the future.
I realize Fresno State is your last point of reference because is the last game played and we won therefore we want to feel good by using that game as a point of reference however we have to accept that Fresno State was a bad team. One of the worst we played all season. No QB, No offense, etc.
The game prior to Fresno State was La Tech. (76-31) Not sure why we did not show up on a mission given this game would get us to the conference game.

we play well against the weaker teams but that's not progress.

Thank you. I know reality hurts for some, but the above post does state reality. Over our "unprecedented" run of the last 3 seasons we have won just one single game against a team ranked ahead of us entering the game, and none ranked in the Top 50....and over 80% of those wins were against down programs ranked in the bottom quartile of the FBS division (with almost all those victories over the past 3 years coming against teams ranked outside the Top 75). Also, aside from that Marshall victory in last year's championship game, we have gotten blown out by every team we've played ranked ahead of us.

So, let's put our progress in perspective. Yes, it's a significant step up from being the bottom-feeding laughing stock we were for much of the last 4 decades....but the level of progress has only been to the point of respectability, and not much more (and largely due to our watered-down schedule); certainly not on a national level. The perception of Rice football hasn't changed much despite our recent run of racking of 7+ wins against the worst in college football.
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2015 08:06 AM by waltgreenberg.)
01-13-2015 07:16 AM
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Post: #32
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
GoodOwl, in post 29 you say you disagree that DB has earned a reprieve from being expected to do better. disagre with with who? Not me. Never said that, implied that, suggested that.

ems silly to keep arguing over movies and songs, but the truth is I agree h
Wholeheartedly with you about Kenny's song. hate it, and yes, the only part he got right is that sometimes you hold 'em, and sometimes you fold 'em, which odddly enough, is the only part I quoted. i just think you want us to fold on DB when we probably should be holding. Let 's play the hand out, just as if it was up to either of us.

a wise man once said, look before to leap. another wise man said, He who hestitates is lost. contridictory, but does that mean one is an idiot? N o, it means that sometimes caution is called for, sometimes boldness.

i understand some want more, faster. wanting it and getting it are two different things,
01-13-2015 10:16 AM
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Post: #33
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
Here's my approach.

1) Keep DB around as long as he shows progress.
2) Sign him to rollover contracts with minimal buyouts, both ways.
3) If someone hires him away, that will be because he has continued to improve the program, and our pool of replacements will be a lot more appealing than it was when we hired TG or DB.
4) If he cannot continue to improve, then at some point the risk of change is worth it.

My fear is that the incremental pace of improvement has been so slow that the P5 window has come and gone. I'm not sure that we weren't in such bad shape that transformative change was beyond the realm of possibility. Maybe we just need to accept what we have.

At this point, I think transformative change is way more possible in basketball (and probably has been, for decades). If we get basketball to where baseball is (roughly, a perennial Sweet-16), and continue incremental change in football, and keep baseball where it is, and do something about marketing, we could be attractive to the P5's in 8-10 years. Then we just hope that there is a window open when we get there.
01-13-2015 12:04 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 12:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Here's my approach.

1) Keep DB around as long as he shows progress.
2) Sign him to rollover contracts with minimal buyouts, both ways.
3) If someone hires him away, that will be because he has continued to improve the program, and our pool of replacements will be a lot more appealing than it was when we hired TG or DB.
4) If he cannot continue to improve, then at some point the risk of change is worth it.

My fear is that the incremental pace of improvement has been so slow that the P5 window has come and gone. I'm not sure that we weren't in such bad shape that transformative change was beyond the realm of possibility. Maybe we just need to accept what we have.

At this point, I think transformative change is way more possible in basketball (and probably has been, for decades). If we get basketball to where baseball is (roughly, a perennial Sweet-16), and continue incremental change in football, and keep baseball where it is, and do something about marketing, we could be attractive to the P5's in 8-10 years. Then we just hope that there is a window open when we get there.

Couldn't agree more.

I think the focus of our athletic department, at the moment, is best spent elsewhere. The time and energy that it would take to go through a coaching search is just not worth it, IMO. I think continuing to push for facilities upgrades across campus, replacing our WBB coach, and revamping the athletic department (especially marketing) all take precedent over putting forth any effort to replace our current head coach.

Talk to me at the end of next year and I could very well have another opinion. I had my pitch fork read in the middle of the 2012 season, but put it away for a while after I felt like the ship had been righted.
01-13-2015 12:10 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 12:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Here's my approach.

1) Keep DB around as long as he shows progress.
2) Sign him to rollover contracts with minimal buyouts, both ways.
3) If someone hires him away, that will be because he has continued to improve the program, and our pool of replacements will be a lot more appealing than it was when we hired TG or DB.
4) If he cannot continue to improve, then at some point the risk of change is worth it.

My fear is that the incremental pace of improvement has been so slow that the P5 window has come and gone. I'm not sure that we weren't in such bad shape that transformative change was beyond the realm of possibility. Maybe we just need to accept what we have.

At this point, I think transformative change is way more possible in basketball (and probably has been, for decades). If we get basketball to where baseball is (roughly, a perennial Sweet-16), and continue incremental change in football, and keep baseball where it is, and do something about marketing, we could be attractive to the P5's in 8-10 years. Then we just hope that there is a window open when we get there.

Pretty much spot on
01-13-2015 01:15 PM
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Antarius Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 01:34 AM)KTOWL Wrote:  I realize Fresno State is your last point of reference because is the last game played and we won therefore we want to feel good by using that game as a point of reference however we have to accept that Fresno State was a bad team. One of the worst we played all season. No QB, No offense, etc.
The game prior to Fresno State was La Tech. (76-31) Not sure why we did not show up on a mission given this game would get us to the conference game.

we play well against the weaker teams but that's not progress.

No one is disagreeing that Fresno wasn't a great team. We also all agree that we have improved to the point that we consistently beat the teams we should beat. That said, I haven't seen Rice so thoroughly dominate a team we should have beaten since the 77-20 shellacking Chase/JD/Thor laid on UNT in 2008. Heck, this bowl game was EVEN more impressive because our defense finally looked dangerous. This is the first time where we have looked semi-sustainable - we went from 10 wins last year, 8 this year and most of us expect 10+ next year. Not something we are used to.

I might be/have been DBs harshest critic here over the years, so keep that in mind. We have a long way to go, but we have improved a lot from the dark days of 2009-2011. At some point, Dr. K will evaluate the program and decide how to proceed, but right now trying to make a change isn't the best course of action. Build the EZF, keep recruiting, keep sending players to the NFL, keep winning - that's what we need now.

EDIT: Not saying that things are great and all is perfect. Still unsure about the co-offensive coordinator thing. We need to start beating teams in the top 50 soon. We have a ways to go still
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2015 01:30 PM by Antarius.)
01-13-2015 01:27 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
agree 100% with Owl69etc. Agree with Antarius.

hey, anyone, anytime,anyplace? Fresno is someone, Christmas eve is sometime, Hawaii is a place. we came, we saw, we beat them. what's the problem? we were barely favored, so in the minds of the great unwashed public, we beat somebody. Had a TCU alum tell me he enjoyed the game.
01-13-2015 04:18 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 04:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  agree 100% with Owl69etc. Agree with Antarius.

hey, anyone, anytime,anyplace? Fresno is someone, Christmas eve is sometime, Hawaii is a place. we came, we saw, we beat them. what's the problem? we were barely favored, so in the minds of the great unwashed public, we beat somebody. Had a TCU alum tell me he enjoyed the game.

Good grief. Keep on believing what you want to believe.
01-13-2015 04:21 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 10:16 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  GoodOwl, in post 29 you say you disagree that DB has earned a reprieve from being expected to do better. disagre with with who? Not me. Never said that, implied that, suggested that.

Ok, OO, I hear you. You never said DBD has earned any reprieve from being expected to do better. Others have suggested expecting better than what we have done might be unreasonable, but you are not one of them. Therefore, if you see posts expecting us to do better, you would be expected not to contradict them. I expect us to do better. You expect us to do better--or at least be the same? Or if you also expect us to do better then we are now we are differing only in degree? Either way, that is progress, which we need yesterday in our situation. So end of that one.


(01-13-2015 10:16 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  i just think you want us to fold on DB when we probably should be holding. Let 's play the hand out, just as if it was up to either of us.

I admit I wonder what the results would be if JK had a clean slate to work with in hiring his type of football coach the way he did in basketball. I believe most of us are impressed with both his choice of Rhoades in basketball and how he went about it. Sure it could backfire or implode, but I believe we'll know what we have in Rhoades a lot sooner than 8 years. I do not think JK would have hired DBD from the get-go. Inheriting an incumbent the way he did as an AD outsider made football more complicated for him. I would like JK to get his chance to hire a football coach at Rice at some point, and be around to see how he does.

I have stated I don't think the man coaches a very entertaining brand of football game that draws new fans in. Many other posters have alluded to the same or have outright stated it over the years. It appears to be a recurring theme that has not been adequately addressed. Since fan interest is a factor in the equation, it follows that might be an issue if we are in need of growing our fan base and interest beyond the die-hards who might take time to post on a board, or in comments on national sites and regularly follow games win or lose. Many people will watch football in general whether they have a connection to the teams playing or not. But in those cases, most want to be entertained. Maybe not all require being entertained, just most.

The main reason we haven't/have difficulty changing is his onerous contract situation. The timing of the JK hire and winning CUSA last year also exacerbated the uncertainty and arguably forced the hand of a brand-new outsider AD. I agree with Owl 69- make it easier for either party to walk away in the future and focus on performance.

Pretending that DBD is the only coach who could have performed over the last 8 years the way he has is unreasonable to me. Sure, there are some Jerry Berndts out there, but there are also better coaches as well. Pretending there are not is unreasonable to me. For instance, IMO I think a team coached by ruowls could have done at least as well over the period, and might have been more entertaining to watch as well, but we'll never know. Rice today under Leebron and a Tudor-chaired BOT is light years ahead of where we we stuck under Rupp and the previous BOT.

Remember, DBDs personality and style were an unfortunate and direct reaction to the contract snubbing by TG. We felt raped and embarrassed. Particularly, CDC personally looked bad so he first sought someone who would not act that way towards us again as the top priority: football coaching was a close second. We got the first in spades with DBD. TG was a real jolt to Rice in many ways--some good, some bad, but he did start the shake-up out of our football stupor that we needed at that time, and that only an outsider with a different attitude could have provided, and for that I am grateful. And he's proven he's a good, solid Top25 football coach. Maybe not the nicest guy, but he clearly can do the job well. And he has stuck around AZ State for awhile, though there are few dream jobs left at this point. (Still, he can dream?)

(01-13-2015 10:16 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  i understand some want more, faster. wanting it and getting it are two different things,

You are exactly correct. Wanting things to get better does not require any action. Getting it requires taking action: either DBD changing his results, however he chooses to accomplish that, or Rice moving on without him. For Rice to benefit from keeping DBD around he has to keep doing things he has not done: The easy ones are behind him, and merely repeating them only helps marginally sometimes. Of course, IMO if he slips back below .500 season the next few years, he should be shown the door.

Now it's time for him to show if he has what it takes to accomplish the hard ones-the ones that can start to make a real difference for Rice football:
1. signature wins--plural,
2. beating teams he's not expected to beat at least half the time we get an opportunity to play them,
3. regularly beating the best teams in CUSA along with the worst,
4. using the winning of the CUSA championship to play and beat a power team in a bowl or
5. Playing in and winning in the access bowl,
6. one loss seasons,
7. undefeated season here and there.
8. Top 1 G5 team year in, year out- number one candidate for a call-up.

Other teams have done their equivalents, why can't Rice? Maybe we could do all those and still be forever stuck in CUSA because of non-filed related issues. I trust JK and BOT and Leebron are committed to erasing those deficits. At least we could to point to accomplishments people nationally would recognize as significant like with Boise and TCU. And we are located in Houston, TX, not ideal geographically, but certainly heaps better than Boise, ID.

The list hasn't changed much over the years. Wayne did it to get Rice baseball the recognition of where it is today. Rhoades needs to do the basketball equivalent to make his mark.
01-13-2015 04:26 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Transformation vs Incrementalism
(01-13-2015 04:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  agree 100% with Owl69etc. Agree with Antarius.

hey, anyone, anytime,anyplace? Fresno is someone, Christmas eve is sometime, Hawaii is a place. we came, we saw, we beat them. what's the problem? we were barely favored, so in the minds of the great unwashed public, we beat somebody. Had a TCU alum tell me he enjoyed the game.

(01-13-2015 04:21 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Good grief. Keep on believing what you want to believe.

well, if you wish to go that way....hey, anyone, anytime,anyplace? LA Tech is someone, Nov 29, 2014 is sometime, Ruston, LA is a place. we came, we saw, we got historically cremated by them.

And:

Marshall is someone, Nov 15, 2014 is sometime, Huntington, WV is a place. we came, we saw, we got smacked by them.

what's the problem? I'm not even talking about our two opportunity games against ND and A&M? in the minds of the great unwashed public, we're the same old Rice.
01-13-2015 04:36 PM
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