Well looking at tonight's game..
Oregon obviously clinched spot in the Rose Bowl...

Arizona going to be sweating pretty good I think heading into Sunday. They were #7- with top 10 in the access bowls or playoff. 2 teams behind them don't play- and Arizona figures to fall behind them(Mich St and Miss St). The other team is Kansas St who of course plays Baylor.

The first teams out are Ole Miss(DNP), Wisconsin(Ohio St), and Georgia(DNP). Think Arizona quite frankly huge Ohio St fans right now- a Wisconsin win and Ohio St probably stays in top 10 and in access bowls.

right now my projection for the 12 spots
1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 TCU
4 Florida St
5 Ohio St
6 Baylor
7 Mich St
8 Miss St
9 Ole Miss
10 Wisconsin
11 Ga Tech
12 Boise St

Think the close battle will be between Arizona and Ole Miss for the final spot.

(12-06-2014 02:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well looking at tonight's game..
Oregon obviously clinched spot in the Rose Bowl...

Arizona going to be sweating pretty good I think heading into Sunday. They were #7- with top 10 in the access bowls or playoff. 2 teams behind them don't play- and Arizona figures to fall behind them(Mich St and Miss St). The other team is Kansas St who of course plays Baylor.

The first teams out are Ole Miss(DNP), Wisconsin(Ohio St), and Georgia(DNP). Think Arizona quite frankly huge Ohio St fans right now- a Wisconsin win and Ohio St probably stays in top 10 and in access bowls.

right now my projection for the 12 spots
1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 TCU
4 Florida St
5 Ohio St
6 Baylor
7 Mich St
8 Miss St
9 Ole Miss
10 Wisconsin
11 Ga Tech
12 Boise St

Think the close battle will be between Arizona and Ole Miss for the final spot.

Of course, Oregon could still end up in the Sugar Bowl if Alabama loses or wins unimpressively. You list is assuming wins by all of the teams currently in the top four, so wouldn't that pretty much drop Wisconsin and Georgia Tech out of it or are you projecting that qualifying for a CCG gets you in an access bowl?

I would also have the same teams in the twelve spots but in a different order.

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Baylor

Of course, this means I am predicting wins by Wisconsin and Georgia Tech. but FSU and OSU would each still have a spot in the access bowls.

(12-06-2014 07:55 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 02:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well looking at tonight's game..
Oregon obviously clinched spot in the Rose Bowl...

Arizona going to be sweating pretty good I think heading into Sunday. They were #7- with top 10 in the access bowls or playoff. 2 teams behind them don't play- and Arizona figures to fall behind them(Mich St and Miss St). The other team is Kansas St who of course plays Baylor.

The first teams out are Ole Miss(DNP), Wisconsin(Ohio St), and Georgia(DNP). Think Arizona Ole Miss quite frankly huge Ohio St fans right now- a Wisconsin win and Ohio St probably stays in top 10 and in access bowls.

right now my projection for the 12 spots
1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 TCU
4 Florida St
5 Ohio St
6 Baylor
7 Mich St
8 Miss St
9 Ole Miss
10 Wisconsin
11 Ga Tech
12 Boise St

Think the close battle will be between Arizona and Ole Miss for the final spot.

Of course, Oregon could still end up in the Sugar Bowl if Alabama loses or wins unimpressively.

That would make Oregon #1. The #1 is going to get the "home game", to the extent possible. So Oregon makes the short trip to the Rose Bowl.

Quote: You list is assuming wins by all of the teams currently in the top four, so wouldn't that pretty much drop Wisconsin and Georgia Tech out of it or are you projecting that qualifying for a CCG gets you in an access bowl?

Dunno exactly what Stever is saying, but Georgia Tech is pretty much a lock for the Orange Bowl. Either they win and go as ACC champs, or they lose and they're still the second-highest-ranking ACC team.

Wisconsin needs to win-to-get-in, I think. I don't see how even losing a heartbreaker against an OSU team who's down to their 3rd QB and lost to VT gets Wisconsin into the top 10 or 11.

So I think Oregon just put Ole Miss into an Access Bowl. Revise your bowl projections accordingly--that opens the Independence Bowl (With Alabama, Miss St, and Ole Miss in the CFP, SEC is short one) and means that PAC has an at-large to send somewhere (probably Armed Forces).

Edit: Fixed it for ya, Stever.

Mea culpa, John. I shouldn't post when I have been up all night at my part time job. Not enough brain cells functioning properly. You are obviously correct on both counts. Oregon would get the Rose Bowl and if Florida State wins, Georgia Tech would replace them.

If Florida State doesn't make the playoff after going undefeated 2 years in a row there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans.

(12-06-2014 11:20 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  If Florida State doesn't make the playoff after going undefeated 2 years in a row there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans.

I don't think that there is any chance of the committee dropping FSU out of the top 4 unless they lose to Georgia Tech.

That was the basic argument I was making months ago in the ECU vs MArshall debate. Snubbing an unbeaten Marshall would let the committee make their point about scheduling without causing the uproar that snubbing even an unbeaten Baylor would.

Dropping FSU to #2 and #3 and #4 sends that same message, without any real uproar (unless FSU gets sent to the Rose Bowl or something.)

(12-06-2014 11:32 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 11:20 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  If Florida State doesn't make the playoff after going undefeated 2 years in a row there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans.

I don't think that there is any chance of the committee dropping FSU out of the top 4 unless they lose to Georgia Tech.

That was the basic argument I was making months ago in the ECU vs MArshall debate. Snubbing an unbeaten Marshall would let the committee make their point about scheduling without causing the uproar that snubbing even an unbeaten Baylor would.

Dropping FSU to #2 and #3 and #4 sends that same message, without any real uproar (unless FSU gets sent to the Rose Bowl or something.)

It is nice to see that someone else can see that FSU isn't at danger of dropping out if they win today.

Personally, I don't think it is about scheduling. FSU doesn't really have a bad SoS. Their problem was that they have consistently shown they are a very slow starting team. That hasn't caused them losses but now they are going up against the best in the country. They could get caught if they get a slow start in one of these games.

For me this is all about the Committee manufacturing the match ups. Alabama vs FSU means we don't get two southern teams in the National Championship. It also means that FSU, the undefeated defending champions will have a better chance to get their fans to the Sugar Bowl than they would at the Rose Bowl. ESPN is part of that Committee. They want strong crowds for TV. They paid big bucks for these playoff television rights. The rest of the Committee members don't want to be held responsible for setting up a poor game. Sending FSU out to the Rose Bowl to take on Oregon could really blow up in their face.

They saw when TCU went out to the Rose Bowl that they were able to fill half that stadium with purple wearing fans. That is what was needed.

(12-06-2014 11:32 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Dropping FSU to #2 and #3 and #4 sends that same message, without any real uproar (unless FSU gets sent to the Rose Bowl or something.)

I suspect that one big reason FSU has had the 2-3-4 drop is that some committee members' opinions of their team are affected by their opinions about Jameis Winston. But they'd never admit that.

I suspect it's not just losing to Oregon that will kill Arizona's chances, but losing big. By hammering the 'Cats to insure a favorable seed for themselves, the Ducks may have cost their conference an NY6 slot, despite being arguably the second strongest conference. What will it say, and how will the PAC react, if they get one team in and the B1G gets three?

(12-06-2014 02:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well looking at tonight's game..
Oregon obviously clinched spot in the Rose Bowl...

Arizona going to be sweating pretty good I think heading into Sunday. They were #7- with top 10 in the access bowls or playoff. 2 teams behind them don't play- and Arizona figures to fall behind them(Mich St and Miss St). The other team is Kansas St who of course plays Baylor.

The first teams out are Ole Miss(DNP), Wisconsin(Ohio St), and Georgia(DNP). Think Arizona quite frankly huge Ohio St fans right now- a Wisconsin win and Ohio St probably stays in top 10 and in access bowls.

right now my projection for the 12 spots
1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 TCU
4 Florida St
5 Ohio St
6 Baylor
7 Mich St
8 Miss St
9 Ole Miss
10 Wisconsin
11 Ga Tech
12 Boise St

Think the close battle will be between Arizona and Ole Miss for the final spot.

I think Arizona is out.

The top 8 all beat them out. Georgia Tech either beats them out or gets the Orange Bowl if FSU makes the playoffs. The G5 champ gets in. I'm pretty certain that loss puts a damper on their best win. Ole Miss beats them out among the 3 loss teams. So if Wisconsin beats Ohio St. or KSU beats Baylor they are out or even if Missouri beats Alabama. Some chance even Georgia passes them as bad as they lost.

TCU made a positive statement in their effort to hold onto a top 4 spot.

Great line from Gary Patterson after their game today:

Quote:Andy Staples
@Andy_Staples

Patterson asked what it's like to have no control now. "It's like going home. You just say 'Yes, Dear.'"

What I thought was funny were all the posters in the TCU crowd stating they are the Big 12 champions. Sorry, but you aren't if Baylor wins tonight.

(12-06-2014 05:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  What I thought was funny were all the posters in the TCU crowd stating they are the Big 12 champions. Sorry, but you aren't if Baylor wins tonight.

1 True Champion! Well, unless there are 2, then I guess they are true co-champions.

(12-06-2014 05:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  What I thought was funny were all the posters in the TCU crowd stating they are the Big 12 champions. Sorry, but you aren't if Baylor wins tonight.

Yeah, but given that Bama is comfortably ahead, TCU is probably in and Baylor is probably SOL unless both FSU and OSU lose tonight.

(12-06-2014 05:40 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 05:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  What I thought was funny were all the posters in the TCU crowd stating they are the Big 12 champions. Sorry, but you aren't if Baylor wins tonight.

Yeah, but given that Bama is comfortably ahead, TCU is probably in and Baylor is probably SOL unless both FSU and OSU lose tonight.

I will reserve comment until we see what Baylor does against Kansas State. The TCU blowout makes it more difficult but what if Baylor comfortably beats 9th ranked Kansas State in what is basically a non-official Big 12 championship game.

I am not saying a strong showing will jump Baylor into TCU's spot but the fact that a strong showing might Not make that happen, well that is ammunition for the argument that the Big 12 needs a real Championship game. By most standards if Baylor beats Kansas State tonight, they Should get that spot ahead of TCU due to head to head.

(12-06-2014 05:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  What I thought was funny were all the posters in the TCU crowd stating they are the Big 12 champions. Sorry, but you aren't if Baylor wins tonight.

TCU is a Big 12 Co-champion. After the big 12 comissioner went on to the field and awarded TCU a conference championship trophy.

(12-06-2014 05:54 PM)Planks Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 05:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  What I thought was funny were all the posters in the TCU crowd stating they are the Big 12 champions. Sorry, but you aren't if Baylor wins tonight.

TCU is a Big 12 Co-champion. After the big 12 comissioner went on to the field and awarded TCU a conference championship trophy.

Then he made it an even bigger joke. Baylor and Kansas State havnt even played. He basically said that Baylor beating TCU means nothing, even to the Big 12. What a sell out. I get it, you are a TCU fan so you are extremely biased in your perspective of this.

Co-Champion does not equal "One True Champion" no matter how the conference tries to spin it.

How about those Buckeyes. Wow.

(12-06-2014 09:43 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  How about those Buckeyes. Wow.

Getting routed by Ohio State's third string QB should earn Wisconsin an award for most embarrassing performance of the week.